Hansen signs Petition stating All man-made CO2 Must Stop and Reverse to Negative

Press Release 3/30/10 from 350.org & The Center For Biological Diversity (Where Life is Good (TM)):

the unobtainable goal (according to IPCC models of CO2 lifetime in the atmosphere-see below)

Campaign Launched to Gather 500,000 Signatures to Cap Greenhouse Gas Pollution at 350 Parts Per Million

Dr. James Hansen, Barbara Kingsolver, Ed Begley, Jr., Bonnie Raitt, Lemony Snicket, Sierra Club Board Member Among First Signers

WASHINGTON— The Center for Biological Diversity today launched a campaign to gather 500,000 signatures on a People’s Petition asking the Environmental Protection Agency to set a national pollution standard to reduce carbon dioxide pollution in the atmosphere to 350 parts per million. Atmospheric CO2 is currently at 390 parts per million and growing, causing a dangerous climate disruption.

CO2 Lifetime: Which do you believe- Models or Data?

The IPCC loves theoretical computer models, even when said models have not been experimentally verified or actually contradict experimental data. However, as Richard Feynman, PhD, Nobel Laureate in Physics, famously said "It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If your theory doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong". As shown in a prior post, the IPCC AR4 states that the models at the heart of the confidence level of at least 90% that man is responsible for global warming have not been tested against observational data and furthermore the necessary tests to evaluate the models have yet to be developed. In addition, observational satellite data has since shown uniformly that the models fail miserably. Let that not be an impedance to the settled consensus, however. 

An analogous situation is also true of the second most important foundation of the AGW hypothesis, whereby the estimates of the lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere are based upon entirely theoretical unvalidated computer models which estimate CO2 lifetimes in the atmosphere of hundreds to thousands of years in stark contrast to scores of observational measurements which show an average maximum lifetime of about 5 years:

Red line is IPCC computer model estimate (should actually be multiple hundreds of years)

More Evidence IPCC Models are Inadequate

The IPCC models place an unjustified and almost total reliance upon CO2 as the driver of climate, while ignoring ocean oscillations. Strange that a model of heat transfer would ignore the huge periodic oscillations of the reservoir of over 99% of the earth's heat content. A recent paper: Masahiro Ohashi and H. L. Tanaka, 2010: Vol. 6A (2010) : Data Analysis of Recent Warming Pattern in the Arctic. Special Edition -Special Edition of the Fourth Japan China Korea Joint Conference on Meteorology- p.1-4 is the subject of a highly recommended guest post at Roger Pielke Sr.'s Blog today. The article finds that most of the recent warming 1970-1990 in the arctic is a result of the natural variability of the Arctic Oscillation [AO] rather than the IPCC model explanation of anthropogenic global warming. From the abstract of the paper: "Since the decadal variation of the AO is recognized as the natural variability of the global atmosphere, it is shown that both of decadal variabilities before and after 1989 in the Arctic can be mostly explained by the natural variability of the AO not by the external response due to the human activity". On Dr. Pielke's blog posting, the author of the paper, Dr. Masahiro Ohashi, notes the implications of this work:

According to our result, the rapid warming during 1970-1990 contains a large fraction of unpredictable natural variability due to the AO. The subsequent period of 1990-2010 indicates a clear trend of the AO to be negative. The global warming has been stopped by natural variability superimposed on the gentle anthropogenic global warming. The important point is that the IPCC models have been tuned perfectly to fit the rapid warming during 1970-1990 by means of the ice-albedo feedback (anthropogenic forcing) which is not actually observed. IPCC models are justified with this wrong scientific basis and are applied to project the future global warming for 100 years in the future. Hence, we warn that the IPCC models overestimate the warming trend due to the mislead Arctic Oscillation.

Dr. Nils Axel Morner's Reply to Maldives Sea Level PR Stunt

On October 17, 2009, members of the Maldives' Cabinet donned scuba gear, dove to a table seated on the ocean floor, and used hand signals at an underwater meeting staged to highlight the threat of global warming to the lowest-lying nation on earth and requests for compensation from western nations emitting CO2. With a backdrop of coral, the meeting was a bid to draw attention to fears that rising sea levels caused by the melting of polar ice caps could swamp this Indian Ocean archipelago within a century. Its islands average 7 feet above sea level.

