Another Junk Science Article confusing UHI, AGW, and Weather

Another alarmist junk science article, Manhattan Heat Waves Sign of City Scorchers to Come, confuses the urban heat island effect (UHI), "anthropogenic" global warming (AGW), and seasonal weather to spin a tale of more frequent and intense "city scorchers to come." The article begins by correctly noting the urban heat island effect (UHI) is the reason for the increase of 10-15°F in nighttime temperatures in Manhattan compared to outlying areas. Dr. Kevin Trenberth, eternal seeker of the "missing heat," is stated to be surprised at the magnitude of this "huge" effect, and perhaps this explains why he and his colleagues have previously dismissed the findings of Anthony Watts et al at surfacestations.org. Dr. Trenberth also states, "I'd expect that all the air conditioners and such churning away would easily be 20 to 40 times greater than the global greenhouse effect." Since the claimed effect of AGW over the past century is a total of 1°F, that would mean that the urban heat island effect would easily be 20° to 40°F compared to 1°F "due to" AGW.  Nonetheless, the piece concludes, "frazzled New Yorkers can expect such heat waves to become more frequent and intense because of climate change warming." Is the hoax again being re-framed from "global warming" to "climate change" to now "climate change warming?"

LiveScience July 30, 2010 [emphasis added]:

The dog days of summer, uh, nights are here. New Yorkers living in Manhattan suffered nighttime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit higher than in New Jersey or Long Island during the first July heat wave, according to an area-wide network of sensors.

The difference arose because of Manhattan's urban heat island effect, researchers said. Energy demand, air quality, asphalt surfaces and exhaust fumes all prevent the city from cooling off as fast as the surrounding areas. The same holds for other metro areas.

These heat waves could become more frequent in cities, scientists say, mainly as a result of global warming and the increase in high-rises and other buildings.

This just in: Uncertainty of "CO2 caused" warming is twice IPCC estimates

That would mean that "unequivocal" anthropogenic global warming is no longer "unequivocal."

Just published in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL):

Uncertainties of global warming metrics: CO2 and CH4
Geophysical Research Letters by Andy Reisinger, Malte Meinshausen, Martin Manning and Greg Bodeker


Abstract: We present a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainties in the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) of CH4, using a simple climate model calibrated to AOGCMs and coupled climate-carbon cycle models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In addition, we estimate uncertainties in these metrics probabilistically by using a method that does not rely on AOGCMs but instead builds on historical constraints and uncertainty estimates of current radiative forcings. While our mean and median GWPs and GTPs estimates are consistent with previous studies, our analysis suggests that uncertainty ranges for GWPs are almost twice as large as estimated in the AR4. Relative uncertainties for GTPs are larger than for GWPs, nearly twice as high for a time horizon of 100 years. Given this uncertainty, our results imply the possibility for substantial future adjustments in best-estimate values of GWPs and in particular GTPs.

Also just in from the settled science:

Multiple episodes of Antarctica Record Warming 3-4°C Higher than Present

The settled science a.k.a. climatology is struggling to explain why ice core samples show that both Greenland and Antarctica have had multiple interglacial periods over the past several hundred thousand years during which temperatures exceeded today's "record high" temperatures by a very considerable 3-4°C, despite the global climate "control knob" a.k.a. CO2 remaining at least 30% lower than the present. The latest attempt is a paper just published, Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials:

Abstract. Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed ~300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least ~3–4 ◦C warmer than preindustrial (CO2 ~280 ppm) in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (~3000 years) and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as “Warmer than Present Transients” (WPTs). We present a series of experiments to investigate the impact of deglacial meltwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic temperature...

