tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-41429886747039548022024-03-11T07:36:14.784-07:00THE HOCKEY SCHTICK<i>If you can't explain the 'pause', you can't explain the cause...</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2971125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-91058119693326036122018-05-15T23:46:00.001-07:002018-05-15T23:46:18.723-07:00Physicist Dr. Fred Singer: The Sea Is Rising, but Not Because of Climate Change<div class="clearfix byline-wrap" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px 0px 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
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<i>There is nothing we can do about it, except to build dikes and sea walls a little bit higher.</i></h2>
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<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 27px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By</span> <div class="author hasMenu" data-scrim="{"type":"author","header":"Fred Singer","subhead":"The Wall Street Journal","list":[]}" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 27px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span itemprop="name" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Fred Singer</span></div>
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<time class="timestamp" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #666666; display: block; font-family: Retina; font-size: 14px; line-height: 2.2rem; margin: 0px 0px 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">May 15, 2018 6:27 p.m. ET THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</time><div class="comments-count-container" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; display: inline-block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px; top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a class="comments_header" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sea-is-rising-but-not-because-of-climate-change-1526423254?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1#comments_sector" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; font-family: Retina; font-size: 14px; line-height: 2.2rem; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="comments_count_icon" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url("data:image/png; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 14px 14px; border: 0px; float: left; height: 14px; margin: 3px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 14px;"></span>41 <span class="comments-count-word" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">COMMENTS</span></a></div>
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Of all known and imagined consequences of climate change, many people fear sea-level rise most. But efforts to determine what causes seas to rise are marred by poor data and disagreements about methodology. The noted oceanographer Walter Munk referred to sea-level rise as an “enigma”; it has also been called a riddle and a puzzle.</div>
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It is generally thought that sea-level rise accelerates mainly by thermal expansion of sea water, the so-called steric component. But by studying a very short time interval, it is possible to sidestep most of the complications, like “isostatic adjustment” of the shoreline (as continents rise after the overlying ice has melted) and “subsidence” of the shoreline (as ground water and minerals are extracted).</div>
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I chose to assess the sea-level trend from 1915-45, when a genuine, independently confirmed warming of approximately 0.5 degree Celsius occurred. I note particularly that sea-level rise is not affected by the warming; it continues at the same rate, 1.8 millimeters a year, according to a 1990 review by Andrew S. Trupin and John Wahr. I therefore conclude—contrary to the general wisdom—that the temperature of sea water has no direct effect on sea-level rise. That means neither does the atmospheric content of carbon dioxide.</div>
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This conclusion is worth highlighting: It shows that sea-level rise does not depend on the use of fossil fuels. The evidence should allay fear that the release of additional CO2 will increase sea-level rise.</div>
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But there is also good data showing sea levels are in fact rising at an accelerating rate. The trend has been measured by a network of tidal gauges, many of which have been collecting data for over a century.</div>
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The cause of the trend is a puzzle. Physics demands that water expand as its temperature increases. But to keep the rate of rise constant, as observed, expansion of sea water evidently must be offset by something else. What could that be? I conclude that it must be ice accumulation, through evaporation of ocean water, and subsequent precipitation turning into ice. Evidence suggests that accumulation of ice on the Antarctic continent has been offsetting the steric effect for at least several centuries.</div>
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It is difficult to explain why evaporation of seawater produces approximately 100% cancellation of expansion. My method of analysis considers two related physical phenomena: thermal expansion of water and evaporation of water molecules. But if evaporation offsets thermal expansion, the net effect is of course close to zero. What then is the real cause of sea-level rise of 1 to 2 millimeters a year?</div>
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Melting of glaciers and ice sheets adds water to the ocean and causes sea levels to rise. (Recall though that the melting of floating sea ice adds no water to the oceans, and hence does not affect the sea level.) After the rapid melting away of northern ice sheets, the slow melting of Antarctic ice at the periphery of the continent may be the main cause of current sea-level rise.</div>
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All this, because it is much warmer now than 12,000 years ago, at the end of the most recent glaciation. Yet there is little heat available in the Antarctic to support melting.</div>
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We can see melting happening right now at the Ross Ice Shelf of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Geologists have tracked Ross’s slow disappearance, and glaciologist Robert Bindschadler predicts the ice shelf will melt completely within about 7,000 years, gradually raising the sea level as it goes.</div>
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Of course, a lot can happen in 7,000 years. The onset of a new glaciation could cause the sea level to stop rising. It could even fall 400 feet, to the level at the last glaciation maximum 18,000 years ago.</div>
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Currently, sea-level rise does not seem to depend on ocean temperature, and certainly not on CO2. We can expect the sea to continue rising at about the present rate for the foreseeable future. By 2100 the seas will rise another 6 inches or so—a far cry from Al Gore’s alarming numbers. There is nothing we can do about rising sea levels in the meantime. We’d better build dikes and sea walls a little bit higher.</div>
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<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mr. Singer is a professor emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia. He founded the Science and Environmental Policy Project and the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change.</em></div>
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Appeared in the May 16, 2018, print edition.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-25720743059104514012017-09-24T14:34:00.001-07:002017-09-24T14:34:07.465-07:00New Insights on the Physical Nature of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Deduced from an Empirical Planetary Temperature Model<h1 class="fulltext_h1heading margin-t-0" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 26px; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px !important; padding: 5px 0px 0px;">
New Insights on the Physical Nature of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Deduced from an Empirical Planetary Temperature Model</h1>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Ned Nikolov<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#corr" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;">*</a></span> and Karl Zeller</span></div>
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Ksubz LLC, 9401 Shoofly Lane, Wellington CO 80549, USA</div>
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<dd style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.6; margin-left: 180px;">Ned Nikolov<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="corr" name="corr" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;"></a><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />Ksubz LLC, 9401 Shoofly Lane<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />Wellington CO 80549, USA<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Tel:</span> 970-980-3303, 970-206-0700<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">E-mail:</span> ntconsulting@comcast.net</dd></dl>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Received date:</span> November 11, 2016; <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Accepted date:</span> February 06, 2017; <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Published date:</span> February 13, 2017</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Citation: </span>Nikolov N, Zeller K (2017) New Insights on the Physical Nature of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Deduced from an Empirical Planetary Temperature Model. Environ Pollut Climate Change 1:112.s</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Copyright:</span> © 2017 Nikolov N, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Visit for more related articles at</span> <a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/archive-environment-pollution-climate-change.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="Environment Pollution and Climate Change">Environment Pollution and Climate Change</a></div>
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Abstract</h4>
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A recent study has revealed that the Earth’s natural atmospheric greenhouse effect is around 90 K or about 2.7 times stronger than assumed for the past 40 years. A thermal enhancement of such a magnitude cannot be explained with the observed amount of outgoing infrared long-wave radiation absorbed by the atmosphere (i.e. ≈ 158 W m-2), thus requiring a re-examination of the underlying Greenhouse theory. We present here a new investigation into the physical nature of the atmospheric thermal effect using a novel empirical approach toward predicting the Global Mean Annual near-surface equilibrium Temperature (GMAT) of rocky planets with diverse atmospheres. Our method utilizes Dimensional Analysis (DA) applied to a vetted set of observed data from six celestial bodies representing a broad range of physical environments in our Solar System, i.e. Venus, Earth, the Moon, Mars, Titan (a moon of Saturn), and Triton (a moon of Neptune). Twelve relationships (models) suggested by DA are explored via non-linear regression analyses that involve dimensionless products comprised of solar irradiance, greenhouse-gas partial pressure/density and total atmospheric pressure/density as forcing variables, and two temperature ratios as dependent variables. One non-linear regression model is found to statistically outperform the rest by a wide margin. Our analysis revealed that GMATs of rocky planets with tangible atmospheres and a negligible geothermal surface heating can accurately be predicted over a broad range of conditions using only two forcing variables: top-of-the-atmosphere solar irradiance and total surface atmospheric pressure. The hereto discovered interplanetary pressure-temperature relationship is shown to be statistically robust while describing a smooth physical continuum without climatic tipping points. This continuum fully explains the recently discovered 90 K thermal effect of Earth’s atmosphere. The new model displays characteristics of an emergent macro-level thermodynamic relationship heretofore unbeknown to science that has important theoretical implications. A key entailment from the model is that the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ currently viewed as a radiative phenomenon is in fact an adiabatic (pressure-induced) thermal enhancement analogous to compression heating and independent of atmospheric composition. Consequently, the global down-welling long-wave flux presently assumed to drive Earth’s surface warming appears to be a product of the air temperature set by solar heating and atmospheric pressure. In other words, the so-called ‘greenhouse back radiation’ is globally a result of the atmospheric thermal effect rather than a cause for it. Our empirical model has also fundamental implications for the role of oceans, water vapour, and planetary albedo in global climate. Since produced by a rigorous attempt to describe planetary temperatures in the context of a cosmic continuum using an objective analysis of vetted observations from across the Solar System, these findings call for a paradigm shift in our understanding of the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ as a fundamental property of climate.</div>
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Keywords</h4>
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Greenhouse effect; Emergent model; Planetary temperature; Atmospheric pressure; Greenhouse gas; Mars temperature</div>
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Introduction</h4>
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In a recent study Volokin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>] demonstrated that the strength of Earth’s atmospheric <a href="https://www.omicsonline.com/greenhouse-effect/online-journals.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">Greenhouse Effect</a> (GE) is about 90 K instead of 33 K as presently assumed by most researchers e.g. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#2" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="2">2</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#7" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="7">7</a>]. The new estimate corrected a long-standing mathematical error in the application of the Stefan–Boltzmann (SB) radiation law to a sphere pertaining to Hölder’s inequality between integrals. Since the current greenhouse theory strives to explain GE solely through a retention (trapping) of outgoing long-wavelength (LW) radiation by atmospheric gases [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#2" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="2">2</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#5" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="5">5</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#7" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="7">7</a>- <a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#10" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="10">10</a>], a thermal enhancement of 90 K creates a logical conundrum, since satellite observations constrain the global atmospheric LW absorption to 155–158 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#11" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="11">11</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#13" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="13">13</a>]. Such a flux might only explain a surface warming up to 35 K. Hence, more than 60% of Earth’s 90 K <a href="http://www.conferenceseries.com/atmospheric-science.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">atmospheric</a> effect appears to remain inexplicable in the context of the current theory. Furthermore, satellite- and surface-based radiation measurements have shown [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#12" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="12">12</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#14" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="14">14</a>] that the lower troposphere emits 42-44% more radiation towards the surface (i.e., 341-346 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>) than the net shortwave flux delivered to the Earth-atmosphere system by the Sun (i.e., 240 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>). In other words, the lower troposphere contains significantly more kinetic energy than expected from solar heating alone, a conclusion also supported by the new 90 K GE estimate. A similar but more extreme situation is observed on Venus as well, where the atmospheric downwelling LW radiation near the surface (>15,000 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>) exceeds the total absorbed solar flux (65–150 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>) by a factor of 100 or more [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#6" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="6">6</a>]. The radiative greenhouse theory cannot explain this apparent paradox considering the fact that infrared-absorbing gases such as CO<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>, water vapor and methane only re-radiate available LW emissions and do not constitute significant heat storage or a net source of additional energy to the system. This raises a fundamental question about the origin of the observed energy surplus in the lower troposphere of terrestrial planets with respect to the solar input. The above inconsistencies between theory and observations prompted us to take a new look at the mechanisms controlling the atmospheric thermal effect.</div>
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We began our study with the premise that processes controlling the Global Mean Annual near-surface Temperature (GMAT) of <a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/earth-sciences-articles.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">Earth</a> are also responsible for creating the observed pattern of planetary temperatures across the Solar System. Thus, our working hypothesis was that a general physical model should exist, which accurately describes GMATs of planets using a common set of drivers. If so, then such a model would also reveal the forcing behind the atmospheric thermal effect.</div>
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Instead of examining existing mechanistic models such as 3-D GCMs, we decided to try an empirical approach not constrained by a particular physical theory. An important reason for this was the fact that current process-oriented climate models rely on numerous theoretical assumptions while utilizing planet-specific parameterizations of key processes such as vertical convection and cloud nucleation in order to simulate the surface thermal regime over a range of planetary environments [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#15" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="15">15</a>]. These empirical parameterizations oftentimes depend on detailed observations that are not typically available for planetary bodies other than Earth. Hence, our goal was to develop a simple yet robust planetary temperature model of high predictive power that does not require case-specific parameter adjustments while successfully describing the observed range of planetary temperatures across the Solar System.</div>
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Methods and Data</h4>
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In our model development we employed a ‘top-down’ empirical approach based on Dimensional Analysis (DA) of observed data from our Solar System. We chose DA as an analytic tool because of its ubiquitous past successes in solving complex problems of physics, engineering, mathematical biology, and biophysics [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#16" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="16">16</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#21" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="21">21</a>]. To our knowledge DA has not previously been applied to constructing predictive models of macro-level properties such as the average global temperature of a planet; thus, the following overview of this technique is warranted.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Dimensional analysis background</span></div>
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DA is a method for extracting physically meaningful relationships from empirical data [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#22" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="22">22</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#24" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="24">24</a>]. The goal of DA is to restructure a set of original variables deemed critical to describing a physical phenomenon into a smaller set of independent dimensionless products that may be combined into a dimensionally homogeneous model with predictive power. Dimensional homogeneity is a prerequisite for any robust physical relationship such as natural laws. DA distinguishes between measurement units and physical dimensions. For example, mass is a physical dimension that can be measured in gram, pound, metric ton etc.; time is another dimension measurable in seconds (s), hour (h), years, etc. While the physical dimension of a variable does not change, the units quantifying that variable may vary depending on the adopted measurement system.</div>
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Many physical variables and constants can be described in terms of four fundamental dimensions, i.e., mass [M], length [L], time [T], and absolute temperature [Θ]. For example, an energy flux commonly measured in W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> has a physical dimension [M T<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-3</span>] since 1 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>=1 J s<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>=1 (kg m2 s<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>) s<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>=kg s-3. Pressure may be reported in units of Pascal, bar, atm., PSI or Torr, but its physical dimension is always [M L<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> T<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>] because 1 Pa=1 N m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>=1 (kg m s<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>) m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>=1 kg m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> s<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>. Thinking in terms of physical dimensions rather than measurement units fosters a deeper understanding of the underlying physical reality. For instance, a comparison between the physical dimensions of <a href="https://www.omicsonline.com/renewable-energy/top-open-access-journals.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">energy</a> flux and pressure reveals that a flux is simply the product of pressure and the speed of moving particles [L T<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span>], i.e., [M T<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-3</span>]=[M L<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> T<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>] [L T<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span>]. Thus, a radiative flux FR (W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>) can be expressed in terms of photon pressure Pph (Pa) and the speed of light c (m s<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span>) as Fr=cPph. Since c is constant within a medium, varying the intensity of electromagnetic radiation in a given medium effectively means altering the pressure of photons. Thus, the solar radiation reaching Earth’s upper atmosphere exerts a pressure (force) of sufficient magnitude to perturb the orbits of communication satellites over time [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#25" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="25">25</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#26" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="26">26</a>].</div>
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The simplifying power of DA in model development stems from the Buckingham Pi Theorem [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#27" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="27">27</a>], which states that a problem involving n dimensioned xi variables, i.e.,</div>
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can be reformulated into a simpler relationship of (n-m) dimensionless π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> products derived from xi, i.e.,</div>
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where m is the number of fundamental dimensions comprising the original variables. This theorem determines the number of nondimensional π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> variables to be found in a set of products, but it does not prescribe the number of sets that could be generated from the original variables defining a particular problem. In other words, there might be, and oftentimes is more than one set of (n-m) dimensionless products to analyze. DA provides an objective method for constructing the sets of π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> variables employing simultaneous equations solved via either matrix inversion or substitution [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#22" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="22">22</a>].</div>
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The second step of DA (after the construction of dimensionless products) is to search for a functional relationship between the π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span>variables of each set using regression analysis. DA does not disclose the best function capable of describing the empirical data. It is the investigator’s responsibility to identify a suitable regression model based on prior knowledge of the phenomenon and a general expertise in the subject area. DA only guarantees that the final model (whatever its functional form) will be dimensionally homogeneous, hence it may qualify as a physically meaningful relationship provided that it (a) is not based on a simple polynomial fit; (b) has a small standard error; (c) displays high predictive skill over a broad range of input data; and (d) is statistically robust. The regression coefficients of the final model will also be dimensionless, and may reveal true constants of Nature by virtue of being independent of the units utilized to measure the forcing variables.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Selection of model variables</span></div>
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A planet’s GMAT depends on many factors. In this study, we focused on drivers that are remotely measurable and/or theoretically estimable. Based on the current state of knowledge we identified seven physical variables of potential relevance to the global surface temperature: 1) topof- the-atmosphere (TOA) solar irradiance (S); 2) mean planetary surface temperature in the absence of atmospheric greenhouse effect, hereto called a reference temperature (Tr); 3) near-surface partial pressure of atmospheric greenhouse gases (P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">gh</span>); 4) near-surface mass density of atmospheric greenhouse gases (ρ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">gh</span>); 5) total surface atmospheric pressure (P); 6) total surface atmospheric density (ρ); and 7) minimum air pressure required for the existence of a liquid solvent at the surface, hereto called a reference pressure (Pr). <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 1</span> lists the above variables along with their SI units and physical dimensions. Note that, in order to simplify the derivation of dimensionless products, pressure and density are represented in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 1</span> by the generic variables P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">x</span> and ρ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">x</span>, respectively. As explained below, the regression analysis following the construction of π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> variables explicitly distinguished between models involving partial pressure/density of greenhouse gases and those employing total atmospheric pressure/density at the surface. The planetary Bond albedo (α<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">p</span>) was omitted as a forcing variable in our DA despite its known effect on the surface energy budget, because it is already dimensionless and also partakes in the calculation of reference temperatures discussed below.</div>
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<table class="table table-bordered" style="background-color: transparent; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; width: 847px;"><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Planetary Variable</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Symbol</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">SI Units</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Physical Dimension</th></tr>
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<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Global mean annual near-surface temperature (GMAT), the dependent variable</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">K</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">[Θ]</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Stellar irradiance (average shortwave flux incident on a plane perpendicular to the stellar rays at the top of a planet’s atmosphere)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">S</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">[M T<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-3</span>]</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Reference temperature (the planet’s mean surface temperature in the absence of an atmosphere or an atmospheric greenhouse effect)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">K</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">[Θ]</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Average near-surface gas pressure representing either partial pressure of greenhouse gases or total atmospheric pressure</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">x</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Pa</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">[M L<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> T<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>]</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Average near-surface gas density representing either greenhouse-gas density or total atmospheric density</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">x</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">kg m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-3</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">[M L<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-3</span>]</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Reference pressure (the minimum atmospheric pressure required a liquid solvent to exists at the surface)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Pa</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">[M L<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> T<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>]</td></tr>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 1:</span> Variables employed in the Dimensional Analysis aimed at deriving a general planetary temperature model. The variables are comprised of 4 fundamental physical dimensions: mass [M], length [L], time [T] and absolute temperature [Θ].</div>
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Appendix A details the procedure employed to construct the π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> variables. DA yielded two sets of π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> products, each one consisting of two dimensionless variables, i.e.,</div>
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and</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e003.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></div>
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This implies an investigation of two types of dimensionally homogeneous functions (relationships):</div>
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and</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e004.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (2)</div>
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Note that π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">1</span>=T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span> occurs as a dependent variable in both relationships, since it contains the sought temperature T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>. Upon replacing the generic pressure/density variables P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">x</span> and ρ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">x</span> in functions (1) and (2) with either partial pressure/density of greenhouse gases (P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">gh</span> and ρ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">gh</span>) or total atmospheric pressure/density (P and ρ), one arrives at six prospective regression models. Further, as explained further, we employed two distinct kinds of reference temperature computed from different formulas, i.e., an effective radiating equilibrium temperature (Te) and a mean ‘no-atmosphere’ spherical surface temperature (T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span>) (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 1</span>). This doubled the π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> instances in the regression analysis bringing the total number of potential models for investigation to twelve.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Reference temperatures and reference pressure</span></div>
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A reference temperature (Tr) characterizes the average thermal environment at the surface of a planetary body in the absence of atmospheric greenhouse effect; hence, Tr is different for each body and depends on solar irradiance and surface albedo. The purpose of Tr is to provide a baseline for quantifying the thermal effect of planetary atmospheres. Indeed, the T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span> ratio produced by DA can physically be interpreted as a Relative Atmospheric Thermal Enhancement (RATE) ideally expected to be equal to or greater than 1.0. Expressing the thermal effect of a planetary atmosphere as a non-dimensional quotient instead of an absolute temperature difference (as done in the past) allows for an unbiased comparison of the greenhouse effects of celestial bodies orbiting at different distances from the Sun. This is because the absolute strength of the greenhouse effect (measured in K) depends on both solar insolation and atmospheric properties, while RATE being a radiation-normalized quantity is expected to only be a function of a planet’s atmospheric environment. To our knowledge, RATE has not previously been employed to measure the thermal effect of planetary atmospheres.</div>
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Two methods have been proposed thus far for estimating the average surface temperature of a planetary body without the greenhouse effect, both based on the SB radiation law. The first and most popular approach uses the planet’s global energy budget to calculate a single radiating equilibrium temperature Te (also known as an effective emission temperature) from the average absorbed solar flux [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#6" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="6">6</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#9" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="9">9</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#28" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="28">28</a>], i.e.,</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e005.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (3)</div>
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Here, S is the solar irradiance (W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>) defined as the TOA shortwave flux incident on a plane perpendicular to the incoming rays, α<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">p</span> is the planetary Bond albedo (decimal fraction), ε is the planet’s LW emissivity (typically 0.9 ≤ ε <1 .0="" a="" al.="" assume="" based="" by="" et="" href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#29" in="" lunar="" measurements="" on="" regolith="" reported="" study="" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" this="" title="29" vasavada="" we="">29</1></div>
], and σ=5.6704 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-8</span> W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> K-4 is the SB constant. The term S(1-α<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">p</span> )⁄4 represents a globally averaged shortwave flux absorbed by the planetatmosphere system. The rationale behind Eq. (3) is that the TOA energy balance presumably defines a baseline temperature at a certain height in the free atmosphere (around 5 km for Earth), which is related to the planet’s mean surface temperature via the infrared optical depth of the atmosphere [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#9" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="9">9</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#10" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="10">10</a>]. Equation (3) was introduced to planetary science in the early 1960s [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#30" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="30">30</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#31" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="31">31</a>] and has been widely utilized ever since to calculate the average surface temperatures of airless (or nearly airless) bodies such as Mercury, Moon and Mars [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#32" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="32">32</a>] as well as to quantify the strength of the greenhouse effect of planetary atmospheres [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#2" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="2">2</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#4" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="4">4</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#6" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="6">6</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#9" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="9">9</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#28" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="28">28</a>]. However, Volokin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>] showed that, due to Hölder’s inequality between integrals [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#33" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="33">33</a>], Te is a non-physical temperature for spheres and lacks a meaningful relationship to the planet’s T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>.<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin-bottom: 10px;">
The second method attempts to estimate the average surface temperature of a planet (T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span>) in the complete absence of an atmosphere using an explicit spatial integration of the SB law over a sphere. Instead of calculating a single bulk temperature from the average absorbed shortwave flux as done in Eq. (3), this alternative approach first computes the equilibrium temperature at every point on the surface of an airless planet from the local absorbed shortwave flux using the SB relation, and then spherically integrates the resulting temperature field to produce a global temperature mean. While algorithmically opposite to Eq. (3), this method mimics well the procedure for calculating Earth’s global temperature as an area-weighted average of surface observations.</div>
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Rubincam [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#34" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="34">34</a>] proposed an analytic solution to the spherical integration of the SB law (his Eq. 15) assuming no heat storage by the regolith and zero thermal inertia of the ground. Volokin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>] improved upon Rubincam’s formulation by deriving a closed-form integral expression that explicitly accounts for the effect of subterranean heat storage, cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) and geothermal heating on the average global surface temperature of airless bodies. The complete form of their analytic Spherical Airless- Temperature (SAT) model reads:</div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e006.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (4a)</div>
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where αe is the effective shortwave albedo of the surface, η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> is the effective ground heat storage coefficient in a vacuum, R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">c</span>=σ 2.725<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">4</span>=3.13 × 10-6 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> is the CMBR [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#35" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="35">35</a>], and Rg is the spatially averaged geothermal flux (W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>) emanating from the subsurface. The heat storage term η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> is defined as a fraction of the absorbed shortwave flux conducted into the subsurface during daylight hour and subsequently released as heat at night.</div>
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Since the effect of CMBR on T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> is negligible for S>0.15 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>] and the geothermal contribution to surface temperatures is insignificant for most planetary bodies, one can simplify Eq. (4a) by substituting R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">c</span>=R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">g</span>=0 This produces:</div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e007.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (4b)</div>
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where 0.932=0.754<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">0.25</span>. The complete formula (4a) must only be used if S ≤ 0.15 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> and/or the magnitude of Rg is significantly greater than zero. For comparison, in the Solar System, the threshold S ≤ 0.15 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> is encountered beyond 95 astronomical unis (AU) in the region of the inner Oort cloud. Volokin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>] verified Equations (4a) and (4b) against Moon temperature data provided by the NASA Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#29" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="29">29</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#36" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="36">36</a>]. These authors also showed that accounting for the subterranean heat storage (η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>) markedly improves the physical realism and accuracy of the SAT model compared to the original formulation by Rubincam [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#34" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="34">34</a>].</div>
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The conceptual difference between Equations (3) and (4b) is that Τ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> represents the equilibrium temperature of a blackbody disk orthogonally illuminated by shortwave radiation with an intensity equal to the average solar flux absorbed by a sphere having a Bond albedo α<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">p</span>, while Τna is the area-weighted average temperature of a thermally heterogeneous airless sphere [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#37" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="37">37</a>]. In other words, for spherical objects, Τ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> is an abstract mathematical temperature, while T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> is the average kinetic temperature of an airless surface. Due to Hölder’s inequality between integrals, one always finds Τ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>>>Τna when using equivalent values of stellar irradiance and surface albedo in Equations (3) and (4b) [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>].</div>
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To calculate the T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> temperatures for planetary bodies with tangible atmospheres, we assumed that the airless equivalents of such objects would be covered with a regolith of similar optical and thermo-physical properties as the Moon surface. This is based on the premise that, in the absence of a protective atmosphere, the open cosmic environment would erode and pulverize exposed surfaces of rocky planets over time in a similar manner [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>]. Also, properties of the Moon surface are the best studied ones among all airless bodies in the Solar System. Hence, one could further simplify Eq. (4b) by combining the albedo, the heat storage fraction and the emissivity parameter into a single constant using applicable values for the Moon, i.e., αe=0.132, η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.00971 and ε=0.98 [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#29" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="29">29</a>]. This produces:</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e008.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (4c)</div>
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Equation (4c) was employed to estimate the ‘no-atmosphere’ reference temperatures of all planetary bodies participating in our analysis and discussed below.</div>
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For a reference pressure, we used the gas-liquid-solid triple point of water, i.e., P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span>=611.73P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">a</span> [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#38" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="38">38</a>] defining a baric threshold, below which water can only exists in a solid/vapor phase and not in a liquid form. The results of our analysis are not sensitive to the particular choice of a referencepressure value; hence, the selection of Pr is a matter of convention.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Regression analysis</span></div>
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Finding the best function to describe the observed variation of GMAT among celestial bodies requires that the π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> variables generated by DA be subjected to regression analyses. As explained in Appendix A, twelve pairs of π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> variables hereto called Models were investigated. In order to ease the curve fitting and simplify the visualization of results, we utilized natural logarithms of the constructed π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> variables rather than their absolute values, i.e., we modeled the relationship In (π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">1</span>)=f (In(π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>)) nstead of π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">1</span>=f(π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>) In doing so we focused on monotonic functions of conservative shapes such as exponential, sigmoidal, hyperbolic, and logarithmic, for their fitting coefficients might be interpretable in physically meaningful terms. A key advantage of this type of functions (provided the existence of a good fit, of course) is that they also tend to yield reliable results outside the data range used to determine their coefficients. We specifically avoided non-monotonic functions such as polynomials because of their ability to accurately fit almost any dataset given a sufficiently large number of regression coefficients while at the same time showing poor predictive skills beyond the calibration data range. Due to their highly flexible shape, polynomials can easily fit random noise in a dataset, an outcome we particularly tried to avoid.</div>
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The following four-parameter exponential-growth function was found to best meet our criteria:</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e009.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (5)</div>
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where x=In π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span> (and y=In π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">1</span>) are the independent and dependent variable respectively while a,b,c and d are regression coefficients. This function has a rigid shape that can only describe specific exponential patters found in our data. Equation (5) was fitted to each one of the 12 planetary data sets of logarithmic π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> pairs suggested by DA using the standard method of least squares. The skills of the resulting regression models were evaluated via three statistical criteria: coefficient of determination (R<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>), adjusted R<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>, and standard error of the estimate (σ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">est</span>) [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#39" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="39">39</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#40" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="40">40</a>]. All calculations were performed with the SigmaPlot<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">™</span> 13 graphing and analysis software.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Planetary data</span></div>
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To ensure proper application of the DA methodology we compiled a dataset of diverse planetary environments in the Solar System using the best information available. Celestial bodies were selected for the analysis based on three criteria: (a) presence of a solid surface; (b) availability of reliable data on near-surface temperature, atmospheric composition, and total air pressure/density preferably from direct observations; and (c) representation of a broad range of physical environments defined in terms of TOA solar irradiance and atmospheric properties. This resulted in the selection of three planets: Venus, Earth, and Mars; and three natural satellites: Moon of Earth, Titan of Saturn, and Triton of Neptune.</div>
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Each celestial body was described by nine parameters shown in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 2</span> with data sources listed in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 3</span>. In an effort to minimize the effect of unforced (internal) climate variability on the derivation of our temperature model, we tried to assemble a dataset of means representing an observational period of 30 years, i.e., from 1981 to 2010. Thus, Voyager measurements of Titan from the early 1980s suggested an average surface temperature of 94 ± 0.7 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#41" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="41">41</a>]. Subsequent observations by the Cassini mission between 2005 and 2010 indicated a mean global temperature of 93.4 ± 0.6 K for that moon [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#42" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="42">42</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#43" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="43">43</a>]. Since Saturn’s orbital period equals 29.45 Earth years, we averaged the above global temperature values to arrive at 93.7 ± 0.6 K as an estimate of Titan’s 30-year GMAT. Similarly, data gathered in the late 1970s by the Viking Landers on Mars were combined with more recent Curiosity- Rover surface measurements and 1999-2005 remote observations by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft to derive representative estimates of GMAT and atmospheric surface pressure for the Red Planet (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 2</span>). Some parameter values reported in the literature did not meet our criteria for global representativeness and or physical plausibility and were recalculated using available observations as described below (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 3</span>).</div>
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<table class="table table-bordered" style="background-color: transparent; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; width: 847px;"><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Parameter</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Venus</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Earth</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Moon</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Mars</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Titan</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Triton</th></tr>
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<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Average distance to the Sun, (AU)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.7233</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.5237</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">9.582</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">30.07</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Average TOA solar irradiance, (W m-2)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">2,601.3</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1,360.9</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1,360.9</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">586.2</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">14.8</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.5</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Bond albedo, (decimal fraction)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.900</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.294</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.136</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.235</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.265</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.650</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Average absorbed shortwave radiation, (W m-2)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">65.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">240.2</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">294.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">112.1</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">2.72</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.13</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Global average surface atmospheric pressure, (Pa)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">9,300,000.0 ± 100,000</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">98,550.0 ± 6.5</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">2.96 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-10</span> ± 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-10</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">685.4 ± 14.2</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">146,700.0 ± 100</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">4.0 ± 1.2</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Global average surface atmospheric density, (kg m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-3</span>)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">65.868 ± 0.44</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.193 ± 0.002</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">2.81 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-15</span> ± 9.4 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-15</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.019 ± 3.2 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-4</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">5.161 ± 0.03</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">3.45 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-4</span> ± 9.2 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-5</span></td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Chemical composition of the lower atmosphere (% of volume)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">96.5 CO<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />3.48 N<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>0.02 SO2</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">77.89 N<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span> <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />20.89 O<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>0.932 Ar <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />0.248 H<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>O<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />0.040 CO<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">26.7 4He<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />26.7 20Ne <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />23.3 H<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />20.0 40Ar<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />3.3 22Ne</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">95.32 CO<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span> <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />2.70 N<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span> <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />1.60 Ar <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />0.13 O<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />0.08 CO <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />0.021 H<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>O</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">95.1 N<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>4.9 CH<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">4</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">99.91 N<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />0.060 CO <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />0.024 CH<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">4</span></td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Molar mass of the lower atmosphere, (kg mol<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span>)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0434</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0289</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0156</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0434</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0274</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0280</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">GMAT, (K)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">737.0 ± 3.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">287.4 ± 0.5</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">197.35 ± 0.9</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">190.56 ± 0.7</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">93.7 ± 0.6</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">39.0 ± 1.0</td></tr>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 2:</span> Planetary data set used in the Dimensional Analysis compiled from sources listed in Table 3. The estimation of Mars’ GMAT and the average surface atmospheric pressure are discussed in Appendix B. See Section 2.5 for details about the computational methods employed for some parameters.</div>
<div class="table-responsive" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 13px; min-height: 0.01%; overflow-x: auto; text-align: justify;">
<table class="table table-bordered" style="background-color: transparent; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; width: 847px;"><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Planetary Body</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Information Sources</th></tr>
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Venus</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">[32-48]</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Earth</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">[12,13,32,49-55]</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Moon</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"> [1,29,32,48,56-59]</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Mars</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">[32,48,60-63]</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Titan</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">[32,41-43,64-72]</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Triton</span></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">[48,73-75]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 3:</span> Literature sources of the planetary data presented in Table 2.</div>
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The mean solar irradiances of all bodies were calculated as S=S<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">E</span> r<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">au</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> where r<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">au</span> is the body’s average distance (semi-major axis) to the Sun (AU) and S<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">E</span>=1,360.9 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> is the Earth’s new lower irradiance at 1 AU according to recent satellite observations reported by Kopp and Lean [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#49" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="49">49</a>]. Due to a design flaw in earlier spectrometers, the solar irradiance at Earth’s distance has been overestimated by ≈ 5 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> prior to 2003 [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#49" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="49">49</a>]. Consequently, our calculations yielded slightly lower irradiances for bodies such as Venus and Mars compared to previously published data. Our decision to recalculate S was based on the assumption that the orbital distances of planets are known with much greater accuracy than TOA solar irradiances. Hence, a correction made to Earth’s irradiance requires adjusting the ‘solar constants’ of all other planets as well.</div>
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We found that quoted values for the mean global temperature and surface atmospheric pressure of Mars were either improbable or too uncertain to be useful to our analysis. Thus, studies published in the last 15 years report Mars’ GMAT being anywhere between 200 K and 240 K with the most frequently quoted values in the range 210–220 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#6" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="6">6</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#32" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="32">32</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#76" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="76">76</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#81" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="81">81</a>]. However, in-situ measurements by Viking Lander 1 suggest that the average surface air temperature at a low-elevation site in the Martian subtropics does not exceed 207 K during the summerfall season (Appendix B). Therefore, the Red Planet’s GMAT must be lower than 207 K. The Viking records also indicate that average diurnal temperatures above 210 K can only occur on Mars during summertime. Hence, all such values must be significantly higher than the actual mean annual temperature at any Martian latitude. This is also supported by results from a 3-D global circulation model of the Red Planet obtained by Fenton et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#82" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="82">82</a>]. The surface atmospheric pressure on Mars varies appreciably with season and location. Its global average value has previously been reported between 600 Pa and 700 Pa [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#6" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="6">6</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#32" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="32">32</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#78" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="78">78</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#80" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="80">80</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#83" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="83">83</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#84" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="84">84</a>], a range that was too broad for the target precision of our study. Hence our decision to calculate new annual global means of near-surface temperature and air pressure for Mars via a thorough analysis of available data from remote-sensing and in-situ observations. Appendix B details our computational procedure with the results presented in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 2</span>. It is noteworthy that our independent estimate of Mars’ GMAT (190.56 ± 0.7 K), while significantly lower than values quoted in recent years, is in perfect agreement with spherically integrated brightness temperatures of the Red Planet derived from remote microwave measurements in the late 1960s and early 1970s [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#85" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="85">85</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#87" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="87">87</a>].</div>
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Moon’s GMAT was also not readily extractable from the published literature. Although lunar temperatures have been measured for more than 50 years both remotely and in situ [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#36" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="36">36</a>] most studies focus on observed temperature extremes across the lunar surface [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#56" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="56">56</a>] and rarely discuss the Moon’s average global temperature. Current GMAT estimates for the Moon cluster around two narrow ranges: 250–255 K and 269–271 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#32" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="32">32</a>]. A careful examination of the published data reveals that the 250–255 K range is based on subterranean heat-flow measurements conducted at depths between 80 and 140 cm at the Apollo 15 and 17 landing sites located at 26oN; 3.6° E and 20° N; 30.6° E, respectively [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#88" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="88">88</a>]. Due to a strong temperature dependence of the lunar regolith thermal conductivity in the topmost 1-2 cm soil, the Moon’s average diurnal temperature increases steadily with depth. According to Apollo measurements, the mean daily temperature at 35 cm belowground is 40–45 K higher than that at the lunar surface [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#88" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="88">88</a>]. The diurnal temperature fluctuations completely vanish below a depth of 80 cm. At 100 cm depth, the temperature of the lunar regolith ranged from 250.7 K to 252.5 K at the Apollo 15 site and between 254.5 K and 255.5 K at the Apollo 17 site [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#88" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="88">88</a>]. Hence, reported Moon average temperatures in the range 250-255 K do not describe surface conditions. Moreover, since measured in the lunar subtropics, such temperatures do not likely even represent Moon’s global thermal environment at these depths. On the other hand, frequently quoted Moon global temperatures of ~270 K are actually calculated from Eq. (3) and not based on surface measurements. However, as demonstrated by Volokin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>], Eq. (3) overestimates the mean global surface temperature of spheres by about 37%. In this study, we employed the spherical estimate of Moon’s GMAT (197.35 K) obtained by Volokin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>] using output from a NASA thermo-physical model validated against Diviner observations [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#29" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="29">29</a>].</div>
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Surprisingly, many publications report incorrect values even for Earth’s mean global temperature. Studies of <a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/terrestrial-pollution.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">terrestrial</a> climate typically focus on temperature anomalies and if Earth’s GMAT is ever mentioned, it is often loosely quoted as 15 C (~288 K) [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#2" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="2">2</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#4" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="4">4</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#6" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="6">6</a>]. However, observations archived in the HadCRUT4 dataset of the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#50" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="50">50</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#89" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="89">89</a>] and in the Global Historical Climatology Network [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#51" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="51">51</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#52" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="52">52</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#90" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="90">90</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#91" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="91">91</a>] indicate that, between 1981 and 2010, Earth’s mean annual surface air temperature was 287.4 K (14.3 C) ± 0.5 K. Some recent studies acknowledge this more accurate lower value of Earth’s absolute global temperature [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#92" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="92">92</a>]. For Earth’s mean surface atmospheric pressure we adopted the estimate by Trenberth et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#53" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="53">53</a>] (98.55 kPa), which takes into account the average elevation of continental landmasses above sea level; hence, it is slightly lower than the typical sea-level pressure of ≈ 101.3 kPa.</div>
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The average near-surface atmospheric densities (p, kg m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-3</span>) of planetary bodies were calculated from reported means of total atmospheric pressure (P), molar mass (M, kg moL<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span>) and temperature (T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>) using the Ideal Gas Law, i.e.,</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e010.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (6)</div>
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where R=8.31446 J moL<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> K<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> is the universal gas constant. This calculation was intended to make atmospheric densities physically consistent with independent data on pressure and temperature utilized in our study. The resulting p values were similar to previously published data for individual bodies. Standard errors of the air-density estimates were calculated from reported errors of and Τ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span> for each body using Eq. (6).</div>