In response to this, sea level expert Dr. Nils Axel Morner wrote the open letter below to the President of the Maldives. Dr. Mörner is the past head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at Stockholm University in Sweden. He is past president (1999-2003) of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project. Dr. Mörner been studying the sea level and its effects on coastal areas for over 38 years.

You have recently held an undersea Cabinet meeting to raise awareness of the idea that global sea level is rising and hence threatens to drown the Maldives. This proposition is not founded in observational facts and true scientific judgements, Accordingly it is incorrect. Therefore, I am most surprised at your action and must protest to its intended message.

Papers on the ANTI-Greenhouse Effect of CO2

Three papers which conclude that at current levels, CO2 (and methane) produce an anti-greenhouse effect due to interaction with H20 by forming clusters. The IR radiation absorption spectra and radiating power of the CO2-H2O and CH4-H2O clusters were calculated and determined to reduce the greenhouse effect.

link

The Hansen Mars Challenge

Analysis of Mars Atmosphere Disproves AGW

A challenge to Hansen et al 1988:

No matter what scientific facts are presented to challenge the AGW ideology it is impossible for scientists to sway public opinion on this issue because the issue is political. It is very easy for high profile people who quote a scientific consensus that is supported by sophisticated computer models to convince the general public of anything that they want. 

Even though the computer models have never yielded a single result that matches observations, any criticism of the models is met with some sort of complex justification that is beyond the comprehension of the general public so it is readily accepted by the masses and those questioning the validity of the models are vilified by the promoters of the AGW agenda as skeptics and deniers who are in the pockets of big oil.

The sole support for AGW is the climate models, and the sole support for the climate models with respect to CO2 is the forcing parameter. There is no actual physical rational for the forcing parameter, because it was simply contrived from the assumption that observed warming of 0.6°C was due entirely to a 100ppmv increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. There was never any verification of this parameter either by theory or observation. There is no justification for this parameter based on the physical properties of CO2, because the molecular configuration of the CO2 molecule precludes any significant effect from CO2 beyond a concentration of 300ppmv, and the current concentration is 386ppmv. 

There is no justification for this parameter based on observation because the observed notch in the spectrum created by CO2 is virtually identical for both the Earth and Mars, and Mars has over 9 times the physical concentration of CO2 in its atmosphere than the Earth has in its atmosphere. 

Even the reference temperature value for the parameter is faulty because the maximum temperature increase possibly attributable to human CO2 emissions is 0.1°C per century; not the 0.6°C that is used in the forcing parameter. 

The climate models use a forcing parameter based on the equation: 

CO2 rf = f * ln([CO2]/[CO2]prein)/ln(2) 

 

where f= rf for CO2 doubling 

 

In further documentation according to the IPCC, the “Radiative Forcing” ÄF, in watts per square meter, due to additional carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, can be calculated from the formula: 

ÄF = 5.35 ln C/Co 

 

The value 5.35 in this equation and the term [CO2]prein in the generalized equation demonstrate that the forcing parameter is based on the 100ppmv increase from the preindustrial value of 280ppmv and the 0.6°C of measured temperature over the time period that this 100ppmv increase occurred. 

MUST SEE: New Video on Mann-made Global Warming

New taxpayer-supported video propaganda on Global Warming was just released by the National Science Foundation, in which Michael Mann plays a prominent role. The discredited Mann hockey stick graph is shown with "hide the decline" and "Mike's Nature trick" included as a single continuous line between the tree ring and thermometer records. In answer to the question "what's unusual about the earth's warming during the past century?" Mann claims that the Medieval Warming Period and Little Ice Age (mostly erased using Mann-made statistics from his hockey stick graph) were regional only, whereas the current warming is global. Mann chooses to ignore the peer-reviewed studies of more than 800 scientists indicating that the Medieval Warming Period was global and most studies show hotter than today.