The paper attempts to explain this phenomenon on meltwater from Antarctic glaciers causing alterations in ocean oscillations resulting in a seesaw coupling between the Arctic and Antarctic glaciation and deglaciation, perhaps similar to what we are witnessing today as shown in the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice anomaly charts in the right column→→. I find no mention in the paper why CO2 was not a "control knob" in the past but is now, why "record higher" temperatures occurred multiple times over the past 350K years, and why the "positive feedback from decreased albedo" didn't cause the planet to spin out of control each of those times. Of course it could just be interacting Milankovitch, solar, and oceanic cycles explaining all of this and today's climate, but that would be too simple. see Occam's razor.

Temperature graph at top, temperature anomalies at right of y axis, thousands of years before present along x axis

Survival of the Fattest

What a deal: Ethanol reduces CO2 for only $754 a ton
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL JULY 26, 2010

        The best refutation of the theory of the survival of the fittest is probably the corn ethanol lobby, whose annual $6 billion in federal subsidies have managed to outlive both its record of failure and all evidence and argument. So while we doubt another devastating study will result in any natural selection, recent findings from the Congressional Budget Office deserve more attention all the same.

        CBO reveals that it costs taxpayers $1.78 in ethanol "incentives" to reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by one gallon—or nearly two-thirds of the current average retail gas price. CBO also estimates that cutting carbon emissions by one metric ton via ethanol runs to $754. To put that number in perspective, the budget gnomes estimate that the price for a ton of carbon under the cap-and-tax program that the House passed last summer would be about $26 in 2019.

Paper: Global Warming Improves Biodiversity

Several recent alarmist news reports have documented 'biodiversity" as the latest eco-scare:

• Biodiversity is next...Elite environmentalists and globalists appear to be preparing to dump global warming as their cause celebre
• 'IPCC for nature' proposed -- 'Biodiversity crisis...International body to monitor destruction of flora and fauna' -- On 'equal footing' with climate 
• Update: UN Biodiversity report 'has multiple errors in first chapter alone' (It really is 'IPCC like') 
• Tom Nelson posts 

However, a recent paper finds that back when the entire earth was like the modern tropics today, as Al Gore tells us we are headed again due to our own sins, biodiversity exploded around the entire planet, with crocodiles and palm trees in the high arctic... 

Tropical Biodiversity Explained by Steady Temperatures 
By OurAmazingPlanet Staff 25 July 2010 02:15 pm ET

        The astounding array of species that call the tropics home is the result of the near-constant year-round temperatures found in these areas, a new study suggests.
        The study, which surveyed insect diversity at a variety of latitudes and points in Earth's history, answers a question that has bugged biologists for centuries. It also shows that the exceptional biodiversity of the tropics is not a result of higher temperatures or more sunlight, as once assumed.
        The findings, detailed in the August issue of the journal Paleobiology, also suggest, intriguingly, the world is likely far less diverse today than it was tens of millions of years ago, when the entire Earth had consistent year-round temperatures, much like the modern tropics.

The Comment Dr. Roy Spencer Wouldn't Publish

There has been quite a flurry of activity over the past two days between the small band of "true skeptics" [Gerlich, Tscheuschner, Kramm, Chilingar, Sorotkin, Thieme, Siddons, Schroeder, Hertzberg, Johnson, etc] and the more numerous "lukewarm skeptics" [Spencer, Lindzen, Monckton, Watts, Pielke, etc.], perhaps triggered by Kirk Myers' newspaper article: Global warming alarmists in full retreat as skeptics attack greenhouse theory, with WUWT publishing Explaining misconceptions on the "greenhouse effect," which apparently accomplished nothing of the sort judging from the over 200 mostly critical replies. Shortly thereafter, Dr. Roy Spencer posted Yes, Virginia, Cooler Objects Can Make Warmer Objects Even Warmer Still, which also generated several negative comments. I took 10 minutes to prepare my comment below on Dr. Spencer's post, but am sad to report that after more than 8 hours, my former hero has not published my comment, despite publishing no less than 30 additional comments by himself and others timestamped AFTER my comment was sent in:



Since I took the time to carefully prepare this and didn't want the 10 minutes to go to waste, I post the comment below for anyone interested who wants to show me why it was not worthy of publication on Dr. Spencer's site:

Hockey Schtick says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
July 24, 2010 at 8:03 AM


Dr. Spencer,


Love your site and most of your skeptical approach, but have to agree with several other comments that AGW violates not only the 2nd law, but the 1st law as well. Here’s why:

Violation of the 1st law:
Assumes that GHGs can perpetually recycle IR from the earth’s surface and thereby ADD energy or work input to the system. Take a look at this University course diagram showing 239.7 W/m2 solar input, but somehow the GHGs are then capable of radiating 239.7 W/m2 BOTH UP AND DOWN FOR A TOTAL OF 479.4 W/m2!!!
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/2002Q4/211/notes_greenhouse.html


(other similar diagrams (e.g. K-T) show a TRIPLING of energy by the atmosphere!)

or look at this online “greenhouse effect” calculator from another University climatology course for another flagrant violation of the 1st law:
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/07/u-mass-hasnt-heard-of-1st-law-of.html

Violation of the 2nd Law:
Clausius formulation: “Heat DOESN’T flow from cold to hot (WITHOUT WORK INPUT)” AND “total entropy always increases until equilibrium”

AGW assumes the perpetual heat pump created by the violation of the 1st law DOES THE WORK INPUT TO MAKE HEAT FLOW FROM COLD TO HOT.

AGW also incorrectly assumes the total entropy of the system can DECREASE because from the mathematical description of entropy, if heat flows from cold to hot, entropy must locally DECREASE while the total entropy must INCREASE. Therefore, the AGW “hotspot” hasn’t happened, and won’t happen, and heat will not flow from cold to hot because the atmosphere cannot ADD WORK INPUT.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/07/why-agw-hot-spot-wont-happen.html

GHGs only slow the rate of cooling of the earth, but they cannot make the warm earth warmer.


I do hope you take a look at the posts from Professor Johnson (author of several textbooks on thermodynamics):
http://claesjohnson.blogspot.com/2010/07/roy-spencers-greenhouse-effect.html


all the best!

MUST READ: Global warming alarmists in full retreat as skeptics attack greenhouse theory

July 22, 1:27 PM    EXAMINER.COM    Environmental News    By Kirk Myers

        Sensing that their sky-is-falling theory is crumbling under scientific scrutiny, the always-insecure global warming True Believers are losing their cool, lashing out at critics with a mounting campaign of scurrilous personal attacks, impugning the motives, integrity and mental state of anyone who refuses to genuflect before the high priesthood of anthropogenic global warming (AGW).

        The latest target of the Warmists: Viscount Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, a mathematician and leading critic of the global warming theory, a.k.a. "climate change." Monckton was recently mocked and browbeaten in a 115-slide presentation by John Abraham, a professor of mechanical engineering at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota. His "hit and run" slide-show attack was an attempt to discredit a presentation that Monckton had given in St. Paul, Minnesota, in October 2009.
        Monckton replied with a powerful rebuttal that, point by point, eviscerated Abraham's embarrassingly dishonest production. Monckton called on Abraham and the university to issue a formal apology, remove the libelous presentation from the Internet, and donate $110,000 to a Haitian charity as compensation for the damage done to his reputation.

NASA Makes Another Boo-Boo

Through it's alarmist eyes, NASA's Earth Observatory looks at this global map of temperature anomalies and writes only about global heat waves, and somehow misses the more extant global cooling waves:

The Global "heat wave" phenomenon

But, at least they finally acknowledged (thanks to skeptical protests!) a part of their boo-boo, admitting in the fine print of their updated version of the alarmist piece:

Correction: This post originally stated the early July 2010 heat wave was a "global phenomenon." We have revised to make our meaning more precise: many places around the globe experienced heat waves in early July.