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Data in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 2</span> were harnessed to compute several intermediate variables and all dimensionless π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> products necessary for the regression analyses. The results from these computations are shown in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 4</span>. Greenhouse gases in planetary atmospheres represented by the major constituents carbon dioxide (CO<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>), methane (CH<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">4</span>) and water vapor (H<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>O) were collectively quantified via three bulk parameters: average molar mass (Mgh, kg moL<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span>), combined partial pressure (P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">gh</span>, Pa) and combined partial density (ρ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">gh</span>, kg m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-3</span>). These parameters were estimated from reported volumetric concentrations of individual greenhouse gases (Cx, %) and data on total atmospheric pressure and density in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 2</span> using the formulas (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 4</span>):</div>
<div class="table-responsive" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 13px; min-height: 0.01%; overflow-x: auto; text-align: justify;">
<table class="table table-bordered" style="background-color: transparent; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; width: 847px;"><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Intermediate Variable or Dimensionless Product</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Venus</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Earth</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Moon</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Mars</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Titan</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Triton</th></tr>
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Average molar mass of greenhouse gases, (kg mol-1) (Eq. 7)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0440</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0216</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0440</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0160</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0160</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Near-surface partial pressure of greenhouse gases, (Pa) (Eq. 8)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">8,974,500.0 ± 96,500</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">283.8 ± 0.02</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">667.7 ± 13.8</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">7,188.3 ± 4.9</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">9.6 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-4</span> ± 2.9 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-4</span></td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Near-surface density of greenhouse gases, (kg m-3) (Eq. 9)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">64.441 ± 0.429</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">2.57 × 10-3 ± 4.3 × 10-6</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.018 ± 3.1 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-4</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.148 ± 8.4 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-4</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">4.74 × 10-8 ± 1.3 × 10-8</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Radiating equilibrium temperature, (K) (Eq. 3)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">185.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">256.4</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">269.7</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">211.9</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">83.6</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">39.2</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Average airless spherical temperature, (K) (Eq. 4c)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">231.7</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">197.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">197.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">159.6</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">63.6</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">35.9</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: x-small;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/ T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span></em></span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">3.985 ± 0.016</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.121 ± 0.002</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.732 ± 0.003</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.899 ± 0.003</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.120 ± 0.008</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.994 ± 0.026</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: x-small;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/ Tna</em></span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">3.181 ± 0.013</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.459 ± 0.002</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.002 ± 0.004</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.194 ± 0.004</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.473 ± 0.011</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.086 ± 0.028</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: x-small;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">In(T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/Te)</em></span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.3825 ± 0.0041</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.1141 ± 0.0017</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-0.3123 ± 0.0046</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-0.1063 ± 0.0037</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.1136 ± 0.0075</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-5.2×10-3 ± 0.0256</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: x-small;"><i style="box-sizing: border-box;">In(T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span>)</i></span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.1573 ± 0.0041</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.3775 ± 0.0017</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.59×10-3 ± 0.0046</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.1772 ± 0.0037</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.3870 ± 0.0075</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0828 ± 0.0256</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: x-small;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">In[(P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">gh</span> 3/(ρ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">gh</span> S<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>)]</em></span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">28.1364</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">8.4784</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Undefined</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">10.7520</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">23.1644</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-4.7981</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: x-small;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 14.95px;">ln[P<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span>/(ρ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">gh</span> S<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>)]</span></em></span></div>
</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">28.2433</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">26.0283</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">+∞</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">10.8304</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">32.2122</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">20.2065</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 16.1px;">ln[P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">gh</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span>/(ρ S<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>)]</span></em></div>
</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">28.1145</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">2.3370</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Undefined</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">10.7396</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">19.6102</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-13.6926</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: x-small;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 14.95px;">ln[P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">gh</span>/P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span>]</span></em></span></div>
</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">9.5936</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-0.7679</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">Undefined</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0876</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">2.4639</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-13.3649</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: x-small;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 14.95px;">l</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 14.95px;">n[P<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span>/(ρ S<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>)]</span></em></span></div>
</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">28.2214</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">19.8869</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-46.7497</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">10.8180</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">28.6580</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">11.3120</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: x-small;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">In[P/P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span>]</em></span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">9.6292 ± 0.0108</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">5.0820 ± 6.6×10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-5</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-28.3570 ± 0.3516</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.1137 ± 0.0207</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">5.4799 ± 6.8×10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-4</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-5.0300 ± 0.3095</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 4:</span> Intermediate variables and dimensionless products required for the regression analyses and calculated from data in Table 2. Equations used to compute intermediate variables are shown in parentheses. The reference pressure is set to the barometric triple point of water, i.e., P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span>=611.73 Pa.</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e011.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (7)</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e012.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (8)</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e013.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (9)</div>
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where Cgh=CCO<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>+CCH<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">4</span>+CH<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>O is the total volumetric concentration of major greenhouse gases (%). The reference temperatures Τ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> and Τna were calculated from Equations (3) and (4c), respectively.</div>
<h4 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; text-align: justify;">
Results</h4>
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Function (5) was fitted to each one of the 12 sets of logarithmic π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> pairs generated by Equations (1) and (2) and shown in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 4</span>. <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figures 1 and 2</span> display the resulting curves of individual regression models with planetary data plotted in the background for reference. <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 5</span> lists the statistical scores of each non-linear regression. Model 12 depicted in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 2f</span> had the highest R<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>=0.9999 and the lowest standard error σ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">est</span>=0.0078 among all regressions. Model 1 (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 1a</span>) provided the second best fit with R<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>=0.9844 and σ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">est</span>=0.1529 Notably, Model 1 shows almost a 20-time larger standard error on the logarithmic scale than Model 12. <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 3</span> illustrates the difference in predictive skills between the two top-performing Models 1 and 12 upon conversion of vertical axes to a linear scale. Taking an antilogarithm weakens the relationship of Model 1 to the point of becoming immaterial and highlights the superiority of Model 12. The statistical results shown in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 5</span> indicate that the explanatory power and descriptive accuracy of Model 12 surpass these of all other models by a wide margin.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 1:</span> The relative atmospheric thermal enhancement (T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span>) as a function of various dimensionless forcing variables generated by DA using data on solar irradiance, near-surface partial pressure/density of greenhouse gases, and total atmospheric pressure/density from Table 4. Panels a through f depict six regression models suggested by DA with the underlying celestial bodies plotted in the background for reference. Each pair of horizontal graphs represents different reference temperatures (T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span>) defined as either T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span>/T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> (left) or Tr/Tna (right).</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 2:</span> The same as in Figure 1 but for six additional regression models (panels a through f).</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 3:</span> Comparison of the two best-performing regression models according to statistical scores listed in Table 5. Vertical axes use linear scales to better illustrate the difference in skills between the models.</div>
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<table class="table table-bordered" style="background-color: transparent; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; width: 847px;"><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">No.</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Functional Model</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Coefficient of Determination (R2)</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Adjusted R2</th><th align="center" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Standard Error</th></tr>
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.7; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: left;">
<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e032.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></div>
</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.9844</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.9375</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.1529</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">2</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e033.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.9562</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.8249</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.1773</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">3</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e034.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.1372</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-2.4511</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.1360</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">4</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e035.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.2450</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-2.0200</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.7365</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">5</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e036.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.9835</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.9339</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.1572</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">6</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e037.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.9467</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.7866</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.1957</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">7</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e038.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.9818</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.9274</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.1648</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">8</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e039.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.9649</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.8598</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.1587</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">9</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e040.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.4488</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">-0.3780</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.7060</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">10</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e041.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.6256</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0639</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.4049</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">11</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e042.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.9396</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.8489</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.2338</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">12</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e043.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.9999</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.9997</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">0.0078</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 5:</span> Performance statistics of the twelve regression models suggested by DA. Statistical scores refer to the model logarithmic forms shown in Figures 1 and 2.</div>
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Since Titan and Earth nearly overlap on the logarithmic scale of <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 2f</span>, we decided to experiment with an alternative regression for Model 12, which excludes Titan from the input dataset. This new curve had R2=1.0 and σ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">est</span>=0.0009. Although the two regression equations yield similar results over most of the relevant pressure range, we chose the one without Titan as final for Model 12 based on the assumption that Earth’s GMAT is likely known with a much greater accuracy than Titan’s mean annual temperature. Taking an antilogarithm of the final regression equation, which excluded Titan, yields the following expression for Model 12:</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e014.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (10a)</div>
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The regression coefficients in Eq. (10a) are intentionally shown in full precision to allow an accurate calculation of RATE (i.e., the T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> ratios) provided the strong non-linearity of (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figures 1-3</span> and <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 5</span>) the relationship and to facilitate a successful replication of our results by other researchers. <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 4</span> depicts Eq. (10a) as a dependence of RATE on the average surface air pressure. Superimposed on this graph are the six planetary bodies from <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 4</span> along with their uncertainty ranges.</div>
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<a class="thumbnail" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="background-color: white; border-radius: 4px; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; display: block; line-height: 1.42857; margin-bottom: 0px; outline: none; padding: 4px; transition: border 0.2s ease-in-out;"><img alt="environment-pollution-climate-change-relative-atmospheric" class="img-responsive" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-change-relative-atmospheric-1-112-g004.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" title="environment-pollution-climate-change-relative-atmospheric" /></a></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 4:</span> The relative atmospheric thermal enhancement (T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> ratio) as a function of the average surface air pressure according to Eq. (10a) derived from data representing a broad range of planetary environments in the solar system. Saturn’s moon titan has been excluded from the regression analysis leading to Eq. (10a). Error bars of some bodies are not clearly visible due to their small size relative to the scale of the axes. See Table 2 for the actual error estimates.</div>
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Equation (10a) implies that GMATs of rocky planets can be calculated as a product of two quantities: the planet’s average surface temperature in the absence of an atmosphere (T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span>, K) and a nondimensional factor (Ea ≥ 1.0) quantifying the relative thermal effect of the atmosphere, i.e.,</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e015.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (10b)</div>
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where Τna is obtained from the SAT model (Eq. 4a) and Ea is a function of total pressure (P) given by:</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e016.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (11)</div>
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Note that, as P approaches 0 in Eq. (11), Ea approaches the physically realistic limit of 1.0. Other physical aspects of this equation are discussed below.</div>
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For bodies with tangible atmospheres (such as Venus, Earth, Mars, Titan and Triton), one must calculate T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> using αe=0.132 and η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.00971, which assumes a Moon-like airless reference surface in accordance with our pre-analysis premise. For bodies with tenuous atmospheres (such as Mercury, the Moon, Calisto and Europa), T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> should be calculated from Eq. (4a) (or Eq. 4b respectively if S>0.15 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> and/or R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">g</span> ≈ 0 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>) using the body’s observed values of Bond albedo αe and ground heat storage fraction η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>. In the context of this model, a tangible atmosphere is defined as one that has significantly modified the optical and thermo-physical properties of a planet’s surface compared to an airless environment and/or noticeably impacted the overall planetary albedo by enabling the formation of clouds and haze. A tenuous atmosphere, on the other hand, is one that has not had a measurable influence on the surface albedo and regolith thermos-physical properties and is completely transparent to shortwave radiation. The need for such delineation of atmospheric masses when calculating T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> arises from the fact that Eq. (10a) accurately describes RATEs of planetary bodies with tangible atmospheres over a wide range of conditions without explicitly accounting for the observed large differences in albedos (i.e., from 0.235 to 0.90) while assuming constant values of αe and η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> for the airless equivalent of these bodies. One possible explanation for this counterintuitive empirical result is that atmospheric pressure alters the planetary albedo and heat storage properties of the surface in a way that transforms these parameters from independent controllers of the global temperature in airless bodies to intrinsic byproducts of the climate system itself in worlds with appreciable atmospheres. In other words, once atmospheric pressure rises above a certain level, the effects of albedo and ground heat storage on GMAT become implicitly accounted for by Eq. (11). Although this hypothesis requires an investigation beyond the scope of the present study, one finds an initial support for it in the observation that, according to data in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 2</span>, GMATs of bodies with tangible atmospheres do not show a physically meaningful relationship with the amounts of absorbed shortwave radiation determined by albedos. Our discovery for the need to utilize different albedos and heat storage coefficients between airless worlds and worlds with tangible atmospheres is not unique as a methodological approach. In many areas of science and engineering, it is sometime necessary to use disparate model parameterizations to successfully describe different aspects of the same phenomenon. An example is the distinction made in fluid mechanics between laminar and turbulent flow, where the nondimensional Reynold’s number is employed to separate the two regimes that are subjected to different mathematical treatments.</div>
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We do not currently have sufficient data to precisely define the limit between <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">tangible</em> and <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">tenuous</em> atmospheres in terms of total pressure for the purpose of this model. However, considering that an atmospheric pressure of 1.0 Pa on Pluto causes the formation of layered haze [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#93" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="93">93</a>], we surmise that this limit likely lies significantly below 1.0 Pa. In this study, we use 0.01 Pa as a tentative threshold value. Thus, in the context of Eq. (10b), we recommend computing T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> from Eq. (4c) if P>10-2Pa, and from Eq. (4a) (or Eq. 4b, respectively) using observed values of αe and η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> if P ≤ 10-2Pa. Equation (4a) should also be employed in cases, where a significant geothermal flux Rg>>0 exists such as on the Galilean moons of Jupiter due to tidal heating, and/or if S ≤ 0.15 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>. Hence, the 30-year mean global equilibrium surface temperature of rocky planets depends in general on five factors: TOA stellar irradiance (S), a reference airless surface albedo (αe), a reference airless ground heat storage fraction (η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>), the average geothermal flux reaching the surface (R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">g</span>), and the total surface atmospheric pressure (P). For planets with tangible atmospheres (P>10-2Pa) and a negligible geothermal heating of the surface (R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">g</span> ≈ 0), the equilibrium GMAT becomes only a function of two factors: S and P, i.e., Τ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>=32.44S0.25Eα (P). The final model (Eq. 10b) can also be cast in terms of T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span> as a function of a planet’s distance to the Sun (r<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">au</span>, AU) by replacing S in Equations (4a), (4b) or (4c) with 1360.9 r<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">au</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Environmental scope and numerical accuracy of the new model</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 5</span> portrays the residuals between modeled and observed absolute planetary temperatures. For celestial bodies participating in the regression analysis (i.e., Venus, Earth, Moon, Mars and Triton), the maximum model error does not exceed 0.17 K and is well within the uncertainty of observations. The error for Titan, an independent data point, is 1.45 K or 1.5% of that moon’s current best-known GMAT (93.7 K). Equation (10b) produces 95.18 K for Titan at Saturn’s semi-major axis (9.582 AU) corresponding to a solar irradiance S=14.8 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>. This estimate is virtually identical to the 95 K average surface temperature reported for that moon by the NASA JPL Voyager Mission website [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#94" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="94">94</a>]. The Voyager spacecraft 1 and 2 reached Saturn and its moons in November 1980 and August 1981, respectively, when the gas giant was at a distance between 9.52 AU and 9.60 AU from the Sun corresponding approximately to Saturn’s semi-major axis [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#95" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="95">95</a>].</div>
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Data acquired by Voyager 1 suggested an average surface temperature of 94 ± 0.7 K for Titan, while Voyager 2 indicated a temperature close to 95 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#41" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="41">41</a>]. Measurements obtained between 2005 and 2010 by the Cassini-Huygens mission revealed T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span> ≈ 93.4 ± 0.6 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#42" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="42">42</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#43" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="43">43</a>]. Using Saturn’s perihelion (9.023 AU) and aphelion (10.05 AU) one can compute Titan’s TOA solar irradiance at the closest and furthest approach to the Sun, i.e., 16.7 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> and 13.47 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>, respectively. Inserting these values into Eq. (10b) produces the expected upper and lower limit of Titan’s mean global surface temperature according to our model, i.e., 92.9 K ≤ T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>≤ 98.1 K. Notably this range encompasses all current observation-based estimates of Titan’s GMAT. Since both Voyager and Cassini mission covered shorter periods than a single Titan season (Saturn’s orbital period is 29.45 Earth years), the available measurements may not well represent that moon’s annual <a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/environmental/thermal-pollution.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">thermal</a> cycle. In addition, due to a thermal inertia, Titan’s average surface temperature likely lags variations in the TOA solar irradiance caused by Saturn’s orbital eccentricity. Thus, the observed 1.45 K discrepancy between our independent model prediction and Titan’s current best-known GMAT seems to be within the range of plausible global temperature fluctuations on that moon. Hence, further observations are needed to more precisely constrain Titan’s long-term GMAT.</div>
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Measurements conducted by the Voyager spacecraft in 1989 indicated a global mean temperature of 38 ± 1.0 K and an average atmospheric pressure of 1.4 Pa at the surface of Triton [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#73" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="73">73</a>]. Even though Eq. (10a) is based on slightly different data for Triton (i.e., T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span> =39 ±1.0 K and P=4.0 Pa) obtained by more recent stellar occultation measurements [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#73" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="73">73</a>], employing the Voyager-reported pressure in Eq. (10b) produces T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>=38.5 K for Triton’s GMAT, a value well within the uncertainty of the 1989 temperature measurements (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 5</span>).</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 5:</span> Absolute differences between modeled average global temperatures by Eq. (10b) and observed GMATs (from Table 2) for the studied celestial bodies. Saturn’s moon Titan represents an independent data point, since it was excluded from the regression analysis leading to Eq. (10a).</div>
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The above comparisons indicate that Eq. (10b) rather accurately describes the observed variation of the mean surface temperature across a wide range of planetary environments in terms of solar irradiance (from 1.5 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> to 2,602 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>), total atmospheric pressure (from near vacuum to 9,300 kPa) and greenhouse-gas concentrations (from 0.0% to over 96% per volume). While true that Eq. (10a) is based on data from only 6 celestial objects, one should keep in mind that these constitute virtually all bodies in the Solar System meeting our criteria for availability and quality of measured data. Although function (5) has 4 free parameters estimated from just 5-6 data points, there are no signs of model overfitting in this case because (a) Eq. (5) represents a monotonic function of a rigid shape that can only describe well certain exponential pattern as evident from <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figures 1 and 2</span> and statistical scores in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 5</span>; (b) a simple scatter plot of In (P/P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span>) vs. In(T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span>)visibly reveals the presence of an exponential relationship free of data noise; and (c) no polynomial can fit the data points in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 2f</span> as accurately as Eq. (5) while also producing a physically meaningful response curve similar to known pressure-temperature relationships in other systems. These facts indicate that Eq. (5) is not too complicated to cause an over fitting but just right for describing the data at hand.</div>
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The fact that only one of the investigated twelve non-linear regressions yielded a tight relationship suggests that Model 12 describes a macro-level thermodynamic property of planetary atmospheres heretofore unbeknown to science. A function of such predictive power spanning the entire breadth of the Solar System cannot be just a result of chance. Indeed, complex natural systems consisting of myriad interacting agents have been known to sometime exhibit emergent responses at higher levels of hierarchical organization that are amenable to accurate modeling using top-down statistical approaches [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#96" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="96">96</a>]. Equation (10a) also displays several other characteristics discussed below that lend further support to the above notion.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Model robustness</span></div>
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Model robustness defines the degree to which a statistical relationship would hold when recalculated using a different dataset. To test the robustness of Eq. (10a) we performed an alternative regression analysis, which excluded Earth and Titan from the input data and only utilized logarithmic pairs of T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> and P/P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span> for Venus, the Moon, Mars and Triton from <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 4</span>. The goal was to evaluate how well the resulting new regression equation would predict the observed mean surface temperatures of Earth and Titan. Since these two bodies occupy a highly non-linear region in Model 12 (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 2f</span>), eliminating them from the regression analysis would leave a key portion of the curve poorly defined. As in all previous cases, function (5) was fitted to the incomplete dataset (omitting Earth and Titan), which yielded the following expression:</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e017.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (12a)</div>
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Substituting the reference temperature T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> in Eq. (12a) with its equivalent from Eq. (4c) and solving for T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span> produces</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e018.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (12b)</div>
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It is evident that the regression coefficients in the first exponent term of Eq. (12a) are nearly identical to those in Eq. (10a). This term dominates the T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>-Prelationship over the pressure range 0-400 kPa accounting for more than 97.5% of the predicted temperature magnitudes. The regression coefficients of the second exponent differ somewhat between the two formulas causing a divergence of calculated RATE values over the pressure interval 400 –9,100 kPa. The models converge again between 9,000 kPa and 9,300 kPa. <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 6</span> illustrates the similarity of responses between Equations (10a) and (12a) over the pressure range 0–300 kPa with Earth and Titan plotted in the foreground for reference (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 6</span>).</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 6:</span> Demonstration of the robustness of Model 12. The solid black curve depicts Eq. (10a) based on data from 5 celestial bodies (i.e., Venus, Earth, Moon, Mars and Triton). The dashed grey curve portrays Eq. (12a) derived from data of only 4 bodies (i.e., Venus, Moon, Mars and Triton) while excluding Earth and Titan from the regression analysis. The alternative Eq. (12b) predicts the observed GMATs of Earth and Titan with accuracy greater than 99% indicating that Model 12 is statistically robust.</div>
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Equation (12b) reproduces the observed global surface temperature of Earth with an error of 0.4% (-1.0 K) and that of Titan with an error of 1.0% (+0.9 K). For Titan, the error of the new Eq. (12b) is even slightly smaller than that of the original model (Eq. 10b). The ability of Model 12 to predict Earth’s GMAT with an accuracy of 99.6% using a relationship inferred from disparate environments such as those found on Venus, Moon, Mars and Triton indicates that (a) this model is statistically robust, and (b) Earth’s temperature is a part of a cosmic thermodynamic continuum well described by Eq. (10b). The apparent smoothness of this continuum for bodies with tangible atmospheres (illustrated in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 4</span>) suggests that planetary climates are wellbuffered and have no ‘tipping points’ in reality, i.e., states enabling rapid and irreversible changes in the global equilibrium temperature as a result of destabilizing positive feedbacks assumed to operate within climate systems. This robustness test also serves as a cross-validation suggesting that the new model has a universal nature and is not a product of over fitting.</div>
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The above characteristics of Eq. (10a) including dimensional homogeneity, high predictive accuracy, broad environmental scope of validity and statistical robustness indicate that it represents an emergent macro-physical model of potential theoretical significance deserving further investigation. This conclusive result is also supported by the physical meaningfulness of the response curve described by Eq. (10a).</div>
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Discussion</h4>
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Given the high statistical scores of the new model (Eq. 10b) discussed above, it is important to address its physical significance, potential limitations, and broad implications for the current climate theory.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Similarity of the new model to Poisson’s formula and the SB radiation law</span></div>
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The functional response of Eq. (10a) portrayed in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 4</span> closely resembles the shape of the dry adiabatic temperature curve in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 7a</span> described by the Poisson formula and derived from the First Law of Thermodynamics and the Ideal Gas Law [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#4" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="4">4</a>], i.e.,</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 7:</span> Known pressure-temperature kinetic relations: (a) Dry adiabatic response of the air/surface temperature ratio to pressure changes in a free dry atmosphere according to Poisson’s formula (Eq. 13) with a reference pressure set to po=100 kPa; (b) The SB radiation law expressed as a response of a blackbody temperature ratio to variations in photon pressure (Eq. 14). Note the qualitative striking similarity of shapes between these curves and the one portrayed in Figure 4 depicting the new planetary temperature model (Eq. 10a).</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e019.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (13)</div>
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Here, To and po are reference values for temperature and pressure typically measured at the surface, while T and p are corresponding scalars in the free atmosphere, and cp is the molar heat capacity of air (J moL<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> K<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span>). For the Earth’s atmosphere, R/cp=0.286. Equation (13) essentially describes the direct effect of a pressure p on gas temperature (T) in the absence of any heat exchange with the surrounding <a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/environment-pollution-climate-change.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">environment</a>.</div>
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Equation (10a) is structurally similar to Eq. (13) in a sense that both expressions relate a temperature ratio to a pressure ratio, or more precisely, a relative thermal enhancement to a ratio of physical forces. However, while the Poisson formula typically produces 0≤ T/To ≤ 1.0Eq. (10a) always yields T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> ≥ 1.0. The key difference between the two models stems from the fact that Eq. (13) describes vertical temperature changes in a free and dry atmosphere induced by a gravity-controlled pressure gradient, while Eq. (10a) predicts the equilibrium response of a planet’s global surface air temperature to variations in total atmospheric pressure. In essence, Eq. (10b) could be viewed as a predictor of the reference temperature To in the Poisson formula. Thus, while qualitatively similar, Equations (10a) and (13) are quantitatively rather different. Both functions describe effects of pressure on temperature but in the context of disparate physical systems. Therefore, estimates obtained from Eq. (10a) should not be confused with results inferred from the Poisson formula. For example, Eq. (10b) cannot be expected to predict the temperature lapse rate and/or vertical temperature profiles within a planetary atmosphere as could be using Eq. (13). Furthermore, Eq. (10a) represents a top-down empirical model that implicitly accounts for a plethora of thermodynamic and radiative processes and feedbacks operating in real climate systems, while the Poisson formula (derived from the Ideal Gas Law) only describes pressure-induced temperature changes in a simple mixture of dry gases without any implicit or explicit consideration of planetary-scale mechanisms such as latent heat transport and cloud radiative forcing (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 7</span>).</div>
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Equation (10a) also shows remarkable similarity to the SB law relating the equilibrium skin temperature of an isothermal blackbody (Tb, K) to the electromagnetic radiative flux (I, W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>) absorbed/ emitted by the body’s surface, i.e., T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">b</span>=(I ⁄ σ)<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">0.25</span>. Dividing each side of this fundamental relationship by the irreducible temperature of deep Space T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">c</span>=2.725 K and its causative CMBR R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">c</span>=3.13 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-6</span> W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> respectively, yields T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">b</span>⁄T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">c</span> =(I ⁄ R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">c</span> )<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">0.25</span>. Further, expressing the radiative fluxes I and R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">c</span> on the right-hand side as products of photon pressure and the speed of light (c, m s<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span>) in a vacuum, i.e., I=cPph and R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">c</span>=cP<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">c</span> , leads to the following alternative form of the SB law:</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e020.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (14)</div>
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where P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">c</span>=1.043 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-14</span> Pa is the photon pressure of CMBR. Clearly, Eq. (10a) is analogous to Eq. (14), while the latter is structurally identical to the Poisson formula (13). <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 7b</span> depicts Eq. (14) as a dependence of the ratio on photon pressure P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">ph</span>.</div>
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It is evident from <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figures 4 and 7</span> that formulas (10a), (13) and (14) describe qualitatively very similar responses in quantitatively vastly different systems. The presence of such similar relations in otherwise disparate physical systems can fundamentally be explained by the fact that pressure as a force per unit area represents a key component of the internal kinetic energy (defined as a product of gas volume and pressure), while temperature is merely a physical manifestation of this energy. Adding a force such as gas pressure to a physical system inevitably boosts the internal kinetic energy and raises its temperature, a process known in <a href="http://www.conferenceseries.com/thermodynamics.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">thermodynamics</a> as compression heating. The direct effect of pressure on a system’s temperature is thermodynamically described by adiabatic processes. The pressure-induced thermal enhancement on a planetary level portrayed in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 4</span> and accurately quantified by Eq. (10a or 11) is analogous to a compression heating, but not fully identical to an adiabatic process. The latter is usually characterized by a limited duration and oftentimes only applies to finite-size parcels of air moving vertically through the atmosphere. Equation (11), on the other hand, describes a surface thermal effect that is global in scope and permanent in nature as long as an atmospheric mass is present within the planet’s gravitational field. Hence, the planetary RATE (T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>/T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> ratio) could be understood as a net result of countless simultaneous adiabatic processes continuously operating in the free atmosphere. <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figures 4 and 7</span> also suggest that the pressure control of temperature is a universal thermodynamic principle applicable to systems ranging in complexity from a simple isothermal blackbody absorbing a homogeneous flux of electromagnetic radiation to diverse planetary atmospheres governed by complex non-linear process interactions and cloud-radiative feedbacks. To our knowledge, this cross-scale similarity among various pressure-temperature relationships has not previously been identified and may provide a valuable new perspective on the working of planetary climates.</div>
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Nevertheless, important differences exist between Eq. (10a) and these other simpler pressure-temperature relations. Thus, while the Poisson formula and the SB radiation law can mathematically be derived from ‘first principles’ and experimentally tested in a laboratory, Eq. (10a) could neither be analytically deduced from known physical laws nor accurately simulated in a small-scale experiment. This is because Eq. (10a) describes an emergent macro-level property of planetary atmospheres representing the net result of myriad process interactions within real climate systems that are not readily computable using mechanistic (bottom-up) approaches adopted in climate models or fully reproducible in a laboratory setting.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Potential limitations of the planetary temperature model</span></div>
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Equation (10b) describes the long-term (30 years) equilibrium GMATs of planetary bodies and does not predict inter-annual global <a href="https://www.omicsonline.com/thermal-comfort-temperature/online-journals.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">temperature</a> variations caused by intrinsic fluctuations of cloud albedo and/or ocean heat uptake. Thus, the observed 0.82 K rise of Earth’s global temperature since 1880 is not captured by our model, since this warming was likely not the result of an increased atmospheric pressure. Recent analyses of observed dimming and brightening periods worldwide [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#97" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="97">97</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#99" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="99">99</a>] suggest that the warming over the past 130 years might have been caused by a decrease in global cloud cover and a subsequent increased absorption of solar radiation by the surface. Similarly, the mega shift of Earth’s climate from a ‘hothouse’ to an ‘icehouse’ evident in the sedimentary archives over the past 51 My cannot be explained by Eq. (10b) unless caused by a large loss of atmospheric mass and a corresponding significant drop in surface air pressure since the early Eocene. Pleistocene fluctuations of global temperature in the order of 3.0–8.0 K during the last 2 My revealed by multiple proxies [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#100" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="100">100</a>] are also not predictable by Eq. (10b) if due to factors other than changes in total atmospheric pressure and/or TOA solar irradiance.</div>
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The current prevailing view mostly based on theoretical considerations and results from climate models is that the Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles have been caused by a combination of three forcing agents: Milankovitch orbital variations, changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and a hypothesized positive icealbedo feedback [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#101" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="101">101</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#102" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="102">102</a>]. However, recent studies have shown that orbital forcing and the ice-albedo feedback cannot explain key features of the glacial-interglacial oscillations such as the observed magnitudes of global temperature changes, the skewness of temperature response (i.e., slow glaciations followed by rapid meltdowns), and the mid- Pleistocene transition from a 41 Ky to 100 Ky cycle length [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#103" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="103">103</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#107" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="107">107</a>]. The only significant forcing remaining in the present paleo-climatological toolbox to explicate the Pleistocene cycles are variations in greenhousegas concentrations. Hence, it is difficult to explain, from a standpoint of the current climate theory, the high accuracy of Eq. (11) describing the relative thermal effect of diverse planetary atmospheres without any consideration of greenhouse gases. If presumed forcing agents such as greenhouse-gas concentrations and the planetary albedo were indeed responsible for the observed past temperature dynamics on Earth, why did these agents not show up as predictors of contemporary planetary temperatures in our analysis as well? Could it be because these agents have not really been driving Earth’s climate on geological time scales? We address the potential role of greenhouse gases in more below. Since the relationship portrayed in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 4</span> is undoubtedly real, our model results point toward the need to reexamine some fundamental climate processes thought to be well understood for decades. For example, we are currently testing a hypothesis that Pleistocene glacial cycles might have been caused by variations in Earth’s total atmospheric mass and surface air pressure. Preliminary results based on the ability of an extended version of our planetary model (simulating meridional temperature gradients) to predict the observed polar amplification during the Last Glacial Maximum indicate that such a hypothesis is not unreasonable. However, conclusive findings from this research will be discussed elsewhere.</div>
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According to the present understanding, Earth’s atmospheric pressure has remained nearly invariant during the Cenozoic era (i.e., last 65.5 My). However, this notion is primarily based on theoretical analyses [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#106" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="106">106</a>], since there are currently no known geo-chemical proxies permitting a reliable reconstruction of past pressure changes in a manner similar to that provided by various temperature proxies such as isotopic oxygen 18, alkenones and TEX86 in sediments, and Ar-N isotope ratios and deuterium concentrations in ice. The lack of independent pressure proxies makes the assumption of a constant atmospheric mass throughout the Cenozoic a priori and thus questionable. Although this topic is beyond the scope of our study, allowing for the possibility that atmospheric pressure on Earth might have varied significantly over the past 65.5 My could open exciting new research venues in Earth sciences in general and paleoclimatology in particular.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Role of greenhouse gasses from a perspective of the new model</span></div>
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Our analysis revealed a poor relationship between GMAT and the amount of greenhouse gases in planetary atmospheres across a broad range of environments in the Solar System (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figures 1-3</span> and <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 5</span>). This is a surprising result from the standpoint of the current Greenhouse theory, which assumes that an atmosphere warms the surface of a planet (or moon) via trapping of radiant heat by certain gases controlling the atmospheric infrared <a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/optical-biosensors/peer-reviewed-journal.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">optical</a> depth [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#4" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="4">4</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#9" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="9">9</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#10" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="10">10</a>]. The atmospheric opacity to LW radiation depends on air density and gas absorptivity, which in turn are functions of total pressure, temperature, and greenhouse-gas concentrations [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#9" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="9">9</a>]. Pressure also controls the broadening of infrared absorption lines in individual gases. Therefore, the higher the pressure, the larger the infrared optical depth of an atmosphere, and the stronger the expected greenhouse effect would be. According to the present climate theory, pressure only indirectly affects global surface temperature through the atmospheric infrared opacity and its presumed constraint on the planet’s LW emission to Space [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#9" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="9">9</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#107" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="107">107</a>].</div>
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There are four plausible explanations for the apparent lack of a close relationship between GMAT and atmospheric greenhouse gasses in our results: 1) The amounts of greenhouse gases considered in our analysis only refer to near-surface atmospheric compositions and do not describe the infrared optical depth of the entire atmospheric column; 2) The analysis lumped all greenhouse gases together and did not take into account differences in the infrared spectral absorptivity of individual gasses; 3) The effect of atmospheric pressure on broadening the infrared gas absorption lines might be stronger in reality than simulated by current radiative-transfer models, so that total pressure overrides the effect of a varying atmospheric composition across a wide range of planetary environments; and 4) Pressure as a force per unit area directly impacts the internal kinetic energy and temperature of a system in accordance with thermodynamic principles inferred from the Gas Law; hence, air pressure might be the actual physical causative factor controlling a planet’s surface temperature rather than the atmospheric infrared optical depth, which merely correlates with temperature due to its co-dependence on pressure.</div>
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Based on evidences, we argue that option #4 is the most likely reason for the poor predictive skill of greenhouse gases with respect to planetary GMATs revealed in our study (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figures 1-3</span>). By definition, the infrared optical depth of an atmosphere is a dimensionless quantity that carries no units of force or energy [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#3" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="3">3</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#4" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="4">4</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#9" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="9">9</a>]. Therefore, it is difficult to fathom from a fundamental physics standpoint of view, how this non-dimensional parameter could increase the kinetic energy (and temperature) of the lower troposphere in the presence of free convection provided that the latter dominates the heat transport in gaseous systems. Pressure, on the other hand, has a dimension of force per unit area and as such is intimately related to the internal kinetic energy of an atmosphere E (J) defined as the product of gas pressure (P, Pa) and gas volume (V, m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">3</span>), i.e., E (J)=PV. Hence, the direct effect of pressure on a system’s internal energy and temperature follows straight from fundamental parameter definitions in classical thermodynamics. Generally speaking, kinetic energy cannot exist without a pressure force. Even electromagnetic radiation has pressure.</div>
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In climate models, the effect of infrared optical depth on surface temperature is simulated by mathematically decoupling radiative transfer from convective heat exchange. Specifically, the LW radiative transfer is computed in these models without simultaneous consideration of sensible- and latent heat fluxes in the solution matrix. Radiative transfer modules compute the so-called heating rates (K/ day) strictly as a function of atmospheric infrared opacity, which under constant-pressure conditions solely depends on greenhousegas concentrations. These heating rates are subsequently added to the thermodynamic portion of climate models and distributed throughout the atmosphere. In this manner, the surface warming becomes a function of an increasing atmospheric infrared opacity. This approach to modeling of radiative-convective energy transport rests on the principle of superposition, which is only applicable to linear systems, where the overall solution can be obtained as a sum of the solutions to individual system components. However, the integral heat transport within a free atmosphere is inherently nonlinear with respect to temperature. This is because, in the energy balance equation, radiant heat transfer is contingent upon power gradients of absolute temperatures, while convective cooling/heating depends on linear temperature differences in the case of sensible heat flux and on simple vapor pressure gradients in the case of latent heat flux [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#4" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="4">4</a>]. The latent heat transport is in turn a function of a solvent’s saturation vapor pressure, which increases exponentially with temperature [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#3" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="3">3</a>]. Thus, the superposition principle cannot be employed in energy budget calculations. The artificial decoupling between radiative and convective heat-transfer processes adopted in climate models leads to mathematically and physically incorrect solutions with regard to surface temperature. The LW radiative transfer in a real climate system is intimately intertwined with turbulent convection/advection as both transport mechanisms occur simultaneously. Since convection (and especially the moist one) is orders of magnitude more efficient in transferring energy than LW radiation [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#3" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="3">3</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#4" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="4">4</a>], and because heat preferentially travels along the path of least resistance, a properly coupled radiative-convective algorithm of energy exchange will produce quantitatively and qualitatively different temperature solutions in response to a changing atmospheric composition than the ones obtained by current climate models. Specifically, a correctly coupled convective-radiative system will render the surface temperature insensitive to variations in the atmospheric infrared optical depth, a result indirectly supported by our analysis as well. This topic requires further investigation beyond the scope of the present study.</div>
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The direct effect of atmospheric pressure on the global surface temperature has received virtually no attention in climate science thus far. However, the results from our empirical data analysis suggest that it deserves a serious consideration in the future.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Theoretical implications of the new interplanetary relationship</span></div>
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The hereto discovered pressure-temperature relationship quantified by Eq. (10a) and depicted in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 4</span> has broad theoretical implications that can be summarized as follows:</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Physical nature of the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’:</span> According to Eq. (10b), the heating mechanism of planetary atmospheres is analogous to a gravity-controlled adiabatic compression acting upon the entire surface. This means that the atmosphere does not function as an insulator reducing the rate of planet’s infrared cooling to space as presently assumed [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#9" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="9">9</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#10" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="10">10</a>], but instead adiabatically boosts the kinetic energy of the lower troposphere beyond the level of solar input through gas compression. Hence, the physical nature of the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ is a pressure-induced thermal enhancement independent of atmospheric composition. This mechanism is fundamentally different from the hypothesized ‘trapping’ of LW radiation by atmospheric trace gases first proposed in the 19th century and presently forming the core of the Greenhouse climate theory. However, a radiant-heat trapping by freely convective gases has never been demonstrated experimentally. We should point out that the hereto deduced adiabatic (pressure-controlled) nature of the atmospheric thermal effect rests on an objective analysis of vetted planetary observations from across the Solar System and is backed by proven thermodynamic principles, while the ‘trapping’ of LW radiation by an unconstrained atmosphere surmised by Fourier, Tyndall and Arrhenius in the 1800s was based on a theoretical conjecture. The latter has later been coded into algorithms that describe the surface temperature as a function of atmospheric infrared optical depth (instead of pressure) by artificially decoupling radiative transfer from convective heat exchange. Note also that the Ideal Gas Law (PV=nRT) forming the basis of atmospheric physics is indifferent to the gas chemical composition.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Effect of pressure on temperature:</span> Atmospheric pressure provides in and of itself only a relative thermal enhancement (RATE) to the surface quantified by Eq. (11). The absolute thermal effect of an atmosphere depends on both pressure and the TOA solar irradiance. For example, at a total air pressure of 98.55 kPa, Earth’s RATE is 1.459, which keeps our planet 90.4 K warmer in its present orbit than it would be in the absence of an atmosphere. Hence, our model fully explains the new ~90 K estimate of Earth’s atmospheric thermal effect derived by Volokin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>] using a different line of reasoning. If one moves Earth to the orbit of Titan (located at ~9.6 AU from the Sun) without changing the overall pressure, our planet’s RATE will remain the same, but the absolute thermal effect of the atmosphere would drop to about 29.2 K due to a vastly reduced solar flux. In other words, the absolute effect of pressure on a system’s temperature depends on the background energy level of the environment. This implies that the absolute temperature of a gas may not follow variations of pressure if the gas energy absorption changes in opposite direction to that of pressure. For instance, the temperature of Earth’s stratosphere increases with altitude above the tropopause despite a falling air pressure, because the absorption of UV radiation by ozone steeply increases with height, thus offsetting the effect of a dropping pressure. If the UV absorption were constant throughout the stratosphere, the air temperature would decrease with altitude.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Atmospheric back radiation and surface temperature:</span> Since (according to Eq. 10b) the equilibrium GMAT of a planet is largely determined by the TOA solar irradiance and surface atmospheric pressure, the down-welling LW radiation appears to be globally a product of the air temperature rather than a driver of the surface warming. In other words, on a planetary scale, the so-called back radiation is a consequence of the atmospheric thermal effect rather than a cause for it. This explains the broad variation in the size of the observed down-welling LW flux among celestial bodies irrespective of the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Therefore, a change in this thermal flux brought about by a shift in atmospheric LW emissivity cannot be expected to impact the global surface temperature. Any variation in the global infrared back radiation caused by a change in atmospheric composition would be compensated for by a corresponding opposite shift in the intensity of the vertical convective heat transport. Such a balance between changes in atmospheric infrared heating and the upward convective cooling at the surface is required by the First Law of Thermodynamics. However, current climate models do not simulate this compensatory effect of sensible and latent heat fluxes due to an improper decoupling between radiative transfer and turbulent convection in the estimation of total energy exchange.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Role of planetary albedos:</span> The fact that Eq. (10b) accurately describes planetary GMATs without explicitly accounting for the observed broad range of albedos, i.e., from 0.136 to 0.9 (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 2</span>), indicates that the shortwave reflectivity of planetary atmospheres is mostly an intrinsic property (a byproduct) of the climate system itself rather than an independent driver of climate as currently believed. In other words, it is the internal energy of the atmosphere maintained by solar irradiance and air pressure that controls the bulk of the albedo. An indirect support for this unorthodox conclusion is provided by the observation that the amounts of absorbed shortwave radiation determined by albedos show no physically meaningful relationship with planetary GMATs. For example, data in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 2</span> indicate that Venus absorbs 3.7 times less <a href="http://www.conferenceseries.com/solar-energy.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">solar energy</a> per unit area than Earth, yet its surface is about 450 K hotter than that of Earth; the Moon receives on average 54 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> more net solar radiation than Earth, but it is about 90 K cooler on average than our planet. The hereto proposed passive nature of planetary albedos does not imply that the global cloud cover could not be influenced by an external forcing such as solar wind, galactic cosmic rays, and/or gravitational fields of other celestial objects. Empirical evidence strongly suggests that it can [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#108" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="108">108</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#113" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="113">113</a>], but the magnitude of such influences is expected to be small compared to the total albedo due to the presence of stabilizing negative feedbacks within the system. We also anticipate that the sensitivity of GMATs to an albedo change will greatly vary among planetary bodies. Viewing the atmospheric reflectivity as a byproduct of the available internal energy rather than a driver of climate can also help explain the observed remarkable stability of Earth’s albedo [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#54" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="54">54</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#114" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="114">114</a>].</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Climate stability:</span> Our semi-empirical model (Equations 4a, 10b and 11) suggests that, as long as the mean annual TOA solar flux and the total atmospheric mass of a planet are stationary, the equilibrium GMAT will remain stable. Inter-annual and decadal variations of global temperature forced by fluctuations of cloud cover, for example, are expected to be small compared to the magnitude of the background atmospheric warming because of strong negative feedbacks limiting the albedo changes. This implies a relatively stable climate for a planet such as Earth absent significant shifts in the total atmospheric mass and the planet’s orbital distance to the Sun. Hence, planetary climates appear to be free of tipping points, i.e., functional states fostering rapid and irreversible changes in the global temperature as a result of hypothesized positive feedbacks thought to operate within the system. In other words, our results suggest that the Earth’s climate is well buffered against sudden changes.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Effect of oceans and water vapor on global temperature:</span> The new model shows that the Earth’s global equilibrium temperature is a part of a cosmic thermodynamic continuum controlled by atmospheric pressure and total solar irradiance. Since our planet is the only one among studied celestial bodies harboring a large quantity of liquid water on the surface, Eq. (10b) implies that the oceans play virtually no role in determining Earth’s GMAT. This finding may sound inexplicable from the standpoint of the radiative Greenhouse theory, but it follows logically from the new paradigm of a pressure-induced atmospheric warming. The presence of liquid water on the surface of a planet requires an air pressure greater than 612 Pa and an ambient temperature above 273.2 K. These conditions are provided by the planet’s size and gravity, its distance to the Sun, and the mass of the atmosphere. Hence, the water oceans on Earth seem to be a thermodynamic consequence of particular physical conditions set by cosmic arrangements rather than an active controller of the global climate. Similarly, the hydrocarbon lakes on the surface of Titan [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#115" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="115">115</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#116" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="116">116</a>] are the result of a high atmospheric pressure and an extremely cold environment found on that moon. Thus, our analysis did not reveal evidence for the existence of a feedback between planetary GMAT and a precipitable liquid solvent on the surface as predicted by the current climate theory. Consequently, the hypothesized runaway greenhouse, which requires a net positive feedback between global surface temperature and the atmospheric LW opacity controlled by water vapor [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#117" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="117">117</a>], appears to be a model artifact rather than an actual physical possibility. Indeed, as illustrated in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 4</span>, the hot temperature of Venus often cited as a product of a ‘runaway greenhouse’ scenario [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#117" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="117">117</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#118" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="118">118</a>] fits perfectly within the pressuredependent climate continuum described by Equations (10b) and (11).</div>
