WSJ: "The climate-refugee prediction isn't the first global warming-related claim that has turned out to be laughable"

Climate Refugees, Not Found

REVIEW & OUTLOOK  APRIL 21, 2011 WSJ.com
Discredited by reality, the U.N.'s prophecies go missing.

In 2005, the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) published a color-coded map under the headline "Fifty million climate refugees by 2010." The primary source for the prediction was a 2005 paper by environmental scientist Norman Myers.

Six years later, this flood of refugees is nowhere to be found, global average temperatures are about where they were when the prediction was made—and the U.N. has done a vanishing act of its own, wiping the inconvenient map from its servers.

The map, which can still be found elsewhere on the Web, disappeared from the program's site sometime after April 11, when Gavin Atkins asked on AsianCorrespondent.com: "What happened to the climate refugees?" It's now 2011 and, as Mr. Atkins points out, many of the locales that the map identified as likely sources of climate refugees are "not only not losing people, they are actually among the fastest growing regions in the world."

The program's spokesman tells us the map vanished because "it's not a UNEP prediction. . . . that graphic did not represent UNEP views and was an oversimplification of UNEP views." He added that the program would like to publish a clarification, now that journalists are "making hay of it," except that the staffers able to do so are "all on holiday for Easter."

The climate-refugee prediction isn't the first global warming-related claim that has turned out to be laughable, and everyone can make mistakes. More troubling is the impulse among some advocates of global warming alarmism to assert in the face of contrary evidence that they never said what they definitely said before the evidence went against them.


These columns have asked for some time how anyone can still manage to take the U.N.-led climate crowd seriously. Maybe the more pertinent question is whether the climateers have ever taken the public's intelligence seriously.

Farewell to Dr. Noor van Andel

According to the climategate.nl blog, Dr. Noor van Andel, a Netherlands prominent skeptic of anthropogenic global warming, died yesterday. Dr. van Andel's papers showing climate changes are not caused by greenhouse gases are featured here and a farewell tribute is here.

Volt-killer: Ford's 80 MPG new car

• 

• Focus ECOnetic: Ford’s 80-MPG car?

Ford Motor Co.

Ford Focus ECOnetic.

Ford Motor Co. says it will unveil a special high-fuel-mileage version of the Focus compact car next week at the Amsterdam Motor Show. While the car, called the Focus ECOnetic, is designed for the European market it is bound to attract the attention of U.S drivers who increasingly consider fuel economy a priority.

The car maker says the new model combines many fuel saving technologies that are expected to make it the most fuel-efficient compact car on the European market, including gasoline-, diesel- and hybrid-powered vehicles.

Indeed, if Ford’s estimates of about 80 miles per gallon are accurate, the car will use less fuel than many motorcycles and scooters.

Ford says it expects the ECOnetic’s 1.6-liter diesel engine to consume use less than 3.5 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers, which is how they measure mileage in Europe. On my conversion charts that comes out to about 67 miles per gallon. Ford says it expects 80 mpg. Industry experts including officials at Ford say differences in the way cars are tested for fuel economy in the U.S. and Europe can make the results of conversion charts inaccurate.

Either way, though, the ECOnetic’s fuel economy would exceed that of hybrid cars and even many two-wheel vehicles sold in the U.S.

To boost fuel economy the car uses a long list of features that each increase efficiency by small increments. They range from an aerodynamic body, diesel engine with high-pressure fuel injection and special gearing, to tires and transmission oil designed to reduce rolling resistance and mechanical friction.

The Ford also has an automatic stop-start system that turns the engine off when the car is stopped at a traffic light or in other situations where extended idling would waste fuel. Regenerative charging uses braking energy to help charge the battery. A driver-information system called Eco Mode monitors driving styles and gives drivers advice on how they could save more fuel by driving more efficiently.

Ford says the car will arrive in dealer showrooms (in Europe, not U.S.) early next year. It will be available as a five-door hatchback or station wagon.