Still waiting on a forthcoming even more precise correction "many more places around the globe experienced cold waves in early July"

Skeptic Magazine Reviews Alarmist Book

Skeptic Magazine review by James N. Gardner of The Flooded Earth: Our Future in a World Without Ice Caps
        IS ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING the cataclysmic threat that Al Gore and the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change proclaim it to be? Or do powerful natural forces like variable solar output, plate tectonics, and volcanic activity dwarf the climate impact of human-generated greenhouse gases?

Schizophrenic EPA wants more biofuels to cut greenhouse emissions while raising them

Headline today: U.S. Government Mandates 800,000,000 Gallons of Biodiesel by Next Year: 

 "Could cut greenhouse gas emissions by 86 percent"

"Keeping in line with the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) revealed that it will need 800 million gallons of biodiesel in the United States domestic market in 2011.

The EISA "expanded" the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2), which has volume requirements for Biomass-based Diesel, undifferentiated Advanced Biofuels and Cellulosic Biofuels. Biodiesel is the only commercially accepted U.S.-made Advanced Biofuel that fits the description of an undifferentiated Advanced Biofuel and Biomass-based diesel, and it can cut greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 86 percent when made from animal fats, agricultural oils, and waste greases.

End of the road for Greenhouse Gas Theory: Bogus Budget Busted

Shocking new statistical error uncovered in NASA’s Earth Energy Budget equations: global warming numbers are incorrect not by factor of two, but three times over


By John O'Sullivan at Johnosullivan.livejournal.com {newly updated}


Long-time greenhouse gas theory denier, Alan Siddons, has done it again in exposing NASA’s climate change fraud. In an earlier article I reported how the former radio-chemist had uncovered a bogus ‘X-Factor’ in the Earth Energy Budget equations, or ‘Kiehl-Trenberth diagram’ (K-T). The K-T equations are the foundation of environmentalist claims that emissions from burning fossil fuels are raising global temperatures.


That article illustrated how, since 1997, NASA got away with double counting the ‘up and down’ heating effect of carbon dioxide by using the K-T calculations to exaggerate the heating effect of carbon dioxide by a factor of two.


Fallacy of the Perpetual Motion Heat Engine


What I sought to explain in my earlier article was that alarmist climatologists were suggesting that from the 168Wm-2 of heat received by our planet’s surface there comes an ‘up and down’ re-radiation so that half is always being ‘back radiated’ again to Earth’s surface.
Thus from 168Wm-2 would come a further 84Wm-2; from that in turn comes back radiated a further 42Wm-2, etc., etc. Thus the notion of ‘trapped’ atmospheric heat was born. Yet, as numerous highly qualified independent scientists have pointed out (e.g. Charles Anderson PhD, Professor Claes Johnson, physicists Gerhard Gerlich and Ralph Tscheuschner , etc., etc.) such a cyclical re-heating effect is against the laws of physics. Such experts dismiss the entire hypothesis as an impossible perpetual motion heat engine better suited to the realms of science fiction.

Simplified Illustration of the K-T Earth Energy Budget

However, not satisfied with leaving the debunkery at that, Siddons perused the numbers again after reading my last tome, 'Kitchen Colander Proves Greenhouse Gas Theory Won't Hold Water,' The eagle-eyed researcher soon spotted a flaw in my calculations; I had under-estimated the full extent of Trenberth’s (and thereafter, NASA’s) factoring errors.

EIA Analysis: American Power Act creates $2.7 Trillion Hit on US Economy

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has just released it's analysis of the Kerry Lieberman "American Power Act" a.k.a. Cap & Tax Bill, and projects a stunning $2.7 trillion blow to the struggling US economy under the (likely) scenario of limited international implementation of similar cap & tax proposals. 