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Model Application and Validation</h4>
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Encouraged by the high predictive skill and broad scope of validity of Model 12 (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 2f</span>) we decided to apply Eq. (10b) to four celestial bodies spanning the breadth of the Solar System, i.e., Mercury, Europa, Callisto and Pluto, which global surface temperatures are not currently known with certainty. Each body is the target of either ongoing or planned robotic exploration missions scheduled to provide surface thermal data among other observations, thus offering an opportunity to validate our planetary temperature model against independent measurements.</div>
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The MESSENGER spacecraft launched in 2004 completed the first comprehensive mapping of Mercury in March 2013 (<a href="https://messenger.jhuapl.edu/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">https://messenger.jhuapl.edu/</a>). Among other things, the spacecraft also took infrared measurements of the planet’s surface using a special spectrometer [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#119" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="119">119</a>] that should soon become available. The New Horizons spacecraft launched in January 2006 [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#120" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="120">120</a>] reached Pluto in July of 2015 and performed a thermal scan of the dwarf planet during a flyby. The complete dataset from this flyby were received on Earth in October of 2016 and are currently being analyzed. A proposed joint Europa-Jupiter System Mission by NASA and the European Space Agency is planned to study the Jovian moons after year 2020. It envisions exploring Europa’s physical and thermal environments both remotely via a NASA Orbiter and <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">in situ</em> by a Europa Lander [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#121" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="121">121</a>].</div>
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All four celestial bodies have somewhat eccentric orbits around the Sun. However, while Mercury’s orbital period is only 88 Earth days, Europa and Callisto circumnavigate the Sun once every 11.9 Earth years while Pluto takes 248 Earth years. The atmospheric pressure on Pluto is believed to vary between 1.0 and 4.0 Pa over the course of its orbital period as a function of insolation-driven sublimation of nitrogen and methane ices on the surface [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#122" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="122">122</a>]. Each body’s temperature was evaluated at three orbital distances from the Sun: aphelion, perihelion, and the semi-major axis. Since Mercury, Europa and Callisto harbor tenuous atmospheres (P<<10 span="" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</10></div>
Pa), the reference temperature T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> in Eq. (10b) must be calculated from Eq. (4a), which requires knowledge of the actual values of αe, η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>, and R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">g</span>. We assumed that Mercury had R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">g</span>=0.0 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>, α=0.068 [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#123" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="123">123</a>] and Moon-like thermo-physical properties of the regolith (η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.00971). Input data for Europa and Callisto were obtained from Spencer et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#124" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="124">124</a>], Moore et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#125" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="125">125</a>], respectively. Specifically, to calculate η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> and Rg for these moons we utilized equatorial temperature data provided by Spencer et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#124" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="124">124</a>] in their <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 1</span>, and by Moore et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#125" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="125">125</a>] in a figure along with a theoretical formula for computing the average nighttime surface temperature T at the equator based on the SB law, i.e.,<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e021.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (15)</div>
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where S(1-α) η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> is the absorbed solar flux (W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>) stored as heat into the subsurface. The <a href="https://www.omicsonline.com/geothermal-energy/best-indexed-journals.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">geothermal</a> heat flux on Europa is poorly known. However, based on thermal observations of Io reported by Veeder et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#126" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="126">126</a>], we assumed Rg=2.0 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> for Europa. Using S=50.3 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>, an observed nighttime equatorial temperature T=90.9 K and an observed average night-side albedo α=0.58 [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#124" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="124">124</a>], we solved Eq. (15) for the surface heat storage fraction to obtain η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.085for Europa. A similar computational procedure was employed for Callisto using α=0.11 and equatorial surface temperature data in Moore et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#125" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="125">125</a>]. This produced Rg=0.5 W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span> and η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.057. Using these values in Eq. (15) correctly reproduced Callisto’s nighttime equatorial surface temperature of ≈ 86.0 K. The much higher η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> estimates for Europa and Callisto compared to η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.00971 for the Moon can be explained with the large water-ice content on the surface of these Galilean moons. Europa is almost completely covered by a thick layer of water ice, which has a much higher thermal conductivity than the dry regolith. Also, sunlight penetrates deeper into ice than it does into powdered regolith. All this enables a much larger fraction of the absorbed solar radiation to be stored into the subsurface as heat and later released at night boosting the nighttime surface temperatures of these moons. Volokin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>] showed that GMAT of airless bodies is highly sensitive to η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 6</span> lists the average global surface temperatures of the four celestial bodies predicted by Eq. (10b) along with the employed input data. According to our model, Mercury is about 117 K cooler on average than NASA’s current estimate of 440 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#32" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="32">32</a>], which is based on Eq. (3) and does not represent a spherically averaged surface temperature [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>]. Our prediction of Europa’s GMAT, 99.4 K, agrees well with the ≈ 100 K estimate reported for this moon by Sotin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#127" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="127">127</a>]. Our estimate of Pluto’s average surface temperature at perihelion (38.6 K) is similar to the mean temperature computed for that dwarf planet by Olkin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#124" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="124">124</a>] using a mechanistic model of nitrogen ice volatilization at the surface. Stern et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#128" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="128">128</a>] and Gladstone et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#94" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="94">94</a>] reported initial results from the flyby observations of Pluto taken by the Radio Experiment (REX) instrument aboard the New Horizons spacecraft in July 2015, when the dwarf planet was approximately at 32.9 AU from the Sun. Using the observed surface pressure of 1.05 ± 0.1 Pa (10.5 ± 1 μbar) our model predicts an average global temperature of 36.7 K for Pluto. Stern et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#128" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="128">128</a>] reported a near-surface temperature of ≈ 38 K. However, this value was calculated from pre-flyby global brightness measurements rather than derived via spherical integration of spatially resolved surface temperatures (Stern, personal communication). Since global brightness temperatures tend to be higher than spherically averaged kinetic surface temperatures [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>], our model prediction may well be within the uncertainty of Pluto’s true global temperature. We will know more about this in 2017 when spatially resolved thermal measurements obtained by New Horizons become available.</div>
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<table class="table table-bordered" style="background-color: transparent; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; width: 847px;"><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><th rowspan="2" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;" valign="bottom"> </th><th align="center" rowspan="2" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Surface Atmospheric Pressure (Pa)</th><th align="center" rowspan="2" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;"> α<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>(fraction) η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>(fraction) R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">g</span> (W m<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 9.75px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-2</span>)</th><th align="center" colspan="3" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;" valign="bottom">Predicted Average Global Surface Temperature at Specific Orbital Distances from the Sun</th></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><th align="center" style="border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Aphelion</th><th align="center" style="border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Semi-major Axis</th><th align="center" style="border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 2px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; text-align: left; vertical-align: bottom;">Perihelion</th></tr>
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Mercury</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">5 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-10</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">α<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.068<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.00971<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">g</span>=0.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;" valign="bottom">296.8 K <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />(0.459 AU)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;" valign="bottom">323.3 K<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />(0.387 AU)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;" valign="bottom">359.5 K<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />(0.313 AU)</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Europa</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-7</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">α<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.62 <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.085<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">g</span>=2.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">98.1 K<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />(5.455 AU)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">99.4 K <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />(5.203 AU)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">100.7 K <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />(4.951 AU)</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Callisto</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">7.5 × 10<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-7</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">α<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.11 <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.057<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">g</span>=0.5</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">101.2 K<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />(5.455 AU)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">103.2 K <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />(5.203 AU)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">105.4 K<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />(4.951 AU)</td></tr>
<tr style="box-sizing: border-box;"><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Pluto</span></td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">1.05</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;">α<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.132<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>=0.00971<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">g</span>=0.0</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;" valign="bottom">30.0 K<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />(49.310 AU)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;" valign="bottom">33.5 K<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />(39.482 AU)</td><td align="center" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.42857; padding: 4px; vertical-align: top;" valign="bottom">38.6 K<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />(29.667 AU)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 6:</span> Average global surface temperatures predicted by Eq. (10b) for Mercury, Europa, Calisto and Pluto. Input data on orbital distances (AU) and total atmospheric pressure (Pa) were obtained from the NASA Solar System Exploration [48] website, the NASA Planetary Factsheet [32] and Gladstone et al. [94]. Solar irradiances required by Eq. (10b) were calculated from reported orbital distances as explained. Values of α<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span>, η<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> and R<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">g</span> for Europa and Callisto were estimated from observed data by Spencer et al. [124] and Moore et al. [125] respectively (see text for details).</div>
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One should use caution when comparing results from Eq. (10b) to remotely sensed ‘average temperatures’ commonly quoted for celestial bodies with tenuous atmospheres such as the moons of Jupiter and Neptune. Studies oftentimes report the so-called ‘brightness temperatures’ retrieved at specific wavelengths that have not been subjected to a proper spherical integration. As pointed out by Volokin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>], due to Hölder’s inequality between integrals, calculated brightness temperatures of spherical objects can be significantly higher than actual mean kinetic temperatures of the surface. Since Eq. (10b) yields spherically averaged temperatures, its predictions for airless bodies are expected to be lower than the disk-integrated brightness temperatures typically quoted in the literature.</div>
<h4 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; text-align: justify;">
Conclusion</h4>
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For 190 years the atmosphere has been thought to warm Earth by absorbing a portion of the outgoing LW infrared radiation and reemitting it back toward the surface, thus augmenting the incident solar flux. This conceptualized continuous absorption and downward reemission of thermal radiation enabled by certain trace gases known to be transparent to solar rays but opaque to electromagnetic long-wavelengths has been likened to the trapping of heat by glass greenhouses, hence the term ‘atmospheric greenhouse effect’. Of course, we now know that real greenhouses preserve warmth not by trapping infrared radiation but by physically obstructing the convective heat exchange between a greenhouse interior and the exterior environment. Nevertheless, the term ‘greenhouse effect’ stuck in science.</div>
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The hypothesis that a freely convective atmosphere could retain (trap) radiant heat due its opacity has remained undisputed since its introduction in the early 1800s even though it was based on a theoretical conjecture that has never been proven experimentally. It is important to note in this regard that the well-documented enhanced absorption of thermal radiation by certain gases does not imply an ability of such gases to trap heat in an open atmospheric environment. This is because, in gaseous systems, heat is primarily transferred (dissipated) by convection (i.e., through fluid motion) rather than radiative exchange. If gases of high LW absorptivity/emissivity such as CO<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>, methane and water vapor were indeed capable of trapping radiant heat, they could be used as insulators. However, practical experience has taught us that thermal radiation losses can only be reduced by using materials of very low IR absorptivity/emissivity and correspondingly high thermal reflectivity such as aluminum foil. These materials are known among engineers at NASA and in the construction industry as radiant barriers [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#129" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="129">129</a>]. It is also known that high-emissivity materials promote radiative cooling. Yet, all climate models proposed since 1800s were built on the premise that the atmosphere warms Earth by limiting radiant heat losses of the surface through to the action of IR absorbing gases aloft.</div>
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If a trapping of radiant heat occurred in Earth’s atmosphere, the same mechanism should also be expected to operate in the atmospheres of other planetary bodies. Thus, the Greenhouse concept should be able to mathematically describe the observed variation of average planetary surface temperatures across the Solar System as a continuous function of the atmospheric infrared optical depth and solar insolation. However, to our knowledge, such a continuous description (model) does not exist. Furthermore, measured magnitudes of the global down-welling LW flux on planets with thick atmospheres such as Earth and Venus indicate that the lower troposphere of these bodies contains internal kinetic energy far exceeding the solar input [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#6" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="6">6</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#12" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="12">12</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#14" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="14">14</a>]. This fact cannot be explained via re-radiation of absorbed outgoing thermal emissions by gases known to supply no additional energy to the system. The desire to explicate the sizable energy surplus evident in the tropospheres of some terrestrial planets provided the original impetus for this research.</div>
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We combined high-quality planetary data from the last three decades with the classical method of dimensional analysis to search for an empirical model that might accurately and meaningfully describe the observed variation of global surface temperatures throughout the <a href="http://www.conferenceseries.com/solar-system.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">Solar System</a> while also providing a new perspective on the nature of the atmospheric thermal effect. Our analysis revealed that the equilibrium global surface temperatures of rocky planets with tangible atmospheres and a negligible geothermal surface heating can reliably be estimated across a wide range of atmospheric compositions and radiative regimes using only two forcing variables: TOA stellar irradiance and total surface atmospheric pressure (Eq. 10b with T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">na</span> computed from Eq. 4c). Furthermore, the relative atmospheric thermal enhancement (RATE) defined as a ratio of the planet’s actual global surface temperature to the temperature it would have had in the absence of atmosphere is fully explicable by the surface air pressure alone (Eq. 10a and <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 4</span>). At the same time, greenhouse-gas concentrations and/or partial pressures did not show any meaningful relationship to surface temperatures across a broad span of planetary environments considered in our study (see <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figures 1 and 2</span> and <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 5</span>).</div>
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Based on statistical criteria including numerical accuracy, robustness, dimensional homogeneity and a broad environmental scope of validity, the new relationship (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 4</span>) quantified by Eq. (10a) appears to describe an emergent macro-level thermodynamic property of planetary atmospheres heretofore unbeknown to science. The physical significance of this empirical model is further supported by its striking qualitative resemblance to the dry adiabatic temperature curve described by the Poisson formula (Eq. 13) and to the photon-pressure form of the SB radiation law (Eq. 14). Similar to these well-known kinetic relations, Eq. (10a) also predicts the direct effect of pressure on temperature albeit in the context of a different macro-physical system. To our knowledge, this is the first model accurately describing the average surface temperatures of planetary bodies throughout the Solar System in the context of a thermodynamic continuum using a common set of drivers.</div>
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The planetary temperature model consisting of Equations (4a), (10b), (11) has several fundamental theoretical implications, i.e.,</div>
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• The ‘greenhouse effect’ is not a radiative phenomenon driven by the atmospheric infrared optical depth as presently believed, but a pressure-induced thermal enhancement analogous to adiabatic heating and independent of atmospheric composition;</div>
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• The down-welling LW radiation is not a global driver of surface warming as hypothesized for over 100 years but a product of the near-surface air temperature controlled by solar heating and atmospheric pressure;</div>
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• The albedo of planetary bodies with tangible atmospheres is not an independent driver of <a href="http://www.conferenceseries.com/climate-change.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">climate</a> but an intrinsic property (a byproduct) of the climate system itself. This does not mean that the cloud albedo cannot be influenced by external forcing such as solar wind or galactic cosmic rays. However, the magnitude of such influences is expected to be small due to the stabilizing effect of negative feedbacks operating within the system. This novel understanding explains the observed remarkable stability of planetary albedos;</div>
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• The equilibrium surface temperature of a planet is bound to remain stable (i.e., within ± 1 K) as long as the atmospheric mass and the TOA mean solar irradiance are stationary. Hence, Earth’s climate system is well buffered against sudden changes and has no tipping points;</div>
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• The proposed net positive feedback between surface temperature and the atmospheric infrared opacity controlled by water vapor appears to be a model artifact resulting from a mathematical decoupling of the radiative-convective heat transfer rather than a physical reality.</div>
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The hereto reported findings point toward the need for a paradigm shift in our understanding of key macro-scale atmospheric properties and processes. The implications of the discovered planetary thermodynamic relationship (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure 4</span>, Eq. 10a) are fundamental in nature and require careful consideration by future research. We ask the scientific community to keep an open mind and to view the results presented herein as a possible foundation of a new theoretical framework for future exploration of climates on Earth and other worlds.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Appendices</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Appendix A. Construction of the Dimensionless π Variables</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 1</span> lists 6 generic variables (T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>, T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span>, S, P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">x</span>, P<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">r</span> and ρ<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">x</span>) composed of 4 fundamental dimensions: mass [M], length [L], time [T], and absolute temperature [Θ]. According to the Buckingham Pi theorem [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#27" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="27">27</a>], this implies the existence of two dimensionless π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span>products per set. To derive the π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> variables we employed the following objective approach. First, we hypothesized that a planet’s GMAT (T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>) is a function of all 5 independent variables listed in <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Table 1</span>, i.e.</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e022.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (B.1)</div>
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This unknown function is described to a first approximation as a simple product of the driving variables raised to various powers, i.e.</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e023.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (A.2)</div>
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where a, b, c, d and e are rational numbers. In order to determine the power coefficients, Eq. (A.2) is cast in terms of physical dimensions of the participating variables, i.e.</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e024.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (A.3)</div>
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Satisfying the requirement for dimensional homogeneity of Eq. (A.2) implies that the sum of powers of each fundamental dimension must be equal on both sides of Eq. (A.3). This allows us to write four simultaneous equations (one per fundamental dimension) containing five unknowns, i.e.</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e025.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (A.4)</div>
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System (A4) is underdetermined and has the following solution:α=1, b=2e, and c=3e+d. Note that, in the DA methodology, one oftentimes arrives at underdetermined systems of equations, simply because the number of independent variables usually exceeds the number of fundamental physical dimensions comprising such variables. However, this has no adverse effect on the derivation of the sought dimensionless π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> products.</div>
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Substituting the above roots in Eq. (A.2) reduces the original five unknowns to two: d and e, i.e.</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e026.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (A.5a)</div>
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These solution powers may now be assigned arbitrary values, although integers such as 0, 1 and -1 are preferable, for they offer the simplest solution leading to the construction of proper π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> variables. Setting d=0 and e=-1 reduces Eq. (A.5a) to</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e027.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (A.5B)</div>
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providing the first pair of dimensionless products:</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e028.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (A.6)</div>
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The second pair of π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">i</span> variables emerges upon setting d=-1 and e=0 in Eq. (A.5a), i.e.</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e029.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (A.7)</div>
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Thus, the original function (A.1) consisting of six dimensioned variables has been reduced to a relationship between two dimensionless quantities, i.e.π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">1</span>=f (π<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>). This relationship must further be investigated through regression analysis.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Appendix B. Estimation of Mars’ GMAT and Surface Atmospheric Pressure</span></div>
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Although Mars is the third most studied planetary body in the Solar System after Earth and the <a href="http://www.conferenceseries.com/the-moon.php" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">Moon</a>, there is currently no consensus among researchers regarding its mean global surface temperature (TM). TM values reported over the past 15 years span a range of 40 K. Examples of disparate GMATs quoted for the Red Planet include 200 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#79" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="79">79</a>], 202 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#82" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="82">82</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#130" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="130">130</a>], 210 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#32" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="32">32</a>], 214 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#80" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="80">80</a>], 215 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#6" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="6">6</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#81" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="81">81</a>], 218 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#77" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="77">77</a>], 220 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#76" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="76">76</a>], 227 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#131" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="131">131</a>] and 240 K [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#78" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="78">78</a>]. The most frequently cited temperatures fall between 210 K and 220 K. However, a close examination of the available thermal observations reveals a high improbability for any of the above estimates to represent Mars’ true GMAT.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure B.1</span> depicts hourly temperature series measured at 1.5 m aboveground by Viking Landers 1 and 2 (VL1 and VL2 respectively) in the late 1970s [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#60" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="60">60</a>]. The VL1 record covers about half of a Martian year, while the VL2 series extends to nearly 1.6 years. The VL1 temperature series captures a summer-fall season on a site located at about 1,500 m below Datum elevation in the subtropics of Mars’ Northern Hemisphere (22.5° N). The arithmetic average of the series is 207.3 K (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Fig. B1a</span>). Since the record lacks data from the cooler winter-spring season, this value is likely higher than the actual mean annual temperature at that location. Furthermore, observations by the Hubble telescope from the mid-1990s indicated that the Red Planet may have cooled somewhat since the time of the Viking mission [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#132" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="132">132</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#133" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="133">133</a>]. Because of a thin atmosphere and the absence of significant cloud cover and perceptible water, temperature fluctuations near the surface of Mars are tightly coupled to diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal variations in incident solar radiation. This causes sites located at the same latitude and equivalent altitudes to have similar annual temperature means irrespective of their longitudes [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#134" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="134">134</a>]. Hence, one could reliably estimate a latitudinal temperature average on Mars using point observations from any elevation by applying an appropriate lapse-rate correction for the average terrain elevation of said latitude (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure B.1</span>).</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure B.1:</span> Near-surface hourly temperatures measured on Mars by (a) Viking Lander 1 at Chryse Planitia (22.48° N, 49.97° W, Elevation: -1,500 m); and (b) Viking Lander 2 at Utopia Planitia (47.97° N, 225.74° W, Elevation: -3,000 m) (Kemppinen et al. [60]; data downloaded from: <a href="https://www-k12.atmos.washington.edu/k12/%20resources/mars_data-information/data.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" target="_blank">https://www-k12.atmos.washington.edu/k12/ resources/mars_data-information/data.html</a>). Black dashed lines mark the arithmetic average (T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">mean</span>) of each series. Grey dashed lines highlight the range of most frequently reported GMAT values for Mars, i.e., 210–240 K. The average diurnal temperature can only exceed 210 K during the summer; hence, all Martian latitudes outside the Equator must have mean annual temperatures significantly lower than 210 K.</div>
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At 22.5° absolute latitude, the average elevation between Northern and Southern Hemisphere on Mars is close to Datum level, i.e. about 1,500 m above the VL1 site. Adjusting the observed 207.3 K temperature average at VL1 to Datum elevation using a typical near-surface Martian lapse rate of -4.3 K km<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#78" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="78">78</a>] produces ~201 K for the average summerfall temperature at that latitude. Since the mean surface temperature of a sphere is typically lower than its subtropical temperature average, we can safely conclude based on <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure B.1a</span> that Mars’ GMAT is likely below 201 K. The mean temperature at the VL2 site located at ~48° N latitude and 3,000 m below Datum elevation is 191.1 K (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Fig. B.1b</span>). The average terrain elevation between Northern and Southern Hemisphere at 48o absolute latitude is abouT<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span>,500 m. Upon adjusting the VL2 annual temperature mean to -1,500 m altitude using a lapse rate of -4.3 K km<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> we obtain 184.6 K. Since a planet’s GMAT numerically falls between the mean temperature of the Equator and that of 42° absolute latitude, the above calculations suggest that Mars’ GMAT is likely between 184 K and 201 K.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure B2:</span> Mean annual surface air temperatures at five Martian absolute latitudes (gray dots) estimated from data provided by Viking Landers, Curiosity Rover, and the Mars Global Surveyor Radio Science Team. Each dot represents a mean annual temperature corresponding to the average terrain elevation between Northern and Southern Hemisphere for particular latitude. The black curve represents a third-order polynomial (Eq. B.1) fitted through the latitudinal temperature means via non-linear regression. Mars’ GMAT, T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">M</span>=190.56 K (marked by a horizontal gray dashed line) was calculated via integration of polynomial (B.1) using formula (B.2).</div>
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A close examination of the Viking record also reveals that average diurnal temperatures above 210 K only occur on Mars during the summer season and, therefore, cannot possibly represent an annual mean for any Martian latitude outside the Equator. On the other hand, frequently reported values of Mars’ GMAT in excess of 210 K appear to be based on the theoretical expectation that a planet’s average surface temperature should exceed the corresponding effective radiating temperature produced by Eq. (3) [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#78" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="78">78</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#6" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="6">6</a>], which is T<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">e</span> ≈ 212 K for Mars. This presumption is rooted in the a priori assumption that Te represents a planet’s average surface temperature in the absence of atmospheric greenhouse effect. However, Volokin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>] have shown that, due to Hölder’s inequality between integrals, the mean physical temperature of a spherical body with a tenuous atmosphere is always lower than its effective radiating temperature computed from the globally integrated absorbed stellar flux. In other words, Eq. (3) yields non-physical temperatures for spheres. Indeed, based on results from a 3-D climate model Haberle [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#130" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="130">130</a>] concluded that Mars’ mean global surface temperature is at least 8 K cooler than the planet’s effective radiating temperature. Therefore, Mars’ GMAT must be inferred from actual measurements rather than from theoretical calculations.</div>
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In order to obtain a reliable estimate of Mars’ GMAT, we calculated the mean annual temperatures at several Martian latitudes employing near-surface time series measured in-situ by the Viking landers and Curiosity Rover, and remotely by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft. The Radio Science Team (RST) at Stanford University utilized radio occultation of MGS refraction data to retrieve seasonal time-series of near-surface atmospheric temperature and pressure on Mars [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#61" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="61">61</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#62" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="62">62</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#135" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="135">135</a>]. We utilized MGS-RST data obtained between 1999 and 2005. Calculated mean temperatures from in-situ measurements were adjusted to corresponding average terrain elevations of target latitudes using a lapse rate of -4.3 K km<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">-1</span> [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#78" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="78">78</a>]. <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure B.2</span> portrays the estimated Mean Annual near-surface Temperatures (MAT) at five absolute Martian latitudes (gray dots) along with their standard errors (vertical bars). The equatorial MAT was calculated from Curiosity Rover observations; temperatures at absolute latitudes 0.392 rad (22.48°) and 0.837 rad (47.97°) were derived from VL measurements, while these at latitudes 1.117 rad (64°) and 1.396 rad (80°) were estimated from MGS-RST data. The black curve represents a third-order polynomial fitted through the latitudinal temperature averages and described by the polynomial:</div>
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<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e030.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (B.1)</div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin-bottom: 10px;">
with L being the absolute latitude (rad). MAT values predicted by Eq. (B.1) for Mars’ Equatorial and Polar Regions agree well with independent near-surface temperatures remotely measured by the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS), a platform deployed after MGS in 2006 [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#136" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="136">136</a>]. Shirley et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#136" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="136">136</a>] showed that, although separated in time by 2-5 years, MCS temperature profiles match quite well those retrieved by MGS-RST especially in the lower portion of the Martian atmosphere. <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figures 2 and 3</span> of Shirley et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#136" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="136">136</a>] depict nighttime winter temperature profiles over the Mars’ northern and southern Polar Regions, respectively at about 75° absolute latitude. The average winter surface temperature between the two Hemispheres for this latitude is about 148.5 K. This compares favorably with 156.4 K produced by Eq. (B.1) for 75° (1.309 rad) latitude considering that MAT values are expected to be higher than winter temperature averages. <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figures 4 and 5</span> of Shirley et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#136" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="136">136</a>] portray average temperature profiles retrieved by MGS-RST and MCS over lowlands (165° – 180° E) and highlands (240° - 270° E) of the Mars’ equatorial region (8° N - 8° S), respectively. For highlands (≈5 km above Datum), the near-surface temperature appears to be around 200 K, while for lowlands (≈2.5 km below Datum) it is ≈211 K. Since most of Mars’ equatorial region lies above Datum, it is likely that Mars’ equatorial MAT would be lower than 205.5 K and close to our independent estimate of ≈203 K based on Curiosity Rover measurements.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin-bottom: 10px;">
Mars’ GMAT (TM) was calculated via integration of polynomial (B.1) using the formula:</div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<img alt="equation" class="equation" src="https://www.omicsonline.org/articles-images/environment-pollution-climate-1-112-e031.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px 1rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" /> (B.2)</div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin-bottom: 10px;">
(<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure B.2</span>) where 0 ≤ cosL ≤ 1 is a polar-coordinate area-weighting factor. The result is TM=190.56 ± 0.7 K (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-weight: 700;">Figure B.2</span>). This estimate, while significantly lower than GMAT values quoted in recent publications, agrees quite well with spherically integrated brightness temperatures of Mars retrieved from remote microwave observations during the late 1960s and early 1970s [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#85" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="85">85</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#87" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="87">87</a>]. Thus, according to Hobbs et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#85" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="85">85</a>] and Klein [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#86" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="86">86</a>], the Martian mean global temperature (inferred from measurements at wavelengths between 1 and 21 cm) is 190 – 193 K. Our TM estimate is also consistent with the new mean surface temperature of the Moon (197.35 K) derived by Volokin et al. [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="1">1</a>] using output from a validated NASA thermo-physical model [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#29" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="29">29</a>]. Since Mars receives 57% less solar ittadiance than the Moon and has a thin atmosphere that only delivers a weak greenhouse effect [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#9" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="9">9</a>], it makes a physical sense that the Red Planet would be on average cooler than the Moon (i.e. TM<197 .3k="" 213="" a="" as="" average="" by="" diviner="" equator="" href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#1" if="" is="" k="" latitude="" lunar="" moreover="" nasa="" observations="" of="" oon="" revealed="" s="" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" temperature="" the="" title="1" warmest="">1</197></div>
,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#29" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="29">29</a>], it is unlikely that Mars’ mean global temperature would be equal to or higher than 213 K as assumed by many studies [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#6" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="6">6</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#76" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="76">76</a>-<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#78" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="78">78</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#80" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="80">80</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#131" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="131">131</a>]<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin-bottom: 10px;">
Published values of Mars’ average surface atmospheric pressures range from 600 Pa to 700 Pa [<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#6" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="6">6</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#32" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="32">32</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#78" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="78">78</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#80" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="80">80</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#124" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="124">124</a>,<a href="https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/new-insights-on-the-physical-nature-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect-deduced-from-an-empirical-planetary-temperature-model.php?aid=88574#125" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #004080; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;" title="125">125</a>]. Since this interval was too broad for the target precision of our study, we employed MGSRST data retrieved from multiple latitudes and seasons between 1999 and 2005 to calculate a new mean surface air pressure for the Red Planet. Our analysis produced P=685.4 ± 14.2 Pa, an estimate within the range of previously reported values.</div>
<h4 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; text-align: justify;">
Funding Sources</h4>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin-bottom: 10px;">
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.</div>
<h4 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #185fa1; font-family: "Noto Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; text-align: justify;">
References</h4>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-88139022999372980372017-02-04T13:39:00.000-08:002017-02-04T13:39:57.940-08:00WSJ: Change Would Be Healthy at U.S. Climate Agencies, such as mentioning margin of error!<div class="wsj-headline" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px; padding: 0px 4px;">
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<a href="http://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/change-would-be-healthy-at-u-s-climate-agencies-1486165226">Change Would Be Healthy at U.S. Climate Agencies</a></h1>
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In the Obama era, it was routine for press releases to avoid mentioning any margin of error.</h2>
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Opinion Journal Video: Business World Columnist Holman Jenkins Jr. on why the Trump Administration should reform NOAA and NASA. Photo credit: Getty Images.</div>
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<span class="author" itemprop="name" style="font-family: "chronicle ssm" , "georgia" , serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic;">Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.</span></div>
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<time class="timestamp" style="color: #878f8f; font-family: Whitney, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 24px;">Updated Feb. 4, 2017 8:33 a.m. ET THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</time></div>
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It will be hard to notice when President Trump does something worthy of hysteria if everything he does is greeted with hysteria. Take claims that he’s laying siege to the alleged chastity of climate scientists. This is one subject where it might be wise not to rely on the reflexive media narrative. </div>
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The year 2016 was the warmest ever recorded—so claimed two U.S. agencies, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Commerce Department’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Except it wasn’t, according to the agencies’ own measures of statistical uncertainty.</div>
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Such fudge is of fairly recent vintage. Leaving any discussion of the uncertainty interval out of press releases only became the norm in the second year of the Obama administration. Back when he was presenting the 2008 numbers, NASA’s James Hansen, no slouch in raising climate alarms, nevertheless made a point of being <a class="icon none" href="https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2008_temps.html" style="-webkit-transition: 0.3s; color: #2fbfbf; text-decoration: none; transition: 0.3s;" target="_blank">quoted</a> saying such annual rankings can be “misleading because the difference in temperature between one year and another is often less than the uncertainty in the global average.”</div>
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Statisticians wouldn’t go through the trouble of assigning an uncertainty value unless it meant something. Two measurements separated by less than the margin of error are the same. And yet NASA’s Goddard Institute, now under Mr. Hansen’s successor Gavin Schmidt, put out a <a class="icon none" href="https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20150116/" style="-webkit-transition: 0.3s; color: #2fbfbf; text-decoration: none; transition: 0.3s;" target="_blank">release</a>declaring 2014 the “warmest year in the modern record” when it was statistically indistinguishable from 2005 and 2010.</div>
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Nowadays Goddard seems to mention confidence interval only when it’s convenient. So 2015, an El Niño year, was the warmest yet “with 94 percent certainty.” No confidence interval was cited one year later in proclaiming 2016 the new warmest year “since modern recordkeeping began.” In fact, the difference versus 2015 was a mere one-quarter of the margin of error.</div>
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Commerce’s NOAA makes a fetish of ignoring confidence interval in its <a class="icon none" href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201613#gtemp" style="-webkit-transition: 0.3s; color: #2fbfbf; text-decoration: none; transition: 0.3s;" target="_blank">ranking</a> of the 12 warmest years. Yet when statistical discipline is observed, 2015 and 2016, the two El Niño years, are tied for warmest. And the years 1998, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2014 are all tied for second warmest.</div>
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In other words, whatever the cause of warming in the 1980s and 1990s, no certain trend is observable since then.</div>
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Shall we posit a theory about all this? U.S. government agencies stopped mentioning uncertainty ranges because they wanted to engender a steady succession of headlines pronouncing the latest year unambiguously the hottest when it wasn’t necessarily so.</div>
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This doesn’t mean you should stop being concerned about a potential human impact on climate. But when government scientists deliberately seek to mislead, it’s a warning to raise your guard.</div>
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For instance, NOAA states its annual temperature estimate as an “anomaly” in relation to the 20th-century average. Do you really believe government scientists can reconstruct a global average temperature for years in the first half of the 20th century with sufficient accuracy to allow comparisons of 1/100ths of a degree?</div>
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You start to notice other things. The numbers keep changing. Years 2005 and 2010 were exactly tied in 2010, but now 2010 is slightly warmer, just enough to impart an upward slope to any graph that ignores statistical uncertainty.</div>
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Government scientists are undoubtedly ready with justifications for each of the countless retroactive adjustments they impose on the data, but are you quite sure they can be trusted?</div>
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Climate science is not a hoax. The U.S. government spends impressive sums to take the increasingly rigorous readings from which a global average temperature is distilled. But other countries like the U.K. and Japan also do sophisticated monitoring and end up with findings roughly similar to the findings of U.S. agencies, yet they don’t feel the need to lie about it. For instance, the U.K. Met Office headlined its 2016 <a class="icon none" href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/2016-record-breaking-year-for-global-temperature" style="-webkit-transition: 0.3s; color: #2fbfbf; text-decoration: none; transition: 0.3s;" target="_blank">report</a> “one of the warmest two years on record.” A reader only had to progress to the third paragraph to discover that the difference over 2015 was one-tenth the margin of error.</div>
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President Trump is a complete novice, but presumably at some point he will climb the learning curve, gain control over his administration, and start making cagier decisions about which fights are worth having. Our guess is that fighting with his administration’s climate scientists won’t seem like much of a priority. And yet, given all the money U.S. taxpayers spend on climate science, a mental freshening wouldn’t be the worst thing. Goddard’s Mr. Schmidt, keeper of a snarling blog that makes frequent use of the slur “denier,” got his start at the New York City-based NASA science lab more than 20 years ago.</div>
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On the slight chance Mr. Trump does make such a move, keep something else in mind: Undifferentiated hysteria will apparently be the media reaction to every Trump action equally whether those actions are entirely justified or entirely indefensible.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-7075786057758216842017-01-24T11:25:00.002-08:002017-01-24T11:25:13.731-08:00Keeping Cool About Hot Temperatures<h2 class="sub-head" itemprop="description" style="color: #4f5757; font-family: Whitney, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0px 16px 14px; padding: 0px;">
Keeping Cool About Hot Temperatures</h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><i>Last year was warmer by 0.04 Celsius, but it was also an El Niño year.</i></span></h2>
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<time class="timestamp" style="color: #878f8f; font-family: Whitney, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 24px;">Updated Jan. 19, 2017 8:21 p.m. ET THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</time></div>
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By now you’ve seen the headline: 2016 was the hottest year on record. The news has been paired with predictions of civilization’s imminent demise. But a closer look at the evidence reveals that the political heat is overwrought—and there’s still no reason to re-engineer the global economy to mitigate small climate fluctuations.</div>
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced this week that last year was the warmest in the agency’s 137-year series, and that 2016 broke the previous record for the third consecutive year. This sounds alarming, until you read that 2016 edged out 2015 by a mere 0.04 degrees Celsius. That’s a fraction of the margin of error. Atmospheric data from satellites detected similarly small warming over previous years. In other words, no one really knows if last year was a record.</div>
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Here’s what we do know: 2015 and 2016 were major years for El Niño, a Pacific trade winds phenomenon known to produce temperature spikes. The Cato Institute’s Patrick Michaels has detailed in <a class="icon none" href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-climate-snow-job-1453664732" style="-webkit-transition: 0.3s; color: #2fbfbf; text-decoration: none; transition: 0.3s;">these pages</a> how in 1998, another big El Niño year, average surface temperatures increased about a quarter-degree Fahrenheit and then dropped in the following years. That is similar to the increase in 2015—and by the end of 2016 temperatures were falling back toward 2014 levels. Even NOAA admits El Niño’s role.</div>
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The underreported news here is that the warming is not nearly as great as the climate-change computer models have predicted. As climatologist Judith Curry testified to Congress in 2014, U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change simulations forecast surface temperatures to increase on average 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade in the early 21st century. The warming over the first 15 years was closer to 0.05 degrees Celsius. The models also can’t explain why more than 40% of the temperature increase since 1900 happened between 1910 and 1945, which accounts for only 10% of the increase in carbon emissions. </div>
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These nuances are important because phrases such as “hottest year ever” are waved around as a pretext for political action that usually involves giving more control over the economy to governments. This is inevitably sold as urgently required to save the planet. </div>
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But even these regulations, taxes and subsidies would do little to reverse global temperature trends, though they could reduce the economic growth and wealth creation needed to cope with the consequences of higher temperatures. That is true of all President Obama ’s ministrations—from the Clean Power Plan to the Paris climate accord to subsidies for Al Gore ’s green-energy portfolio. </div>
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The most inconvenient truth during the Obama years has been that the biggest cause of lower U.S. CO <sub>2</sub> emissions has been the energy shift to natural gas from coal. Yet the climate-change lobby opposes fracking.</div>
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The Earth’s surface has warmed over the last century by close to a degree Celsius, and the trend bears watching. But the additional questions to consider are about future magnitudes and impact, and what if any policies would make a difference without doing serious economic harm. The best insurance against the risks of climate change is economic growth and innovation—more efficient batteries, for example.</div>
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But adding to human knowledge on climate requires a thorough airing and debate over the evidence. That won’t happen as long as alarmists continue to try to shut down debate by spinning doomsday tales about sizzling temperatures.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-15270462323293515292016-12-20T09:48:00.002-08:002016-12-20T11:12:21.929-08:00Solar activity, ocean cycles, & water vapor explain 98% of climate change since 1900, NOT CO2!<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: 16pt;"><a href="http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com/">Climate Change Drivers</a><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<b><span style="font-size: 16pt;">by Dan Pangburn, MSME</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Summary</span></b></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />Thermalization and the complete dominance of water vapor in reverse-thermalization explain why atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has no significant effect on climate. Reported average global temperature (AGT) since before 1900 is accurately (98% match with measured trend) explained by a combination of ocean cycles, sunspot number anomaly time-integral and increased atmospheric water vapor. </span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Introduction</span><o:p></o:p></b><br />
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The only way that energy can significantly leave earth is by thermal radiation. Only solid or liquid bodies and greenhouse gases (ghg) can absorb/emit in the wavelength range of terrestrial radiation. Non-ghg gases must transfer energy to ghg gases (or liquid or solid bodies) for this energy to be radiated.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The word ‘trend’ is used here for temperatures in two different contexts. To differentiate, α-trend is an approximation of the net of ocean surface temperature oscillations after averaging-out the year-to-year fluctuations in reported average global temperatures. The term β-trend applies to the slower average energy change of the planet which is associated with change to the average temperature of the bulk volume of the material (mostly ocean water) involved.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Some ocean cycles have been named according to the particular area of the oceans where they occur. Names such as PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), ENSO (el Nino Southern Oscillation), and AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) might be familiar. They report the temperature of the water near the surface. The average temperature of the bulk water that is participating in these oscillations cannot significantly change so quickly because of high thermal capacitance [1].<o:p></o:p></div>
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This high thermal capacitance absolutely prohibits the rapid (year-to-year) AGT fluctuations which have been reported, from being a result of any credible forcing. According to one assessment [1], the time constant is about 5 years. A likely explanation for the reported year-to-year fluctuations is that they are stochastic phenomena in the over-all process that has been used to determine AGT. A simple calculation shows the standard deviation of the reported annual average measurements to be about ±0.09 K with respect to the trend. The temperature fluctuations of the bulk volume near the surface of the planet are more closely represented by the fluctuations in the trend. The trend is a better indicator of the change in global energy; which is the difference between energy received and energy radiated.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The kinetic theory of gases, some thermodynamics and the rudiments of quantum mechanics provide a rational explanation of what happens when ghg absorb photons of terrestrial thermal radiation.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Refutation of significant influence from CO<sub>2</sub><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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There is multiple evidence (most identified earlier [2] ) that CO<sub>2</sub> has no significant effect on climate:<o:p></o:p></div>
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1. <span class="MsoHyperlink">In the late Ordovician Period, the planet plunged into and warmed up from the Andean/Saharan ice age, all at about 10 times the current CO<sub>2</sub> level [3].</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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2. Over the Phanerozoic eon (last 542 million years) there is no correlation between <span class="MsoHyperlink">CO<sub>2</sub> level</span> and AGT [3, 4].<o:p></o:p></div>
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3. During the last and previous glaciations AGT trend changed directions before CO<sub>2</sub> trend [2].<o:p></o:p></div>
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4. Since AGT has been directly and accurately measured world wide (about 1895), AGT has exhibited up and down trends while CO<sub>2</sub> trend has been only up. [2]<o:p></o:p></div>