Plus it will likely sell for about half the cost of a Chevy Volt 

When Scientists Confuse Cause and Effect

excerpt from Matt Ridley in the Wall Street Journal 4/16/11:

Even climate science has encountered cause-effect confusion. When in 1999 Antarctic ice cores revealed carbon-dioxide concentrations and temperature marching in lockstep over 400,000 years, many—including me— found this a convincing argument for attributing past climate change to carbon dioxide. (About 95% of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is natural, coming from the exhalations of living things. In the past, carbon-dioxide levels rose as the earth warmed at the end of ice ages and fell as it cooled at the end of interglacial periods.)

Then four years later came clear evidence from finer-grained analysis of ice cores that temperature changes preceded carbon-dioxide changes by at least 800 years. Effects cannot precede their causes by eight centuries, so temperatures must drive carbon dioxide, chiefly by warming the sea and causing carbon dioxide dissolved in water to "out-gas" into the air.

Climate scientists fell back on a "feedback" hypothesis, arguing that an initial change, probably caused by variations in the earth's orbit that affect the warmth of the sun, was then amplified by changes in carbon-dioxide levels. But this made the attribution argument circular and left the reversal of the trend after a period of warming (when amplification should be at its strongest) still harder to explain. If carbon dioxide is still driving the temperature upward but it falls instead, then other factors must be stronger than expected.

Some climate scientists see cause-effect confusion at the heart of climate modeling. Roy Spencer of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration argues from satellite data that the conventional view has one thing backward. Changes in cloud cover are often seen as consequences of changes in temperature. But what if the amount of cloud cover changes spontaneously, for reasons still unclear, and then alters the temperature of the world by reflecting or absorbing sunlight? That is to say, the clouds would be more cause than consequence. Not many agree with Mr. Spencer, but it is an intriguing idea.

Revkin of NYT takes back his statement that skeptics are more knowledgeable about the science

Tom Nelson featured a surprising quote from warmist/alarmist Andrew Revkin of the New York Times in the article Climate, Communication and the ‘Nerd Loop’:

The last link is particularly important, given that it shows, among other things, that those dismissing human-driven global warming tend to have a more accurate picture of the basic science than those alarmed by it.

The quote has since disappeared, now replaced by:

10:46 p.m. | Updated I’ve removed a line I’d tacked on here that gave too simplistic a summary of the Six Amercias [sic] study. 

The Yale University Six Americas study in fact states in the Executive Summary on page 4:

...this study also found that for some knowledge questions the Doubtful and Dismissive [skeptics of man-made global warming] have as good an understanding, and in some cases better, than the Alarmed and Concerned.

see the report for specific examples.

Another blow to warmist theory: Decreasing radiation from greenhouse gases

The anthropogenic global warming theory is based upon the notion that increasing 'greenhouse gases' will increase infrared 'back-radiation' to the earth to [supposedly] warm the planet. The theory also claims that increases in the minor 'greenhouse gas' carbon dioxide will cause increases in the major 'greenhouse gas' water vapor to amplify the infrared 'back-radiation' and global warming. A study published online yesterday in The Journal of Climate, however, finds that contrary to the global warming theory, infrared 'back-radiation' from greenhouse gases has declined over the past 14 years in the US Southern Great Plains in winter, summer, and autumn. If the anthropogenic global warming theory was correct, the infrared 'back-radiation' should have instead increased year-round over the past 14 years along with the steady rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide. 