Energy Market and Economic Impacts of the American Power Act of 2010:


"The APA increases the cost of using energy, which reduces real economic output, reduces purchasing power, and lowers aggregate demand for goods and services. The result is that real GDP generally falls relative to the Reference case. [the "Reference case" is no American Power Act] In the Reference case, GDP rises 92 percent, from $14.3 trillion in 2008 to $27.4 trillion in 2035. Total present value⁵ GDP losses over the 2013-2035 time period are $452 billion (-0.2 percent) in the Basic case, with a range from $381 billion (-0.1 percent) to $1.1 trillion (-0.4 percent) in five of the six cases. The present value GDP losses over the same time period are larger in the Limited/No International case, reaching $2.7 trillion"

Miskolczi's Death Knell on the Greenhouse Theory

Former NASA physicist Ferenc Miskolczi's new peer-reviewed paper places a well-deserved death knell on the crumbling greenhouse gas theory of man-made global warming, stating:

The data negate increase in CO2 in the atmosphere as a hypothetical cause for the apparently observed global warming. A hypothesis of significant positive feedback by water vapor effect on atmospheric infrared absorption is also negated by the observed measurements. Apparently major revision of the physics underlying the greenhouse effect is needed.

Miskolczi's analysis of 61 years of data shows that there has been no change in the infrared "heat-trapping" ability of IR-active "greenhouse gases" over the period, in stark contrast to claims of the "greenhouse effect" that "heat-trapping" should increase in direct relation to the concentration of "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. Since the concentration of CO2 has steadily risen over the 61 year period, while the imaginary "heat-trapping" has not, the theory of anthropogenic global warming is empirically falsified.

Dr. Roy Spencer: open to possibility a major error may have been made on CO2 causing warming

In a new highly recommended post today by Dr. Roy Spencer he states, "Adding more [CO2] “should” cause warming, with the magnitude of that warming being the real question. But I’m still open to the possibility that a major error has been made on this fundamental point. Stranger things have happened in science before."  

Might the "possible major errors" be violations of the 1st and 2nd laws of thermodynamics? Also today, see the new posts by Professor of Applied Mathematics Claes Johnson, author of several books on thermodynamics, illustrating the errors of climate science of imaginary "back radiation" and "radiative forcing." Also today, see John O'Sullivan's new post "End of the road for Greenhouse Gas Theory : Bogus Budget Busted"
 
My Global Warming Skepticism, for Dummies
July 17th, 2010 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

A Climate Absolution?

More like a 160-page evasion of the real issues that confront global-warming science.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL JULY 16, 2010

The latest study purporting to absolve the scientists involved in November's Climategate scandal was published last week. On predictable cue, the news was followed by a letter from our admirers at the United Nations Foundation and the Natural Resources Defense Council urging us to "set the record straight" on "these bogus scandals." Having devoted considerable space to Climategate, we're happy to explain why we can't do that.

U Mass hasn't heard of 1st Law of Thermodynamics

To help understand why the overwhelming "consensus" of climatologists believe that IR active "greenhouse" gases are warming the planet, it is helpful to visit one of America's top universities, the University of Massachusetts, to check on what the climatology professors are teaching future climatologists. U Mass has kindly provided us with this "greenhouse effect" calculator used in their climatology course to help answer homework questions. The calculator allows you to dial in the essential "greenhouse effect" parameters of solar input, albedo (reflection - primarily from clouds), and the percentage of [unphysical] "back radiation" to calculate the temperature of any planet with a "greenhouse effect" :

Let's use this handy calculator to create our own test of the "greenhouse effect," assuming an Al Gore apocalyptic scenario of the earth's atmosphere [currently 0.0389% CO2] having a greenhouse gas concentration so high that the atmosphere becomes a perfect "back-radiator" of heat from the earth and doesn't let any heat at all escape to space, but still lets the solar energy in. We use the default values for solar input of 1367 Wm-2, albedo of 31%, and set back radiation at 100% (.999) rather than the default 39.7%, and observe that the average temperature of the earth rises to 1428.05°K, or 2111°F. Now 2111°F is pretty hot, in fact aluminum melts at 1220°F, magnesium at 1200°F, and steel at 2600°F. Amazing that the "greenhouse gases" can accomplish this while ideal laboratory conditions cannot. The maximum laboratory temperatures that could be obtained with a laboratory blackbody which absorbs nearly all incoming radiation is given by the Stefan-Boltzmann equation, which tells us the maximum temperature with the same inputs would be 359.11°K or 186.72°F. Hmmm, that's less by a factor of 11 than what greenhouse gases can supposedly achieve according to U Mass. The greenhouse hypothesis makes a self-contradictory claim that back-radiation causes a body to EXCEED the blackbody limit, even though a laboratory blackbody EPITOMIZES the effect of back-radiation.