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5. Since about 2001, the measured atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> trend has continued to rise while the AGT trend has been essentially flat. [21, 13]<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Thermalization refutes CO<sub>2</sub> influence on climate. </b><b><span style="font-size: 8pt;">(rev 10/21/16)</span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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The relaxation time (amount of time that passes between absorption and emission of a photon by a molecule) for CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere is about 6 <span class="MsoHyperlink">µsec</span> [5, 6]. The elapsed time between collisions between gaseous molecules at sea level average temperature and pressure is about 0.0002 <span class="MsoHyperlink">µsec</span>[7]. Thus, at sea level conditions, it is approximately 6/0.0002 = 30,000 times more likely that a CO<sub>2</sub> molecule, after it has absorbed a photon, will bump into another molecule, losing at least part of the momentum and energy it acquired from the photon. After multiple collisions, essentially all of the added photonic energy becomes distributed among other molecules and the probability of the CO<sub>2</sub> molecule emitting a photon at sea level conditions becomes negligible. The process of distribution of the energy to other molecules is thermal conduction in the gas. The process of absorbing photons and conducting the absorbed energy to other molecules is thermalization. <span class="MsoHyperlink">Thermalized energy carries no identity of the molecule that absorbed it.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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Water vapor molecules can absorb (and emit) photons at hundreds of wavelengths in the wavelength range of significant terrestrial thermal radiation (nearly all in the wavelength range 6-100 microns) compared to only one (15 micron) for CO<sub>2</sub> (wave length range of the single absorption band for CO<sub>2</sub> is broadened to about 14-16 microns at sea level due to pressure, etc. but the multiple absorb/emit wave length bands for water vapor are equally broadened). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<span class="MsoHyperlink">Reverse thermalization, where the warmed jostling molecules excite some molecules to emit a photon is almost entirely to water vapor molecules at sea level conditions. The reason is relaxation time of some water vapor molecule rotational emission lines is 0.5 µsec compared to 6 µsec for CO<sub>2</sub> molecules and/or the thousands more ‘opportunities’ for emission by water vapor.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span class="MsoHyperlink">Water vapor has more ‘opportunities’ for emission because t</span>here are about 35 times as many water vapor molecules in the atmosphere below about 5 km as there are CO<sub>2</sub> molecules (See Figure 2) and each water vapor molecule has hundreds of emission bands compared to only one band for each CO<sub>2</sub> molecule. Most, if not all, of the photons emitted by the water vapor molecules are at wavelengths different from the narrow band CO<sub>2</sub> molecules can absorb. Effectively, energy absorbed by CO<sub>2</sub> is rerouted to space via water vapor.<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color: windowtext;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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At very high altitudes, molecule spacing and time between collision increases to where reverse-thermalization to CO<sub>2</sub> molecules becomes significant as does radiation from them to space.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Figure 1 is a typical graph showing top-of-atmosphere (TOA) thermal radiation from the planet. The TOA radiation from different locations on the planet can be decidedly different, e.g. as shown in Figure 9 of Reference [8]. Figure 1, here, might be over a temperate ocean and thus typical for much of earth’s surface.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" filled="f" id="_x0000_t75" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" stroked="f"><v:stroke joinstyle="miter"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:formulas><v:path gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect" o:extrusionok="f"><o:lock aspectratio="t" v:ext="edit"></o:lock></v:path></v:stroke></v:shapetype><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_8" o:spid="_x0000_i1038" style="height: 330pt; visibility: visible; width: 440.25pt;" type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata o:title="terrestrial radiation & absorption" src="file:///C:\Users\Dan\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image001.jpg"></v:imagedata></v:shape><o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Figure 1: Terrestrial thermal radiation and absorption.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Approximately 98% of atmospheric molecules are non-ghg nitrogen and oxygen. They are substantially warmed by thermalization of the photonic energy absorbed by the ghg molecules.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Figure 2: Water vapor declines rapidly with altitude. [9] (original from NASA)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Thermalized energy carries no identity of the molecule that absorbed it. The thermalized radiation warms the air, reducing its density, causing updrafts which are exploited by soaring birds, sailplanes, and occasionally hail. Updrafts are matched by downdrafts elsewhere, usually spread out but sometimes recognized by pilots and passengers as ‘air pockets’ and micro bursts.<o:p></o:p></div>
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A common observation of thermalization by way of water vapor is cloudless nights cool faster when absolute water vapor content of the atmosphere is lower.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Jostling between gas molecules (observed as temperature and pressure) sometimes causes reverse-thermalization. At low to medium altitudes, EMR emission stimulated by reverse-thermalization is essentially all by way of water vapor.<o:p></o:p></div>
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At altitudes below about 10 km a comparatively steep population gradient (decline with increasing altitude) in water vapor molecules favors outward radiation with increasing amounts escaping directly to space. At higher altitudes, increased molecule spacing and greatly diminished water vapor molecules favors reverse thermalization to CO<sub>2</sub>. This is observed in the sharp peaks at nominal absorb/emit wavelengths of non-condensing ghg (See Figure 1).<o:p></o:p></div>
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Thermalization results in the influence of CO<sub>2</sub> on climate to be not significantly different from zero.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Environmental Protection Agency mistake<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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The US EPA asserts [10] Global Warming Potential (GWP) is a measure of “effects on the Earth's warming” with “Two key ways in which these [ghg] gases differ from each other are their ability to absorb energy (their "radiative efficiency"), and how long they stay in the atmosphere (also known as their "lifetime").” <o:p></o:p></div>
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The EPA calculation overlooks the very real phenomenon of thermalization. Trace ghg (all ghg except water vapor) have no significant effect on climate because absorbed energy is immediately thermalized. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Water vapor </b><b><span style="font-size: 8pt;">(Rev 8/26/16)</span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Water vapor is the ghg which makes earth warm enough for life as we know it. Increased atmospheric water vapor contributes to planet warming. Water vapor molecules are far more effective at absorbing terrestrial thermal radiation than CO<sub>2</sub> molecules (even if thermalization did not eliminate CO<sub>2</sub> as a significant warmer). Atmospheric water vapor has increased primarily (≈ 98%) as a result of increased irrigation, with comparatively tiny contributions from cooling towers at electricity generating facilities, and increased burning of hydrogen rich fossil fuels especially natural gas which is nearly all methane. Of course increased water vapor causes the planet to warm which further increases water vapor so there is a cumulative effect (in control system analysis as done by engineers, this is called feedback. The term ‘feedback’ has a somewhat different meaning to Climate Scientists). This cumulative effect also amplifies cooldowns. More water vapor in the atmosphere means more warming, probably acceleration of the hydrologic cycle and increased probability of floods. <span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color: windowtext;">How much of recent flooding is simply bad luck in the randomness of weather and how much is because of the ‘thumb on the scale’ of added water vapor?</span></span> Water vapor exhibits a logarithmic decline in effect of equal added increments (Fig. 3 of Ref. [12]).</span><br />
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Essentially all of the ghg effect on earth comes from water vapor. Clear air water vapor measurements over the non-ice-covered oceans in the form of total precipitable water (TPW) have been made since about 1987 by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) [11]. A graph of this measured ‘global’ average anomaly data, with a reference value of 28.73 added, is shown in the left graph of Figure 3. The trend of this data is extrapolated both earlier and later using CO<sub>2</sub> level as a proxy, with the expression kg/m^2 TPW = 4.5118 * ppmvCO<sub>2</sub>^0.31286. The result is the right-hand graph of Figure 3. (The 1940-1950 flat exists in the Law Dome CO<sub>2</sub> data base.)<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Figure 3: Average clear air total precipitable water over all non-ice-covered oceans.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Clouds (average emissivity about 0.5) consist of solid and/or liquid water particles that radiate approximately according to Planck spectrum and Stephan-Boltzmann (S-B) law (each particle contains millions of molecules).<o:p></o:p></div>
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The perception water vapor content of the atmosphere depends even minutely on CO<sub>2</sub> content is profoundly misleading and precisely wrong because it ignores the partial pressure of water.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>The AGT Model<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Most modeling of global climate has been with Global Climate Models (GCMs) where physical laws are applied to hundreds of thousands of discrete blocks and the interactions between the discrete blocks are analyzed using super computers with an end result being calculation of the AGT trajectory. This might be described as a ‘bottom up’ approach. Although theoretically promising, multiple issues currently exist with this approach. Reference [13] <a href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/still-epic-fail-73-climate-models-vs-measurements-running-5-year-means/" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;"></a>discloses that nearly all of the more than 100 current GCMs are obviously faulty. The few which appear to follow measurements might even be statistical outliers of the ‘consensus’ method. The growing separation between calculated and measured AGT as shown at Figure 17 in Ref. [14] also suggests some factor is missing.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The approach in the analysis presented here is ‘top down’. This type of approach has been called ‘emergent structures analysis’. As described by Dr. Roy Spencer in his book <i><span style="text-transform: uppercase;">THE GREAT GLOBAL WARMING BLUNDER</span>, </i>“Rather than model the system from the bottom up with many building blocks, one looks at how the system as a whole behaves.” That approach is used here with strict compliance with physical laws. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The basis for assessment of AGT is the first law of thermodynamics, conservation of energy, applied to the entire planet as a single entity. Much of the available data are forcings or proxies for forcings which must be integrated (mathematically as in calculus, i.e. accumulated over time) to compute energy change. Energy change divided by effective thermal capacitance is temperature change. Temperature change is expressed as anomalies which are the differences between annual averages of measured temperatures and some baseline reference temperature; usually the average over a previous multiple-year time period. (Monthly anomalies, which are not used here, are referenced to previous average for the same month to account for seasonal norms.)<o:p></o:p></div>
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The AGT model, a summation of contributing factors, is expressed in this equation:<o:p></o:p></div>
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Tanom = (A,y)+thcap<sup>-1</sup> * Σ<sup>y</sup><sub>i=1895</sub> {B*[S(i)-Savg] + C*ln[TPW(i)/TPW(1895)] – F * [(T(i)/T(1895))<sup>4</sup> – 1]} + D (1)<o:p></o:p></div>
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Where:<o:p></o:p></div>
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Tanom = Calculated average global temperature anomaly with respect to the baseline of the anomaly for the measured temperature data set, K<o:p></o:p></div>
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A = highest-to-lowest extent in the saw-tooth approximation of the net effect on planet AGT of all ocean cycles, K<o:p></o:p></div>
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y = year being calculated<o:p></o:p></div>
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(A,y) = value of the net effect of ocean cycles on AGT in year y (α-trend), K<o:p></o:p></div>
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thcap = effective thermal capacitance [1] of the planet = 17±7 W yr m<sup>-2</sup> K<sup>-1</sup><o:p></o:p></div>
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1895 = Selected beginning year of acceptably accurate world wide temperature measurements.<o:p></o:p></div>
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B = combined proxy factor and influence coefficient for energy change due to sunspot number anomaly change, W yr m<sup>-2</sup><o:p></o:p></div>
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S(i) = average daily V2 sunspot numbers [15,16] in year i<o:p></o:p></div>
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Savg = baseline for determining SSN anomalies <o:p></o:p></div>
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C = influence coefficient for energy change due to TPW change, W yr m<sup>-2</sup><o:p></o:p></div>
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TPW(i) = total precipitable water in year i, kg m<sup>-2</sup><o:p></o:p></div>
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TPW(1895) = TPW in 1895, same units as TPW(i) <o:p></o:p></div>
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F = 1 to account for change to S-B radiation from earth due to AGT change, W yr m<sup>-2</sup><o:p></o:p></div>
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T(i) = AGT calculated by adding T(1895) to the reported anomaly, K<o:p></o:p></div>
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T(1895) = AGT in 1895 = 286.707 K<o:p></o:p></div>
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D = offset that shifts the calculated trajectory vertically on the graph, without changing its shape, to best match the measured data, K (equivalent to changing the anomaly reference temperature).<o:p></o:p></div>
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Accuracy of the model is determined using the Coefficient of Determination, R<sup> 2</sup>, to compare calculated AGT with measured AGT.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Approximate effect on the planet of the net of ocean surface temperature (SST)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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The average global ocean surface temperature oscillation is only about ±1/6 K. It is defined to<i> not significantly add or remove planet energy</i>. The net influence of SST oscillation on reported AGT is defined as α-trend. In the decades immediately prior to 1941 the amplitude range of the trends was not significantly influenced by change to any candidate internal forcing effect; so the observed amplitude of the effect on AGT of the net ocean surface temperature trend anomaly then, must be approximately the same as the amplitude of the part of the AGT trend anomaly due to ocean oscillations since then. This part is approximately 0.36 K total highest-to-lowest extent with a period of approximately 64 years (verified by high R<sup>2</sup> in Table 1). <o:p></o:p></div>
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The measured AGT trajectory (Figure 9) suggests that the least-biased simple wave form of the effective ocean surface temperature oscillation is approximately saw-toothed. Approximation of the sea surface temperature anomaly oscillation can be described as varying linearly from –A/2 K in 1909 to approximately +A/2 K in 1941 and linearly back to the 1909 value in 1973. This cycle repeats before and after with a period of 64 years.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Because the actual magnitude of the effect of ocean oscillation in any year is needed, the expression to account for the contribution of the ocean oscillation in each year to AGT is given by the following:<o:p></o:p></div>
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ΔTosc = (A,y) K (degrees) (2)<o:p></o:p></div>
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where the contribution of the net of ocean oscillations to AGT change is the magnitude of the effect on AGT of the surface temperature anomaly trend of the oscillation in year y, and <b>A</b> is the maximum highest-to-lowest extent of the effect on AGT of the net ocean surface temperature oscillation. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Equation (2) is graphed in Figure 4 for A=0.36.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Figure 4: Ocean surface temperature oscillations (α-trend) do not significantly affect the bulk energy of the planet.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>Comparison of approximation with ‘named’ ocean cycles</b><b><span style="font-size: 8pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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Named ocean cycles include, in the Pacific north of 20N, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); in the equatorial Pacific, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and in the north Atlantic, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).<o:p></o:p></div>
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Ocean cycles are perceived to contribute to AGT in two ways: The first is the direct measurement of sea surface temperature (SST). The second is warmer SST increases atmospheric water vapor which acts as a forcing and therefore has a time-integral effect on temperature. The approximation, (A,y), accounts for both ways.<o:p></o:p></div>
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SST data is available for three named cycles: PDO index, ENSO 3.4 index and AMO index. Successful accounting for oscillations is achieved for PDO and ENSO when considering these as forcings (with appropriate proxy factors) instead of direct measurements. As forcings, their influence accumulates with time. The proxy factors must be determined separately for each forcing. The measurements are available since 1900 for PDO [17] and ENSO3.4 [18]. This PDO data set has the PDO temperature measurements reduced by the average SST measurements for the planet.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The contribution of PDO and ENSO3.4 to AGT is calculated by:<o:p></o:p></div>
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PDO_NINO = <span style="font-size: 16pt;">Σ<sup>y</sup><sub>i=1900</sub> (</span>0.017*PDO(i) + 0.009 * ENSO34(i)<span style="font-size: 16pt;">) </span>(3)<o:p></o:p></div>
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Where:<o:p></o:p></div>
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PDO(i) = PDO index [17] in year i<o:p></o:p></div>
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ENSO34(i) = ENSO 3.4 index [18] in year i<o:p></o:p></div>
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How this calculation compares to the idealized approximation used in Equation (2) with A = 0.36 is shown in Figure 5.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Figure 5: Comparison of idealized approximation of ocean cycle effect and the calculated effect from PDO and ENSO.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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The AMO index [19] is formed from area-weighted and de-trended SST data. It is shown with two different amounts of smoothing in Figure 6 along with the saw-tooth approximation for the entire planet per Equation (2) with A = 0.36.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Figure 6: Comparison of idealized approximation of ocean cycle effect and the AMO index.</b></div>
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The high Coefficients of Determination in Table 1 and the comparisons in Figures 5 and 6 corroborate the assumption that the saw-tooth profile with a period of 64 years provides adequate approximation of the net effect of all named and unnamed ocean cycles in the calculated AGT anomalies.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Atmospheric carbon dioxide<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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The level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) has been widely measured over the years. Values from ancient times were determined by measurements on gas bubbles which had been trapped in ice cores extracted from Antarctic glaciers [20]. Spatial variations between sources have been found to be inconsequential [2]. The best current source for atmospheric carbon dioxide level [21] is Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Extrapolation to future CO<sub>2</sub> levels, shown in Figure 7, is accomplished using a second-order curve fit to data measured at Mauna Loa from 1980 to 2012. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Figure 7: Measured atmospheric carbon dioxide level since 1880 and extrapolation to 2037.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>Sunspot numbers<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Sunspots have been regularly recorded since 1610. In 2015 historical (V1) SSN were reevaluated in light of current perceptions and more sensitive instruments and are designated as V2. The V2 SSN data set is used throughout this assessment. V2 SSN [15] are shown in Figure 8.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Sunspot numbers (SSN) are seen to be in cycles each lasting approximately 11 years. The current cycle, called 24, has been comparatively low, has peaked, and is now in decline.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The Maunder Minimum (1645-1700), an era of extremely low SSN, was associated with the Little Ice Age. The Dalton Minimum (1790-1820) was a period of low SSN and low temperatures. An unnamed period of low SSN (1880-1930) was also accompanied by comparatively low temperatures.<o:p></o:p></div>
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An assessment of this is that sunspots are somehow related to the net energy retained by the planet, as indicated by changes to the average global temperature trend. Fewer sunspots are associated with cooling, and more sunspots are associated with warming. Thus the hypothesis is made that SSN are proxies for the rate at which the planet accumulates (or loses) radiant energy over time. Therefore the time-integral of the SSN anomalies is a proxy for most of the amount of energy retained by the planet above or below breakeven.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Also, a lower solar cycle over a longer period might result in the same increase in energy retained by the planet as a higher solar cycle over a shorter period. Both magnitude and time are accounted for by taking the time-integral of the SSN anomalies, which is simply the sum of annual mean SSN (each minus Savg) over the period of study.<o:p></o:p></div>
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SSN change correlates with change to Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). However, TSI change can only account for less than 10% of the AGT change on earth. Because AGT change has been found to correlate with SSN change, the SSN change must act as a catalyst on some other factor (perhaps clouds [22]) which have a substantial effect on AGT.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Figure 8: V2 SSN [15]<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Possible values for Savg are subject to two constraints. Initially they are determined as that which results in derived coefficients and maximum R<sup>2</sup>. However, calculated values must also result in rational values for calculated AGT at the depths of the Little Ice Age. The necessity to calculate a rational LIA AGT is a somewhat more sensitive constraint. The selected value for Savg results in calculated LIA AGT of approximately 1 K less than the recent trend which appears rational and is consistent with most LIA AGT assessments.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>PLEASE CONTINUE FOR REMAINDER OF ARTICLE AT DAN PANGBURN'S SITE for the </b></span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-size: 16px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Identity of the 3 factors in the equation which matches average global temperature (98% correlation from 1895-2015) at </span><span style="color: #0084b4;"><span class="tco-ellipsis" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></span><a class="twitter-timeline-link" data-expanded-url="http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com" dir="ltr" href="https://t.co/sRoRdGYW8q" rel="nofollow" style="color: #0084b4; font-size: 16px; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank" title="http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com"><span class="invisible" style="font-size: 0px; line-height: 0;">http://</span><span class="js-display-url">globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com</span><span style="color: #0084b4;"><span class="invisible" style="font-size: 0px; line-height: 0;"></span></span><span class="tco-ellipsis"><span class="invisible" style="font-size: 0px; line-height: 0;"> </span></span></a>. </b></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">HINT: CO2 is an insignificant factor. From the conclusions:</b></div>
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<b>Conclusions<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>Three</b> factors explain essentially all of Average Global Temperature change since before 1900. They are <b>ocean cycles</b>, accounted for with an approximation, influence quantified by a proxy; the SSN [<b>sunspot numbers</b>] anomaly time-integral <b>and, the gain in atmospheric water vapor measured</b> since 1987 and extrapolated <b>before and after using measured CO<sub>2</sub> as a proxy.</b></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-38794558103141151132016-12-19T13:33:00.002-08:002016-12-19T14:28:24.939-08:00WSJ: The EPA’s Science Deniers: The agency changes its view on fracking & water without evidence<h1 class="wsj-article-headline" itemprop="headline" style="background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Chronicle Display', serif; font-size: 40px; line-height: 1.2em; margin: 0px 0px 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-epas-science-deniers-1482099327">The EPA’s Science Deniers</a></h1>
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The agency changes its view on fracking and water without evidence.</h2>
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<img alt="Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy at the National Press Club November 21, 2016 in Washington, DC." data-enlarge="https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-RG807_3frack_IM_20161218150049.jpg" data-in-at4units-src="https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-RG807_3frack_GR_20161218150049.jpg" data-in-base-src="https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-RG807_3frack_GR_20161218150049.jpg" data-intent="" height="416" src="https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-RG807_3frack_GR_20161218150049.jpg" style="background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; display: block; left: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy at the National Press Club November 21, 2016 in..." width="640" /><span class="image-enlarge" style="background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: 50px 50px; border: 0px; bottom: 10px; cursor: pointer; height: 50px; left: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 50px; z-index: 999;">ENLARGE</span></div>
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<span class="wsj-article-caption-content" style="background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy at the National Press Club November 21, 2016 in Washington, DC.</span> <span class="wsj-article-credit" itemprop="creator" style="background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 11px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="wsj-article-credit-tag" style="background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">PHOTO: </span>GETTY IMAGES</span></div>
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<time class="timestamp" style="background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; color: #666666; display: block; font-family: 'Whitney SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 2.2rem; margin: 0px 0px 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Updated Dec. 18, 2016 5:41 p.m. ET</time><br />
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Speaking of fake news, the political scientists at the EPA have rewritten the conclusion of a report in order to cast doubt on the safety of hydraulic fracturing. Consider this EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy’s parting gift to Donald Trump.</div>
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Last week the EPA issued the final version of a five-year study evaluating the impact of hydraulic fracturing, the oil and gas drilling method known as fracking, on groundwater contamination. The draft report released last year for public comment concluded that fracking has not “led to widespread, systemic impact on drinking water resources in the United States.” The EPA’s findings haven’t changed, but its conclusion has.</div>
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After being barraged by plaintiff attorneys and Hollywood celebrities, the EPA in its final report substituted its determination of no “widespread, systemic impact” with the hypothetical that fracking “can impact drinking water resources under some circumstances” and that “impacts can range in frequency and severity” depending on the circumstances. </div>
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Any technology has the potential to inflict some damage—self-driving cars can be hacked to go haywire—and the EPA explains that drinking-water contamination could occur if wastewater is incorrectly disposed or wells are poorly sealed. In Pavillion, Wyo., the EPA’s faulty construction of a monitoring well caused contamination. </div>
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Yet after reviewing more than 1,000 studies, the EPA couldn’t find more than limited evidence—mostly alleged by plaintiff attorneys—of operational failures causing contamination. That the EPA uncovered only a few instances of contamination among a million some wells reinforces its prior conclusion that fracking doesn’t threaten the drinking-water supply.</div>
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The EPA now asserts that “significant data gaps and uncertainties” prevent it from “calculating or estimating the national frequency of impacts.” For instance, water-quality data was not collected everywhere prior to the introduction of fracking, which has allowed plaintiff attorneys to ascribe any contamination to oil and gas companies. </div>
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Methane can leak into groundwater naturally, and the EPA even notes that “site-specific cases of alleged impacts” are “particularly challenging to understand” because “the subsurface environment is complex.” Scientists have documented methane in the shallow subsurface of Susquehanna County, Pa.—one area of alleged fracking contamination—dating back more than 200 years.</div>
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So after spending $30 million and five years to produce a risk assessment, the EPA has found no evidence that fracking causes widespread contamination. Two years ago, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo used the pretext of scientific “uncertainties” to ban fracking, and the EPA’s revised report will give him cover for depriving upstate residents of its economic benefits. Progressives are using the report as ammunition in their media campaign against fracking, and plaintiff attorneys will use it in lawsuits. </div>
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Liberals denounce anyone who cites uncertainties about carbon’s climate impact as “deniers.” So it’s ironic that they are now justifying their opposition to fracking based on scientific uncertainties. As for the EPA’s science, bending to public comment from litigants and actor Mark Ruffalo does not instill confidence in the agency’s integrity.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-86824980753875511912016-12-18T18:17:00.002-08:002016-12-18T18:17:50.727-08:00The Week That Was: 2016-12-17 <div class="page" title="Page 1">
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<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 18.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">The Week That Was: 2016-12-17 (December 17, 2016)
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<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 18.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
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<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 18.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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<span style="color: rgb(100.000000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Quote of the Week</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">. “</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">The data are reality. The model is fantasy. Why substitute fantasy for
reality?” </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Statistician William Briggs
</span><br />
<pre><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 50.200000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;"> ###################################################
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<span style="color: rgb(100.000000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Number of the Week: </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">666
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<span style="color: rgb(100.000000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">THIS WEEK:
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<span style="color: rgb(100.000000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Data Manipulation: </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">As twice-elected president of a science society formed in 1871, with early
members important to the beginning of climate measurements covering the US, this author has
been very concerned with the manipulation of historic data that seems to have taken place over
the past few decades. In effect, a warming trend seems to have been established in the data where
one did not exist before. As we saw during Climategate, the Climatic Research Unit at the
University of East Anglia “lost” historic data when data was mathematically adjusted.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Similarly, as researchers Joe D’Aleo and Tony Heller have demonstrated, the data entrusted to
NOAA; and its subordinate organizations the US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN), the
Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), and the National Climatic Data Center
(NCDC); seem to have been manipulated to give the illusion of a warming trend by lowering the
earlier data. Now, Paul Homewood, of the UK, points out that NASA’s Goddard Institute of
Space Studies (NASA-GISS) has changed its own data since 2011 without notification as to why.
The adjustments to its December 2016 version give the illusion of a stronger warming trend than
existed in their 2011 data.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Each of these changes can be small, but the cumulative effect of persistent changes can be
significant. Sometimes revisions are necessary, but they should be publicly announced. These
exercises, without full public disclosure, undermine the credibility of the agencies involved.
Further, it is not clear if the historic data, prior to quiet revisions, continue to exist. Until these
have been independently examined, any studies based on these surface temperatures are
questionable.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Since the general Climate Establishment has not expressed alarm over these small, but persistent,
adjustments, it is ironical that many in the Climate Establishment are expressing alarm over the
preservation of existing climate data. Apparently, they fear that the Trump administration may
secretly manipulate the manipulated. Any changes to the data should be made with full public
disclosure, to include the effects of the changes on historic trends, with the historic data
preserved.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">As a side note: the historic data for states indicates that the 1930s was the hottest decade in the
US. However, carbon dioxide (CO2) warming, as well as other greenhouse gas warming, should
occur at night, with a lessening of energy flow from the earth to space. Thus, the lack of a
warming trend in daytime highs does not mean there is no effect from CO2.
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Given its address, perhaps NASA-GISS should be called NASA-Broadway to avoid assuming it
is engaged in the same science that placed man on the moon. See links under Lowering Standards
and last week’s TWTW on NASA-GISS.<br />
********************<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">AGU Mysteries – Solar: </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Even though the 2016 meeting of the American Geophysical Union
(AGU) in San Francisco featured anti-Trump protests, it produced some interesting findings. In
one presentation with press release, and paper to soon follow, solar coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) create shock waves that cause a warming and expansion of the upper atmosphere and
trace amounts of nitric oxide, which cools it. (In the US, nitric oxide is classified as an extremely
hazardous substance under the U.S. Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act of
1986).
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">The warming and cooling of the upper atmosphere is an issue that has not been fully explained
and no doubt researchers on the issue look forward to the publication of the paper.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">As a side note, in his testimony of February 2, 2016, John Christy avoided the issue of uncertainty
as to the warming and cooling of the upper atmosphere by limiting his comparison of the
performance of global climate models against data to 50,000 feet and below. A similar limitation
in altitude appears in the August 2016 paper by Wallace, Christy, and D’Aleo.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">See links under Science: Is the Sun Rising?, Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?, Challenging the
Orthodoxy, and After US Election – Opposed.<br />
********************<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">AGU Mysteries – Energy Flow: </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Willis Eschenbach and Anthony Watts had an intriguing poster
at AGU. Formally displayed posters have now become commonplace at such conventions due to
the lack of time and space for formal presentations. Using satellite measured water vapor data
from Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) for a 1°x1° gridded total precipitable water (TPW) dataset,
the study estimated increase in dowelling longwave radiation from 1988 to 2015.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">As expressed in TWTW for the past several weeks, the carbon dioxide warming theory expressed
by the 1979 Charney report and accepted by the National Academy of Sciences has two
components: a slight warming from CO2 and a more powerful warming from increased water
vapor. Yet, the proposed warming of the atmosphere is not occurring after over 35 years, as shown
in the work by Christy. The work by Eschenbach and Watts suggests that the expected increase in
temperatures is not occurring because global climate is not nearly as sensitive to greenhouse gases
as stated in the Charney report. Again, this lack of climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases brings
into question EPA’s finding that greenhouse gases, especially CO2, endanger public health and
welfare – the EPA’s endangerment finding.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">This type of research is greatly need. It would be desirable to see continuation of the work by
Eschenbach & Watts. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, and
the past several TWTWs.<br />
********************
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Improving the SEPP Web Site – Table of Contents: </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">To make the web site a more effective
resource, we have drafted a Table of Contents (TOC) for the 6,000 plus links we have added over
the past 6 years. Scientific, energy, and policy issues are emphasized. Strictly political issues are
largely ignored.
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">TWTW readers have requested an index for the web site, but a TOC should address their
concerns. It will be easier to establish and maintain, with changes made as needed.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">To make adding links into the TOC as easy as possible, we designed a program with a scheme
based on alphabetical ranking followed by numerical ranking.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">For example, the 4 major categories are alphabetical 1) Climate Science; 2) Energy; 3) Policy;
and 4) Politics. Then, under Climate Science we have: 1.1 Acid-Alkaline Waters; 1.2 Agriculture
Issues and so on. This scheme may not appear to be as logical as order of importance, but it
should save considerable man-hours in classifying links as well as adding future classifications.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">The proposed Table of Contents for the Web Site can be found at: </span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://sepp.org/display_toc.cfm</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">.
Only the proposed TOC appears, with no instructions, etc.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Comments are most welcome.<br />
********************<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Models or Data? </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">On his web site statistician William Briggs asks an important question: Why
use models or statistics when simple data will do? This question can apply to global climate
models. The models are not performing well where they should be performing the best – in the
atmosphere, where greenhouse gas warming should be occurring. The impact on the surface of
this warming is secondary. Further, surface data are highly influenced by other human activities,
poor siting, poor coverage, and questionable maintenance.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Though not discussed, simple equations may better fit local conditions that modifying un-
validated global climate models for regions. Regional data may be better for suggesting future
climate change. Simultaneous equation models may be better for 30 to 50 year projections than
the current climate models, which are producing highly questionable results in the near-term, not
to speak of the long-term. See link under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">********************<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Political Games: </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">President-elect Trump’s appointments continue to shake the establishment. As
mentioned above, parts of the Climate Establishment, that have not been disturbed by the
disappearance of historic data and questionable modifications, fear that under Trump, the data will
disappear. The appointment of Oklahoma Attorney General Pruitt for EPA Administrator is
condemned by many, but Pruitt has adhered to the law when he has challenged EPA for
overstepping its authority. Also, he has punished companies that broke the law.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Former Texas Governor Perry for head of the Department of Energy brings up other questions,
such as his embrace of wind power. It is becoming increasingly evident in the UK, South
Australia, and elsewhere, that the unreliability of wind brings a real hidden cost in the reliability
of the energized grid, thus to consumers. As touched upon in the recent report on the South
Australia blackout by the Australian Energy Market Operator, solar and wind have low inertia
while heavy spinning systems such as turbines in coal-fired power plants have high inertia. The
advantage with high inertia systems is that they maintain a given frequency in the grid, which is
an energized system. Texas seems to have experienced problems on extremely cold nights when
the wind does not blow.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">The selection of Exxon President Rex Tillerson for Secretary of State brings up a host of
objections, including his dealings with Russia. Also, he favored a carbon tax and questioned the
work of those who questioned CO2-caused global warming. Yet, he has maintained a robust
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">intelligence unit at Exxon gathering hard data on economic conditions and trends in countries in
which Exxon does business. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said: “He’s highly
respected around the world, he’s deeply knowledgeable.” “There’s a very thin line between oil,
diplomacy and geopolitics.” Also, Tillerson is respected by former Shell Oil President Hofmeister,
an Exxon competitor. One should note that Exxon was not a major player in the shale revolution.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">See links in three categories under After US Election, and under Energy Issues – Australia
********************<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">92 Feet (28 meters) Under</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">: As the Obama administration is preparing to depart, it seems to be
venting a contempt for extraction industries. The out-going governor of North Dakota wrote about
the Dakota Access pipeline:
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“This particular pipe is state-of-the-art when it comes to safety. </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">It will be buried 92 feet below
the bottom of the Missouri River</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">, it will be double the strength of pipe buried on land, and it will
have sophisticated flow monitoring devices on both sides of the river with automatic shut-off
valves.”
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Very simply, the political appointees in the Corps of Engineers have no basis in safety concerns
for cancelling permits for a pipeline, the laying of which is 99.98% complete. Developed in the
1930s, horizontal directional drilling (HDD) in oil fields is a technique not generally used for
other purposes until recent years with the development of mud motors, in the 70s and subsequent
development of precision guidance systems (measurement while drilling (MWD)) in three-
dimensional space. It is now widely used in urban areas for power, water, and sewer lines, etc.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Additionally, Department of Interior Secretary Sally Jewell claims the importance of science in
this administration, while the Department cancelled a permitted mining operation in Minnesota,
without evidence of harm, because it was in the region of (near?) a wilderness area. It is difficult
to predict what other economic harm the administration will do in the next 5 weeks, whether the
actions are within permitted powers or not. See links under EPA and other Regulators on the
March and Energy Issues -- US
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">********************<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">No TWTW Next Week</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">: With the Holidays, there will be no TWTW next week and there will be
a brief one on the following week.<br />
********************<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Number of the Week: 666</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">. The new EPA report on the dangers of hydraulic fracturing to
drinking water is 666 pages long, with a 50-page summary. The devil is in the details – there are
none. The study presents no new data of hydraulic fracturing contaminating drinking water,
beyond the issues discussed in the past. The issues are well controlled by state agencies. The
report discusses “data gaps” preventing quantitative analysis. Yet, data is collected by state
agencies and generally available on web sites. In the central issue of actual contamination, the
report is almost as “data free” as the EPA endangerment finding.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Issues remain, such as treating and re-using fracking water with chemicals and sand, and treating
and disposing of excess water, brine, from wells in certain areas such as Oklahoma. But this
report is not particularly useful for these issues. See links under EPA and other Regulators on the
March.
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<span style="color: rgb(100.000000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">We ask you to make a generous, tax-deductible donation to SEPP, an IRS recognized 501(c)3
organization. There is much to be done, to undo the damage to the economy by the current
administration.
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(100.000000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Please address your check to:
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(100.000000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">SEPP<br />
P.O. Box 1126
Springfield, VA 22151
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(100.000000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Alternatively, you may donate through PayPal. See Donate at www.sepp.org.
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(100.000000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">TWTW has been accused of bias, and it is. It is more focused on what scientists can
demonstrate by using evidence – hard data, and not so much on what they can think or
speculate.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Thank you -- whether you celebrate Hanukkah, Christmas, or other holy days during this time, we
wish you and your family happiness in this blessed season and a joyful new year.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Kenneth Haapala, President<br />
Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">SEPP is a 501(c)3 organization incorporated in Virginia with the Federal Tax ID of #54-1645372.
The donated funds will be used exclusively in furtherance of SEPP’s charitable purpose and will
not be used to fulfill any pledge, personal obligation, or lobbying activities. SEPP provides no
direct benefit to donors as a result of their donations.
</span><br />
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<span style="color: rgb(100.000000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">NEWS YOU CAN USE:
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Science: Is the Sun Rising?
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Researchers dial in to 'thermostat' in Earth’s upper atmosphere
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Press release, University of Colorado Boulder, Dec 14, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.colorado.edu/today/2016/12/14/researchers-dial-thermostat-earths-upper-atmosphere
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Revealed: 'Natural thermostat' that cools the air in Earth's atmosphere during violent solar
storms<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Libby Plummer, Mail Online, Dec 14, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4034016/Natural-thermostat-cools-air-Earth-s-
atmosphere-violent-solar-storms-revealed.html
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Solar pollution?]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Current Solar Cycle Weakest In 2 Centuries! And Grant Foster’s “Far-Fetched” Model
Claims<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">The Sun in November 2016. And models coming back to reality<br />
By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Dec 16,
2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://notrickszone.com/2016/12/16/current-solar-cycle-weakest-in-2-centuries-and-grant-fosters-
far-fetched-model-claims/#sthash.WVYDMF5I.dpbs
</span><br />
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<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Challenging the Orthodoxy -- NIPCC
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Overcoming Chaotic Behavior of Climate Models
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By S. Fred Singer, SEPP, July 2010
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/Chaotic_Behavior_July_2011_Final.doc
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus<br />
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://climatechangereconsidered.org/<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Download with no charge
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">Summary</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">: </span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">Summary</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">: </span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Challenging the Orthodoxy
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Prepared Testimony to House Committee on Science, Space & Technology
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By John Christy, UAH, Feb 2, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/HHRG-114-SY-
WState-JChristy-20160202.pdf
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">On the Existence of a “Tropical Hotspot” & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment
Finding<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Wallace, Christy, and D’Aleo, Independent Researchers, August 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/ef-cpp-sc-2016-data-ths-paper-ex-sum-
101416.pdf
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Challenging climate sensitivity: ‘Observational Quantification of Water Vapor Radiative
Forcing’ #AGU16 presentation<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Willis Eschenbach and Anthony Watts. WUWT, Dec 14, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/14/challenging-climate-sensitivity-observational-
quantification-of-water-vapor-radiative-forcing-our-agu16-presentation/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Remember when peat bogs were going to release deadly carbon? Never mind.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/13/remember-when-peat-bogs-were-going-to-release-
deadly-carbon-never-mind/
</span><br />
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<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Defending the Orthodoxy
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Trump’s Choice on Climate Change
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Stephen Cheney, Retired brigadier general in the US Marine Corps, is CEO of the American
Security Project, Project Syndicate, Dec 12, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-climate-change-security-risk-by-stephen-
cheney-2016-12
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Where is the physical evidence that CO2 is the primary cause of global
warming/climate change? The pentagon reports give none.]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Questioning the Orthodoxy
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Don’t Use Statistical Models (When You Don’t Have To. Which Is Nearly Always)
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By William Briggs, His Blog, Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://wmbriggs.com/post/20256/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“The data are reality. The model is fantasy. Why substitute fantasy for reality?”
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">The Impending Collapse Of The Global Warming Scare
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 14, 2016 [H/t GWPF]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2016/12/13/some-predictions-for-the-future-in-the-climate-
game
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">The Social Cost of Carbon
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By John Constable: GWPF Energy Editor, GWPF, Dec 17, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.thegwpf.com/the-social-cost-of-carbon/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">The Non-Expert Problem and Climate Change Science
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Scott Adams, (Creator of Dilbert), His Blog, Dec 5, 2016 [H/t WUWT]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://blog.dilbert.com/post/154082416051/the-non-expert-problem-and-climate-change-science
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: The comments by Steve McIntyre are valuable. “In my experience, more
‘skeptics’ are born from poor conduct by climate scientists than from the eloquence of earlier
skeptics.” See </span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/06/quote-of-the-week-mcintyres-comment-to-
dilbert-creator-scott-adams-on-climate-experts/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">The latest climate ‘conspiracy theory’
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 15, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://judithcurry.com/2016/12/15/the-latest-climate-conspiracy-theory/#more-22599
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">You Ought to Have a Look: How-to Guides to Undoing the Climate Action Plan, Fixing the
National Flood Insurance Program, and Killing Mosquitoes<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. "Chip" Knappenberger, CATO, Dec 14, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.cato.org/blog/you-ought-have-look-how-guides-undoing-climate-action-plan-fixing-
national-flood-insurance
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">After US Election -- Opposed
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">It's up to scientists to call Trump out if he tramples on evidence, Obama official says
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">As Nasa's Earth science programmes are in the firing line, scientists protest against burying
evidence.<br />
By Martha Henriques, IBD Times, UK, Dec 15, 2016
</span><br />
</div>
</div>
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<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/its-scientists-call-trump-out-if-he-tramples-evidence-obama-official-
says-1596650<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“Sally Jewell, the outgoing secretary of the interior, said at a meeting of the American
Geophysical Union in San Francisco that science had been "foundational" to all parts of public
policy under the Obama Administration.”
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Where is the evidence for the endangerment finding? See links under EPA and
other Regulators on the March for the Interior Department’s latest efforts to stop mining without
evidence of harm.]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">These are the climate myths guiding Trump’s EPA team
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Chelsea Harvey, Washington Post, Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/12/13/these-are-the-
climate-myths-guiding-trumps-epa-team/?utm_source=rss_energy-
environment&utm_term=.3c39a6ab6bfe
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">A ‘Sense Of Panic’ Over Trump Consumes Climate Science Summit
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/13/a-sense-of-panic-over-trump-consumes-climate-science-
summit/<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Special session added to AGU agenda!]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Trump falsely claims that nobody knows if global warming is real
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Maria Gallucci, Mashable, Dec 11, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-falsely-claims-nobody-knows-011747403.html
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">#standupforscience rally at #AGU16 – another Manntastic production
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/13/standupforscience-rally-at-agu16-another-manntastic-
production/
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">After US Election -- Neutral
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">U.S. Energy Dept balks at Trump request for names on climate change
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By David Shepardson, CNBC, Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/13/reuters-america-us-energy-dept-balks-at-trump-request-for-
names-on-climate-change.html
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">On Climate Change, Who Will Censure the Censors?
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Megan McArdle, Bloomberg, Dec 15, 2016 [H/t Timothy Wise]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-15/on-climate-change-who-will-censure-the-
censors<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: To the writer, both government workers and “deniers” deserve the same
protection.]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">DOE-designate Perry’s Windy Past
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Dec 14, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.masterresource.org/perry-rick-texas-gov/doe-secretary-elects-windy-past-texas-post-
enron-wind-welfare-queen/
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Trump's Secretary of State Pick Gets Climate Change
</span><br />
</div>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Editorial, Bloomberg, Dec 14, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-14/trump-s-tillerson-pick-has-right-view-on-
climate
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Exxon shifted on climate change under Trump pick
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Dec 16, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/310647-exxon-shifted-on-climate-change-under-
trump-pick
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Five ways Trump could unwind Obama's environmental policies
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Dec 17, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/310822-five-ways-trump-could-unwind-obamas-
environmental-policies
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">How Climate Rules Might Fade Away
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Obama used an arcane number to craft his regulations. Trump could use it to undo them<br />
By Matthew Philips, Mark Drajem, and Jennifer A Dlouhy, Bloomberg, Dec 15, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/how-climate-rules-might-fade-away
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Ignoring the elephant in the room: the lack of data supporting the models used
to make the projections.]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Trump Picks Exxon Mobil’s Tillerson as Secretary of State
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Jennifer Jacobs, Nick Wadhams, and Ben Brody, Bloomberg, Dec 12, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-12-13/trump-said-to-pick-exxon-mobil-s-
tillerson-as-secretary-of-state
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">After US Election -- Favorable
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Fossil Fuel Energy Development: The Trump Administration’s Priority
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Dec 15, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/3246
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Scott Pruitt Is The Ideal Nominee to Lead the EPA
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Donald R. van der Vaart, Real Clear Energy, Dec 15, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2016/12/15/scott_pruitt_is_the_ideal_nominee_to_lead_th
e_epa_110146.html<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: By Secretary of the N.C. Department of Environmental Quality who was
considered on the short list for the position.]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Shifting sands of the climate debate
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 12, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://judithcurry.com/2016/12/12/shifting-sands-of-the-climate-debate/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“Insiders are out; and outsiders are becoming the insiders.”<br />
“I expect that climate and energy policy will be a winner in the Trump administration relative to
the Obama administration. Any solutions will come from innovations in the private sector and
state and local governments — not from federal decrees or U.N. proclamations.”
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">The Media Still Don’t Get Trump
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">The public doesn’t care about what obsesses pundits—and the president-elect knows it.
By Jason Riley, WSJ, Via The Hockey Schtick, Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
</div>
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<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2016/12/wsj-media-still-dont-get-trump.html
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Tillerson’s Foreign Prowess Said Aided by Exxon Intelligence Arm
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Joe Carroll, Blomberg, Dec 15, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/tillerson-s-foreign-prowess-said-aided-by-
exxon-intelligence-arm<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Video of former Shell Oil president Hofmeister on Tillerson The US has energy
plan.]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Five Decades of Wind-Induced Erosion within Chinese Drylands
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Yang, F. and Lu, C. 2016. Assessing changes in wind erosion climatic erosivity in China's dryland
region during 1961-2012. Dec 1, 2016<br />
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/dec/a9.php<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“Continuing, Yang and Lu write that ‘wind speed was the most sensitive and determinant factor of
climatic erosivity,’ and that ‘the regional mean wind speed was decreased by 24.4% during 1961-
2012,’ which decline ‘reduced the erosivity by 58.2%.’ And that's a climate change that most
people would likely consider to be </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">extremely </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">positive.”
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Late-Holocene Solar Variability and Its Impact on Climate in Korea
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Chae, I. and Park, J. 2016. Climate change and human activities over the past millennium at Mt.
Jeombong, central-eastern Korea. </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">Geosciences Journal </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">20</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">: 477-484. Dec 14, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/dec/a8.php<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“The two Korean researchers report that the Jeombong pollen records demonstrate the existence
of both the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly and the much colder Little Ice Age, which they
make a point of noting ‘are two well-known centennial climate shifts that were primarily caused
by solar variability.’"
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Potential Effects of Diel-Cycling Hypoxia and pH on Oyster Growth [Daily changes]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Keppel, A.G., Breitburg, D.L. and Burrell, R.B. 2016. Effects of Co-Varying Diel-Cycling
Hypoxia and pH on Growth in the Juvenile Eastern Oyster, </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">Crassostrea virginica</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">. </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">PLOS ONE </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">|
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0161088. Dec 12, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/dec/a6.php<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">"’juvenile oysters have [1] an ability to acclimate to, and [2] ultimately compensate for, the
negative effects of hypoxia on growth, as well as [3] an ability under some circumstances to
withstand exposure to co-varying cycling hypoxia as low as 0.5 mg/liter and [4] pH as low as 7.0
without reductions in growth.’"
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Models v. Observations
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Why do climate models disagree on the size of global temperature variability?
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Dr. Patrick T. Brown's Personal Website, Dec 5, 2016 [H/t Climate Etc.]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://patricktbrown.org/2016/12/05/why-do-climate-models-disagree-on-the-size-of-global-
temperature-variability/<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: The major issue not discussed is that global mean surface-air temperature
(GMST) is taken slightly above ground level, not in the atmosphere where CO2-caused warming
is theorized to occur, and where it is not occurring as theorized by climate modelers.]
</span><br />
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<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Measurement Issues -- Surface
</span><br />
</div>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Another New Paper Reveals No Discernible Human Influence On Global Ocean
Temperatures, Climate<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 12, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://notrickszone.com/2016/12/12/another-new-paper-reveals-no-discernible-human-or-co2-
influence-on-global-ocean-temperatures-climate/#sthash.P4IL3K69.dpbs
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Measurement Issues -- Atmosphere
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">New Location for UAH Version 6 Text Files
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Roy Spencer, UAH, Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/12/new-location-for-uah-version-6-text-files/
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Changing Weather
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Even with warm 2016/17 winter, US 20+ year trends are still down
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow, ICECAP, Dec 14, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-
blog/even_with_warm_2016_17_winter_us_20_year_trends_are_still_down/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">On the Decrease of Hot Days in the US
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Turbulent Eddie, Climate Etc. Dec 16, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://judithcurry.com/2016/12/16/on-the-decrease-of-hot-days-in-the-us/
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Changing Climate
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Ancient climate change at #AGU16 – Atacama Desert may have harbored lakes, wetlands
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 15, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/15/ancient-climate-change-at-agu16-atacama-desert-may-
have-harbored-lakes-wetlands/
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Changing Seas
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">A Summary of Meehl, et al., 2016 and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Andy May, WUWT, Dec 12, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/12/a-summary-of-meehl-et-al-2016-and-the-interdecadal-
pacific-oscillation/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Prof Peter Ridd, bleaching is not new, like coral spawning, we just discovered it the 1980s
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 10, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://joannenova.com.au/2016/12/prof-peter-ridd-bleaching-is-not-new-like-coral-spawning-we-
just-discovered-it-the-1980s/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">New studies take a second look at coral bleaching culprit
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Staff Writers, Cape Cod MA (SPX), Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.terradaily.com/reports/New_studies_take_a_second_look_at_coral_bleaching_culprit_
999.html<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Link to paper: Species-specific control of external superoxide levels by the coral holobiont during
a natural bleaching event
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Julia M. Diazk, et al. Nature Communications, Dec 7, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13801
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“...excessive production of superoxide within the coral tissue can cause the loss of symbiotic
algae living inside the coral.”