Journal of Climate 2011 ; e-View
doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4210.1

Long-Term Trends in Downwelling Spectral Infrared Radiance over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

P. Jonathan Gero, Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin

David D. Turner, NOAA / National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin

Abstract: A trend analysis was applied to a 14-year time series of downwelling spectral infrared radiance observations from the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) located at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The highly accurate calibration of the AERI instrument, performed every 10 minutes, ensures that any statistically significant trend in the observed data over this time can be attributed to changes in the atmospheric properties and composition, and not to changes in the sensitivity or responsivity of the instrument. The measured infrared spectra, numbering over 800,000, were classified as clear-sky, thin cloud, and thick cloud scenes using a neural network method. The AERI data record demonstrates that the downwelling infrared radiance is decreasing over this 14-year time period in the winter, summer, and autumn seasons but is increasing in the spring; these trends are statistically significant and are primarily due to long-term change in the cloudiness above the site. The AERI data also show many statistically significant trends on annual, seasonal, and diurnal time scales, with different trend signatures identified in the separate scene classifications. Given the decadal time span of the dataset, effects from natural variability should be considered in drawing broader conclusions. Nevertheless, this data set has high value due to the ability to infer possible mechanisms for any trends from the observations themselves, and to test the performance of climate models.

New material posted on the NIPCC website

Sea Level Rise Around Mainland Australia (12 Apr 2011)

Although the four data sets employed in this study all show short-term accelerations in sea level rise near the end of the 20th century, the century as a whole was one of decelerating sea level rise, which is not exactly in harmony with the climate-alarmist contention that the 20th century experienced a warming that rose at a rate and to a height that were both unprecedented over the past millennium or more ... Read More

The Carbon Sink of an Old-Growth Forest in China (12 Apr 2011)

The old notion of old trees contributing next to nothing to global carbon sequestration is manifestly invalid ... Read More

Excess Winter Mortality in Various Developed Countries and Its Implications for Mitigation Policies (12 Apr 2011)

A general warming may reduce mortality and extend life expectancies, at least in the temperate and higher latitudes ... Read More

The Response of High Arctic Tundra to Long-Term Warming (12 Apr 2011)

Long-term warming in the High Arctic will likely enhance plant cover ... Read More

Tropical Cyclones of the North Indian Ocean (13 Apr 2011)

Results suggest a “decreasing trend in the frequency of storms over the Bay of Bengal, contrary to the popular belief that there will be an increase” ... Read More

Evolutionary Responses of a C3 Perennial Herb to Elevated CO2 (13 Apr 2011)

Both “phenotypic and genetic differences have occurred between high and normal CO2 populations” ... Read More

Snowfall and Snowstorms are Not Decreasing as Predicted by Climate Projections (13 Apr 2011)

Since 2007 heavy snowstorms and all-time seasonal records for stations and the Northern Hemisphere have challenged the predictions by the IPCC, NOAA CCSP, the Hadley Center/UKMO and environmental groups like the Union of Concerned Scientists that snowfall and snowstorms were growing increasingly rare and extent was declining. An analysis of pace and time distribution of winter storms by Changnon in 2008, NOAA weekly snow extent data from satellite as compiled by Rutgers Snow Lab and an objective snowstorm index developed by NOAA NCDC gives us a chance to test that hypothesis ... Read More

Precipitation Events in Northern New England, USA (13 Apr 2011)

Are they becoming more extreme? ... Read More

Coral Disease in a Warmer World (13 Apr 2011)

Researchers emphasize “the need to move away from projections based on historic trends toward predictions that account for novel behavior of ecosystems under climate change” ... Read More

The Green Energy Economy Reconsidered

Forbes.com  BY Jerry Taylor and Peter Van Doren 04.25.11

"Green" energy, such as wind, solar and biomass, presently constitutes only 3.6% of fuel used to generate electricity in the U.S. But if another "I Have a Dream" speech were given at the base of the Lincoln Memorial, it would undoubtedly urge us on to a promised land where renewable energy replaced fossil fuels and nuclear power.

How much will this particular dream cost? Energy expert Vaclav Smil calculates that achieving that goal in a decade--former Vice President Al Gore's proposal--would incur building costs and writedowns on the order of $4 trillion. Taking a bit more time to reach this promised land would help reduce that price tag a bit, but simply building the requisite generators would cost $2.5 trillion.