Mann also states that the models agree with observations (they don't).

Climategate: Professors Watson and Singer Debate

From climategate2009

The BBC’s Andrew Neil squares off with Professors Robert Watson and Fred Singer to discuss the theory of Mann made Global Warming and the perilous state of the IPCC under Pachauri’s mismanagement.

Go to site for additional parts

Other videos of interest: 
Goddard Data and Global Sea Ice Doesn't Fit (repetitive but he has a point)
Worldwide Cold Not Seen since '70s Ice Age Scare

US Temperature Extremes Index Plunges Below 99 Year Mean

The NOAA National Climatic Data Center US Climate Extremes Index is designed to answer

"How has the climate changed over the past 50 or more years? In what ways and by how much? Many people, including climatologists, have been struggling with these questions for some time now, not only for scientific interest, but also to aid in policy decisions (IPCC 2001) and to inform the general public. In order to answer these questions, it is important to obtain comprehensive and intuitive information which allows interested parties to understand the scientific basis for confidence, or lack thereof, in the present understanding of the climate system. One tool, first developed as a framework for quantifying observed changes in climate within the contiguous Unites States, is the U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI).

More ex-post "adjustments" to Satellite Sea-Level Altimetry

From a 2002 publication showing the Topex/Posiedon satellite altimetry sea level data for the eight years from 9/92-9/00, the global map shows stable to declining sea levels in most areas with the exception of the western Pacific, which is strongly influenced by periodic ENSO/El Nino/La Nina conditions.

The accompanying data below shows declining sea levels throughout most of the Pacific Ocean. The mean of the sea level changes (first number in each column) for each of the bands of the 3 major oceans shows a mean global sea level decrease of .4 mm/year. Yes, the bands for the 3 oceans are not the same size, but since the largest bands by far are in the Pacific Ocean and show the largest declines, the mean for the 3 oceans by area would therefore show an even greater decrease in mean sea level over the 8 year period. This is despite the fact that this period was also marked by the largest El Nino in the 20th century, which resulted in a large increase in the global mean.  

 

But that's not what the TOPEX/POSEIDON data show today, as somehow a global decrease in mean sea level evolved into a global increase of 3.1 mm/yr. This appears to be further confirmation of Dr. Nils Axel Morner's claim that the TOPEX satellite data was ex-post adjusted upward many years after the fact to show a false positive trend.  The data was further adjusted upward between 2005 and 2010 (almost 20 years after the start of the satellite record).

Related: An Analysis of TOPEX Sea Level Record

Glaciers - Science and Nonsense

Cliff Ollier* takes issue with some common misconceptions about how ice-sheets move, and doubts many pronouncements about the “collapse” of the planet’s ice sheets.

Geoscientist 20.03 March 2010

In these days of warnings about climate change, the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica play an important role. Alan Carlin wrote “Hansen et al. believe that the most likely and most critical of these dangerous effects is the possibility of substantial sea level rise due to the breakup of parts or all of the ice sheets covering Greenland and West Antarctica.” (my emphasis).

Alarm started with ‘global warming’ but since the Earth failed to warm in the past 10 years it changed to ‘climate change” and most recently to “carbon pollution.” But the most graphic scare is still of rising sea levels, so many articles continue appear describing sea level rise of many metres caused by the melting of the icesheets.

Like the original warming scares, the melting scares are based on models, and poor models at that. The commonest one is the notion that glaciers slide downhill, lubricated by meltwater, and that this can pass a threshold and lead to melting of all the icesheets and a runaway rise in sea level. The sliding hypothesis was the best available to De Saussure (1779), but we have learned a lot since then – but it has been forgotten again in many modern models.