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">What caused the 2011 mass oyster die-off in California?
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">The consequences of atmospheric rivers may be dramatic for wild oyster populations.<br />
By Léa Surugue, IBT, Dec 14, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/what-caused-2011-mass-oyster-die-off-california-
1596324?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=rss&utm_content=/rss/yah
oous/news&yptr=yahoo
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Link to paper: Atmospheric rivers and the mass mortality of wild oysters: insight into an extreme
future?<br />
By Cheng, Chang, Deck, and Ferner, Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Dec 14, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/283/1844/20161462
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and severity of extreme events.”
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Roger Pielke Jr. showed that the predictions are not bearing out. The die-off
was from change in salinity not temperature.]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Arctic temperatures have hit levels that haven't been seen for thousands of years
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Ian Johnston, The Independent, Dec 14, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.businessinsider.com/arctic-temperatures-have-hit-levels-that-havent-been-seen-for-
thousands-of-years-2016-12<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">The report found the average annual air temperature over land areas was the “highest in the
observational record” at 3.5C above 1900. Sea ice levels also fell to the lowest since satellite
records began in 1979.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Perhaps NOAA will reveal the locations of the thermometers throughout the
Arctic in 1900.]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Hottest Arctic Hype
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 16, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/12/16/hottest-arctic-hype/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Warmer than usual temperatures, well below freezing, is no reason to go
sunbathing there.]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Inside the Arctic’s ‘unprecedented’ report card
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Joshua Rhett Miller, New York Post, Dec 13, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://nypost.com/2016/12/13/the-arctic-got-its-annual-report-card-and-its-really-bad/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Scientists: Greenland Is Now Much Colder With More Advanced Ice Sheet Margins Than
90% Of The Last 7,500 Years<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 15, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://notrickszone.com/2016/12/15/scientists-greenland-is-now-much-colder-with-more-
advanced-ice-sheet-margins-than-90-of-the-last-7500-years/#sthash.PGxUm5x7.dpbs
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Climate Change causes more snow and ice on Greenland
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 16, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://joannenova.com.au/2016/12/climate-change-causes-more-snow-and-ice-on-
greenland/#more-52255
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Most of Greenland Ice Melted to Bedrock in Recent Geologic Past, Study Says
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Staff Writers, Lamont-Doherry Earth Observatory, Dec 7, 2016
</span><br />
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<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/news-events/most-greenland-ice-melted-bedrock-recent-geologic-
past-study-says<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“Finding Suggests the Ice Sheet Is More Vulnerable than Thought”<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Depends on who did the thinking!]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Antarctic Sea Ice Retreats Due To Wind Patterns
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 14, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/12/14/antarctic-sea-ice-retreats-due-to-
wind-patterns/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Mysterious "crater" in Antarctica has ominous cause
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Stephanie Pappas, CBS News, Dec 14, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.cbsnews.com/news/mysterious-crater-in-antarctica-has-ominous-cause/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: What is meant by stating a moulin demonstrates East Antarctic ice is
“vulnerable”?]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Lowering Standards
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Gavin Caught Cheating Again
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/12/13/gavin-caught-cheating-again/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Five Years of GISS Cheating (Dec 17, 2016)
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/12/17/five-years-of-giss-cheating/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“Since October, he has increased global land temperatures for recent years by up to 0.03C, whilst
lowering many years prior to 1970.”
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Use and abuse of climate simulations
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Dec 12, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2016/12/12/use-and-abuse-of-climate-simulations.html
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Announcing a talk by Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA-GISS, who “was the
inaugural winner of the American Geophysical Union's Climate Communication Prize in 2011”
after he invented the concept that CO2 was “the control knob of the earth’s temperatures.” – sub-
prime science.]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">NYT Blames Winter Chill on Global Warming
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 16, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/16/nyt-blames-winter-chill-on-global-warming/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“How much more of this global warming driven extreme cold can we take?”
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">During last warming period, Antarctica heated up 2 to 3 times more than planet average
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Staff Writer, Scienmag, Dec 5, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://scienmag.com/during-last-warming-period-antarctica-heated-up-2-to-3-times-more-than-
planet-average/<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“The calculations are in line with estimates from most climate models, proving that these models
do a good job of estimating past climatic conditions and, very likely, future conditions in an era of
climate change and global warming.”
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: False! The models do not predict atmospheric temperatures well.]
</span><br />
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<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Questioning European Green
</span><br />
</div>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">£300 Billion: The Cost of the Climate Change Act (UK)
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Peter Lilley, MP, GWPF, Dec 11, 2016 [Press Release]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.thegwpf.com/report-reveals-300-billion-cost-of-britains-climate-change-act/
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Link to report: </span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2016/12/CCACost-Dec16.pdf
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Matt Ridley: Climate Change Act Has Cost Us The Earth
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Matt Ridley, The Times, Via GWPF, Dec 12, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.thegwpf.com/matt-ridley-climate-change-act-has-cost-us-the-earth/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">How NOT to Regulate Pesticides: EU, Canada Lessons for Trump (Part II)
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Dec 16, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.masterresource.org/pesticide-regulation/not-regulate-pesticides-ii/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“Seek solutions that balance the interests of agricultural producers, consumers, and the
environment, since one side of an argument rarely has a monopoly on merit.”
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Funding Issues
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Energy innovation is focus of Gates-led $1 billion fund
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Staff Writers, Miami (AFP), Dec 12, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Energy_innovation_is_focus_of_Gates-
led_1_billion_fund_999.html<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: That should have been the focus of tens of billions of government expenditures
in wind and solar subsidies.]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Foreign Aid Officials Lose Track Of £274m Climate Fund Handout
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Dominic Kennedy, The Times, Via GWPF, Dec 12, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.thegwpf.com/foreign-aid-officials-lose-track-of-274m-climate-fund-handout/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Would Bill Gates let UK officials get away with that?]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">EPA and other Regulators on the March
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">EPA Releases Final Report on Impacts from Hydraulic Fracturing Activities on Drinking
Water<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">EPA’s report concludes that hydraulic fracturing activities can impact drinking water resources
under some circumstances and identifies factors that influence these impacts
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Press Release, EPA, Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-releases-final-report-impacts-hydraulic-fracturing-
activities-drinking-water<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Link to report: Hydraulic Fracturing for Oil and Gas: Impacts from the Hydraulic Fracturing
Water Cycle on Drinking Water Resources in the United States (Final Report)
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Staff Writers, EPA, Dec 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/hfstudy/recordisplay.cfm?deid=332990
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">[666 Pages – executive summary of 50 pp]<br />
Wastewater – excess water from wells or injection fluids
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">EPA’s final fracking report re-writes takeaways
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">After outside review, conclusions are a little more cautious.<br />
By Scott Johnson, Ars Technica, Dec 14, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/12/epas-final-fracking-report-re-writes-takeaways/
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Useful map of areas of hydraulic fracturing.]
</span><br />
</div>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Did EPA Really ‘Reverse’ Its Stance On Fracking? No
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Dec 14, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/14/did-epa-really-reverse-its-stance-on-fracking-no/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“So that’s what EPA did. Officials changed the language in their report to highlight that fracking
can impact drinking water — something they found in their draft report — but “data gaps”
prevent any sort of quantitative analysis.”
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">No, The EPA Has Not Actually Changed Its Conclusion On Risks Of Fracking To Drinking
Water<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Robert Rapier, Forbes, Dec 15, 2016 [H/t Cooler Heads]
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2016/12/15/yes-direct-injection-of-fracking-fluid-into-
groundwater-causes-contamination/#11586a0c7470
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Feds block northern Minnesota mining project
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Devin Henry, The Hill, Dec 15, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/310554-feds-block-northern-minnesota-mining-
project
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Energy Issues – Non-US
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">OPEC Deal Can Work, But ‘We Tend to Cheat,’ Al-Naimi Says [former Saudi Arabia Oil
Minister]<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Catherine Traywick, Bloomberg, Dec 2, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-02/opec-deal-can-work-but-we-tend-to-cheat-
al-naimi-says
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">The Saudis Vs Shale
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Editors, Real Clear Energy, Dec 15, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2016/12/15/saudis_vs_shale_110145.html
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Graphs of Saudi budget surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP & Economic growth
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">OPEC's Oil Production Cuts Pressure U.S. Shale
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Jude Clemente, Forbes, Dec 11, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2016/12/11/opecs-oil-production-cuts-pressure-u-s-
shale/#5f3dbf5c71d7
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Britain facing energy crisis that could see families pay extra to keep the lights on while
neighbours 'sit in the dark<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Peter Dominiczak, Telegraph, UK, Dec 12, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/11/britain-facing-energy-crisis-could-could-see-
families-pay-extra/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: From a senior executive of UK’s Ofgem, the Office of Electricity Regulation
and Gas Supply. Has reliability becomes a luxury?]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Hot air: Bombshell report shows green levies backed by government will cost the economy
£319bn by 2030<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By David Rose, Sunday Mail, UK, Dec 11, 2016 [H/t GWPF]
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4021200/Hot-air-Bombshell-report-shows-green-levies-
backed-government-cost-economy-319bn-2030.html
</span><br />
</div>
</div>
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<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Energy Issues – Australia
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">AEMO’s third report highlights wind power link to South Australia blackout
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Charis Chang, News.com, AU, Dec 12, 2016 [H/t GWPF]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/aemos-third-report-highlights-wind-power-
link-to-south-australia-blackout/news-story/2bbf105bc613f70966659465043633b0<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Link to report: AEMO publishes preliminary recommendations following the South Australian
state-wide power outage
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Staff Writers, AEMO, Australian Energy Market Operator, Dec 12, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.aemo.com.au/Media-Centre/AEMO-publishes-preliminary-recommendations-
following-the-South-Australian-state-wide-power-outage
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">South Australia blackout: renewables don’t cope with rapid change report finds
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 16, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/12/16/south-australia-blackout-renewables-
dont-cope-with-rapid-change-report-finds/<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“renewable power sources cannot cope with rapid or large changes in frequency, leading
ultimately to a “’black system’”.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“’Finding new ways to provide inertia and respond to frequency changes is where work is
required,’ AEMC chairman John Pierce said.”
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Energy Issues -- US
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Dakota Access pipeline: Mob rule triumphed over law and common sense
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Misinformed environmental activists and paid agitators forced a weak-kneed Army Corps to
postpone the project.<br />
By Jack Dalrymple, Governor of North Dakota, Star Tribune, Dec 15, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.startribune.com/dakota-access-pipeline-mob-rule-triumphed-over-law-and-common-
sense/406939436/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Dakota and the Pipeline Abyss
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 16, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2016/12/16/dakota-and-the-pipeline-abyss/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“The </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">Climate Disobedience Action Fund </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">temporarily shut down five other pipelines in support of
the group protesting the Dakota Access pipeline.”
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Washington’s Control of Energy
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Dakota Pipeline Developers Lose $20 Million Per Day On Rejected Project
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Chris White, Daily Caller, Dec 11, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/11/dakota-pipeline-developers-lose-20-million-per-day-on-
rejected-project/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Five People Could Block Trump’s Pipeline Promises
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Catherine Traywick, Bloomberg, Dec 12, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-13/trump-s-pipeline-promises-at-the-mercy-
of-hard-to-change-agency
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Canada's oil exports would be dead without US shale
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Omar Mawji, OilPrice.com, Dec 14, 2016
</span><br />
</div>
</div>
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<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.businessinsider.com/canadas-oil-exports-are-dead-without-us-shale-production-2016-
12?r=UK&IR=T<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Blending light oil from shale or oil condensates allows heavy crude, “syrup,”
from Canada and “peanut butter,” from oil sands to flow.]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">SEDD Completes Challenging Gas Pipeline Crossing Under Hudson River
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Staff Writers, Pipeline & Gas Journal, July 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://pgjonline.com/2016/07/01/sedd-completes-challenging-gas-pipeline-crossing-under-
hudson-river/
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Oil Spills, Gas Leaks, Excess Water, Earth Tremors & Consequences
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">New Ways to Clean Up Oil Fields Without Dumping Wastewater
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Experimenting with techniques from desalination to inductive evaporation.<br />
By David Wethe, Bloomberg, Dec 9, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/new-ways-to-clean-up-oil-fields-without-
dumping-wastewater
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Nuclear Energy and Fears
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Small reactors for heat and power in Russia
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Staff Writers, WNN, Dec 12, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-Small-reactors-for-heat-and-power-in-Russia-
1212161.html
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Palisades to close in 2018 [Michigan]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Staff Writers, WNN, Dec 9, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/C-Palisades-to-close-in-2018-0912168.html
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">It’s Easy Being Green
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Dec 14, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/12/its-easy-being-green.php
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Final wind-turbine rule permits thousands of eagle deaths<br />
By Matthew Daly, AP, Dec 14, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://bigstory.ap.org/article/b8dd6050c702467e8be4b1272a3adc87/final-wind-energy-rule-
permits-thousands-eagle-deaths
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Solar power on the island of Ta’u, a preliminary appraisal
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Dec 15, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://euanmearns.com/solar-power-on-the-island-of-tau-a-preliminary-appraisal/#more-15914
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“Ta’u is the latest entrant in the growing field of “100% renewables” projects, and this brief
appraisal suggests that it probably has a better chance of succeeding than some of the other
projects that have been marketed under this mantra. The key, however, is whether the smart grid
can be made to work with 100% solar generation and zero diesel backup.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">“Now $14.6 million may be too high and $8 million may be really what the project cost, although
it still seems a little on the low side. But even if $8 million is the right number it still works out to
$10,000 (or almost one year’s GDP) for each of the island’s 790 residents..”
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">The Glenmuckloch Pumped Storage Hydro Scheme
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, Dec 12, 2016
</span><br />
</div>
</div>
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<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://euanmearns.com/the-glenmuckloch-pumped-storage-hydro-scheme/#more-16072
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: An excellent and much needed analysis. Pumped storage hydro is a proven
technology for “peak shaving” – meeting daily peak demand. But if renewables, such as wind,
are doing the pumping, the real question is: does the reservoir have sufficient capacity to provide
power over long periods when winds falter? The analysis uses 90% efficiency for pumped
storage, whereas SEPP is more comfortable with 75% efficiency.]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Pushing the Green Car Agenda
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2016/12/13/pushing-the-green-car-agenda/
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Requiring more expensive cars for the working man – a far cry from Henry
Ford’s goal!]
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">California Dreaming
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Jerry Brown: California 'ready to fight' Trump on climate change
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Jennifer Calfas, The Hill, Dec 15, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/310512-california-gov-were-ready-to-fight-
trump-on-climate-change<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">"’If Trump turns off the satellites, California will launch its own damn satellite,’ Brown said.”
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Other Scientific News
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Vacuum QED effects detected around Neutron Stars?
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Nir Shaviv, Science Bits, Dec 10, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://sciencebits.com/vacuum_birefringence
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(75.300000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700;">Other News that May Be of Interest
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Life Expectancy for Americans Drops for First Time Since 1993
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Erik Lief, ACHS, Dec 12, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://acsh.org/news/2016/12/12/life-expectancy-americans-drops-first-time-1993-10574
</span><br />
<pre><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 50.200000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;"> ###################################################
</span></pre>
<span style="color: rgb(100.000000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Can jet engines clean up Delhi's foul air?
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Soutik Biswas, BBC News, Dec 13, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-38285567
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: To blow a hole through a thermal inversion?]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Past Potty Predictions that have Passed Away!
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Geoff Brown, Australian Climate Sceptics, Dec 14, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2016/12/past-potty-predictions-that-have-
passed.html
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">Monsoons decrease & Monsoons increase
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Dec 14, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/7517
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/7515
</span><br />
</div>
</div>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">We have presented evidence from observations that the equatorial Indian Ocean has warmed by
about 0.6 to 0.8K during 1950 to 2002, accompanied by a dramatic weakening of the summertime
SST gradient in the NIO.<br />
In the model, the weakening of the meridional NIO_SST gradient leads to a large decrease in
Indian rainfall during summer months, ranging from 2 to 3 mm per day. Reduction in the
NIO_SST gradient basically weakens the model monsoonal circulation and shifts model rainfall
from India to sub-Saharan Africa.
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Chul Eddy Chung and V. Ramanahan, American Meteorological Society, Journal of Climate,
Vol19 Issue 10 (May 2006)
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">Despite weakening of the dynamical monsoon circulation, atmospheric buildup due to increased
greenhouse gases and consequent temperature increase results in a larger moisture flux and more
precipitation for the Indian monsoon. (Douville et al 2000, IPCC 2001, Ashrit et al 2003, Meehl
and Arblaster 2003, May 2004, Ashrit et al 2005) </span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Working Group 1:
The Physical Science Basis 10.3.5.2 Monsoons
</span><br />
<pre><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 50.200000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;"> ###################################################
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<span style="color: rgb(100.000000%, 0.000000%, 0.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">ARTICLES:
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 12.500000%, 37.600000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">1. In Oil Face-Off, Saudis, Shale Both Claim Victory
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Both sides look to take advantage of higher prices<br />
By Benoit Faucon, Alison Sider and Georgi Kantchev, WSJ, Dec 15, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-oil-face-off-saudis-shale-both-claim-victory-1481803202<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: The battle was costly, but the consumer, standing on the sidelines, was the clear
winner, though not recognized by the authors.]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">SUMMARY: The authors write:
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“A two-year battle for global oil supremacy that pit Saudi Arabia, head of the powerful oil cartel,
against upstart U.S. shale producers left them both badly wounded but with each side claiming
victory.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries deal last month to cut oil production
has sparked a powerful rally after crude prices had fallen in half over the past two years. That
slide followed OPEC’s decision in late 2014 to maintain production levels, despite a global glut.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“For U.S. shale companies, it was two years of shrinking profits and mass layoffs as dozens of
producers scaled back output or sought bankruptcy protection. But the survivors became much
more efficient and are now eager to grab market share at their foreign competitors’ expense.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“’Definitely, the U.S. is going to win the next two years because OPEC is cutting and U.S. shale
is taking off,’ said Scott Sheffield, chief executive of </span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">Pioneer Natural Resources </span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">Co., a U.S.
producer that is already ramping up drilling in the Permian Basin.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“In Saudi Arabia, two years of lower oil prices have greatly slowed economic growth, widened a
budget gap and led the government to slash fuel and other popular subsidies in moves that risked
stirring public discontent.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“Yet the collapse in crude prices didn’t stop OPEC from gaining global market share as shale
retreated. It also helped jump-start the kingdom’s plans to move away from a decades long
</span><br />
</div>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">dependency on oil. Saudi Arabia raised a record $17.5 billion with its first global bond deal in
October.”
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">The budgetary losses for Saudi Arabia are significant – from a surplus of over 10% of GDP in
2011 to a deficit of over 10% in 2016 and an economic growth of 10% in 2011 to less than 2% in
2016 (for graphs see link under Energy Issues – Non-US).<br />
*******************<br />
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 12.500000%, 37.600000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">2. Companies Should Report Possible Climate Costs, Say Global Executives<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">The information should routinely appear in financial statements, according to recommendations to
be presented to G-20 leaders<br />
By Jason Douglas, WSJ, Dec 14, 2016
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-should-report-possible-climate-costs-say-global-
executives-1481716801<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">[SEPP Comment: Michael Bloomberg and Mark Carney of the Bank of England are showing
their climate alarmism. Speculating on top of speculation.]
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">SUMMARY: The author writes:
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“Companies should publish an assessment of the losses they could suffer through climate change
as part of their routine financial statements, according to a panel of financial and business
executives chaired by Michael Bloomberg.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, headed by the former New York City
Mayor, in a report Wednesday said that greenhouse gas emissions pose a serious risk to the global
economy and investors need better information to assess which firms are most vulnerable to
shifting weather patterns and related threats.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“’What gets measured better gets managed better,’ Mr. Bloomberg said in a letter to Mark
Carney, governor of the Bank of England and chairman of the Financial Stability Board, a group
of global regulators, which commissioned the 73-page report.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">The call for greater transparency over climate-related risks is part of a wider push to prod
companies to disclose more climate-related information, a contentious effort that implies such
issues are material to a company’s performance.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">It also comes amid heightened uncertainty over the future of efforts to cut carbon emissions
following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election in November.
Mr. Trump has pledged to dismantle the Obama administration’s climate agenda and chose a
global-warming skeptic to lead the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">The panel’s recommendations, which include broad suggestions applicable to all companies’
financial statements and specific proposals aimed at banks, insurers and the financial sector, will
be presented to leaders of the Group of 20 leading economies in July.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Additional comment: The models cannot predict near-term climate change well. How can
management assess future losses from climate change when, after 35 years of theory and billions
of dollars in spending, climate scientists cannot?<br />
*******************<br />
</span><span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 12.500000%, 37.600000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-weight: 700;">3. High-Energy Rick Perry<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Revive Yucca Mt.’s nuclear waste site, then close Energy down.
</span><br />
</div>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Editorial, WSJ, Dec 14, 2016
</span><br />
<span style="color: rgb(0.000000%, 0.000000%, 100.000000%); font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">http://www.wsj.com/articles/high-energy-rick-perry-1481762970
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">SUMMARY: The editorial states:
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“Donald Trump is not without a sense of irony, as witness his choice of Rick Perry to run the
Energy Department, which the former Texas Governor couldn’t even recall in a 2011 presidential
debate and which he wanted to eliminate. Now is his chance.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“During three terms as Governor, Mr. Perry promoted the development of Texas’s vast oil and gas
resources. He streamlined permitting while doling out subsidies for green energy. Under his
stewardship, the state invested more than $50 million in algae, biomass, solar cells and other
political indulgences.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“Jimmy Carter established DOE in 1977 to promote energy development and protect the nation’s
nuclear resources. Nuclear security and modernization constitute nearly two-thirds of the
department’s $30 billion budget, and most of this could be moved to the Defense Department. The
remainder is primarily dedicated to scientific research and development, however broadly
construed.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“The 2009 stimulus blowout gave the Obama Administration heaps of cash to throw at green
companies, some of which like solar-panel manufacturer Solyndra and electric-car maker Fisker
went kaput. The stimulus funding authorizations for most energy grants and loan guarantees have
expired, and one of Mr. Perry’s responsibilities will be to wind down DOE’s investment portfolio.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“Another should be to shutter the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. DOE sets
efficiency standards for 60 some appliances including televisions, furnaces, toilets and even
showerheads. The Obama Administration cranked up the standards in part to disguise the costs of
its renewable binge on consumer utility bills. DOE even attempted to ban the incandescent light
bulb.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“But many high-efficiency appliances break down before their estimated lifespans, and the
upfront costs often exceed long-term savings. DOE’s own data show that 64% of senior-only
households and 59% of low-income consumers will spend more on a new high-efficiency
dishwasher than they will recoup in energy savings. Mr. Perry may not be able to roll back rule-
makings for each individual appliance, but he could impose a moratorium on new standards.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPS'; font-size: 12.000000pt; font-style: italic;">“If Mr. Perry won’t close Energy down, then he ought to work with Congress to revive the Yucca
Mountain nuclear repository in Nevada that President Obama and Harry Reid tried to kill. DOE
has paid more than $4 billion to settle lawsuits for breach-of-contract claims by nuclear power
plants for not storing spent fuel. Cleaning up the waste will become even more urgent as more
nuclear plants retire due to competition from natural gas.”
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'TimesNewRomanPSMT'; font-size: 12.000000pt;">Additional comment: Adding to appliances breaking before calculated lifespans, homeowners are
discovering other costs. For example, a high-efficiency water heater may not fit into the old space
because insulation requirements made it too large. Doubtful that increased plumbing costs are
included in government calculated “savings.”
</span><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-76614187175336092652016-12-14T08:38:00.002-08:002016-12-14T08:38:48.575-08:00WSJ: "The Media Still Don’t Get Trump"<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "Chronicle SSm", serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">
<br /></div>
<h1 class="wsj-article-headline" itemprop="headline" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "Chronicle Display", serif; font-size: 40px; line-height: 1.2em; margin: 0px 0px 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
The Media Still Don’t Get Trump</h1>
<h2 class="sub-head" itemprop="description" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: "Whitney SSm", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: -0.013em; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
The public doesn’t care about what obsesses pundits—and the president-elect knows it.</h2>
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "Chronicle SSm", serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">
<br /></div>
<div class="byline" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "Whitney SSm", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 2.2rem; margin: 0px 150px 2px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #666666; display: inline-block; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By</span> <div class="author hasMenu" data-scrim="{"type":"author","header":"Jason L. Riley","subhead":"The Wall Street Journal","list":[]}" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #666666; display: inline-block; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span itemprop="name" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;">JASON L. RILEY</span></div>
</div>
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "Chronicle SSm", serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">
<time class="timestamp" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #666666; display: block; font-family: "Whitney SSm", sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 2.2rem; margin: 0px 0px 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Updated Dec. 13, 2016 7:25 p.m. ET THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</time></div>
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "Chronicle SSm", serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">
Republican pols and their supporters are accustomed to biased media coverage from a Washington press corps dominated by liberals, but there’s reason to believe that Donald Trump could have it worse than his GOP predecessors.</div>
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "Chronicle SSm", serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">
We are told that Mr. Trump’s cabinet picks pose threats to the country ranging from merely grave to existential. Businessman Andy Puzder is unacceptable as labor secretary because he believes minimum-wage hikes hurt job growth. Never mind that <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/MCD" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">McDonald’s</a>is currently replacing human cashiers with automated kiosks to counteract the unions’ nationwide push for a $15 per hour minimum.</div>
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "Chronicle SSm", serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">
<b>Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, the president-elect’s choice to head the Environmental Protection Agency, is branded a climate-change “denier” for writing that scientists “continue to disagree about the degree and extent of global warming and its connection to the actions of mankind.” Liberals often resort to name-calling to shut down serious policy debates. Only a racist would criticize affirmative action, and only a homophobe would oppose same-sex marriage, right? But now we’ve reached a point where questioning the impact of something is no different from denying that it exists.</b></div>
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Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, the nominee for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, is knocked for having no expertise in housing policy or running a government agency, which is apparently more difficult than brain surgery. While Elaine Chao, a George W. Bush administration veteran who’s been tapped to run the Transportation Department, is accused of being an “insider”—i.e., having too much experience in government. Rex Tillerson, the chief executive of Exxon Mobil, is unfit for secretary of state because his company does business with Russia. The same people who questioned the president-elect’s knowledge of foreign affairs during the campaign now tell us that he’s surrounding himself with too much military brass. Well, make up your mind.</div>
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Clearly, Mr. Trump can’t win, and the best way forward for him may be to not even try. The media establishment’s problems with the incoming president go deeper than ideology. The press still isn’t over the fact that a nonpolitician won the White House. The Trump victory knocked veteran journalists off their stride. Most of the political know-it-alls who type and talk for a living misread the candidates and the public mood, and we’re still coming to grips with that. Hillary Clinton promised to put the coal industry out of business and lost. Why should it shock or outrage anyone that Mr. Trump is appointing cabinet members who support the use of fossil fuels?</div>
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The current hubbub over Mr. Trump’s financial conflicts of interest resembles the debate over his tax returns during the campaign. The media was obsessed with getting Mr. Trump to make his returns public, but voters didn’t care. Reporters are right to demand transparency when it comes to Mr. Trump’s business dealings, and if he wants to maintain the trust of voters and not waste time warding off congressional investigations for the next four years, he’ll be open about conflicts of interest and work to avoid them.</div>
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But calls for Mr. Trump to sell off his hotel and real estate businesses to avoid conflicts set a bad precedent and discourage capable people who are not professional politicians from seeking elected office. Mr. Trump won in part due to the country’s distrust and disappointment in traditional politicians, yet the media continue to hammer him for not behaving like one.</div>
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There’s no shortage of legitimate criticism of the president-elect. The tariff threats are as problematic as interference with Carrier’s business model or the new administration’s talk of another Obama-style Keynesian stimulus package. Evidence that Russia determined the outcome of the election exists only in the imagination of Democrats, but foreign cyberattacks are a real and growing threat, and Mr. Trump ought to take them more seriously than he has in recent interviews. His foolish comments about women, minorities and immigrants didn’t prevent him from getting elected, but that doesn’t make them any less inappropriate.</div>
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At some point, Beltway journalists may become interested in closing the gap between their own concerns and priorities and those of their audience, but the current focus on recounts and fake news suggests that they aren’t there yet. Mr. Trump makes it clearer every day, if not with every tweet, that he has zero interest in becoming the kind of workaday politician whom journalists would prefer to cover. So long as this standoff continues, denizens of the Fourth Estate will be catering mostly to each other and the political elites.</div>
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“Most of Washington punditry,” the late Christopher Hitchens once said, is “private letters, written to other pundits, appearing in public space.” That’s never been as true as it has since Donald Trump was elected. Voters deserve better.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-82464535235323855482016-12-13T16:23:00.001-08:002016-12-13T16:23:51.314-08:00The Week That Was: 2016-12-10
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<span class="s1">The Week That Was: 2016-12-10 (December 10, 2016) </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Brought to You by SEPP <a href="http://www.sepp.org/"><span class="s3">www.sepp.org</span></a> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>PLEASE NOTE:</b> The complete TWTW can be downloaded in an easily printable form at this web site: <a href="http://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm"><span class="s4">http://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm...</span></a></span></div>
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<span class="s1">Please forward this Newsletter to those interested in Science and Environmental Policy. Thank you. <a href="https://go.madmimi.com/forward/196750-136123962-591050894-beb7f889960650faea8814b9300baf06be7fd7fd?fe=1&pact=196750-136123962-591050894-beb7f889960650faea8814b9300baf06be7fd7fd&amx=591050894"><span class="s4">Forward.</span></a></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>Quote of the Week.</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><i>“In God we trust, all others bring data.”</i> – Motto of the Apollo team.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>Number of the Week: 99.98%</b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>THIS WEEK:</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><b><i>By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)</i></b></span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1"><b>Deliberate Ignorance – Where’s The Data?</b> As discussed in the past few TWTWs, the 1979 Charney Report to the National Research Council of the US National Academy of Sciences articulated that there were two components to possible global warming from carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases. The first component is a warming directly from CO2. The warming takes place in the atmosphere. Based on laboratory experiments, this warming would be modest, highly logarithmic, and likely beneficial. The second component was proposed by those creating global climate models. This warming is from an increase in atmospheric water vapor, and far more powerful than warming from CO2. At the time, there was no data to confirm or deny this warming from an increase in water vapor.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">Based primarily on calculations with global climate models, the Charney report estimated that <i>“the most probable global warming for a doubling of CO2 to be near 3ºC with a probable error of ±1.5ºC.”</i> Since the Charney Report, we have had five reports from the UN Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, and several reports for the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), under various names. Generally, they repeat the findings in the Charney report. Except for the discredited Santer “hotspot” which depended on eliminating data that was inconsistent with the assertion, these reports produce no atmospheric data to confirm or deny the second component of the warming, the more powerful warming from water vapor.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">Now, we have comprehensive data of atmospheric temperatures dating from December 1978, independently confirmed by data from weather balloons. In his February 2, 2016, testimony, John Christy, a co-discoverer of the method of calculating atmospheric temperatures from information collected by satellites, produced excellent summaries of the data from satellites, particularly between the surface to 50,000 feet where both components of the greenhouse gas warming should take place, and compared them with global climate models. In general, the models overestimated atmospheric warming by 2.5 times and by 3 times over the tropics, where the water vapor warming should be more pronounced.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">As discussed in last week’s TWTW, in making its finding that greenhouse gas emissions endanger human health and welfare (Endangerment Finding), the EPA produced no data, instead relied on three lines of evidence: 1) understanding of the physics of greenhouse gases; 2) a questionable study that late 20th century warming was unusual; and 3) global climate models. The evidence is woefully incomplete.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">Further, any warming of the surface is not the same as a warming of the atmosphere, and can be highly influenced by other human activities such as change in land use, change in instrument locations, and change in instrument types. An example of the last type, is a switch in instruments used to measure surface ocean temperatures. Earlier methods were instruments located on ship water intakes, well below the surface of the water, the current method is to use instrument buoys at the surface. The latter is subject to direct warming from sunlight, unrelated to and CO2 – caused warming. For example, see NIPCC 2008, p. 19 & 20.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">To build a reliable database, any such changes must be carefully calibrated. For surface temperature measurements, all too frequently changes in instruments have not been carefully calibrated. For example, in the US, the use of mathematical adjustments for land surface records is highly questionable, because the results are inconsistent with the historic records of high temperatures.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">For satellite measurements, the changes in instrumentation are carefully calibrated, errors are quickly corrected, and deviations are noted. Now, three independent, competitive groups analyze the same data when received.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">It is time to petition the EPA for a reconsideration of the Endangerment Finding, stating that there are no data supporting the second component of the global warming theory and that its reliance on global climate models is not scientifically based, because the greatly overestimate atmospheric warming. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC, Challenging the Orthodoxy, and Defending the Orthodoxy.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>If Not CO2, then What?</b> One of the most scientifically vacuous arguments advanced by the IPCC and its advocates is: “If CO2 has not caused late 20th century warming, then what?” The paper by Wallace, Christy, and D’Aleo provides the “what” – <b>changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Others, including Ian Plimer of Australia and de Freitas et al. of New Zealand, have suggested this may be the case.</b> The Wallace et al. paper shows strong statistical relationships between changes in ENSO events, coupled with the PDO, and changes in temperatures. <b>The statistical relationships are far stronger than the one between CO2 and temperatures.</b> The Wallace, et al. paper applies to both atmospheric and surface measurements.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">This research is being confirmed by other independent research by other groups.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">The IPCC has considered the ENSO as weather events, too short for consideration for climate change. But, the changes in the frequency of ENSOs and changes in the PDO are not too short for climate events influencing global temperatures.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">Of course, correlation is not causation. This adage came with the development of statistical techniques in the early 20th century, when efforts to use correlation to assert causation produced foolish results. Conversely, without correlation causation is difficult to establish, because many other influences may dominate. That appears to be the case in the CO2 – temperature relationship, particularly for surface data. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC and Challenging the Orthodoxy.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>Acid – Alkaline Balance:</b> A great misnomer in studies of the influence of increased atmospheric CO2 is ocean acidification. The term is alarming and wrong. The corrosiveness of a water-based solution is measured by its pH. A pH below 7 is acidic, a pH above 7 is alkaline, which can be very corrosive. The closer the pH is to 7, the less corrosive the solution. SEPP has reviewed no empirical studies which assert that with increasing atmospheric CO2, the pH of the oceans will drop below 7 – become acidic.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">Yet, we have numerous laboratory studies in which the researchers drop acid, such as hydrochloric acid, into tanks with marine life and consider the results as credible.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">Such actions would horrify some tropically fish fanciers who bubble CO2 through their aquariums to lower the pH below 7, to promote coloration in Amazonian fish such as discus. They would not consider pouring hydrochloric acid in the aquarium, which would kill the life.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">That said, increasingly, there are studies showing seasonal, and daily variations in pH, without harm to marine life, such as corals. Some coral reefs have pH gradients with depth or exposure to natural CO2 seeps.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">As stated in the NIPCC Report on Biological Impacts: <i>“Caution should be applied when interpreting results from laboratory-based studies … Rising atmospheric CO2 do not pose a significant threat to aquatic life … The natural variability of oceanic pH is often much greater than the change in pH levels forecast by IPCC…”</i></span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">The difference between the laboratory results and the field results illustrates the need to verify the results of the laboratory in the field. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC and Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science, both this week and in last week’s TWTW.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>Model Issues</b> – Importance of Aerosols in Climate Models: One of the deficiencies in the IPCC approach to understanding climate, is basing the findings on runs of a suite of models. Often these model runs are singular. Yet, as explained by Fred Singer in a paper, model runs produce different results each time. Singer estimates that at least 10 different runs are needed for each model to obtain a reasonable approximation for the results of that model. This is not done.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">A second major issue creating significant uncertainty in the results of models is that often the models are run producing estimates for both warming from CO2 and cooling from aerosols, small particles in the atmosphere. This procedure makes as much logical sense as expecting that solving one simple linear equation with two unknowns will produce a unique solution. The range of solutions is infinite. If imaginary numbers are added, then the range of solutions is imaginary! Is there a difference?</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">The important CLOUD experiment at CERN began to estimate a range of values for aerosols, an important beginning to arrive at empirical bounds for aerosols and for climate models. Until bounds are established, the certainty expressed by the IPCC, the EPA, and the Climate Establishment in these simply is not justified. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC and Model Issues.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>After the Election:</b> An outpouring of outrage over the election of Donald Trump continues. One thing is clear: he is upsetting the Democratic establishment, the Republican establishment, and, above all, the Climate Establishment. His designation of Scott Pruitt for administrator of the EPA will not win accolades among green groups, but Trump did not receive their support in the election. Pruitt is the Attorney General for the State of Oklahoma, and a litigant against the Obama administration’s so-called Clean Power Plan. Expect events to become quite heated in Washington for the remainder of the winter, even though actual Congressional sessions will be mostly symbolic rather than meaningful. It is impossible to predict what the outgoing administration will do. For a sampling of articles see links under After the Election --.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>Post-Election Predictions?</b> Perhaps as a result of the election, in <i>Polar Bear Science,</i> Susan Crockford highlights several highly questionable assertions being made by “experts” on Arctic animals about the future. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>Post-normal Science and Thinking:</b> Writing in Power Line, Steven Hayward discusses what he calls “post truth” media. Hayward considers this concept as stemming from a remark by the 19th century philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche: “there are no facts, only interpretation.” The concept was picked up by nihilist philosophers and continues today. Of course, post-normal view is rejected by empirical scientists who believe that facts stem from observations. Perhaps the view is the basis for some people, such as those who identify themselves as from the Union of Concerned Scientists, to label hypothesis testing as “cherry picking.”</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>Quote of the Week:</b> The quote of the week: <i>In God we trust, all others bring data.</i>, was prominently displayed at NASA Space Flight Center near Houston, which controlled the Apollo missions. The activities of this center should not be confused with NASA-GISS, which focuses on surface temperatures. Gavin Schmidt, GISS director, is a listed expert reviewer of the Endangerment Finding and has produced slogans such as carbon dioxide is the “control knob” of the earth’s temperatures. The web site gives his office as on <a href="x-apple-data-detectors://9"><span class="s5">2880 Broadway, New York, NY.</span></a> The difference between the science behind NASA-GISS reports and the science behind Apollo missions is greater than the difference between Broadway and the Houston Space Flight Center. See </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.therightclimatestuff.com/"><span class="s6">http://www.therightclimatestuff.com...</span></a></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>Number of the Week: 99.98%</b> As stated in last week’s TWTW: According to reports, on Dec. 1, construction of the 1,172-mile Dakota Access Pipeline will be all but finished. The only thing left to build, says its owner, Energy Transfer Partners, will be about 1,100 feet of pipe to be laid beneath Lake Oahe, a sliver of water south of Bismarck, N.D., that is man-created by a dam on the Missouri River. The pipe will be drilled underneath the river bed, and will not disturb it. Laying of the $3.5 Billion pipeline was 99.98% complete.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">This week, the administration killed construction by refusing to issue necessary permits, even though the pipeline developers won past court challenges.</span><span class="s2"><br />
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</span><span class="s1">In addition to an enormous increase in National Debt, the US is in the worst economic recovery since the Great Depression. Is there any question why? See links under Washington’s Control of Energy.</span></div>
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</span><span class="s1">Thank you -- whether you celebrate Hanukkah, Christmas, or other holy days during this time, we wish you and your family happiness in this blessed season and a joyful new year.</span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1">Kenneth Haapala, President </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)</span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1">SEPP is a 501(c)3 organization incorporated in Virginia with the Federal Tax ID of #54-1645372.</span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1">The donated funds will be used exclusively in furtherance of SEPP’s charitable purpose and will not be used to fulfill any pledge, personal obligation, or lobbying activities. SEPP provides no direct benefit to donors as a result of their donations.</span></div>
<div class="p3">