I'm pretty sure that if you tried this at home, with ten 100 Watt light bulbs mounted on a mirror 1 meter square to provide 1000 Wm-2 heat input (analogous to solar input of 1367 Wm-2 minus 31% albedo = 943 Wm-2), hung this contraption a bit above the earth and facing downwards, that the earth's surface temperature would rise less than to 2111°F. Or just stand up and point a 1000W hair blower down at your foot; I did and my foot is fine. I'm also pretty sure that if you did the Siddons mirror example, you would not find that the mirror makes the spot on the wall brighter by a factor of 11 (actual amount is zero).

Why such an absurd result from UMass? It's because greenhouse theory ignores the conservation of energy demanded by the 1st law of thermodynamics by assuming our atmosphere is one giant perpetual heat engine "back radiating" heat energy from colder "greenhouse gases" to the earth, causing it to warm up far beyond the solar input, and rinse, cycle, repeat...global calamity. It also ignores the 2nd law of thermodynamics by assuming a cold body ('greenhouse gases") can warm a hot body (earth).

These errors in basic 19th century physics continue to be promulgated at U Mass and indeed most everywhere else. The "beauty" of the greenhouse theory is that it has two major fudge factors to play with: albedo (which is poorly understood and difficult to measure) and unphysical % "back radiation." By assigning arbitrary values to these two fudge factors one can program a computer model that looks like it agrees with global temperatures and thus bamboozle most scientists and the public, while hiding a perpetual motion machine (heat pump) inside. These science fiction theatrics do not warrant the waste of billion$ to enrich the likes of Al Gore & George Soros to the detriment of the rest of humanity.

For papers reflecting the actual physics of the atmosphere, see the Gerlich & Tscheuschner papers and this non-technical summary. See also the Chilingar et al paper.

Maybe someday folks will discover why the Cascading Oven from former atmospheric scientist Jim Peden never sells:

Hansen Maintains Title of Leading Alarmist

James Hansen of NASA/GISS, the world's leading climate alarmist, maintains his title with the new draft of his paper "Global Surface Temperature Change," concluding "global temperature continued to rise rapidly in the past decade, despite large year to year fluctuations associated with the El Nino-La Nina cycle of tropical ocean temperature. Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010."


This conclusion is based entirely upon Hansen's own NASA/GISS ("gisstemp") data of surface measurements without adequate coverage of the poles and much of the oceans (which are extrapolated from temperatures up to thousands of miles away) and which have repeatedly been shown to be inappropriately "adjusted" and biased by urban heat island effects. Furthermore, NASA has admitted in climategate emails that their data is inferior to and partly based upon the other global surface temperature data from the infamous Phil Jones ("Hadcrut" data), who has admitted he's not so good at record keeping.


The other global temperature records are the 2 satellite records ("RSS" and "UAH"), which have much more complete coverage of the earth and generally track each other closely. Now lets compare what each of these data sets have shown since the 1998 El Nino (the only time during the past 12 years all 4 data sets were in close agreement). Hansen's data is shown in red at the top as the only global data set which can "claim" "record high global temperature ...in 2010." All three of the other data sets show cooling since the 1998 El Nino, a phenomenon completely unexpected from the computer models of the "greenhouse" effect. 

Hansen's paper admits (top of p. 20) that they "have not yet attempted to integrate" satellite data into their global data set [Hmmm wonder why?]. Which data do you believe - that of ideologue James Hansen, who wants to rid the world of industrial civilization, or that of both satellites, or even Phil Jones?