Hansen: Urban Heat Island Effect is 0.06°C

From a 3/19/10 draft of a NASA GISS paper, Hansen & Co. find the urban heat island effect in the US to be a mere 0.06°C temperature anomaly over the entire span of 1900-2009:

Citations not cited in the report include a paper showing urban heat island effects of up to 8°C, the work of Dr. Roy Spencer, surfacestations.org (Anthony Watts & Joe D'Aleo), and others. (H/T Tom Nelson)

Spiel Climate Sister Site Launched

A fully-automated computer-model of a climate Blog about other climate Blogs

The climate blog and media news feeds have gotten unwieldy for The Hockey Schtick so there is a new fully-automated sister site SpielClimate.blogspot.com just to handle the mass of feeds. Spiel Climate has feeds from all corners of the skeptic, luke warmist, and warmist blogs and news feeds. If you are a climate junkie and don't mind the occasional item from these feeds not related to climate and the lack of any humanoid editing, then please have a look. Spiel Climate is open to suggestions for new links - just post a comment at the bottom of the page.

The Best of Recent Climategate News archives from the upper right column of The Hockey Schtick will be housed at the bottom of the page at Spiel Climate. Helpful references in this debate are also there and open to suggestions as well.

Climate Change Causing Negative Extinction in Arctic

Arctic Wildlife Index Increases 16% over last 34 years

From a paper presented today at The State of the Arctic meeting:
Tracking Trends in Arctic Wildlife: The Arctic Species Trend Index

For the first time, an index providing a pan-Arctic perspective on trends in the Arctic's living resources has been developed. The Arctic Species Trend Index (ASTI), like the global Living Planet Index (LPI), illustrates overall vertebrate population trends by integrating vertebrate population trend data of an appropriate standard from across the Arctic and over the last 34 years (1970 as the baseline). An increasing index indicates that overall more vertebrate populations in the Arctic are increasing than decreasing. Whereas a decreasing index, indicates the opposite situation.

A total of 965 populations of 306 species (representing 35% of all known arctic vertebrate species) were used to generate the ASTI. In contrast to the global LPI, whose overall decline is largely driven by declines in tropical vertebrate populations, the average population of arctic species rose by 16% between 1970 and 2004. This pattern is very similar to the temperate LPI and is consistent in both the North American and Eurasian Arctic.

Austrian Alps Glaciers Have Almost Disappeared Due to Abnormal Warmth!

(above photo from 1956 in National Geographic of the (melted) intersection of the Hintereisferner and Kesselwandferner glaciers, and photo below from August 2003)

CO2 Urban Death Domes

The NASA AIRS satellite is providing data on localized global CO2 levels, as shown in the map below for July 2009:

The map shows CO2 "hot spot" levels of 389 ppm along the coastal US and southern Europe but also hot spots in sparsely populated areas such as the middle of the Pacific Ocean, the Bering Strait, and Mongolia. But the most interesting aspect is that the difference between the CO2 concentration at the hot spots and the global mean is only 3-4 ppm, a 1% difference in concentration. Using the IPCC Climate Computer shows that this difference in CO2 levels is predicted to result in a temperature change of 0.04°C assuming the imaginary IPCC positive feedbacks, or 0.01°C not assuming the imaginary feedbacks.

°C and thereby lead to increased health effects from pollution. The press release goes on to say that CO2 should be taxed more when it is produced in cities vs. in rural areas because lowly CO2 is again being blamed as the cause of the Urban Heat Island effect. Once again, the harmless, essential, non-polluting trace gas CO2 is the wrongly convicted evil-doer because of junk science and ease of taxation. 

Arctic has still not received the memo on AGW

Arctic temperatures stable since 1958

From the Copenhagen Centre for Ocean and Ice of the Danish Meteorological Institute, which has maintained daily mean temperatures (untouched by Phil Jones & CRU) for the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel since 1958, the critical summer temperatures (the peak in the middle of the graphs) shows that the summer arctic temperatures were stable to considerably less for the summer of 2009 compared to the summer of 1959 (& 1958 and indeed most years in the record). The temperatures for the summer of 2009 were also stable to considerably less than the ~50 year mean shown in green, and at or below the critical ice melting point of 273.15K (0°C) shown in blue during the first month of the summer. Before anyone accuses me of cherry-picking, go to the DMI website yourself and look at all the graphs from 1958-2009 and you will find absolutely no increasing trend in arctic summer temperature, as is also evident from the mean shown as the green line.

(X axis is the day of the year)