<span class="s2"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>NEWS YOU CAN USE:</b></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>Dem senator: Trump’s EPA pick is ‘corruption’</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Devin Henry, The Hill, Dec 8, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/309432-dem-senator-trumps-epa-pick-is-corruption"><span class="s6">http://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><i>[SEPP Comment: As corrupt as the “witch hunt” in which Sen. Whitehouse participated?]</i></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>The disclosure that could end Eric Schneiderman’s career</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Editorial, New York Post, Dec 4, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://nypost.com/2016/12/04/the-disclosure-that-could-end-eric-schneidermans-career/"><span class="s6">http://nypost.com/2016/12/04/the-di...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">“A state judge ruled in favor of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a think tank whose Freedom of Information request the AG had denied. That gave Schneiderman 30 days to cough up documents concerning his agreements with other states’ AGs, and with a group of green activists, about their joint persecution of ExxonMobile and other entities for supposed ‘climate fraud.’”</span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Challenging the Orthodoxy -- NIPCC</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf"><span class="s6">http://www.sepp.org/publications/ni...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Overcoming Chaotic Behavior of Climate Models</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By S. Fred Singer, SEPP, July 2010 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/Chaotic_Behavior_July_2011_Final.doc"><span class="s6">http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://climatechangereconsidered.org/"><span class="s6">http://climatechangereconsidered.or...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Download with no charge </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming"><span class="s6">https://www.heartland.org/policy-do...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf"><span class="s6">https://www.heartland.org/media-lib...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Summary: </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf"><span class="s6">http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf"><span class="s6">http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Summary: </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf"><span class="s6">https://www.heartland.org/media-lib...</span></a></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Challenging the Orthodoxy</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>Prepared Testimony to House Committee on Science, Space & Technology</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By John Christy, UAH, Feb 2, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/HHRG-114-SY-WState-JChristy-20160202.pdf"><span class="s6">https://science.house.gov/sites/rep...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>On the Existence of a “Tropical Hotspot” & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Wallace, Christy, and D’Aleo, Independent Researchers, August 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/ef-cpp-sc-2016-data-ths-paper-ex-sum-101416.pdf"><span class="s6">https://thsresearch.files.wordpress...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Finally there’s agreement: Ocean cycles are responsible for the missing warming since 2000</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, (German text translated, edited by P Gosselin) No Tricks Zone, Dec 9, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://notrickszone.com/2016/12/09/a-shower-of-papers-new-climate-models-show-natural-oceanic-cycles-the-recent-major-climate-factor/#sthash.gmqCoVh0.dpbs"><span class="s6">http://notrickszone.com/2016/12/09/...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><i>[SEPP Comment: Under: A Showerof Papers, New Climate Models, Show Natural Oceanic Cycles The Recent Major Climate Factor!]</i></span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Latest on The Myth of More Severe Storms</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 9, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2016/12/09/latest-on-the-myth-of-more-severe-storms/"><span class="s6">https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2016...</span></a></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Defending the Orthodoxy</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Jule G. Charney, et al, Climate Research Board, National Academy of Sciences, July 23-27, 1979 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/12181/chapter/1#vii"><span class="s6">https://www.nap.edu/read/12181/chap...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Endangerment and Cause or Contributed Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Benjamin DeAngelo, et al. EPA – Includes Alan Carlin (an opponent of the finding) </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Expert reviewers include: William Emanuel, NASA, Thomas Karl, NOAA, Gavin Schmidt, NASA, Susan Solomon, NOAA, Dec 7, 2009 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-08/documents/endangerment_tsd.pdf"><span class="s6">https://www.epa.gov/sites/productio...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">p. 47 (59 on my screen) </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">5(a) Attribution of Observed Climate Change to Anthropogenic Emissions</span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>How to make climate progress with Trump in the White House</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Daniel Cohan, The Hill, Dec 9, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/309612-how-to-make-climate-progress-with-trump-in-white-house"><span class="s6">http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-bl...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><i>[SEPP Comment: No demand to show the data that CO2 is the cause!]</i></span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Leaked Transition Team Memo Outlines Trump’s Catastrophic Energy Agenda</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Joshua Hill, Clean Technica, Dec 8, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/08/leaked-transition-team-memo-outlines-trumps-catastrophic-energy-agenda/"><span class="s6">https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/0...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><i>[SEPP Comment: The author states: “I'm a Christian, a nerd, a geek, and I believe that we're pretty quickly directing planet-Earth into hell in a handbasket!”]</i></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Questioning the Orthodoxy</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>Clearing the air</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Dec 9, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://scientific-alliance.org/node/1029"><span class="s6">http://scientific-alliance.org/node...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Has the AGW hypothesis been falsified again?</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Geoff Brown, Australian Climate Sceptics, Dec 10, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2016/12/has-agw-hypothesis-been-falsified-again.html"><span class="s6">http://theclimatescepticsparty.blog...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Link to earlier article: Climate-cooling aerosols can form from tree vapors </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Pollution’s sulfuric acid not needed to make cloud-seeding particles in the air </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Thomas Sumner, Science News, May 25, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/climate-cooling-aerosols-can-form-tree-vapors"><span class="s6">https://www.sciencenews.org/article...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Trump Induced Panic Exposes Media Bias and Ignorance of Climate</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball, WUWT, Dec 6, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/06/trump-induced-panic-exposes-media-bias-and-ignorance-of-climate/"><span class="s6">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">“It is not the same people who said tobacco was healthy. This is an apparent reference to the early attempt to link Fred Singer to the tobacco industry. Fred wrote a critical review of the terrible research in the original article claiming to link cancer to second-hand smoke. His review was later supported by others. Environmentalists used to claim Fred was paid by the tobacco companies and in favor of smoking. In fact, Fred has always actively and openly opposed smoking.”</span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>After Brexit!</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>145 MPs warn Brexit should not lead to cull of climate laws</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Greener UK coalition of 13 civil society groups and a fifth of sitting British MPs urge government to safeguard climate and environment laws </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Ed King, Climate Change News, Dec 8, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/12/08/145-mps-warn-brexit-should-not-lead-to-cull-of-climate-laws/?utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-29e55e5f9e-303439889&utm_content=bufferbd8bb&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer"><span class="s6">http://www.climatechangenews.com/20...</span></a></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>After The US Election -- Opposed</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>EPA fears 'unprecedented disaster' for environment over Scott Pruitt pick</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Senate Democrats vow to fight Trump’s nominee to lead the EPA, a climate denier who has sued the agency multiple times as attorney general of Oklahoma </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Oliver Milman, Guardian, UK, Dec 8, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/08/epa-scott-pruitt-disaster-environment-senate-democrats"><span class="s6">https://www.theguardian.com/environ...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Trump pricks prominent climate skeptic as EPA chief</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By David Malakoff, Science Mag, Dec 7, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/12/trump-picks-prominent-climate-skeptic-epa-chief"><span class="s6">http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Trump's EPA pick may struggle to dismantle Obama's environmental legacy</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Valerie Volcovici and David Shepardson, Reuters, Dec 9, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-epa-idUSKBN13Y183"><span class="s6">http://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Greens slam Trump’s Interior Department pick</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Dec 9, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/309719-greens-slam-trumps-interior-department-pick"><span class="s6">http://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><i>[SEPP Comment: Will she stem the increase in government control of US lands?]</i></span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>If Trump wants to dismantle Obama’s EPA rules, here are all the obstacles he’ll face</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Brad Plumer, Vox, Dec 8, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2016/12/7/13855470/donald-trump-epa-climate-regulations"><span class="s6">http://www.vox.com/energy-and-envir...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Three Reasons Trump Doesn't Matter To Energy Policy</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Jeff McMahon, Forbes, Dec 7, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2016/12/07/three-reasons-trump-doesnt-matter-to-energy-policy/#75870d512d12"><span class="s6">http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcm...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><i>[SEPP Comment: According to the article: 1. Most effective energy policies are set at the state level, 2. Momentum favors clean energy, and 3. Technology trumps commodity. Why has the emphasis of the greens been on 1) Federal policy such as the Administration’s power plan and the EPA; 2) subsidies for wind and solar, and 3) ignoring that solar and wind power cannot be commercially stored.]</i></span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Trump Team’s Memo Hints at Broad Shake-Up of U.S. Energy Policy</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Catherine Traywick and Jennifer Dlouhy, Bloomberg, Dec 8, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/trump-team-s-memo-hints-at-broad-shake-up-of-u-s-energy-policy"><span class="s6">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Trump team wants names at DOE who worked on climate</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Devin Henry, The Hill, Dec 9, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/309607-report-trump-memo-probes-obama-climate-work-clean-energy-research"><span class="s6">http://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><i>[SEPP Comment: Great propaganda photo of condensing steam from cooling towers. Could it be from a nuclear power plant?]</i></span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Trump Team Memo Hints at Big Shake-Up of U.S. Energy Policy</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Catherine Traywick and Jennifer A Dlouhy, Bloomberg, Dec 8, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/trump-team-s-memo-hints-at-broad-shake-up-of-u-s-energy-policy"><span class="s6">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Trump and the End of the West?</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">If America’s president-elect delivers on his promises, the long-term costs – both domestic and international – are likely to outweigh any short-term gains. If he fails to deliver, the long-term costs will fall due much sooner. </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Staff Writers, Project Syndicate, Dec 9, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/trump-and-the-end-of-the-west-2016-12"><span class="s6">https://www.project-syndicate.org/o...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><i>[SEPP Comment: A review “of the best thinking on current events and key trends.”]</i></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>After US Election -- Neutral</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>Trump's EPA pick will make Obama regret his environmental overreach</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Patrick Michaels, The Hill, Dec 8, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/309484-trumps-epa-pick-will-make-obama-regret-his"><span class="s6">http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-bl...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Pragmatic energy policy recommendations for the Trump administration</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By David Gattie, Climate Etc. Dec 8, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://judithcurry.com/2016/12/08/pragmatic-energy-policy-recommendations-for-the-trump-administration/?utm_content=buffer051fc&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#more-22576"><span class="s6">https://judithcurry.com/2016/12/08/...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>“Post-Truth” Media Should Look in the Mirror</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Dec 6, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/12/post-truth-media-should-look-in-the-mirror.php"><span class="s6">http://www.powerlineblog.com/archiv...</span></a></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>After The US Election -- Favorable</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>How Trump’s Climate Skepticism Can Play a Crucial Role in Achieving His Larger Objectives</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Dec 9, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/3234"><span class="s6">http://www.carlineconomics.com/arch...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Trump’s Election Means A Chance For “A Return To Reason In Climate Policy”, German Expert Writes</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 4, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://notrickszone.com/2016/12/04/trump-election-means-a-good-chance-for-a-return-to-reason-in-climate-policy-german-expert-writes/#sthash.yH6UkfN4.dpbs"><span class="s6">http://notrickszone.com/2016/12/04/...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Trump EPA nomination a home run! Scott Pruitt tapped to reform EPA</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Staff Writers, ICECAP, Dec 9, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/trump_epa_nomination_a_home_run_scott_pruitt_tapped_to_reform_epa/"><span class="s6">http://icecap.us/index.php/go/polit...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Rolling back environmental progress?</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Having achieved major goals, US should refocus EPA and other environmental agencies </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Paul Driessen, ICECAP, Dec 4, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://icecap.us/index.php/go/icing-the-hype/rolling_back_environmental_progress1/"><span class="s6">http://icecap.us/index.php/go/icing...</span></a></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Problems in the Orthodoxy</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>SHOCK: The ‘Father of global warming’, James Hansen, dials back alarm</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 3, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/03/shock-the-father-of-global-warming-james-hansen-dials-back-alarm/"><span class="s6">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12...</span></a></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Seeking a Common Ground</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>Climate Heretic: to be or not to be?</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 5, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://judithcurry.com/2016/12/05/climate-heretic-to-be-or-not-to-be/"><span class="s6">https://judithcurry.com/2016/12/05/...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>‘Truthiness’ and ‘factiness’ in politicized scientific debates</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 3, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://judithcurry.com/2016/12/03/truthiness-and-factiness-in-politicized-scientific-debates/"><span class="s6">https://judithcurry.com/2016/12/03/...</span></a></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>The Growth Benefits of Elevated CO2 Overwhelm the Growth Damages of Ozone on Wheat</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Rao, M.V., Hale, B.A. and Ormrod, D.P. 1995. Amelioration of ozone-induced oxidative damage in wheat plants grown under high carbon dioxide. <i>Plant Physiology</i> 109: 421-432. Dec 7, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/dec/a5.php"><span class="s6">http://www.co2science.org/articles/...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">“In other words, the beneficial effects of elevated CO2 not only fully compensated for the dry weight loss due to elevated ozone, it completely overcame it as if this stress was never present! And driving this point home, Rao et al. write ‘we did not observe an adverse impact of O3 on the shoot biomass of wheat plants grown under high CO2.’"</span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>Massive Corals Can Adapt to End-of-Century CO2 Concentrations</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Wall, M., Fietzke, J., Schmidt, G.M., Fink, A., Hofmann, L.C., de Beer, D. and Fabricius K.E. 2016. Internal pH regulation facilitates <i>in situ</i> long-term acclimation of massive corals to end-of-century carbon dioxide conditions. <i>Scientific Reports</i> 6: 10.1038/srep30688. Dec 6, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/dec/a4.php"><span class="s6">http://www.co2science.org/articles/...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><i>[SEPP Comment: Corals adapt to changing pH in natural CO2 seeps – indicating that experiments shocking life in aquariums by suddenly lowering pH are grossly misleading.]</i></span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>How Birds Regulate their Body Temperatures as Climates Warm</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Nilsson, J.-A., Molokwu, M.N. and Olsson, O. 2016. Body temperature regulation in hot environments. <i>PLOS ONE</i> 11(8): eO161481.doi:1371/journal.pone.0161481. Dec 5, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/dec/a3.php"><span class="s6">http://www.co2science.org/articles/...</span></a></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Models v. Observations</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>New Paper Debunks Ad Hoc ‘Explanation’ That Antarctic Sea Ice Has Been Growing Since ’80s Due To Human Activity</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 8, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://notrickszone.com/2016/12/08/new-paper-debunks-ad-hoc-explanation-that-antarctic-sea-ice-has-been-growing-since-80s-due-to-human-activity/#sthash.ptCeIZjf.dpbs"><span class="s6">http://notrickszone.com/2016/12/08/...</span></a></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Model Issues</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>CLOUD experiment sharpens climate predictions</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">Press Release by Matthew Chalmers, CERN, Oct 28, 2016 [H/t Australian Climate Skeptics] </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://home.cern/about/updates/2016/10/cloud-experiment-sharpens-climate-predictions"><span class="s6">https://home.cern/about/updates/201...</span></a></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Measurement Issues -- Surface</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>Despite Denial, Global Temperatures Are Dropping Fast</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Dec 5, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://www.thegwpf.com/despite-denial-global-temperatures-are-dropping-fast/"><span class="s6">http://www.thegwpf.com/despite-deni...</span></a><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1"><b>November 2016 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations, Dec 6, 2016 [H/t GWPF] </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2016/12/06/november-2016-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/"><span class="s6">https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/20...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><i>[SEPP Question: A gradual increase in sea surface temperatures, with lots of noise. Is the increase due to gradual warming or change in measurement techniques such as location of instruments?]</i></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Changing Weather</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>Historic December cold and Lake-effect snows coming</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow, ICECAP, Dec 7, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/historic_december_cold_and_lake_effect_snows_coming1/"><span class="s6">http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-a...</span></a></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Changing Seas</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b>3 New Papers: Global Seas Now Rising About 2 Inches Per Century … Claims Of 1 Meter Rise By 2100 ‘Sheer Nonsense’</b> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1">By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 5, 2016 </span><span class="s2"><br />
<a href="http://notrickszone.com/2016/12/05/3-new-papers-global-seas-now-rising-about-2-inches-per-century-claims-of-1-meter-rise-by-2100-sheer-nonsense/#sthash.u2144p99.dpbs"><span class="s6">http://notrickszone.com/2016/12/05/...</span></a></span><span class="s1"> </span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s1"><i>[SEPP Comment: The most widely cited estimate suffers from the same problems many alarmist papers do, long-term projections from short-term trends, which may be from local conditions.]</i></span></div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s1"><b><i>Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p5">
<span class="s2"><b>An El Niño year late start to freeze-up on Hudson Bay: bears gearing up to hunt</b> </span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-45219139298256931482016-11-04T11:49:00.003-07:002016-11-04T12:46:28.527-07:00All the "physical and math proof" needed that the "gravito/thermal greenhouse" and Coriolois Forces, rel humidity, & atmospheric heat capacity P/T ratio is local & total -g/Cp LTE doing continuous @Work on atmosphere to establish the "GHE"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">IMHO all the "math & visual information" necessary to completely understand why there is only a "true" gravito/thermal GHE, and why that gravito/thermal GHE and Arrhenius "radiative GHE" are just the dichotomy of Y/N ways anyone can rightly use to discuss "the GHE" as a "local and total thermo/dynamic equilibrium, which is what the "GHE" really is"</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If anyone has any Q/Point to ask the Hockey Schtick el al re the graphic or my description of the graphic below, please do so in the comments below. Thank you. </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-WRZm31rP3SlXMVE1u-wvzY7QfKFMwtU7RUwJ-YKRsRUEZxJcM_JRqipDOMv329TyCSLPup78NQYqGUfYUvWKIK-5pIZPbPyR_4SJRnG1rHMe6Xk0vXzX61afm3c0hA3vdaB13TQg9Lc/s1600/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_NH_2015.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-WRZm31rP3SlXMVE1u-wvzY7QfKFMwtU7RUwJ-YKRsRUEZxJcM_JRqipDOMv329TyCSLPup78NQYqGUfYUvWKIK-5pIZPbPyR_4SJRnG1rHMe6Xk0vXzX61afm3c0hA3vdaB13TQg9Lc/s640/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_NH_2015.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-58288137647816032612016-11-04T11:49:00.002-07:002016-11-04T12:00:41.034-07:00All the "physical and math proof" needed that the "gravito/thermal greenhouse" and Coriolois Forces, rel humidity, & atmospheric heat capacity P/T ratio is local & total -g/Cp LTE doing continuous @Work on atmosphere to establish the "GHE"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
IMHO all the "math & visual information" necessary to completely understand why there is only a "true" gravito/thermal GHE, and why that gravito/thermal GHE and Arrhenius "radiative GHE" are just the dichotomy of Y/N ways anyone can rightly use to discuss "the GHE" as a "local and total thermo/dynamic equilibrium, which is what the "GHE" really is"</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-WRZm31rP3SlXMVE1u-wvzY7QfKFMwtU7RUwJ-YKRsRUEZxJcM_JRqipDOMv329TyCSLPup78NQYqGUfYUvWKIK-5pIZPbPyR_4SJRnG1rHMe6Xk0vXzX61afm3c0hA3vdaB13TQg9Lc/s1600/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_NH_2015.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-WRZm31rP3SlXMVE1u-wvzY7QfKFMwtU7RUwJ-YKRsRUEZxJcM_JRqipDOMv329TyCSLPup78NQYqGUfYUvWKIK-5pIZPbPyR_4SJRnG1rHMe6Xk0vXzX61afm3c0hA3vdaB13TQg9Lc/s640/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_NH_2015.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-79530495988146070922016-10-18T14:16:00.000-07:002016-10-18T14:16:05.930-07:00New paper demonstrates a large gravito-thermal greenhouse effect on Earth<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A paper published today in </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Geophysical Research Letters</i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> confirms the </span><a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/08/new-paper-confirms-gravito-thermal.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">gravito-thermal greenhouse effect in Earth's atmosphere</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> using a computer model of the lower-mass early Earth atmosphere compared to the higher-mass present day atmosphere. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">According to the authors, </span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Using a 3D idealized global circulation model (GCM), </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">we systematically examine the thermodynamic effect of atmospheric mass on near-surface temperature. We find that higher atmospheric mass tends to increase the near-surface temperature mostly due an increase in the heat capacity of the atmosphere, which decreases the net radiative cooling effect in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Additionally, the vertical advection of heat by eddies decreases with increasing atmospheric mass, resulting in further near-surface warming.</b></i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The authors find, </span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"The convective fluxes may decrease with increasing surface pressure due to an increase of the moist adiabatic lapse rate and therefore an increase of the near surface temperature [Goldblatt et al 2009]</span> </i></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Increased atmospheric mass, which decreases low-latitude radiative warming and high-latitude cooling, tends to flatten the meridional temperature gradient and this may ... <b>trap heat at the surface.</b>"</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">According to the authors, a doubling of surface pressure causes a large surface temperature warming of <b>15C after all feedbacks</b>. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The authors conclude,</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>An increase in atmospheric mass causes an increase in near-surface temperatures and a decrease of the equator-pole near-surface temperature gradient. Warming is caused mostly by the increase in atmospheric heat capacity, which decrease the net radiative cooling of the atmosphere. </i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thus, the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect has been modelled to cause a ~15C surface warming per doubling of atmospheric pressure on Earth. This is compared to a ~3C surface warming per doubled CO2 according to the [faulty] IPCC models. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The ~33C <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/07/physicist-richard-feynman-proved.html">gravito-thermal greenhouse effect</a> on Earth leaves no room for an additional 33C Arrhenius radiative greenhouse effect, thus ruling out any significant greenhouse effect from increased CO2. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<h3 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 1.34783rem; letter-spacing: -0.04em; line-height: 1.55rem; margin: 3rem 0px 1.5rem; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility;">
<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/doi?DOI=10.1002%2F2016GL071279">The thermodynamic effect of atmospheric mass on early Earth's temperature</a></h3>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-size: 13.125px;">
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; margin-top: 1.5rem;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Observations suggest that Earth's early atmospheric mass differed from the present day. The effects of a different atmospheric mass on radiative forcing have been investigated in climate models of variable sophistication, but a mechanistic understanding of the thermodynamic component of the effect of atmospheric mass on early climate is missing. Using a 3D idealized global circulation model (GCM), <b>we systematically examine the thermodynamic effect of atmospheric mass on near-surface temperature. We find that higher atmospheric mass tends to increase the near-surface temperature mostly due an increase in the heat capacity of the atmosphere, which decreases the net radiative cooling effect in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Additionally, the vertical advection of heat by eddies decreases with increasing atmospheric mass, resulting in further near-surface warming. </b>As both net radiative cooling and vertical eddy heat fluxes are extratropical phenomena, higher atmospheric mass tends to flatten the meridional temperature gradient.</span></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-17030732680490538372016-09-10T13:05:00.005-07:002016-09-10T13:18:23.173-07:00New Scaffeta paper finds planetary resonance drives cosmic rays & climate change<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A new paper by Dr. Nicola Scafetta <i>et al</i> published in<i> Earth Science Reviews</i> finds an astronomical origin of the ~2100-2500 year Hallstatt cycle found in "cosmogenic radioisotopes <span style="background-color: white; color: #2e2e2e; line-height: 23.68px; word-spacing: -1.24453px;"> (</span><sup style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #2e2e2e; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; word-spacing: -1.24453px;">14</sup><span style="background-color: white; color: #2e2e2e; line-height: 23.68px; word-spacing: -1.24453px;">C and </span><sup style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #2e2e2e; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; word-spacing: -1.24453px;">10</sup><span style="background-color: white; color: #2e2e2e; line-height: 23.68px; word-spacing: -1.24453px;">Be) and in paleoclimate records throughout the Holocene."</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The authors,</span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><b style="background-color: white; color: #2e2e2e; line-height: 23.68px; word-spacing: -1.24453px;">"show strong evidences for an astronomical origin of this cycle. Namely, this oscillation is coherent to a repeating pattern in the periodic revolution of the planets around the Sun: the major stable resonance involving the four Jovian planets - Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune - which has a period of about <span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">p</span> = 2318 year</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #2e2e2e; line-height: 23.68px; word-spacing: -1.24453px;">s. Inspired by the Milanković’s theory of an astronomical origin of the glacial cycles, we test whether the Hallstatt cycle could derive from the rhythmic variation of the circularity of the solar system disk assuming that this dynamics could eventually modulate the solar wind and, consequently, the incoming cosmic ray flux and/or the interplanetary/cosmic dust concentration around the Earth-Moon system."</span></i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">According to the authors,</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b style="background-color: white; color: #2e2e2e; line-height: 23.68px; word-spacing: -1.24453px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>"the rhythmic contraction and expansion of the solar system driven by a major resonance involving the movements of the four Jovian planets appear to work as a gravitational/electromagnetic pump that increases and decreases the cosmic ray and dust densities inside the inner region of the solar system, which then modulate both the radionucleotide production and climate change by means of a cloud/albedo modulation."</i></span></b></blockquote>
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<h1 class="svTitle" id="ti0005" style="border: 0px; clear: both; color: inherit; font-size: 22px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 12px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453">On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene</a></h1>
<ul class="authorGroup noCollab svAuthor" style="border: 0px; display: inline; list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 6px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li class="smh5" style="border: 0px; display: inline; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="authorName svAuthor" data-fn="Nicola" data-ln="Scafetta" data-orcid="0000-0003-0967-1911" data-pos="1" data-t="a" data-tb="" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453#" id="authname_N6ea1b200N6e93d428" style="border: 0px; color: #316c9d; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Nicola Scafetta</a><a class="intra_ref auth_aff" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453#af0005" id="baf0005" style="border: 0px; color: #316c9d; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Affiliation: a"><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.7em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">a</sup></a><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.7em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">, </sup><a class="intra_ref auth_corr" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453#cr0005" id="bcr0005" style="background-image: url("/sd/img/articleSpriteVert_1609R1.png"); background-position: 0% -3869px; background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; color: #316c9d; display: inline-block; height: 16px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: top; width: 16px;" title="Corresponding author contact information"></a><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.7em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">, </sup><a class="auth_mail" href="mailto:nicola.scafetta@unina.it" style="background-image: url("/sd/img/articleSpriteVert_1609R1.png"); background-position: 0% -3885px; background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; color: #316c9d; display: inline-block; height: 16px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: top; width: 16px;" title="E-mail the corresponding author"></a>, </li>
<li class="smh5" style="border: 0px; display: inline; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="authorName svAuthor" data-fn="Franco" data-ln="Milani" data-orcid="0000-0001-7721-7214" data-pos="2" data-t="a" data-tb="" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453#" id="authname_N6ea1b200N6e93d590" style="border: 0px; color: #316c9d; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Franco Milani</a><a class="intra_ref auth_aff" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453#af0010" id="baf0010" style="border: 0px; color: #316c9d; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Affiliation: b"><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.7em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">b</sup></a>, </li>
<li class="smh5" style="border: 0px; display: inline; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="authorName svAuthor" data-fn="Antonio" data-ln="Bianchini" data-orcid="" data-pos="3" data-t="a" data-tb="" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453#" id="authname_N6ea1b200N6e93d644" style="border: 0px; color: #316c9d; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Antonio Bianchini</a><a class="intra_ref auth_aff" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453#af0015" id="baf0015" style="border: 0px; color: #316c9d; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Affiliation: c"><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.7em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">c</sup></a><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.7em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">, </sup><a class="intra_ref auth_aff" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453#af0020" id="baf0020" style="border: 0px; color: #316c9d; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Affiliation: d"><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.7em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">d</sup></a>, </li>
<li class="smh5" style="border: 0px; display: inline; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="authorName svAuthor" data-fn="Sergio" data-ln="Ortolani" data-orcid="" data-pos="4" data-t="a" data-tb="" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453#" id="authname_N6ea1b200N6e93d770" style="border: 0px; color: #316c9d; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Sergio Ortolani</a></li>
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<div class="abstract svAbstract " data-etype="ab" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<h2 class="secHeading" id="authorab00051" style="border: 0px; clear: both; color: #5c5c5c; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 100; line-height: inherit; margin: 20px 0px 6px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Abstract</h2>
<div id="sp0080" style="border: 0px; margin-bottom: 9px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-spacing: -0.15ex;">
<b>An oscillation with a period of about 2100–2500 years, the Hallstatt cycle, is found in cosmogenic radioisotopes (<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">14</sup>C and <sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">10</sup>Be) and in paleoclimate records throughout the Holocene. This oscillation is typically associated with solar variations, but its primary physical origin remains uncertain. Herein we show strong evidences for an astronomical origin of this cycle. Namely, this oscillation is coherent to a repeating pattern in the periodic revolution of the planets around the Sun: the major stable resonance involving the four Jovian planets - Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune - which has a period of about <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">p</em> = 2318 year</b>s. Inspired by the Milanković’s theory of an astronomical origin of the glacial cycles, we test whether the Hallstatt cycle could derive from the rhythmic variation of the circularity of the solar system disk assuming that this dynamics could eventually modulate the solar wind and, consequently, the incoming cosmic ray flux and/or the interplanetary/cosmic dust concentration around the Earth-Moon system. The orbit of the planetary mass center (PMC) relative to the Sun is used as a proxy. We analyzed how the instantaneous eccentricity vector of this virtual orbit varies from 13,000 BCE to 17,000 CE. <b>We found that it undergoes a kind of pulsations and clearly presents rhythmic contraction and expansion patterns with a 2318 year period together with a number of already known faster oscillations associated to the planetary orbital stable resonances. There exists a quasi <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">π</em>/2 phase shift between the 2100–2500 year oscillation found in the <sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">14</sup></b>C record and that of the calculated eccentricity function. Namely, at the Hallstatt-cycle time scale, a larger production of radionucleotide particles occurs while the Sun-PMC orbit evolves from more elliptical shapes (<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">e</em> ≈ 0.598) to more circular ones (<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">e</em> ≈ 0.590), that is while the orbital system is slowly imploding or bursting inward; a smaller production of radionucleotide particles occurs while the Sun-PMC orbit evolves from more circular shapes (<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">e</em> ≈ 0.590) to a more elliptical ones (<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">e</em> ≈ 0.598), that is while the orbital system is slowly exploding or bursting outward. Since at this timescale the PMC eccentricity variation is relatively small (<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">e</em> = 0.594 ± 0.004), <b>the physical origin of the astronomical 2318 year cycle is better identified and distinguished from faster orbital oscillations by the times it takes the PMC to make pericycles and epicycles around the Sun and the times it takes to move from minimum to maximum distance from the Sun within those arcs. These particular proxies reveal a macroscopic 2318 year period oscillation, together with other three stable outer planet orbital resonances with periods of 159, 171 and 185 years.</b> <b>This 2318 year oscillation is found to be spectrally coherent with the <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Δ</em><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">14</sup>C Holocene record with a statistical confidence above 95%, as determined by spectral analysis and cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis. </b>At the Hallstatt time scale, maxima of the radionucleotide production occurred when, within each pericycle-apocycle orbital arc, the time required by the PMC to move from the minimum to the maximum distance from the Sun varies from about 8 to 16 years while the time required by the same to move from the maximum to the minimum distance from the Sun varies from about 7 to 14 years, and vice versa. <b>Thus, we found that a fast expansion of the Sun-PMC orbit followed by a slow contraction appears to prevent cosmic rays to enter within the system inner region while a slow expansion followed by a fast contraction favors it. Similarly, the same dynamics could modulate the amount of interplanetary/cosmic dust falling on Earth. Indeed, many other stable orbital resonance frequencies (e.g. at periods of 20 years, 45 years, 60 years, 85 years, 159–171–185 years) are found in radionucleotide, solar, aurora and climate records, as determined in the scientific literature. Thus, the result supports a planetary theory of solar and/or climate variation that has recently received a renewed attention. In our particular case, the rhythmic contraction and expansion of the solar system driven by a major resonance involving the movements of the four Jovian planets appear to work as a gravitational/electromagnetic pump that increases and decreases the cosmic ray and dust densities inside the inner region of the solar system, which then modulate both the radionucleotide production and climate change by means of a cloud/albedo modulation.</b></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-86960513009116076382016-09-07T09:32:00.001-07:002016-09-07T09:35:04.720-07:00New paper finds climate change & CO2 levels explained as a function of lagged solar activity<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A new paper under open review for <i>Earth System Dynamics </i>finds Holocene climate change can be explained on the basis of lagged responses to changes of solar activity. According to the author,</span><br />
<div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This paper analyzes the lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, as part of cosmic-solar-terrestrial processes. Firstly, we analyze and model the lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, previously detected for geological and orbital scale processes, with simple non-linear functions, and we estimate a correspondent </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">lag of ~1600-yr</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> for the recently detected ~9500-yr scale solar recurrent patterns. </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Secondly, a recurrent and lagged linear influence of solar variation on volcanic activity and carbon dioxide (CO2) has been assessed for the last millennia</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">, and extrapolated for future centuries and millennia. As a consequence we found that, on one side, </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">the recent CO2 increase can be considered as a lagged response to solar activity</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">, and, on the other side,</span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> the continental tropical climate signal during late Holocene can be considered as a sum of three lagged responses to solar activity, through direct, and indirect (volcanic and CO2), influences with different lags of around 40, 800 and 1600 years.</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span></i></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Note the ~1600 year lag of response to solar activity is essentially the same as the well-known <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/10/new-paper-explains-1500-year-climate.html">~1500 year "never-ending climate cycle" identified by numerous peer-reviewed, published papers.</a></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Note also the paper explains CO2 levels on the basis of a lagged function of solar activity, due to variations in solar heating of the oceans, and ocean in-gassing and out-gassing of CO2, not as a result of the ~4% CO2 contribution from mankind. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The paper shows the (noisy) 1600-year climate cycle in the ice core 10Be proxy of solar activity of the past 1800 years peaked in the 1900's. The orange lines are modeled on the basis of a function of three lagged compenents of solar activity cycles and is currently on a downswing until ~2100, indicating potentially cooler Earth temperatures ahead. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; text-align: start;">According to the author, "we propose the global ocean circulation processes, that include the well known meridional overturning circulation, and the thermohaline circulation, as a </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: start;">global mechanism capable of explaining the lagged forcing (volcanic activity & CO2) and continental tropical climate responses to solar activity variations."</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /><b><a href="http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2016-38/">The Earth’s climate system recurrent & multi-scale lagged responses: empirical law, evidence, consequent solar explanation of recent CO2 increases & preliminary analysis</a></b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />Jorge Sánchez-Sesma<br /><br />Received: 18 Aug 2016 – Accepted: 31 Aug 2016 – Published: 07 Sep 2016</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Abstract. This paper analyzes the lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, as part of cosmic-solar-terrestrial processes. Firstly, we analyze and model the lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, previously detected for geological and orbital scale processes, with simple non-linear functions, and we estimate a correspondent <b>lag of ~1600-yr</b> for the recently detected ~9500-yr scale solar recurrent patterns. <b>Secondly, a recurrent and lagged linear influence of solar variation on volcanic activity and carbon dioxide (CO2) has been assessed for the last millennia</b>, and extrapolated for future centuries and millennia. As a consequence we found that, on one side, <b>the recent CO2 increase can be considered as a lagged response to solar activity</b>, and, on the other side,<b> the continental tropical climate signal during late Holocene can be considered as a sum of three lagged responses to solar activity, through direct, and indirect (volcanic and CO2), influences with different lags of around 40, 800 and 1600 years.</b> Thirdly, we find more examples of this ~1600-yr lag, associated with oceanic processes throughout the Holocene, manifested in the mineral content of SE Pacific waters, and in a carbon cycle index, CO3, in the Southern Atlantic. Fourthly, we propose the global ocean circulation processes, that include the well known meridional overturning circulation, and the thermohaline circulation, as a <b>global mechanism capable of explaining the lagged forcing (volcanic activity & CO2) and continental tropical climate responses to solar activity variations.</b> Finally, some conclusions are provided for the lagged responses of the Earth's climate system with their influences and consequences on present and future climate, and implications for climate modelling are preliminarily analyzed.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-90510557178892792462016-08-25T10:32:00.001-07:002016-08-25T10:32:33.443-07:00Bombshell: New study confirms 'solar activity has a direct impact on Earth's cloud cover' important to climate change<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/08/160825113235.htm">A</a> new study confirms "s<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20px;">olar variations affect the abundance of clouds in our atmosphere," a solar amplification mechanism which is </span>the basis of <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/03/new-paper-corroborates-svensmarks.html">Svensmark's theory of cosmo-climatology. </a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20px;">The solar eruptions are known to shield Earth's atmosphere from cosmic rays. However the new study, published in </span><span style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; line-height: 20px;">Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20px;">, shows that the global cloud cover is simultaneously reduced, supporting the idea that cosmic rays are important for cloud formation. The eruptions </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20px;">cause a reduction in cloud fraction of about 2 percent </b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20px;">corresponding to roughly a billion tonnes of liquid water disappearing from the atmosphere.</span></i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.48px;">As </span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.48px;"><a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=spencer+2%25+clouds" style="color: #7a7a7a; text-decoration: none;">Dr. Roy Spencer notes</a>,</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">"</span><em style="line-height: 18px;">The most obvious way for warming to be caused <b>naturally</b> is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere and ocean to result in a <b>1% or 2% </b>decrease in global cloud cover. Clouds are the Earth’s sunshade, and if cloud cover changes for any reason, you have global warming — or global cooling</em><span style="line-height: 18px;">."</span></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The IPCC models fail to consider <a href="https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=site%3Ahockeyschtick.blogspot.com%20%22solar%20amplification%22">multiple solar amplification mechanisms</a>, including cosmic rays and <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-amplified-climate-impacts-of-solar.html">numerous other amplification mechanisms</a>, thereby ignoring that solar activity can explain the 0.7C global warming since the end of the Little Ice Age in 1850. Solar activity reached a <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/09/paper-finds-solar-activity-explains.html">grand maximum in the latter half of the 20th century</a>, and <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/08/why-there-is-97-confidence-that-climate.html">accumulated solar energy (the 'sunspot integral') explains global temperature change since 1900 with greater than 97% statistical significance. </a> This new paper confirms that solar activity variation can account for a 2% variation in global cloud cover, sufficient to explain the warming of the 20th century and without any consideration of CO2 "radiative forcing."</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/08/160825113235.htm">Solar activity has a direct impact on Earth's cloud cover</a></h1>
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<dt style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; clear: left; color: #333333; float: left; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: italic; line-height: 20px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 5px; text-align: right; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 70px;">Date:</dt>
<dd id="date_posted" style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; margin-left: 90px; padding-bottom: 5px;">August 25, 2016</dd>
<dt style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; clear: left; color: #333333; float: left; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: italic; line-height: 20px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 5px; text-align: right; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 70px;">Source:</dt>
<dd id="source" style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; margin-left: 90px; padding-bottom: 5px;">Technical University of Denmark</dd>
<dt style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; clear: left; color: #333333; float: left; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: italic; line-height: 20px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 5px; text-align: right; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 70px;">Summary:</dt>
<dd id="abstract" style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-left: 90px; padding-bottom: 5px;">Solar variations affect the abundance of clouds in our atmosphere, a new study suggests. Large eruptions on the surface of the Sun can temporarily shield Earth from so-called cosmic rays which now appear to affect cloud formation.</dd></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.4;">A team of scientists from the National Space Institute at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU Space) and the Racah Institute of Physics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem has linked large solar eruptions to changes in Earth's cloud cover in a study based on over 25 years of satellite observations.</span></div>
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The solar eruptions are known to shield Earth's atmosphere from cosmic rays. However the new study, published in <em style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics</em>, shows that the global cloud cover is simultaneously reduced, supporting the idea that cosmic rays are important for cloud formation. The eruptions <b>cause a reduction in cloud fraction of about 2 percent </b>corresponding to roughly a billion tonnes of liquid water disappearing from the atmosphere.</div>
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Since clouds are known to affect global temperatures on longer timescales, the present investigation represents an important step in the understanding of clouds and climate variability.</div>
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"Earth is under constant bombardment by particles from space called galactic cosmic rays. Violent eruptions at the Sun's surface can blow these cosmic rays away from Earth for about a week. Our study has shown that when the cosmic rays are reduced in this way there is a corresponding reduction in Earth's cloud cover. <b>Since clouds are an important factor in controlling the temperature on Earth our results may have implications for climate change,</b>" explains lead author on the study Jacob Svensmark of DTU.</div>
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<strong style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">Very energetic particles</strong></div>
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These particles generate electrically charged molecules -- ions -- in Earth's atmosphere. Ions have been shown in the laboratory to enhance the formation of aerosols, which can serve as seeds for the formation of the cloud drops that make up a cloud. Whether this actually happens in the atmosphere, or only in the laboratory is a topic that has been investigated and debated for years.</div>
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When the large solar eruptions blow away the galactic cosmic rays before they reach Earth they cause a reduction in atmospheric ions of up to about 20 to -30 percent over the course of a week. So if ions affect cloud formation it should be possible to observe a decrease in cloud cover during events when the Sun blows away cosmic rays, and this is precisely what is done in this study.</div>
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The so-called 'Forbush decreases' of the cosmic rays have previously been linked to week-long changes in Earth's cloud cover but the effect has been debated at length in the scientific literature. The new study concludes that "there is a real impact of Forbush decreases on cloud microphysics" and that the results support the suggestion that "ions play a significant role in the life-cycle of clouds."</div>
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Arriving at that conclusion was, however, a hard endeavor; Very few strong Forbush decreases occur and their effect on cloud formation is expected to be close to the limit of detection using global atmospheric observations measured by satellites and land based stations. Therefore it was of the greatest importance to select the strongest events for study since they had to have the most easily detected effect. Determining this strength required combining data from about 130 stations in combination with atmospheric modeling.</div>
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<b>This new method resulted in a list of 26 events in the period of 1987-2007 ranked according to ionization. This ranked list was important for the detection of a signal, and may also shed some light on why previous studies have arrived at varied conclusions, since they have relied on events that were not necessarily ranked high on the list.</b></div>
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<strong style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">Possible long term effect</strong></div>
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The effect from Forbush decreases on clouds is too brief to have any impact on long-term temperature changes.</div>
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However <b>since clouds are affected by short term changes in galactic cosmic radiation, they may well also be affected by the slower change in Solar activity that happens on scales from tens to hundreds of years, and thus play a role in the radiation budget that determines the global temperature.</b></div>
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<b>The Suns contribution to past and future climate change may thus be larger than merely the direct changes in radiation</b>, concludes the scientists behind the new study.</div>
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<strong style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">Story Source:</strong></div>
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The above post is reprinted from <a href="http://www.space.dtu.dk/english/news/nyhed?id=B759B038-66D3-4328-BBDC-0B0A82371446" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: transparent; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c7a9f; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">materials</a> provided by <a href="http://www.dtu.dk/" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: transparent; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c7a9f; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><strong style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">Technical University of Denmark</strong></a>. The original item was written by Morten Garly Andersen. <em style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">Note: Content may be edited for style and length.</em></div>
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<strong style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">Journal Reference</strong>:</div>
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<li style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding-left: 5px;">J. Svensmark, M. B. Enghoff, N. J. Shaviv, H. Svensmark. <strong style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">The response of clouds and aerosols to cosmic ray decreases</strong>. <em style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics</em>, 2016; DOI:<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JA022689" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: transparent; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c7a9f; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">10.1002/2016JA022689</a></li>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-38637427024726958312016-07-29T14:03:00.000-07:002016-07-29T14:06:27.578-07:00Jupiter's Giant Red Spot is red hot & explained by the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A new paper published in <i>Nature</i> finds Jupiter's Great Red Spot is red hot at about 2,420</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.2px;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">F or 1,330</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.2px;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">C (i.e. almost hot enough to melt steel at 1425</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.2px;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">C) and that this observation, </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>"could solve the mystery of the unusually high temperatures observed throughout Jupiter's upper atmosphere, which <b>can't be explained by solar heating alone</b>. [nor by a radiative greenhouse effect]"</i></span></blockquote>
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<i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">"Previous heat-distribution <b>models suggested that Jupiter's atmosphere should be much cooler, largely because the planet is about fives times further from the sun than Earth is.</b> So, having ruled out solar heating from above, the authors of the new research found evidence suggesting this atmospheric heating is largely driven by a combination of gravity waves and acoustic waves generated by turbulences in the atmosphere below the Great Red Spot.</span></i></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>"Giant planets like Jupiter are measured to be <b>hundreds of degrees warmer</b> than current temperature models predict. Before now, the extremely warm temperatures observed in Jupiter's atmosphere have been difficult to explain, due to the lack of a known heat source."</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In other words, the very hot atmospheric temperatures on Jupiter cannot be due to an Arrhenius radiative greenhouse effect. The atmosphere of Jupiter is mostly comprised of the non-greenhouse gases hydrogen and helium, but does contain small amounts of the IR-active 'greenhouse' gas water vapor. However, <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2016/06/new-paper-demonstrates-gravito-thermal.html">the Maxwell/Clausius/Carnot gravito-thermal greenhouse effect perfectly explains the observed atmospheric temperature profile of Jupiter, making Jupiter the ninth planet in our solar system to follow the simple Poisson relationship of atmospheric mass/gravity/pressure to temperature. The Poisson relationship was demonstrated in another recent paper:</a></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;">Referring to fig. 1 of the paper, we find at 0.1 bar pressure on Jupiter, the corresponding temperature is</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;">~112</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;">K, and at 11 bars pressure corresponds to 400</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;">K or 260</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;">F:</span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid rgb(233, 233, 233); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 5px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5iCFayefHyHHHzXFZZ8he6Kb5cM2JczCgcnuou24mRMSPGQNN7DXeij9hSZQvNDjaBJ2v393e83Yjg_dzLw65_a4oa3HmGWMZ0S_h0XRb6TBKPJw5fLrKORIneH0_YzhiZVnbbIIZWkw/s1600/jupiter.png" imageanchor="1" style="color: #7a7a7a; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="393" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5iCFayefHyHHHzXFZZ8he6Kb5cM2JczCgcnuou24mRMSPGQNN7DXeij9hSZQvNDjaBJ2v393e83Yjg_dzLw65_a4oa3HmGWMZ0S_h0XRb6TBKPJw5fLrKORIneH0_YzhiZVnbbIIZWkw/s400/jupiter.png" style="background: transparent; border: none; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 0px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative;" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Fig 1 from the paper. The dotted line is the atmospheric temperature vs. pressure curve on Jupiter. At 11 bars pressure, the temperature is 400</span><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; text-align: left;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">K or 127</span><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; text-align: left;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">C or 260</span><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; text-align: left;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">F. </span></span></td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;">This satisfies the <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/05/maxwell-established-that-gravity.html" style="color: #7a7a7a; text-decoration: none;">Poisson Relation (which in turn is derived from the Ideal Gas Law) previously demonstrated on <strike>6</strike> 8 other celestial bodies in our solar system:</a></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;"></span>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">T/To = (P/Po)^0.286 ~= 400</span><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; text-align: left;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">K/112</span><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; text-align: left;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">K = (11 bar/0.1 bar)^.286</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">where</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">T = temperature at 11 bars pressure = </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px; text-align: center;"> 400</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;">°</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px; text-align: center;">K</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">To= temperature at top of atmosphere = </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px; text-align: center;">112</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;">°</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px; text-align: center;">K</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">P = 11 bars</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Po= pressure at top of atmosphere = 0.1 bar</span></div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;"></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;">and once again demonstrates that the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) theory is a myth, <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/05/maxwell-established-that-gravity.html" style="color: #7a7a7a; text-decoration: none;">that atmospheric temperatures are controlled by mass/gravity/pressure and are independent of greenhouse gas concentrations on any of these 9 planets with atmospheres, including Earth.</a> Adding additional CO2 plant food to the atmosphere will undoubtedly green the Earth, but Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 is effectively zero. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 18.48px;"><span style="color: #333333; line-height: 24px;">Related: </span><a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/11/how-can-uranus-have-storms-hot-enough.html" style="color: #7a7a7a; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; text-decoration: none;">How can Uranus have storms hot enough to melt steel? A runaway greenhouse effect?</a></span><br />
