Friday, January 15, 2010
Report: Arctic 10-18°C Hotter 3M Years Ago
"Scientists documented evidence that the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas were too warm to support summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3 to 3 million years ago). This period is characterized by warm temperatures similar to those projected for the end of this century, and is used as an analog to understand future conditions.
The U.S. Geological Survey found that summer sea-surface temperatures in the Arctic were between 10 to 18°C (50 to 64°F) during the mid-Pliocene, while current temperatures are around or below 0°C (32°F)."
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Sunday, January 10, 2010
The Mini Ice Age Starts Here
From the UK Daily Mail
According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado, Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007 – and even the most committed global warming activists do not dispute this.
Out Mann-ed: Tree Rings "Uncontained"
Tree-ring data from papers other than the infamous Mann Hockey Stick paper extend the data to about the year 800 (Esper et al, 2002; Frank et al 2007), clearly showing a medieval warming period (MWP) around 1000 and a cool period between 1200-1800, the "little ice age" (LIA), with subsequent recovery from the LIA in the 19-20th centuries. Remember the infamous Mann email stating "...it would be nice to "contain" the putative 'MWP'"?
"Bottom line - their [sic] is no way the MWP (whenever it was) was as warm globally as the last 20 years. There is also no way a whole decade in the LIA period was more than 1 deg C on a global basis cooler than the 1961-90 mean. This is all gut feeling, no science, but years of experience of dealing with global scales and varaibility [sic]." - Phil Jones email
Greenland Ice Thickness: Increasing
North American Snow Cover: Highest Recorded
From the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, North American December Snow Cover is the highest in the entire 44 year database.
Northern hemisphere snow cover is the second highest recorded in the database.
Milankovitch Update: "Moderate Cooling"
Several chaotic variables determine the amount of solar energy impacting the earth. One variable, called Milanković theory, relates variations in eccentricity, axial tilt (also called obliquity), and precession of the Earth's orbit to climatic patterns on Earth, as shown in the charts below covering different time scales:
The last time insolation was this low was about 20,000 years ago, just before thawing of the last ice age. Insolation peaked again 11,000 years ago and has declined since then.
and see prior post on the cause of ice ages
What is the present status of the earth's orbit (insolation) in relation to the past and what do the next 2000 years portend? For some perspective, the mean insolation of the past 1 million years (at summer solstice, 65N latitude) is 495.08 W/m^2, and the present day isolation is 480.08. This is 3% below the mean of the past 1 million years (graph below)
The last time insolation was this low was about 20,000 years ago, just before thawing of the last ice age. Insolation peaked again 11,000 years ago and has declined since then.
Insolation is now bottoming for the next 2 millenia at a relatively "cold" level, but short of the lows associated with the peak of past ice ages.
Solar Insolation Computer Codes for Windows
Press release today on another paper relating Milankovitch cycles to global climate change.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
CO2 Lags Temperature - Part 2
From CO2 - Cause or Effect
"The climate activists believe that the CO2 has been the main reason for the climate changes within the last million years. However, the chemical calculations prove that the reason is the temperature changes of the oceans. Warm seawater dissolves much less CO2 than the cold seawater.This means that CO2 content of the atmosphere will automatically increase, if the sea surface temperature increases for any reason. "
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