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<h1 class="h1" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-stretch: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 40px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.space.com/33551-jupiter-heats-up-great-red-spot.html">Jupiter's Great Red Spot is Also Red Hot, Study Shows</a></span></h1>
<h1 class="h1" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-stretch: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 40px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span class="author" itemprop="author" style="border: 0px; color: #5b5b5b; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 10px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By Samantha Mathewson, Staff Writer SPACE.com</span><span style="color: #5b5b5b; font-size: 1.4rem; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 22px;"> </span><span style="color: #5b5b5b; font-size: 1.4rem; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 22px;">|</span><span style="color: #5b5b5b; font-size: 1.4rem; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 22px;"> </span><time datetime="July 27, 2016 01:01pm ET" itemprop="datePublished" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #5b5b5b; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; vertical-align: baseline;">July 27, 2016</time></span></h1>
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Jupiter's Great Red Spot is apparently also red hot: The highest temperatures ever observed on the planet <a href="http://www.space.com/33566-jupiter-s-great-red-spot-blasting-heat-into-upper-atmosphere-video.html" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #3366cc; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">were recently detected</a> in the region above the ginormous <span class="vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: nowrap;"><span class="vm-hook" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0 , 153 , 0); border-style: none none solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #009900; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">storm</span><span class="vm-hook-icon" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 10px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 3px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 10px;"></span></span>. </div>
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The Great Red Spot (GRS) is a massive storm about twice the diameter of Earth that lies in lowest layer of Jupiter's atmosphere. About 497 miles (800 kilometers) <a href="http://www.space.com/25888-jupiter-s-great-red-shrinking-spot-spied-by-hubble-video.html" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #3366cc; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">above this humongous storm</a>, astronomers measured temperatures reaching about <b>700 degrees Fahrenheit (about 370 degrees Celsius) higher than normal</b>, James O'Donoghue, lead author of the new study and a research scientist with Boston University's (BU) Center for Space Physics, told Space.com. </div>
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<b>The new finding could solve the mystery of the unusually high temperatures observed throughout Jupiter's upper <span class="vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: nowrap;"><span class="vm-hook" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0 , 153 , 0); border-style: none none solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #009900; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">atmosphere</span><span class="vm-hook-icon" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; height: 10px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 3px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 10px;"></span></span>, which can't be explained by solar heating alone</b>.[<a href="http://www.space.com/25892-jupiter-great-red-spot-photos.html" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #3366cc; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Jupiter's Great Red Spot: Photos of the Solar System's Biggest Storm</a>] </div>
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Generally, atmospheric temperatures on Jupiter are around 1,700 <span class="vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: nowrap;"><span class="vm-hook" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0 , 153 , 0); border-style: none none solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #009900; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">degrees</span><span class="vm-hook-icon" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 10px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 3px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 10px;"></span></span> F (around <b>930 degrees C)</b>, with the exception of areas above the planet's poles, which <a href="http://www.space.com/33311-jupiter-auroras-firework-show-video.html" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #3366cc; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">are heated by auroras</a>. Above the Great Red Spot, however, the atmosphere is about 2,420 <span class="vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: nowrap;"><span class="vm-hook" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0 , 153 , 0); border-style: none none solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #009900; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">degrees</span><span class="vm-hook-icon" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 10px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 3px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 10px;"></span></span> F (about <b>1,330 degrees C</b>), O'Donoghue said. </div>
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<figure class="figure" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #5b5b5b; display: table; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.2rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 12px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 553px;"><div class="magnify-wrapper iZoom img-zoom-in" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<img alt="Observations show that Jupiter's upper atmosphere — above the Great Red Spot — is hundreds of degrees hotter than anywhere else on the planet." big-src="http://www.space.com/images/i/000/057/095/original/jupiter-great-red-spot.jpg?1469576038?interpolation=lanczos-none&downsize=*:1400" class="pure-img" src="http://www.space.com/images/i/000/057/095/i02/jupiter-great-red-spot.jpg?1469576038?interpolation=lanczos-none&downsize=640:*" style="border: 0px; cursor: zoom-in; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 553px;" /></div>
<figcaption class="fig-cap" id="nointelliTXT" style="border: 1px solid rgb(211, 211, 211); color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; padding: 10px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="fig-desc" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 8px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Observations show that Jupiter's upper atmosphere — above the Great Red Spot — is hundreds of degrees hotter than anywhere else on the planet.</div>
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<b>Previous heat-distribution models suggested that Jupiter's atmosphere should be much cooler, largely because the planet is about fives times further from the <span class="vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: nowrap;"><span class="vm-hook" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0 , 153 , 0); border-style: none none solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #009900; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">sun</span><span class="vm-hook-icon" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; height: 10px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 3px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 10px;"></span></span> than Earth is. So, having ruled out solar heating from above, the authors of the new research found evidence suggesting this atmospheric heating is largely driven by a combination of gravity waves and acoustic waves generated by turbulences in the atmosphere below the Great Red Spot.</b> The new study was <a href="http://nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/nature18940" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #3366cc; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">published today</a> (July 27) in the journal Nature. </div>
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Atmospheric gravity waves — not to be mistaken for gravitational waves — occur when <a href="http://www.space.com/33479-venus-mountains-cause-weird-weather-patterns.html" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #3366cc; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">pockets of air collide with things like mountains.</a> The resulting effect is similar to when a pebble is dropped into a lake, and ripples then form on the surface of the water. </div>
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Acoustic waves, on the other hand, are sound waves, which means they develop from compressions and refractions in the air and travel upward into the atmosphere. There, they encounter regions of lower density and break, much like ocean waves breaking on the shore. When this happens, the acoustic waves release stored kinetic energy and cause molecules and atoms in the air to move around more, which then raises the temperature, O'Donoghue said. </div>
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"Changes in density around the Great Red Spot will shoot waves in all directions," O'Donoghue added. "We believe that <a href="http://www.space.com/3882-sound-waves-travel-sun-magnetic-field.html" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #3366cc; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">acoustic waves are the majority of the heating cause</a>, because gravity waves tend to ship their energy across the planet, rather than vertically up like acoustic waves." </div>
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<figure class="figure" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #5b5b5b; display: table; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.2rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 12px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 553px;"><div class="magnify-wrapper iZoom img-zoom-in" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<img alt="This illustration shows how a combination of gravity and acoustic waves transfers heat above the Great Red Spot to Jupiter's upper atmosphere. " big-src="http://www.space.com/images/i/000/057/096/original/jupiter-atmospheric-waves.png?1469576130?interpolation=lanczos-none&downsize=*:1400" class="pure-img" src="http://www.space.com/images/i/000/057/096/i02/jupiter-atmospheric-waves.png?1469576130?interpolation=lanczos-none&downsize=640:*" style="border: 0px; cursor: zoom-in; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 553px;" /></div>
<figcaption class="fig-cap" id="nointelliTXT" style="border: 1px solid rgb(211, 211, 211); color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px; padding: 10px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="fig-desc" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 8px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
This illustration shows how a combination of gravity and acoustic waves transfers heat above the Great Red Spot to Jupiter's upper atmosphere.</div>
<cite class="fig-credit" style="border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 8px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Credit: Art by Karen Teramura, UH IfA, James O'Donoghue</cite></figcaption></figure><br />
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Storm-Enhanced Heating</h2>
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The GRS is a massive storm that rotates counterclockwise, colliding with the natural flow of molecules in the atmosphere, which are moving opposite the storm. These types of collisions create turbulence that creates acoustic and gravity waves, O'Donoghue said. </div>
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Using data from the SpeX <span class="vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: nowrap;"><span class="vm-hook" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0 , 153 , 0); border-style: none none solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #009900; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">instrument</span><span class="vm-hook-icon" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 10px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 3px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 10px;"></span></span> on the <a href="http://www.space.com/32271-subaru-telescope-tour-photos-gallery.html" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #3366cc; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF)</a> on Mauna Kea mountain in Hawaii, the researchers were able to measure the <span class="vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: nowrap;"><span class="vm-hook" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0 , 153 , 0); border-style: none none solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #009900; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">temperature</span><span class="vm-hook-icon" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 10px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 3px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 10px;"></span></span> of Jupiter's atmosphere, specifically around the GRS. </div>
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"The Great Red Spot is the largest storm in the solar system — it is bigger than Earth itself — so it generates a lot of turbulence that impedes the flow of air in the atmosphere," O'Donoghue said. "It is kind of like when you stir a cup of coffee and you turn the spoon around and go the opposite way. Suddenly, there is a lot of sloshing [turbulence] going on that generates sound waves, or compressions of air, upwards for you to hear." </div>
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The heat generated from the acoustic and gravity waves has a localized effect, which suggests there is a coupling between low and high altitudes, as energy is transferred from the lower atmosphere to the upper atmosphere. Previously, the connection between low and high altitudes was thought to be pretty much impossible because the distance is so vast, O'Donoghue explained.</div>
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<b>"This new result from Jupiter provides the first evidence of upward coupling of energy that finds its way from the lower atmosphere to the upper atmosphere," Michael Mendillo, a professor of astronomy at BU, who was not involved with the study, told Space.com. "It's a very interesting observation — even on Earth, this mechanism is not well-studied or understood. If this happens on Jupiter, it is possible that it happens on all planets." </b></div>
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<b>Giant planets like Jupiter are measured to be hundreds of degrees warmer than current <span class="vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: nowrap;"><span class="vm-hook" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0 , 153 , 0); border-style: none none solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #009900; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">temperature</span><span class="vm-hook-icon" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; height: 10px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 3px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 10px;"></span></span> models predict. Before now, the extremely warm temperatures observed in Jupiter's atmosphere have been difficult to explain, due to the lack of a known heat source</b>, Tom Stallard, co-author of the new study and an associate professor of astronomy at the University of Leicester in the United Kingdom, told Space.com. </div>
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"Sometimes, ironically, it is easier to see these <span class="vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: nowrap;"><span class="vm-hook" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0 , 153 , 0); border-style: none none solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #009900; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">features</span><span class="vm-hook-icon" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 10px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 3px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 10px;"></span></span> on a planet far away [from Earth]," said Stallar, who advised O'Donoghue throughout his research. In other words, "It's much more difficult to step back and see these broadscale effects … on Earth, so <b>it's interesting to use Jupiter as a 'proxy' for what might be happening on other planets, and that includes Earth."</b></div>
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With the <a href="http://www.space.com/33406-juno-jupiter-orbit-first-photo.html" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #3366cc; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Juno spacecraft orbiting Jupiter</a>, the researchers hope to get an up-close view of the Great Red Spot and isolate where the heat observed in the planet's upper atmosphere comes from. They also plan to study the fine details of smaller storms like Red Spot Jr., to see if there is heating above them as well. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-46000161871679872262016-07-06T21:38:00.000-07:002016-08-01T11:03:54.771-07:00Inconvenient Truth: Most scientists are lousy statisticians; AAAS says "'Misunderstanding and misuse of statistical significance impedes science"A important article published in the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) journal <i>Science</i> (June 2, 2016) addresses a very long-standing problem pervasive in virtually all areas of science: statistical and scientific reasoning are often not aligned, and the "misunderstanding and misuse of statistical significance [by scientists] impedes science," according to the AAAS.<br />
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The fact is that most scientists have a rudimentary understanding of statistics, typically obtained from a few undergraduate courses in statistics taken en route to a scientific career, yet statistics underpins the critical determination of "statistical significance" of scientific data and the validity of scientific conclusions. Most scientists do not consult statisticians to validate and confirm their statistical conclusions, which inenviably leads to false assumptions and conclusions based upon such simplistic analyses. My own field of science suffers from over-reliance on p-values, arbitrarily considering data with a p-value of < 0.05 to be "statistically significant" or "true," vs. data with a p-value of > 0.05 to be "insignificant" or "false," and thus likely un-publishable. A 'skilled' scientist knows well how to play the game of torturing the data, throwing out outliers, adding assumptions, etc. to lower the p-value to a publishable and "true" "statistically significant" 0.05 or less.<br />
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A prominent example is Michael Mann's infamous "hockey stick" global temperature reconstruction, arguably the most <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjozr3IvuDNAhVG5mMKHS5KDeMQFggqMAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fclimateaudit.org%2F2007%2F11%2F06%2Fthe-wegman-and-north-reports-for-newbies%2F&usg=AFQjCNHItYP-2COJH8tmuCudJvOeclrPrw&sig2=7U7ycvU8aknICfyd2WNFvg&bvm=bv.126130881,d.cGc">widely</a> <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjozr3IvuDNAhVG5mMKHS5KDeMQFgg6MAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fa-sceptical-mind.com%2Fthe-rise-and-fall-of-the-hockey-stick&usg=AFQjCNGm5ot8PUZH57LsppcsSlv-NygVIA&sig2=9GwZJNfR1Te7MfA1WmRR9Q&bvm=bv.126130881,d.cGc">debunked</a> <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjozr3IvuDNAhVG5mMKHS5KDeMQFghNMAc&url=http%3A%2F%2Fhockeyschtick.blogspot.com%2F2011%2F03%2Fthere-he-goes-again-mann-claims-his.html&usg=AFQjCNH6-OxmKBSuD3zvjSqPgqHsofF9vA&sig2=enuag6j8O2fh3rerenF2GA&bvm=bv.126130881,d.cGc">piece of research in the history of science</a>, debunked by both the Republican statistical experts (Wegman et al) and Democrat statistical experts (North et al). Both Congressional statistical expert evaluations of Mann's hockey stick, in addition to numerous gross statistical errors, faulted Mann for not consulting any statisticians prior to publication of his paper.<br />
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Sadly, the article admits that arbitrary assumptions of "statistically significant p-values," which vary widely between different scientific fields, are widely misused and misunderstood by scientists and are "out of alignment" with current statistical reasoning, concluding, "let us hope that the next century will see much progress in the inferential methods of science as in it's substance."<br />
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Related: Is much of climate science useless?</div>
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https://judithcurry.com/2016/07/06/is-much-of-current-climate-research-useless/</div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-16515816511995119902016-06-15T10:28:00.001-07:002016-06-16T11:57:23.067-07:00New paper demonstrates the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect on Jupiter is due to pressure, not greenhouse gases<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A paper published in <i>Science</i> June 3, 2016, <i><a href="http://www.sciencemagazinedigital.org/sciencemagazine/03_june_2016_Main/Print_submit.action?articleTitle=&articlePrintMode=false&start=88&end=91&prettyPrint=false&lm=1464885951000">Peering through Jupiter's clouds with Radio Spectral Imaging,</a> </i>demonstrates the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect on Jupiter and that atmospheric temperatures are a function of pressure, independent of greenhouse gas concentrations. Jupiter is a gaseous planet with an atmosphere comprised almost entirely of the non-greenhouse gases hydrogen and helium, <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/10/jupiter-emits-67-more-radiation-than-it.html">yet is capable of generating 67% more radiation than it receives from the Sun</a>, and has estimated temperatures at the Jovian core of more than 20,000</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">C, more than three times as hot as the surface of the Sun. Jupiter, however, only receives 3.6% as much solar radiation per meter squared as the Earth. </span><a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/10/jupiter-emits-67-more-radiation-than-it.html" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">The only possible explanation for this "temperature enhancement" or "greenhouse effect" is atmospheric mass/pressure/gravity (the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> of </span><a href="https://www.google.com/#q=site:hockeyschtick.blogspot.com+maxwell" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Maxwell</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">/Poisson/Clausius et al), and which is entirely independent of greenhouse gas concentrations. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/08/new-paper-confirms-gravito-thermal.html">Prior work has confirmed the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect on <strike>6</strike> 8 planets including Earth, and why this falsifies the theory of catastrophic man-made global warming.</a> On the basis of this new paper, we find the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect also holds for Jupiter and that the pressure vs. temperature curve satisfies the <a href="https://www.google.com/#q=site:hockeyschtick.blogspot.com+poisson"><i>Poisson Relation </i>of the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect.</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Referring to fig. 1 of the paper, we find at 0.1 bar pressure on Jupiter, the corresponding temperature is</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">~112</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">K, and at 11 bars pressure corresponds to 400</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">K or 260</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">F:</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5iCFayefHyHHHzXFZZ8he6Kb5cM2JczCgcnuou24mRMSPGQNN7DXeij9hSZQvNDjaBJ2v393e83Yjg_dzLw65_a4oa3HmGWMZ0S_h0XRb6TBKPJw5fLrKORIneH0_YzhiZVnbbIIZWkw/s1600/jupiter.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="393" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5iCFayefHyHHHzXFZZ8he6Kb5cM2JczCgcnuou24mRMSPGQNN7DXeij9hSZQvNDjaBJ2v393e83Yjg_dzLw65_a4oa3HmGWMZ0S_h0XRb6TBKPJw5fLrKORIneH0_YzhiZVnbbIIZWkw/s400/jupiter.png" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Fig 1 from the paper. The dotted line is the atmospheric temperature vs. pressure curve on Jupiter. At 11 bars pressure, the temperature is 400</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small; text-align: left;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">K or 127</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small; text-align: left;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">C or 260</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small; text-align: left;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">F. </span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This satisfies the <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/05/maxwell-established-that-gravity.html">Poisson Relation (which in turn is derived from the Ideal Gas Law) previously demonstrated on <strike>6</strike> 8 other celestial bodies in our solar system:</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">T/To = (P/Po)^0.286 ~= 400</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small; text-align: left;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">K/112</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small; text-align: left;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">K = (11 bar/0.1 bar)^.286</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">and once again demonstrates that the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) theory is a myth, <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/05/maxwell-established-that-gravity.html">that atmospheric temperatures are controlled by mass/gravity/pressure and are independent of greenhouse gas concentrations on any of these 9 planets with atmospheres, including Earth.</a> Adding additional CO2 plant food to the atmosphere will undoubtedly green the Earth, but Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 is effectively zero. </span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px;"><div style="font-size: 13px;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #5c5c5c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "lucida sans unicode" , "microsoft sans serif" , "segoe ui symbol" , "stixgeneral" , "cambria math" , "arial unicode ms" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.2399997711182px;">Fig. 7. </span></div>
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<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">a) </em> <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/08/new-paper-confirms-gravito-thermal.html">Dry adiabatic response of the air/surface temperature ratio to pressure changes in the free atmosphere according</a> to <b><a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/05/maxwell-established-that-gravity.html">Poisson’s formula</a>.</b> The reference pressure is arbitrarily assumed to be <span class="mathmlsrc" id="mmlsi180" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="formulatext stixSupport mathImg" data-mathurl="/science?_ob=MathURL&_method=retrieve&_eid=1-s2.0-S0273117715005712&_mathId=si180.gif&_user=111111111&_pii=S0273117715005712&_rdoc=1&_issn=02731177&md5=65755acf14d8b01a9f8a7748616daef2" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-size: 1.1em; letter-spacing: 0.1em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Click to view the MathML source">p<sub style="border: 0px; font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">o</sub>=100</span><span class="mathContainer hidden" style="border: 0px; display: inline-block; height: 0px; margin: 0px; opacity: 0; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 0px; zoom: 1;"><span class="mathCode" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; opacity: 0; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; zoom: 1;"><math altimg="si180.gif" overflow="scroll"><mrow><msub><mrow><mi></mi></mrow><mrow><mi></mi></mrow></msub><mo></mo><mn></mn></mrow></math></span></span></span> kPa;<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">b</em>) The SB radiation law expressed as a response of a blackbody temperature ratio to variation in photon pressure (see text for details).</div>
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<a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image26.png" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #743399; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="image" border="0" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb25.png?w=644&h=460" height="285" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; background-color: transparent; background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; display: inline; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="image" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/05/maxwell-established-that-gravity.html"><strong style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 5</strong>. Atmospheric near-surface Thermal Enhancement (<em style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">N</em><span style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; top: 0.5ex; vertical-align: baseline;">TE</span>) as a function of mean total surface pressure (<em style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">P</em><span style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; top: 0.5ex; vertical-align: baseline;">s</span>) for 8 celestial bodies listed in Table 1. </a>See Eq. (7) for the exact mathematical formula. Source: <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/29/unified-theory-of-climate/" style="color: #7a7a7a; text-decoration: none;">Nikolov & Zeller</a></span></div>
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<a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image27.png" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #743399; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img alt="image" border="0" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb26.png?w=644&h=474" height="294" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; background-color: transparent; background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; display: inline; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="image" width="400" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><strong style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 6. </strong>Temperature/potential temperature ratio as a function of atmospheric pressure according to the Poisson formula based on the Gas Law (<em style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">P</em><span style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; top: 0.5ex; vertical-align: baseline;">o</span> = 100 kPa.). Note the striking similarity in shape with the curve in Fig. 5.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjIBnIvx7A9-VRkxjZvHNRDKi85zZKXdhZjSwV9U1xxenJP2ba6nTqftHVh1PYr62kiW-Cuedm02xRbsoxAye83ehWp975UDW0FsSVjAdl_W6-qN3Q72tYWx1nnljJ6I9qN_rpKEJDpk4/s1600/jupiter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjIBnIvx7A9-VRkxjZvHNRDKi85zZKXdhZjSwV9U1xxenJP2ba6nTqftHVh1PYr62kiW-Cuedm02xRbsoxAye83ehWp975UDW0FsSVjAdl_W6-qN3Q72tYWx1nnljJ6I9qN_rpKEJDpk4/s640/jupiter.jpg" width="480" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Related: </span><a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/11/how-can-uranus-have-storms-hot-enough.html" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">How can Uranus have storms hot enough to melt steel? A runaway greenhouse effect?</span></a></div>
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<h1>
<a href="http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/jupiterfact.html">NASA Jupiter Fact Sheet</a></h1>
</center>
<hr width="50%" />
<a href="http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/image/jupiter.jpg"><img alt="Jupiter" src="http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/banner/jupiter.gif" /></a><br />
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<h2>
Jupiter/Earth Comparison</h2>
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<h3>
Bulk parameters</h3>
<pre> Jupiter Earth Ratio (Jupiter/Earth)
Mass (10<sup>24</sup> kg) 1,898.19 5.9724 317.83
Volume (10<sup>10</sup> km<sup>3</sup>) 143,128 108.321 1321.33
Radius (1 bar level) (km)
Equatorial 71,492 6,378.1 11.209
Polar 66,854 6,356.8 10.517
Volumetric mean radius (km) 69,911 6,371.0 10.973
Ellipticity 0.06487 0.00335 19.36
Mean density (kg/m<sup>3</sup>) 1,326 5,514 0.240
Gravity (eq., 1 bar) (m/s<sup>2</sup>) 24.79 9.80 2.530
Acceleration (eq., 1 bar) (m/s<sup>2</sup>) 23.12 9.78 2.364
Escape velocity (km/s) 59.5 11.19 5.32
GM (x 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>3</sup>/s<sup>2</sup>) 126.687 0.39860 317.83
Bond albedo 0.343 0.306 1.12
Visual geometric albedo 0.52 0.367 1.42
Visual magnitude V(1,0) -9.40 -3.86 -
<b>Solar irradiance (W/m<sup>2</sup>) 50.26 1361.0 0.037
Black-body temperature (K) 109.9 254.0 0.433</b>
Moment of inertia (I/MR<sup>2</sup>) 0.254 0.3308 0.768
J<sub>2</sub> (x 10<sup>-6</sup>) 14,736 1082.63 13.611
Number of natural satellites 67 1
Planetary ring system Yes No
</pre>
<hr />
<h3>
Orbital parameters</h3>
<pre> Jupiter Earth Ratio (Jupiter/Earth)
Semimajor axis (10<sup>6</sup> km) 778.57 149.60 5.204
Sidereal orbit period (days) 4,332.589 365.256 11.862
Tropical orbit period (days) 4,330.595 365.242 11.857
Perihelion (10<sup>6</sup> km) 740.52 147.09 5.034
Aphelion (10<sup>6</sup> km) 816.62 152.10 5.369
Synodic period (days) 398.88 - -
Mean orbital velocity (km/s) 13.06 29.78 0.439
Max. orbital velocity (km/s) 13.72 30.29 0.453
Min. orbital velocity (km/s) 12.44 29.29 0.425
Orbit inclination (deg) 1.304 0.000 -
Orbit eccentricity 0.0489 0.0167 2.928
Sidereal rotation period (hours) 9.9250* 23.9345 0.415
Length of day (hrs) 9.9259 24.0000 0.414
Obliquity to orbit (deg) 3.13 23.44 0.134
Inclination of equator (deg) 3.13 23.44 0.134
</pre>
* System III (1965.0) coordinates<br />
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<h3>
</h3>
<h3>
Jovian Atmosphere</h3>
<pre><b>Surface Pressure: >>1000 bars
Temperature at 1 bar: 165 K (-108 C)
Temperature at 0.1 bar: 112 K (-161 C)</b>
Density at 1 bar: 0.16 kg/m<sup>3</sup>
Wind speeds
Up to 150 m/s<30 40="" degrees="" latitude="" m="" s="" to="" up="">
Scale height: 27 km
Mean molecular weight: 2.22
Atmospheric composition (by volume, uncertainty in parentheses)
Major: Molecular hydrogen (H<sub>2</sub>) - 89.8% (2.0%); Helium (He) - 10.2% (2.0%)
Minor (ppm): Methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) - 3000 (1000); Ammonia (NH<sub>3</sub>) - 260 (40);
Hydrogen Deuteride (HD) - 28 (10); Ethane (C<sub>2</sub>H<sub>6</sub>) - 5.8 (1.5);
Water (H<sub>2</sub>O) - 4 (varies with pressure)
Aerosols: Ammonia ice, water ice, ammonia hydrosulfide</30></pre>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-17497800298437255132016-06-05T15:21:00.003-07:002016-06-05T15:28:30.221-07:00How the West got healthy and prosperous<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>How can it be that – after countless millennia of malnutrition, disease, wretched poverty and early death – so many mostly western nations became healthy and prosperous in just 200 years? Matt Ridley says “ideas started having sex.” Deidre McCloskey opines that equality of social dignity and before the law emboldened people to invest, invent and take risks. Both are absolutely true.</i></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>However, as I discuss in this week’s article, a number of other essential factors also played key roles: foremost among them the scientific method and abundant, reliable, affordable energy, primarily from fossil fuels. The results were astounding – so much so that today the big question is, How have so many governments succeeded in preventing prosperity from happening?</i></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>Thank you for posting my informative and entertaining article, quoting from it, and forwarding it to your friends and colleagues.</i></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>Best regards,</i></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>Paul </i></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> <b><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="p3">
<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">How the West got healthy and prosperous</span></b></span></div>
<div class="p3">
<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>Vital ingredients included the scientific method and fossil fuels – truths we forget at our peril</i></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">By Paul Driessen</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Several years ago, physician, statistician, sword swallower and vibrant lecturer Hans Rosling produced a fascinating <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo"><span class="s2">4-minute video</span></a> that presented 120,000 data points and showcased how mostly western nations became healthy and prosperous in just 200 years – after countless millennia of malnutrition, disease, wretched poverty and early death.</span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">More recently, professor of history and economics Deidre McCloskey provided some clues as to why and how this happened. In a <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-west-and-the-rest-got-rich-1463754427"><span class="s2"><i>Wall Street Journal</i> article</span></a> outlining “how the West (and the rest) got rich,” she notes that it wasn’t just Karl Marx’s “exploited workers” or Adam Smith’s “virtuously saved capital, nor was it only Hernando DeSoto and Douglas North’s essential property rights and other legal institutions.</span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Perhaps the most vital ingredient was that over those two centuries “ideas started having sex,” as author Matt Ridley described the process in <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rational-Optimist-Prosperity-Evolves-P-S/dp/0061452068/ref=sr_1_1_twi_pap_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1464806052&sr=1-1&keywords=ridley+rational+optimist"><span class="s2"><i>The Rational Optimist</i></span></a>. It enabled innovators to make discoveries and devise technological wonders, often through coincidental <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Connections-James-Burke/dp/0743299558/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1464806481&sr=1-1&keywords=james+burke+connections"><span class="s2"><i>Connections</i></span></a> that historian James Burke found among seemingly unrelated earlier inventions, to bring us television, computers and other marvels.</span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Why did ideas suddenly start having sex? McCloskey asks. One reason was the printing press, which enabled more people to read and share ideas. However, she cites two other principal developments: liberty and equality. Liberated people are ingenious, she observes – free to pursue happiness, and ideas; free to try and fail, and try again; free to pursue their own self-interests, and thereby better mankind.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Equality of social dignity and before the law emboldened people to invest, invent and take risks. Once accidents of parentage, titles, inherited wealth or formal education no longer controlled destinies or opportunities, the innate inspiration, perspiration and perseverance of a Franklin, Bell, Edison, Wright, Kettering, Steinmetz, Ford, Benz, Borlaug and countless others could be unleashed.</span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">“Supposedly inferior races and classes and ethnicities proved not to be so,” McCloskey says. “Ordinary men and women didn’t need to be directed from above and, when honored and left alone, became immensely creative.” That’s an important message in the splendid British television series <i>Downton Abbey</i>, as well: when societal restrictions are relaxed, many can rise to new callings and heights.</span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Many other factors played key roles in this incredible progress. Two are especially important.</span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><i>The scientific method</i></b> begins with an hypothesis about how some component of the natural world works, and a calculation or forecast of what would happen if the concept is correct. Scientists then subject the hypothesis and prediction to experiment. If confirmed by data and observations, we have a new theory or law of nature; if not, the hypothesis is wrong.</span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This process brought wondrous advances – often through long, laborious tinkering and testing, and often amid heated, acrimonious debate about which hypothesis was correct (the miasma or germ theory of disease), which system was better (direct or alternating current), and countless other investigations.</span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><i>Abundant, reliable, affordable energy</i></b> – the vast majority of it fossil fuels – made all this and much more possible. It carried us from human and animal muscle, wood, dung and water wheels, to densely packed energy that could reliably power factories, laboratories, schools, hospitals, homes and offices. </span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Those fuels also run equipment that removes harmful pollutants from our air and water, and they ended our unsustainable reliance on whale oil, saving those magnificent mammals from extinction.</span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Today, coal, oil and natural gas still provide 80% of America’s and the world’s energy, for transportation, communication, refrigeration, heat, lights, manufacturing, entertainment and every other component of modern life. Together, the scientific method and industrial-grade energy enable our <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/5941.html"><span class="s2">Ultimate Resource</span></a> – the human mind – to create more new ideas, institutions and technologies that make life for poor people in wealthier countries better, healthier, fuller and longer than even royalty enjoyed a mere century ago.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Medical research discovered why people died from wounds; the true causes of malaria, smallpox, cholera and other diseases; antibiotics, vaccinations, insecticides and pharmaceuticals to combat disease and improve our overall well-being; anesthesia and surgical techniques that permit life-saving operations and organ transplants; sanitation (toilets, soap, trash removal) and water purification; and countless other advances that raised the average American’s life expectancy from 46 in 1900 to 76 today for men and 81 for women.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Internal combustion engines replaced horses for plows and transportation, and rid city streets of manure, urine and carcasses, while creating new problems that later generations toiled to address. Today we can travel the world in hours and ship produce, clothing and other products to the globe’s farthest corners.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Mechanized agriculture – coupled with modern fertilizers, hybrid and GMO seeds, drip irrigation and other advances – produce bumper crops that feed billions, using less land, water and insecticides.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Houses and other buildings are built better and stronger, to keep out the cold and heat and disease-carrying insects, better survive hurricanes and earthquakes, and connect their inhabitants with entertainment and information centers from all over the planet, and beyond.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Modern mining techniques and technologies find, extract and process the incredible variety of metals and other raw materials required to make the mechanized equipment and factories required to produce the energy we need and grow or make everything we eat, wear or use.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">If energy is the Master Resource that makes all of this possible, electricity is the king of modern energy. Imagine your life without electricity – generated by coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, wind or solar facilities, or batteries. Imagine life before electricity, or before the internet and cell phones put the fullness of human knowledge and entertainment instantly in the palm of your hand.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">At least one more factor helped to unleash this sudden surge of invention, progress, health and prosperity. A relatively new legal entity, the corporation, organized, harnessed and directed people, money and other resources toward common purposes. A growing private sector – free enterprises and entrepreneurs – put corporate and other ideas, labor and investors’ money on the line, assisted by evolving financial and investment systems and practices, while legal and government institutions provided the ethical and regulatory frameworks within which these entities are expected to operate. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Numerous “invisible hands” worked together across continents and oceans, often without even knowing their counterparts exist, to bring us products as simple as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYO3tOqDISE"><span class="s2">a pencil</span></a> or as complex as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8ZVHpgYAzs"><span class="s2">a cell phone</span></a>.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So we are left with a profound question. Amid all this health, prosperity and longevity for so many – why do so many still struggle on the edge of survival? Why do two billion still have minimal electricity and another 1.3 people still have none at all? Why do two billion still exist on $3 per day? Why do a half-million still die every year from malaria? five million more from respiratory and intestinal diseases?</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The formula for health and prosperity is no secret. It is readily available on your cell phone. Indeed, says Leon Louw, the real “economic miracle” today is not found in South Korea, Singapore or Botswana – but in North Korea, Venezuela and most of Africa.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What should fascinate us is <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1030569142449259915"><span class="s2">the miracle of<i> poverty</i></span></a> – the way inept, corrupt, greedy, centrally planned, hyper-regulated governments have <i>prevented prosperity from happening</i>. What should outrage us is that callous UN bodies, NGOs and activists have imposed their <a href="http://www.eco-imperialism.com/what-is-eco-imperialism/"><span class="s2">eco-imperialist agendas</span></a>, and <i>prevented</i> countries from acquiring the property rights and technologies that made so many nations healthy and rich.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What should concern us is that many forces are conspiring to roll back the free enterprise, free speech, scientific method, and reliable, affordable energy that make modern living standards possible. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Having them now does not guarantee them tomorrow. Failure to safeguard these essential foundations could take us on the path to joining the ranks of the “miracles of poverty” and FRCs: Formerly Rich Countries.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (<a href="http://www.cfact.org/"><span class="s3">www.CFACT.org</span></a>) and author of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Eco-Imperialism-Green-Power-Black-Death/dp/0939571234/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1433540490&sr=1-1&keywords=paul+driessen+%2B+eco+imperialism&pebp=1433540499327&perid=01JDAJ8XPWAV9VND8SDE"><span class="s3">Eco-Imperialism</span></a>: Green power - Black death.</i></span></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-13071334500658153752016-05-27T18:52:00.000-07:002016-05-27T18:53:03.804-07:00Dr. Willie Soon takes on Bill Nye, the Scientism Guy<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Bill Nye the Scientism Guy</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Facts don’t support his hypothesis, so he shouts louder, changes subjects and attacks his critics</span></i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">By Willie Soon and István Markó</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">True science requires that data, observations and other evidence support a hypothesis – and that it can withstand withering analysis and criticism – or the hypothesis is wrong.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">That’s why Albert Einstein once joked, “If the facts don’t fit your theory, change the facts.” When informed that scientists who rejected his theory of relativity had published a pamphlet, <i>100 authors against Einstein</i>, he replied: “Why 100? If I were wrong, one would be enough.”</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In the realm of climate scientism, the rule seems to be: If the facts don’t support your argument, talk louder, twist the facts, and insult your opponents. That’s certainly what self-styled global warming “experts” like Al Gore and <a href="http://www.mrctv.org/blog/bill-nye-whos-not-scientist-guy-wants-throw-manmade-climate-change-skeptics-slammer"><span class="s2">Bill Nye</span></a> are doing. Rather than debating scientists who don’t accept false claims that humans are causing dangerous climate change, they just proclaim more loudly:</span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>Our theory explains everything that’s happening. Hotter or colder temperatures, wetter or drier weather, less ice in the Arctic, more ice in Antarctica – it’s all due to fossil fuel use.</i></span></span></blockquote>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Climate scientism aggressively misrepresents facts, refuses to discuss energy and climate issues with anyone who points out massive flaws in the manmade climate chaos hypothesis, bullies anyone who won’t condemn carbon dioxide, and brands them as equivalent to Holocaust Deniers.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In a recent <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-nye/why-i-choose-to-challenge_b_10048224.html"><span class="s2">Huffington Post article</span></a>, Mr. Nye “challenges climate change deniers” by claiming, “The science of global warming is long settled, and one may wonder why the United States, nominally the most technologically advanced country in the world, is not the world leader in addressing the threats.” </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Perhaps it’s not so settled. When the Australian government recently shifted funds from studying climate change to addressing threats that might result, 275 research jobs were imperiled. The very scientists who’d been saying there was a 97% consensus howled that there really wasn’t one. Climate change is very complex, they cried (which is true), and much more work must be done if we are to provide more accurate temperature predictions, instead of wild forecasts based on CO2 emissions (also true).</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Perhaps Mr. Nye and these Australian researchers should discuss what factors other than carbon dioxide actually cause climate and weather fluctuations. They may also encounter other revelations: that climate science is still young and anything but settled; that we have little understanding of what caused major ice ages, little ice ages, warm periods in between and numerous other events throughout the ages; that computer model predictions thus far have been little better than tarot card divinations.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As for Nye’s assertions that “carbon dioxide has an enormous effect on planetary temperatures” and “climate change was discovered in recent times by comparing the Earth to the planet Venus” – those are truly bizarre, misleading, vacuous claims.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The relatively rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 over the last 30 years has produced only 0.2°C (0.4°F) of global warming – compared to a 1°C (1.8°F) total temperature increase over the past 150 years. That means the planetary temperature increase has <i>slowed down</i>, as carbon dioxide levels rose. In fact, average temperatures have barely budged for nearly 19 years, an inconvenient reality that even the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) now recognizes.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This is an “enormous effect”? By now, it is increasingly clear, the proper scientific conclusion is that the “greenhouse effect” of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide is very minor – as a <a href="http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/12/what-do-we-know-about-co2-and-global-atmospheric-temperatures/"><span class="s2">recent article</span></a> explains. Mr. Nye and his fans and fellow activists could learn a lot from it.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Objective readers, and even Mr. Nye, would also profit from reading a rather <a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/10/bill-nye-thescienceguy-and-al-gore-not-even-wrong-on-co2-climate-101-experiment-accoding-to-paper-published-in-aip-journal/"><span class="s2">devastating critique</span></a> of one of The Scientism Guy’s “science-is-easy” demonstrations. It concludes that the greenhouse effect of CO2 molecules is of course real, but Mr. Nye’s clever experiment for Al Gore’s “Climate Reality Project” was the result of “video fakery” and “could never work” as advertised. When will Messrs. Nye and Gore stop peddling their Hollywood special effects?</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For that matter, when will they stop playing inter-planetary games? Mr. Nye and the popular media love to tell us that carbon dioxide from oil, gas and coal could soon turn Planet Earth into another Venus: over-heated, barren, rocky and lifeless. Princeton Institute of Advanced Study Professors Freeman Dyson and Will Happer show that this is utter nonsense.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For one thing, Venus is far closer to the sun, so it is subjected to far more solar heat, gravitational pull and surface pressure than Earth is. “If we put a sunshade shielding Venus from sunlight,” Dr. Dyson notes, “it would only take 500 years for its surface to cool down and its atmosphere to condense into a carbon dioxide ocean.” It’s not the high temperature that makes Venus permanently unfriendly to life, he adds; it’s the lack of water.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Second, the amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide are grossly disproportionate. Earth has barely 0.04% carbon dioxide (by volume) in its atmosphere, whereas Venus has 97% and Mars has 95% CO2. Mars much greater distance from the sun also means it has an average surface temperature of -60°C (-80°F) –underscoring yet again how absurd it is to use planetary comparisons to stoke climate change fears.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Third, Earth’s atmosphere used to contain far more carbon dioxide. “For most of the past 550 million years of the Phanerozoic, when multicellular life left a good fossil record, the earth’s CO2 levels were four times, even ten times, higher than now,” Dr. Happer points out. “Yet life flourished on land and in the oceans. Earth never came close to the conditions of Venus.” And it never will.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span class="s1">Fourth, Venus’s much closer proximity to the sun means it receives about twice as much solar flux (radiant energy) as the Earth does: 2637 Watts per square meter versus 1367, Happer explains. The IPCC says doubling atmospheric CO</span><span class="s3"><sub>2</sub></span><span class="s1"> concentrations would be equivalent to just 15 W/m</span><span class="s3"><sup>2</sup></span><span class="s1"> of additional solar flux. That’s nearly 100 times less than what Venus gets from being closer to the Sun.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Fifth, surface pressure on Venus is about 90 times that of the Earth, and strong convection forces increase the heating of surface air, he continues, making Venus’s surface even hotter. However, dense sulfuric acid clouds prevent most solar heat from ever reaching the planet’s surface. Instead, they reflect most sunlight back into space, which is “one of the reasons Venus is such a lovely morning or evening ‘star.’” </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Of course, none of these nerdy details about Earth-Venus differences really matter. We already know plant life on Planet Earth loved the higher CO2 levels that prevailed during the Carboniferous Age and other times when plants enjoyed extraordinary growth.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span class="s1">However, even burning all the economically available fossil fuels would not likely even double current atmospheric CO</span><span class="s3"><sub>2</sub></span><span class="s1"> levels – to just 0.08% carbon dioxide, compared to 21% oxygen, 78% nitrogen, 0.9% argon and 0.1% for all other gases except water vapor. And doubling CO</span><span class="s3"><sub>2</sub></span><span class="s1"> would get us away from the near-famine levels for plants that have prevailed for the past tens of millions of years.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Carbon dioxide is absolutely essential for plant growth – and for all life on Earth. <a href="https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Full-Report.pdf"><span class="s2">Volumes of research</span></a> clearly demonstrate that crop, garden, forest, grassland and ocean <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Miracle-Molecule-Carbon-Dioxide-Life-ebook/dp/B00Q3GWZTE"><span class="s2">plants want more CO2</span></a>, not less. The increased greening of our Earth over the past 30 years testifies to the desperate need of plants for this most fundamental fertilizer. The more CO2 they get, the better and faster they grow.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">More than 70% of the oxygen present in the atmosphere – and without which we could never live – originates from phytoplankton absorbing carbon dioxide and releasing oxygen. Keep this in mind when Bill Nye The Junk Science Guy tells you carbon dioxide is bad for our oceans and climate. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>Dr. Willie Soon is an independent scientist who has been studying the Sun and Earth’s climate for 26 years. Dr. István Markó is a professor of chemistry at the Université Catholique de Louvain in Belgium and director of the Organic and Medicinal Chemistry Laboratory.</i></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUpaIrutSzWKQVsGK01c0mQWGwJJiZU602AJsvYPMXUU2iyYjRm0pXfWLPo8HbjZ4V2Q6MbMrbKpT-7v4NDoJ5Pw5Vx-pu8QeHyo1yGJR4dFVKirxvBKIeN9c1B0eq8S5eJfGk0Cq7Reg/s1600/image001.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUpaIrutSzWKQVsGK01c0mQWGwJJiZU602AJsvYPMXUU2iyYjRm0pXfWLPo8HbjZ4V2Q6MbMrbKpT-7v4NDoJ5Pw5Vx-pu8QeHyo1yGJR4dFVKirxvBKIeN9c1B0eq8S5eJfGk0Cq7Reg/s400/image001.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>Bill Nye, the mechanical engineer turned scientism celebrity guy who likes to pretend he’s a real scientist.</i></span></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-19416150153599713282015-12-14T14:19:00.003-08:002015-12-14T14:19:35.378-08:00WSJ: 'Paris Climate of Conformity: It pays to be skeptical of politicians who claim to be saving the planet'<h1 class="wsj-article-headline" itemprop="headline" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-size: 40px; line-height: 1.2em; margin: 0px 0px 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/paris-climate-of-conformity-1450048095?mod=rss_opinion_main&cb=logged0.7392249614931643"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Paris Climate of Conformity</span></a></h1>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It pays to be skeptical of politicians who claim to be saving the planet.</span></h2>
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<time class="timestamp" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #666666; display: block; font-size: 13px; line-height: 2.2rem; margin: 0px 0px 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Dec. 13, 2015 6:08 p.m. ET THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</span></time><div class="comments-count-container" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; display: inline-block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px; top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a class="comments_header" href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/paris-climate-of-conformity-1450048095?mod=rss_opinion_main&cb=logged0.7392249614931643#livefyre-comment" rel="nofollow" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 700; line-height: 2.2rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="comments_count_icon" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url("data:image/png; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 14px 14px; border: 0px; float: left; font-weight: 400; height: 14px; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 14px;"></span>669 COMMENTS</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The moment to be wariest of political enthusiasms is precisely when elite opinion is all lined up on one side. So it is with the weekend agreement out of Paris on climate policy, which President Obama declared with his familiar modesty “can be a turning point for the world” and is “the best chance we have to save the one planet that we’ve got.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Forgive us for looking through the legacy smoke, but if climate change really does imperil the Earth, and we doubt it does, nothing coming out of a gaggle of governments and the United Nations will save it. What will help is human invention and the entrepreneurial spirit. To the extent the Paris accord increases political control over human and natural resources, it will make the world poorer and technological progress less likely.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The climate confab’s self-described political success is rooted in a conceit and a bribe. The conceit is that the terms of the agreement will have some tangible impact on global temperatures. The big breakthrough is supposed to be that for the first time developing and developed countries have committed to reducing carbon emissions. But the commitments by these nations are voluntary with no enforcement mechanism.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">China (the No. 1 CO2 emitter) and India (No. 3 after the U.S.) have made commitments that they may or may not honor, depending on whether they can meet them without interfering with economic growth. If the choice is lifting millions out of poverty or reducing CO2, poverty reduction will prevail—as it should.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Editorial Page Editor Paul Gigot on the agreement reached at the U.N. climate summit and President Obama’s political calculations. Photo credit: Gett Images.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">No less than the supposedly true global-warming believers of Europe are also happy about voluntary commitments because Paris liberates them from the binding targets of the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. Germany’s high energy costs in particular have been driving companies offshore thanks to its renewable energy costs and mandates.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But no one is happier than President Obama, who would have to submit a binding treaty to the Senate for ratification. As we have learned from the Iran nuclear deal and so much else, Mr. Obama is not into winning democratic consent for his policy dreams. Mr. Obama plans to use Paris as a stick to beat Republicans even as he ducks a vote in Congress. We doubt the Paris climate deal would get 40 Senate votes once Democrats in Ohio, Colorado or North Dakota were forced to debate the costs.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mr. Obama’s U.S. CO2-reduction targets are fanciful in any case, short of a major technological breakthrough. The President promises that the U.S. will reduce carbon emissions by 26% to 28% from 2005 levels by 2025, but the specific means he has proposed to get there would only yield about half that. And that’s assuming none of Mr. Obama’s unilateral regulatory policies are declared illegal by U.S. courts.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As for the bribe, rich countries in Paris bought the cooperation of the developing world by promising to send $100 billion a year in climate aid. So the governments of the West are now going to dun their taxpayers to transfer money to the clean and green governments run by the likes of Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe. We can’t wait to see New York’s Chuck Schumer make the case on the Senate floor for American aid to China so it can become more energy efficient and economically competitive.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Even if a Democratic Congress made these bribes politically possible, they would do little to ease the consequences of climate change. The world’s poor can best cope with climate harm if they are richer, which requires faster economic growth. Yet everything we know about economic development is that foreign aid retards growth when it expands the reach of Third World governments. Poor countries won’t be helped by subsidies for solar cells delivered through the World Bank.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The same lesson goes for the developed world, by the way. We still recall the <a href="http://topics.wsj.com/person/B/George-W.%20Bush/5369" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">George W. Bush</a> economic adviser who told us in 2006 that subsidies for cellulosic ethanol were justified because a breakthrough was “just around the corner.” He said the problem was that Congress’s research grants were distorted by political earmarks.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Of course they were. Congress took Mr. Bush’s invitation and force-fed ethanol mandates into law despite the lack of available technology to meet them. A decade later cellulosic ethanol is still around the corner.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Which brings us to the development on the fringes of Paris that might do some good. <a href="http://topics.wsj.com/person/G/Bill-Gates/685" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Bill Gates</a> is hitting up his fellow billionaires to pay for research into energy alternatives to fossil fuels. This is a tacit admission that the technology doesn’t exist to make alternatives cost-effective no matter how many subsidies governments offer. If carbon energy’s efficiency and wealth creation are going to be displaced, the world will need advances in battery storage and nuclear energy, among other things.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The grandiose claims of triumph in Paris represent the self-interest of a political elite that wants more control over the private economy in the U.S. and around the world. These are the last people who will save the planet.</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-4541131380499552532015-12-01T09:38:00.002-08:002015-12-01T09:38:39.845-08:00The Left's Imaginary Enemy of Climate Change<header class="article_header module" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px 10px 6px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="zonedModule" data-module-id="10" data-module-name="article.app/lib/module/articleHeadline" data-module-zone="article_header" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
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<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/liberalisms-imaginary-enemies-1448929043?mod=rss_opinion_main&cb=logged0.23397413454949856">Liberalism’s Imaginary Enemies</a></h1>
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In Paris, it’s easier to battle a climate crisis than confront jihadists on the streets.</h2>
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<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/liberalisms-imaginary-enemies-1448929043?mod=rss_opinion_main&cb=logged0.23397413454949856" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="76px" src="http://s.wsj.net/img/renocol_BretStephens.gif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; display: block; height: 60px; margin: -1px 0px 0px -1px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 60px;" width="76px" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #666666; display: inline-block; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By</span> <div class="author mobile-scrim hasMenu" data-scrim="{"type":"author","header":"Bret Stephens","subhead":"The Wall Street Journal","list":[{"type":"link","icon":"bio","url":"http://topics.wsj.com/person/A/biography/5463","text":"Biography"},{"type":"link","icon":"twitter","url":"http://twitter.com/StephensWSJ","text":"@StephensWSJ"},{"type":"link","icon":"email","url":"mailto:Bret.Stephens@wsj.com","text":"Bret.Stephens@wsj.com"}]}" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #666666; display: inline-block; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
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Little children have imaginary friends. Modern liberalism has imaginary enemies.</div>
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Hunger in America is an imaginary enemy. Liberal <a class="icon none" href="https://www.nokidhungry.org/problem/hunger-facts" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 30px 30px; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">advocacy </a>groups routinely claim that one in seven Americans is hungry—in a country where the poorest counties have the <a class="icon none" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3198075/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 30px 30px; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">highest rates </a>of obesity. The statistic is a preposterous extrapolation from a dubious Agriculture Department measure of “food insecurity.” But the line gives those advocacy groups a reason to exist while feeding the liberal narrative of America as a savage society of haves and have nots.</div>
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The campus-rape epidemic—in which <a class="icon none" href="http://www.slate.com/articles/life/inside_higher_ed/2015/09/support_for_one_in_five_campus_sexual_assault_statistic_spurs_college_action.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 30px 30px; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">one in five</a> female college students is said to be the victim of sexual assault—is an imaginary enemy. Never mind the debunked rape scandals at Duke and the University of Virginia, or the <a class="icon none" href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/doublex/2015/06/the_hunting_ground_a_closer_look_at_the_influential_documentary_reveals.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 30px 30px; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">soon-to-be-debunked</a> case at the heart of “The Hunting Ground,” a documentary about an alleged sexual assault at Harvard Law School. The real question is: If modern campuses were really zones of mass predation—Congo on the quad—why would intelligent young women even think of attending a coeducational school? They do because there is no epidemic. But the campus-rape narrative sustains liberal fictions of a never-ending war on women.</div>
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Editorial Page Editor Paul Gigot on what to expect as global leaders meet to talk climate change. Photo credit: Getty Images.</div>
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Institutionalized racism is an imaginary enemy. Somehow we’re supposed to believe that the same college administrators who have made a religion of diversity are really the second coming of Strom Thurmond. Somehow we’re supposed to believe that twice electing a black president is evidence of our racial incorrigibility. We’re supposed to believe this anyway because the future of liberal racialism—from affirmative action to diversity quotas to slavery reparations—requires periodic sightings of the ghosts of a racist past.</div>
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I mention these examples by way of preface to the climate-change summit that began this week in Paris. But first notice a pattern.</div>
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Dramatic crises—for which evidence tends to be anecdotal, subjective, invisible, tendentious and sometimes fabricated—are trumpeted on the basis of incompetently designed studies, poorly understood statistics, or semantic legerdemain. Food insecurity is not remotely the same as hunger. An abusive cop does not equal a bigoted police department. An unwanted kiss or touch is not the same as sexual assault, at least if the word assault is to mean anything.</div>
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Yet bogus studies and statistics survive because the cottage industries of compassion need them to be believed, and because mindless repetition has a way of making things nearly true, and because dramatic crises require drastic and all-encompassing solutions. Besides, the thinking goes, falsehood and exaggeration can serve a purpose if it induces virtuous behavior. The more afraid we are of the shadow of racism, the more conscious we might become of our own unsuspected biases.</div>
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And so to Paris.</div>
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I’m not the first to notice the incongruity of this huge gathering of world leaders meeting to combat a notional enemy in the same place where a real enemy just inflicted so much mortal damage.</div>
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Then again, it’s also appropriate, since reality-substitution is how modern liberalism conducts political business. What is the central liberal project of the 21st century, if not to persuade people that climate change represents an infinitely greater threat to human civilization than the barbarians—sorry, violent extremists—of Mosul and Molenbeek? Why overreact to a few hundred deaths today when hundreds of thousands will be dead in a century or two if we fail to act now?</div>
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Here again the same dishonest pattern is at work. The semantic trick in the phrase “climate change”—allowing every climate anomaly to serve as further proof of the overall theory. The hysteria generated by an imperceptible temperature rise of 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880—as if the trend is bound to continue forever, or is not a product of natural variation, or cannot be mitigated except by drastic policy interventions. The hyping of flimsy studies—melting Himalayan glaciers; vanishing polar ice—to press the political point. The job security and air of self-importance this provides the tens of thousands of people—EPA bureaucrats, wind-turbine manufacturers, litigious climate scientists, NGO gnomes—whose livelihoods depend on a climate crisis. The belief that even if the crisis isn’t quite what it’s cracked up to be, it does us all good to be more mindful about the environment.</div>
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And, of course, the chance to switch the subject. If your enemy is global jihad, then to defeat it you need military wherewithal, martial talents and political will. If your enemy is the structure of an energy-intensive global economy, then you need a compelling justification to change it. Climate dystopia can work wonders, provided the jihadists don’t interrupt too often.</div>
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Here’s a climate prediction for the year 2115: Liberals will still be organizing campaigns against yet another mooted social or environmental crisis. Temperatures will be about the same.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-91673564634446239842015-11-11T14:24:00.003-08:002015-11-11T14:24:40.505-08:00Why the basic global warming hypothesis is wrong; CO2 climate sensitivity exaggerated 21X<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 18.48px;">Kyoji Kimoto, a Japanese chemist, scientist, and </span><a href="http://patents.justia.com/inventor/kyoji-kimoto" style="background-color: white; color: #7a7a7a; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 18.48px; text-decoration: none;"><span class="s2">fuel-cell computer modeler & inventor,</span></a><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 18.48px;"> has a new essay below explaining why the basic anthropogenic global warming hypothesis is wrong and leads to highly exaggerated climate sensitivity to doubled CO2. Kimoto finds climate sensitivity of only 0.14C, a factor of 21 times smaller than the IPCC canonical climate sensitivity estimate of ~3C per doubled CO2. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 18.48px;">See prior <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=kimoto">posts by Kimoto here</a>. </span></span></span><br />
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<a href="http://edberry.com/blog/authors-climate/kyoji-kimoto/basic-global-warming-hypothesis-is-wrong/">Basic global warming hypothesis is wrong</a></h1>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">by Kyoji Kimoto </em></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">1. Activities of four eminent modelers</span></div>
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The central dogma in anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory is that zero feedback climate sensitivity (Planck response) is 1.2~1.3 K. This gives climate sensitivity when multiplied by feedbacks (Hansen et al., 1984).</div>
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Until Kimoto (2009), theoretical discussions concentrated on the feedback issue. However, it is impossible to accurately determine the feedbacks caused by the variable nature of water in the perturbed atmosphere with CO2 doubling. This problem has resulted in speculative discussions for a long time.</div>
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However, rigorous discussions are possible for the zero feedback climate sensitivity (Planck response) based on mathematics and physics. The Planck response of 1.2 K for GCMs comes from one-dimensional radiative convective equilibrium models (1DRCM) that assume the fixed lapse rate of 6.5 K/km (FLRA) and use the mathematical method of Cess (1976), equation (3).</div>
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The work of the following eminent modelers are mainly concerned with the central dogma of the AGW theory.</div>
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Dr. S. Manabe:</div>
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Manabe & Wetherald (1967) used the FLRA for the CO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> mixing ratio of 300 ppm (1xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub>) and that of 600 ppm (2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub>) in the atmosphere, and obtained the zero feedback climate sensitivity CS(FAH) of 1.3 K in their 1DRCM study. Regarding lapse rate, Manabe & Strickler (1964) wrote,</div>
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“The observed tropospheric lapse rate of temperature is approximately 6.5 K/km. The explanation for this fact is rather complicated. It is essentially the result of a balance between (a) the stabilizing effect of upward heat transport in moist and dry convection on both small and large scales and (b), the destabilizing effect of radiative transfer. Instead of exploring the problem of the tropospheric lapse rate in detail, we here accept this as an observed fact and regard it as a critical lapse rate for convection.”</div>
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In the farewell lecture held on October 26, 2001, in Tokyo, Manabe told about his research,</div>
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“Research funds have been 3 million dollars per year and 120 million dollars for the past 40 years. It is not clever to pursue the scientific truth. Better way is choosing the relevant topics to the society for the funds covering the staff and computer cost of the project.”</div>
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Dr. J. Hansen:</div>
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(a) Hansen obtained the zero feedback climate sensitivity CS(FAH) of 1.2 K with the FLRA for 1xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> and 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> in his 1DRCM study.</div>
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(b) Although Hansen alarmed society about tipping points of catastrophic AGW many times, he showed no confidence in his model studies:</div>
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“The 1DRCM study is a fudge because obtained results strongly depend on the lapse rate assumed.”</div>
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<a href="https://www.aip.org/history-programs/niels-bohr-library/oral-histories/24309-1" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0066bf; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.1s ease-in-out;">https://www.aip.org/history-programs/niels-bohr-library/oral-histories/24309-1</a></div>
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“Observations Not Models”</div>
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<a href="http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2004/04/14/observations-not-models/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0066bf; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.1s ease-in-out;">http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2004/04/14/observations-not-models/</a></div>
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“James Hansen Increasingly Insensitive”</div>
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<a href="http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2005/04/28/james-hansen-increasingly-insensitive/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0066bf; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.1s ease-in-out;">http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2005/04/28/james-hansen-increasingly-insensitive/</a></div>
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Dr. M. Schlesinger:</div>
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Schlesinger was an AGW denier in the early 1980s as shown by Gates et al. (1981) which calculated a climate sensitivity of 0.3 K when the sea surface temperature is held in climatological values for 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.</sub> In order to get plentiful funds, he has become the top alarmist of catastrophic AGW. He calculated the central dogma of AGW theory as follows:</div>
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(a) He obtained the zero feedback climate sensitivity of 1.3 K with the FLRA for 1xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2 </sub>and 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> in his 1DRCM study (Schlesinger, 1986).</div>
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(b) Unfairly, he utilized the Cess method without referring to Cess (1976) to obtain his equation (6) for the Planck response of 1.2 K (Schlesinger, 1986). Kimoto (2009) pointed out that it is only a transformation of Cess equation (4) as shown in Section 3.</div>
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Dr. D. Randall:</div>
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Randall obtained the zero feedback climate sensitivity of 1.2 K utilizing equation (3) in his lecture (2011) here. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjE4GDC7afQ" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0066bf; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.1s ease-in-out;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjE4GDC7afQ</a></div>
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However, his calculation contains a mathematical error as shown in Section 4.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">2. Failure of the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5 K/km (FLRA)</span></div>
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Modern AGW theory began from the 1DRCM studies with fixed absolute and relative humidity utilizing the FLRA for 1xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> and 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> (Manabe & Strickler, 1964; Manabe & Wetherald, 1967; Hansen et al., 1981).</div>
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Table 1 shows the climate sensitivities for 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> obtained in these studies, where the climate sensitivity with the fixed absolute humidity CS (FAH) is 1.2 to 1.3 K (Hansen et al., 1984).</div>
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Schlesinger (1986) confirmed these results by obtaining the CS (FAH) of 1.3 K and the radiative forcing of 4 W/m2 for 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> in his 1DRCM study.</div>
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The ratio of the climate sensitivity with fixed relative humidity CS (FRH) to the zero feedback climate sensitivity CS (FAH) is water vapor feedback WVF by (1), which is 1.6 ~ 1.8 as shown in Table 1.</div>
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CS (FRH) = CS (FAH) x WVF=CS (FAH) x 1.6 ~ 1.8 (1)</div>
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<a href="http://edberry.com/SiteDocs/2015/10/KK-Table-1B.png" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0066bf; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.1s ease-in-out;"><img alt="KK Table 1B" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-31727" height="366" src="http://edberry.com/SiteDocs/2015/10/KK-Table-1B.png" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 24px; max-width: 100%;" width="515" /></a></div>
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In the 1DRCM studies, the most basic assumption is the FLRA. The lapse rate of 6.5 K/km is defined for 1xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> in the U.S. Standard Atmosphere (1962) (Ramanathan & Coakley, 1978). There is no guarantee, however, for the same lapse rate maintained in the perturbed atmosphere with 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> (Chylek & Kiehl, 1981; Sinha, 1995).</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
Therefore, the lapse rate for 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> is a parameter requiring a sensitivity analysis to check the validity of the modeled results as shown in Fig.1. In the figure, line B shows the FLRA gives a uniform warming for the troposphere and the surface. Since CS (FAH) greatly changes with a minute variation of the lapse rate for 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub>, the results of the 1DRCM studies in Table 1 are theoretically meaningless.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
Further, Fig.1 shows the failure of the FLRA in 1DRCM studies, which were initiated by Manabe & Strickler (1964) who used an invalid assumption about how doubling CO2 perturbs the atmosphere, shown in Section 1.</div>
<figure class="wp-caption aligncenter" id="attachment_31729" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px auto 24px; max-width: 100%; width: 516px;"><a href="http://edberry.com/SiteDocs/2015/10/KK-Fig-1A.png" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0066bf; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.1s ease-in-out;"><img alt="KK Fig 1A" class="wp-image-31729 size-full" height="386" src="http://edberry.com/SiteDocs/2015/10/KK-Fig-1A.png" style="box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; max-width: 100%;" width="516" /></a><figcaption class="wp-caption-text" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">Fig. 1 Parameter sensitivity analysis of the lapse rate for 2xCO2. CS (FAH): Climate sensitivity with the fixed absolute humidity.</figcaption></figure><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
In IPCC’s AGW theory, the CS (FAH) of 1.2 ~ 1.3 K is called as Planck response (Bony et al., 2006). The FLRA in the 1DRCM is extended to the Planck response of 1.2 K with the uniform warming throughout the troposphere in the GCMs studies (Hansen et al., 1984; Soden & Held, 2006; Bony et al., 2006). Climate sensitivity for 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> is expressed by (2) in the 14 GCMs studies for the IPCC AR4 as the extension of (1) (Soden & Held, 2006; Bony et al., 2006).</div>
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Climate sensitivity = Planck response x Feedbacks (wv, al, cl, lr)</div>
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= 1.2 K x 2.5 = 3 K (2)</div>
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Feedbacks are water vapor, ice albedo, cloud and lapse rate feedback.</div>
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The theoretical 1DRCM studies with the FLRA have failed, as shown in Fig. 1. Therefore, the canonical climate sensitivity of 3 K claimed by the IPCC is theoretically meaningless since it is used the 1DRCM studies in Table 1 in its GCMs.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
Therefore, the cause of the AGW debate for the past 50 years is the lack of the parameter sensitivity analysis in the 1DRCM studies by Manabe & Wetherald (1967), Hansen et al. (1981) and Schlesinger (1986). Such sensitivity analysis is a standard scientific procedure to check the validity of the obtained results.</div>
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If sensitivity analysis were performed in the above studies, the result would show AGW will cause no huge economic loss. Also, the Fukushima nuclear disaster might not have occurred without the Kyoto protocol that promoted nuclear power.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">3. Mathematical error in Cess (1976)</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
In 1976, Cess obtained – 3.3 (W/m2)/K for the Planck feedback parameter <img alt="\lambda_0" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="18" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a19b4bf19d45df8aebeeacdd45c867ad_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -3px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="19" /> utilizing the modified Stefan-Boltzmann equation (3), which gives the Planck response of 1.2 K with the radiative forcing RF of 4 W/m2 for 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> as follows (Cess, 1976).</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
OLR = <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> <img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</sup> (3)</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
<img alt="\lambda_0" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="18" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a19b4bf19d45df8aebeeacdd45c867ad_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -3px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="19" /> = – dOLR/dT<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s </sub>= – 4 <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> <img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">3 </sup>= – 4 OLR/T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s </sub>= – 3.3 (W/m2)/K (4)</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
Planck response = – RF/<img alt="\lambda_0" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="18" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a19b4bf19d45df8aebeeacdd45c867ad_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -3px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="19" /><sub style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </sub>= 4(W/m2)/ 3.3 (W/m2)/K = 1.2 K (5)</div>
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Where,</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
OLR (Outgoing long wave radiation at the top of the atmosphere) = 233 W/m2</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
<img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" />: the effective emissivity of the surface-atmosphere system</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
<img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" />: Stefan-Boltzmann constant</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub>: the surface temperature of 288 K</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
Coincidently, the Planck response of 1.2 K in (5) is the same as the zero feedback climate sensitivities of 1.2 to 1.3 K obtained from the 1DRCM studies in Table 1. Therefore, many researchers followed the Cess method. Their results are in the 14 GCMs studies for the IPCC AR4. AR4 shows the theoretical basis of IPCC’s claim that the Planck response is 1.2 K (Schlesinger, 1986; Wetherald & Manabe, 1988; Cess et al., 1989; Cess et al., 1990; Tsushima et al., 2005; Soden & Held, 2006; Bony et al., 2006).</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: red;">However, the above derivation is apparently a mathematical error since it is not a constant enabling us to differentiate (3) as shown in (4)</span> (Kimoto, 2009). Schlesinger (1986) proposed a different equation (6) to give the Planck response of 1.2 K, which is only a transformation of (4) as follows (Kimoto, 2009).</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 60px;">
– 1/<img alt="\lambda_0" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="18" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a19b4bf19d45df8aebeeacdd45c867ad_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -3px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="19" /><sub style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </sub>= <img alt="\Lambda_0" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="18" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-5e2c0d624ee1d40a416f233e084b9c46_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -3px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="23" /> = T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub>/ (1 – <img alt="\alpha" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-8970b282c5cfe9620d567cfec85d40d1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="13" /> ) S<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">0 </sub>= 0.3 K / (W/m2) (6)</div>
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Here,</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
surface albedo <img alt="\alpha" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-8970b282c5cfe9620d567cfec85d40d1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="13" /> = 0.3 and solar constant S<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">0</sub> = 1370 W/m2.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
At the equilibrium,</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
OLR = (S<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">0</sub>/4) (1 – <img alt="\alpha" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-8970b282c5cfe9620d567cfec85d40d1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="13" />)</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
From (4),</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
<img alt="\lambda_0" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="18" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a19b4bf19d45df8aebeeacdd45c867ad_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -3px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="19" /> = – 4OLR/T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s </sub>= – 4x (S<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">0</sub>/4) (1 – <img alt="\alpha" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-8970b282c5cfe9620d567cfec85d40d1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="13" />)/T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
Then,</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
– 1/<img alt="\lambda_0" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="18" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a19b4bf19d45df8aebeeacdd45c867ad_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -3px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="19" /><sub style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </sub>= <img alt="\Lambda_0" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="18" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-5e2c0d624ee1d40a416f233e084b9c46_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -3px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="23" /> = T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub>/ (1 – <img alt="\alpha" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-8970b282c5cfe9620d567cfec85d40d1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="13" />) S<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">0</sub></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
Further, the combination of T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub>=288 K and OLR=233 W/m2 is not in accordance with Stefan-Boltzmann law in (4) (Bony et al., 2006; Kimoto, 2009). Since (3) can be rewritten as</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
<img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> = OLR/T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</sup>,</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
<img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> is the ratio of OLR to the radiation flux at the surface. There are, however, fluxes from evaporation and thermal conduction in addition to the radiation flux at the surface in Fig. 3. <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: red;">Therefore, (3) cannot be a theoretical basis of the AGW theory because it is against the physical reality of nature.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">4. Mathematical error in Randall lecture (2011)</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjE4GDC7afQ" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0066bf; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.1s ease-in-out;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjE4GDC7afQ</a></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
Randall shows the following equation series in his lecture.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
(1 – <img alt="\alpha" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-8970b282c5cfe9620d567cfec85d40d1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="13" />)S <img alt="\pi" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-31607e884d105de67e8124d715d28506_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> a<sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">2 </sup>= <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> (<img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</sup>) 4 <img alt="\pi" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-31607e884d105de67e8124d715d28506_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> a<sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sup></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
(1 – <img alt="\alpha" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-8970b282c5cfe9620d567cfec85d40d1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="13" />)S = 4 <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> (<img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</sup>)</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
0 = 4(<img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" />) (<img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</sup>) + 4 <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" />(4 <img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</sup> <img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub>)</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
<img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> Ts = – (T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub>/4) (<img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" />/<img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" />)</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
<img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> (<img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</sup>) = 240 W/m2</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
(<img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" />) (<img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</sup>) = – 4 W/m2</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: red;">This is a mathematical error as shown below.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
<img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" />/<img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> = – 4/240</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
Ts = 288 K</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
<img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> Ts = – (T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub>/4) (<img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> / <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> ) = (- 288/4) (- 4/240) = 1.2 K</div>
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Kimoto critique:</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
The following equation is obtained when Cess’s eq.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
OLR = <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> (<img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</sup></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
is differentiated with CO2 concentration C.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
<img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> OLR/<img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> C = (<img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" />/<img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> C) (<img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</sup>) + 4 <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> (<img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</sup>) (<img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> Ts/ <img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> C)</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
Radiative forcing is 4 W/m2 when <img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> C is 2xCO2.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
– 4 W/m2 = <img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" /> <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> (<img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</sup>) + 4 <img alt="\epsilon" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="10" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-3ffd08f8cfece479aef325c79da178b1_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: -1px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="8" /> (<img alt="\sigma" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="9" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-85530ce651284e1df6c244bc68a7517b_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="12" /> T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s</sub><sup style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</sup>) <img alt="\Delta" class="ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format" height="15" src="http://edberry.com/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-a7afb64c6272188af590843afb1a9f56_l3.svg" style="background: none !important; border: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: 0px;" title="Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com" width="17" />Ts</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
Randall lecture (2011) neglects the second term to obtain the tricky equation above.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">5. Physical reality of the response to 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub></span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
In the orthodox AGW theory based on the radiation height change by Mitchell (1989) and Held & Soden (2000), the radiation height increases from point a to point b in Fig. 2 due to the increased opaqueness when CO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> is doubled. This decreases the temperature at the effective radiation height of 5 km which causes an energy imbalance between the absorbed solar radiation (ASR) of 239 W/m2 and the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) in Fig. 3.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
In order to recover the balance of energy, the radiation temperature increases from point b to point c. <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: red;">A 1 K warming at the effective radiation height is enough to recover the energy imbalance caused by the radiative forcing of 3.7 W/m2 for 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> from Stefan-Boltzmann law as shown in Fig.2. Under the FLRA, the surface temperature increases in the same degree of 1 K from T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s1</sub> to T<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s2</sub> in Mitchell (1989) and Held & Soden (2000). However, it is erroneous since the FLRA failed in Section 2.</span></div>
<figure class="wp-caption aligncenter" id="attachment_31731" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px auto 24px; max-width: 100%; width: 500px;"><a href="http://edberry.com/SiteDocs/2015/10/KK-Fig-2A.png" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0066bf; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.1s ease-in-out;"><img alt="KK Fig 2A" class="wp-image-31731 size-full" height="386" src="http://edberry.com/SiteDocs/2015/10/KK-Fig-2A.png" style="box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; max-width: 100%;" width="500" /></a><figcaption class="wp-caption-text" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">Fig. 2. Global warming theory based on the radiation height change. Physical reality: The surface temperature increase is 0.1 ~ 0.2 K with the slightly decreased lapse rate of 6.3 K/km from 6.5 K/km.</figcaption></figure><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: red;">In reality, the bold line in Fig.2 shows the surface temperature increases as much as 0.1~0.2 K with the slightly decreased lapse rate from 6.5 K/km to 6.3 K/km.</span> Since the zero feedback climate sensitivity CS(FAH) is negligibly small at the surface, there is no water vapor or ice albedo feedback which are large positive feedbacks in the GCMs studies of the IPCC. The following data support the above picture.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
(A) Kiehl & Ramanathan (1982) show the following radiative forcing for 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub>.</div>
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Radiative forcing at the tropopause: 3.7 W/m2.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
Radiative forcing at the surface: 0.55 ~ 1.56 W/m2 (averaged 1.1 W/m2).</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
The surface radiative forcing is greatly reduced by the IR absorption overlap with water vapor plentifully existing at the surface. This denies the FLRA giving the uniform warming throughout the troposphere in the 1DRCM and the GCMs studies.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
(B) Newell & Dopplick (1979) obtained a climate sensitivity of 0.24 K considering the evaporation cooling from the surface of the ocean.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
(C) Ramanathan (1981) shows the surface temperature increase of 0.17 K with the direct heating of 1.2 W/m2 for 2xCO<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</sub> at the surface.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
(D) The surface climate sensitivity is calculated from the energy budget of the earth in Fig. 3 and the surface radiative forcing of 1.1W/m2 as follows.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
Natural greenhouse effect: 289 K – 255 K = 34 K</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
Natural greenhouse energy: E<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">b</sub> – E<sub style="box-sizing: border-box;">s </sub>= 333 – 78 (W/m2) = 255 (W/m2)</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
Climate sensitivity factor : 34 K/255 (W/m2) = 0.13 K/ (W/m2)</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
Surface radiative forcing: 0.55 ~ 1.56 W/m2 (averaged 1.1 W/m2 )</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;">
Surface climate sensitivity: 0.13K/(W/m2) x 1.1 (W/m2) = 0.14 K</div>
<figure class="wp-caption aligncenter" id="attachment_31732" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px auto 24px; max-width: 100%; width: 628px;"><a href="http://edberry.com/SiteDocs/2015/10/KK-Fig-3A.png" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0066bf; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.1s ease-in-out;"><img alt="KK Fig 3A" class="wp-image-31732 size-full" height="440" src="http://edberry.com/SiteDocs/2015/10/KK-Fig-3A.png" style="box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; max-width: 100%;" width="628" /></a><figcaption class="wp-caption-text" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: center;">Fig. 3. Energy budget of the earth adapted from Trenberth et al. (2009).</figcaption></figure><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">Conclusions</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
Four eminent modelers formed the central dogma of the IPCC AGW theory. Their theory claims the zero feedback climate sensitivity (Planck response) is 1.2 ~ 1.3 K for 2xCO2. When multiplied by the feedback factor of 2.5, this gives the canonical climate sensitivity of 3 K claimed by the IPCC .</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
However, this IPCC dogma fails due to the lack of parameter sensitivity analysis of the lapse rate for 2xCO2 in the one dimensional model (1DRCM). The dogma also contains a mathematical error in its derivation of the Planck response by Cess (1976). Therefore, the IPCC AGW theory and its canonical climate sensitivity of 3 K for 2xCO2 are invalid.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
<b>This study derives a climate sensitivity of 0.14 K from the energy budget of the earth.</b></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 16px; padding: 0px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">References</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-62711302799571173362015-11-06T22:32:00.002-08:002015-11-06T22:32:15.940-08:00WSJ: "In Exxon War, Bamboozled by Greenies" & "The Tombstone Pipeline"<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-exxon-war-bamboozled-by-greenies-1446852517?mod=rss_opinion_main&cb=logged0.5050609929021448" style="font-size: 40px; line-height: 1.2em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>In Exxon War, Bamboozled by Greenies</b></span></a><br />
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Journalists discover (and misrepresent) what the oil giant has been trying to tell them for years.</h2>
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<time class="timestamp" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #666666; display: block; font-family: 'Whitney SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 2.2rem; margin: 0px 0px 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nov. 6, 2015 6:28 p.m. ET THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</time><br />
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<img alt="The Exxon Mobil refinery in Baytown, Texas. " data-enlarge="http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-LD486_bw1107_M_20151106142909.jpg" data-in-at4units-src="http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-LD486_bw1107_P_20151106142909.jpg" data-in-base-src="http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-LD486_bw1107_P_20151106142909.jpg" data-intent="" src="http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-LD486_bw1107_P_20151106142909.jpg" style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; display: block; left: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 300px;" title="The Exxon Mobil refinery in Baytown, Texas. " /><span class="image-enlarge" style="background: url(data:image/png; border: 0px; bottom: 10px; cursor: pointer; height: 50px; left: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 50px; z-index: 999;">ENLARGE</span></div>
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<span class="wsj-article-caption-content" style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Exxon Mobil refinery in Baytown, Texas.</span><span class="wsj-article-credit" itemprop="creator" style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 11px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="wsj-article-credit-tag" style="background: 0px 0px; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">PHOTO: </span>JESSICA RINALDI/REUTERS</span></div>
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Scurry on board the <a class="company-name" href="http://quotes.wsj.com/XOM" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Exxon</a><a class="chiclet-wrapper" href="http://quotes.wsj.com/XOM" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; display: inline-block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></a> prosecution express. Lest they be left behind and called “deniers,” Bernie Sanders, Martin O’Malley,the attorney general of New York and Al Gorethis week all demanded criminal investigation of Exxon Mobil as a result of recent media “exposés.”</div>
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<a href="http://topics.wsj.com/person/C/Hillary-Clinton/6344" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Hillary Clinton</a> in New Hampshire on Thursday agreed, saying, “There’s a lot of evidence that they misled people.”</div>
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Not one of these worthies likely examined the evidence, which tells a story quite different from the claim that Exxon somehow concealed its understanding of the climate debate. But the hurdle rate for “investigative” journalism has apparently become low. The allegedly damning documents that the Los Angeles Times and the website Inside Climate News (ICN) claim to have unearthed were published by Exxon itself, in peer-reviewed journals, on its website, and in archives created by Exxon for public use.</div>
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Business World Columnist Holman Jenkins Jr.on President Obama’s announcement to reject TransCanada’s application to build the Keystone XL Pipeline. Photo credit: Associated Press.</div>
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Technically, the reporters wallow in the equivocation fallacy. Uncertainty about whether X=2 is not the same as uncertainty about whether 2+2=4. Acknowledging and even studying man’s impact on the climate, as Exxon has done and continues to do, is not tantamount to endorsing a green policy agenda of highly questionable value.</div>
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And that’s the real problem. Read closely and the accusation isn’t really that Exxon misled the public by emphasizing the uncertainties of climate science, which are real. It’s that Exxon refused to sign up for a vision of climate doom that would justify large and immediate costs to reduce fossil fuel use.</div>
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This fantasy is summed up in the ICN series by Penn State climatologist Michael Mann,who is quoted as saying, “All it would’ve taken is for one prominent fossil fuel CEO to know this was about more than just shareholder profits.”</div>
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But wait, hasn’t this experiment been run? In the early 2000s, BP CEO <a href="http://topics.wsj.com/person/B/John-Browne/307" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">John Browne</a>began sounding a climate alarm. Ron Oxburgh, the chairman of Shell, gave a speech warning of planetary doom. In 2007, <a class="" href="http://quotes.wsj.com/AA" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Alcoa</a><span class="company-name-type" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">,</span><a class="chiclet-wrapper" href="http://quotes.wsj.com/AA" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; display: inline-block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></a> GE, <a class="" href="http://quotes.wsj.com/DUK" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Duke Energy</a><span class="company-name-type" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">,</span><a class="chiclet-wrapper" href="http://quotes.wsj.com/DUK" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; display: inline-block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></a> Ford, <a class="company-name" href="http://quotes.wsj.com/DD" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">DuPont</a><a class="chiclet-wrapper" href="http://quotes.wsj.com/DD" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; display: inline-block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></a> and others endorsed a U.S. cap-and-trade bill. All this failed to move the ball in two successive congresses, though, because Senate Democrats (the second time joined by President Obama) didn’t want to be blamed for jacking up gasoline prices.</div>
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The same experiment has also been run globally. Out of 196 countries, 196 have concluded that there is no way, with current technology, to take a big enough whack out of carbon-dioxide emissions at a cost their societies would be prepared to bear.</div>
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Even Mr. Obama’s decision on Friday to nix the Keystone XL pipeline came at a time of low gas prices when he will never face voters again, and in full knowledge that his decision won’t impede Canada’s development of its oil sands.</div>
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The narrative of Exxon’s supposedly criminal deceit may be loopy, but save your real contempt for the climate lawyers now rubbing their hands over a Big Tobacco-style lawsuit. In effect, their cynical reasoning is that Exxon can be punished for failing to conceal its awareness of the climate debate.</div>
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But why stop at Exxon? President Obama is aware of the threat of climate change—he talks about it all the time—yet has presided over an expansion of oil and gas leasing. Vice President Al Gore endlessly harped on climate change—yet when confronted with a modest uptick in gasoline prices during his presidential run, insisted that President Clinton open the strategic reserve to keep gas prices low.</div>
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Maybe the tobacco analogy is apt after all. Recall that the result of government lawsuits wasn’t to ban tobacco use but to make government (and organized crime) the main beneficiary of tobacco revenues. The U.S. government controls 31% of America’s mineral rights, and has 42,000 drilling leases in effect covering 80 million acres. Federal lands produce 41% of America’s coal output. Elsewhere, governments control 100% of mineral rights. Wherever it operates these days, Exxon is mainly an agent for governments determined to realize oil revenues regardless of any climate fears.</div>
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But the big lie here is that any Exxon spectacle would be aimed at advancing the cause of climate policy anyway. Especially sad is the decision by Fred Krupp of the Environmental Defense Fund to sign a group letter calling for a criminal inquiry, though he mealy-mouthed his participation by saying “We don’t have all the facts. We’re not prejudging what happened.”</div>
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Mr. Krupp was last seen blaming the “shrillness that has permeated our advocacy” for the Senate defeats, and calling for a “more reasoned” and “calmer discussion” that is diametrically the opposite of the Exxon witch trial now being whipped up.</div>
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At least until this week, Mr. Krupp was an outlier, devoting himself to the coalition-building that is indispensable for real policy progress (and Exxon for the past six years has been a public supporter of a carbon tax). But Mr. Krupp’s fellow climate campaigners clearly have other priorities.</div>
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<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-tombstone-pipeline-1446854203?mod=rss_opinion_main&cb=logged0.9882291089743376"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Tombstone Pipeline</span></a></h1>
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Obama kills thousands of jobs for climate-change symbolism.</h2>
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<time class="timestamp" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #666666; display: block; font-family: 'Whitney SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 2.2rem; margin: 0px 0px 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nov. 6, 2015 6:56 p.m. ET</time><div class="comments-count-container" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; display: inline-block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px; top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
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President Obama personally killed the Keystone XL pipeline on Friday, dismissing the project as a mere “symbol” that “has occupied what I, frankly, consider an overinflated role in our political discourse.” The irony is that the pipeline’s benefits would be tangible, while the symbolism and overinflation are entirely political.</div>
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A President more invested in the real economy would have long ago welcomed Keystone’s contribution to North American energy development. But on Friday Mr. Obama emerged, seven years into both his Presidency and multiple State Department reviews of the pipeline, to declare that Keystone is not in the national interest of the United States.</div>
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This position is—to borrow his phrase—well outside the bipartisan political center. Mr. Obama would have been more honest if he’d admitted that he is bowing to the interests of the green-left fringe and the Democratic donors who oppose all forms of carbon energy.</div>
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A broad Congressional majority voted to approve Keystone this year, including nine Democrats in the Senate and 28 in the House, falling only a few votes short of a veto override. Business, consumers, labor unions and America’s No. 1 trading partner Canada also wanted to connect Alberta’s oil sands to Gulf Coast refineries, which would create thousands of jobs and strengthen energy security.</div>
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Opinon Journal Video</h4>
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Business World Columnist Holman Jenkins Jr.on President Obama’s announcement to reject TransCanada’s application to build the Keystone XL Pipeline. Photo credit: Associated Press.</div>
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Even as he killed Keystone, Mr. Obama urged Congress to “pass a serious infrastructure plan.” But what are pipelines if not the definition of infrastructure—and this one shovel-ready besides, at no cost to taxpayers? Even Mr. Obama conceded that Keystone is not “the express lane to climate disaster,” and the State Department determined the pipeline would <em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">reduce </em>CO2 emissions by displacing oil transport via truck and rail. Then why reject it?</div>
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To promote his climate-change ambitions, by Mr. Obama’s own admission. Mr. Obama said in his statement Friday that the U.S. “is now a global leader” on climate change “and frankly, approving this project would have undercut that global leadership.” So he will now dump Keystone’s corpse at the Paris global-warming summit in the coming weeks and demand that other countries make their own ritual sacrifices.</div>
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Mr. Obama suggested that “other big emitters like China” will be impressed. Yet only this week the Chinese revealed that their coal use is 17% higher than previously thought. China is such a heavy carbon user that this 17% wedge alone amounts to 70% of all U.S. coal emissions. If this correction in any way revises Mr. Obama’s climate pact with Chinese President <a href="http://topics.wsj.com/person/J/Xi-Jinping/6475" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Xi Jinping</a>, he didn’t mention it.</div>
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The larger and more dangerous symbolism is what Mr. Obama’s refusal reveals about today’s Democratic Party. Liberals used to favor a price on carbon, which would be damaging enough for economic growth. Now they believe fossil fuels must remain underground forever and favor any obstruction against their development. <a href="http://topics.wsj.com/person/C/Hillary-Clinton/6344" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Hillary Clinton</a> now embraces this same philosophy.</div>
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Maybe Keystone can be revived in the next Administration, assuming a Republican wins the Presidency and the <a class="company-name" href="http://quotes.wsj.com/TRP" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">TransCanada</a><a class="chiclet-wrapper" href="http://quotes.wsj.com/TRP" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0080c3; display: inline-block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></a> company hasn’t written off America as too politically risky. For now, workers and the economy will have to suffer for Mr. Obama’s green illusions.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4142988674703954802.post-33401416325824915252015-11-05T10:32:00.004-08:002015-11-05T10:32:42.939-08:00Even the 'lukewarmer' position on global warming has become untenable on the basis of both observations & theory<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Even the "lukewarmer" position on anthropogenic global warming has become untenable on the basis of both observations and theory:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1. Lindzen & Choi papers based on ERBE satellite observations showed sensitivity (to doubled </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">CO2 levels) of only ~0.18C</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/01/new-paper-confirms-findings-of-lindzen.html</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2. Dr. David Evans has shown, using the same flawed radiative model of the IPCC as the basis, that "The ECS might be <i>almost zero,</i> is likely less than 0.25 °C"</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://joannenova.com.au/2015/11/new-science-18-finally-climate-sensitivity-calculated-at-just-one-tenth-of-official-estimates/</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3. Kimoto has shown climate sensitivity is ~.15-.2C due to the IPCC false assumptions of a fixed lapse rate and a mathematical error in calculating the Planck feedback parameter:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=kimoto</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">4 Volokin et al have shown that planetary surface temperatures are a function of solar insolation and surface pressure only, not greenhouse gas concentrations, on all 8 planets for which we have adequate data, including Earth & Venus.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=volokin</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">5. The surface temperature and tropospheric temperature profile can easily be derived from physical first principles including the 1st LoT, Ideal Gas Law, Poisson Equation, Newton's 2nd Law, and Stefan-Boltzmann Law for solar forcing only, and without greenhouse gas "radiative forcing," and perfectly replicates the verified 1976 US Standard Atmosphere. Thus, once again, sensitivity to CO2 is mathematically proven to be essentially zero. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=greenhouse+equation</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">6. Convection dominates radiative-convective equilibrium in the troposphere by a factor of ~8X, and increased greenhouse gases accelerate convection, thereby erasing any alleged cold-heats-hot greenhouse gas radiative effects on the surface. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/08/why-greenhouse-gases-accelerate.html</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">7. Many other climate sensitivity estimates have concluded <a href="http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/12/observations-show-ipcc-exaggerates.html">climate sensitivity is effectively zero, or so close to zero as to be unmeasurable and negligible.</a></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4