Let's assume, however, that we could afford it. Have we ever seen such a "green economy"? Yes, we have--in the 13th century.

Renewable energy is quite literally the energy of yesterday. We abandoned "green" energy centuries ago for five very good reasons.

First, green energy is diffuse, and it takes a tremendous amount of land and material to harness even a little bit of energy. Jesse Ausubel, director of the Program for the Human Environment and senior research associate at Rockefeller University, calculates, for instance, that the entire state of Connecticut (that is, if Connecticut were as windy as the southeastern Colorado plains) would need to be devoted to wind turbines to power the city of New York.

Second, it is extremely costly. In 2016, according to President Obama's own Energy Information Administration estimates, onshore wind (the least expensive of these green energies) will be 80% more expensive than combined-cycle, gas-fired electricity. And that doesn't account for the costs associated with the hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of new transmission systems that would be needed to get wind and solar energy--which is generally produced far from where consumers happen to live--to ratepayers.

Third, it is unreliable. The wind doesn't always blow and the sun doesn't always shine when the energy is needed. We account for that today by having a lot of coal and natural gas generation on "standby" to fire up when renewables can't produce. But in a world where fossil fuels are a thing of the past, we would be forced--like the peasants of the Dark Ages--to rely upon the vagaries of the weather.

Fourth, it is scarce. While wind and sunlight are obviously not scarce, the real estate where those energies are reliably continuous and in economic proximity to ratepayers is scarce.

Finally, once the electricity is produced by the sun or wind, it cannot be stored because battery technology is not currently up to the task. Hence, we must immediately "use it or lose it."

Fossil fuels are everything that green energy is not. They are comparatively cheap. They are reliable; they will burn and produce energy whenever you want it. They are plentiful (we use only a tiny bit of oil in the electricity sector). And you can store fossil fuels until you need them.

Proponents of green energy argue that if the government can put a man on the moon, it can certainly make green energy economically attractive. Well, notice that the government was not trying to get a man to the moon profitably, which is more akin to the challenge here. Even before the Obama presidency began, about half the production costs of wind and solar energy were underwritten by the taxpayer to no commercial avail. There's little reason to think that a more sustained, multidecade commitment to subsidy would play out any differently. After all, the federal government once promised that nuclear energy was on the cusp of being "too cheap to meter." That was in the 1950s. Sixty-one billion dollars of subsidies and impossible-to-price regulatory preferences later, it's still the most expensive source of conventional energy on the grid.

The fundamental question that green energy proponents must answer is this: If green energy is so inevitable and such a great investment, why do we need to subsidize it? If and when renewable energy makes economic sense, profit-hungry investors will build all that we need for us without government needing to lift a finger. But if it doesn't make economic sense, all the subsidies in the world won't change that fact.

Taylor and Van Doren are senior fellows at the Cato Institute

David Evans and Jo Nova at the Perth anti-carbon tax rally

Scathing satire meets intelligent investigative analysis. Joanne Nova's speech at the 23 March 2011 "Carbon Tax" Protest in Perth is a must-watch.

Enjoy...!

The text of Jo's speech can be found on her excellent website here:

http://joannenova.com.au/2011/03/we-are-being-deceived/#more-14004



Few would have the credibility of this man on this topic. Dr. Evans was the leading modeler of climate change for the Australian Greenhouse Office.

The full text of his speech can be found here:

http://joannenova.com.au/2011/03/david-evans-carbon-modeler-says-its-a-scam/

from http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2011/04/david-evans-and-jo-nova-at-perth-anti.html

New material posted on the NIPCC website

All Coral Bleaching Is Not Bad (5 Apr 2011)

We must “move beyond the most common perception that discolored corals are always less healthy,” because “nonlethal (and arguably sublethal) bleaching events are part of a natural rhythm that enables corals to successfully respond to environmental variability” ... Read More

Global Warming and Tropical Cyclones of the Western North Pacific (5 Apr 2011)

In spite of a “remarkable warming,” the authors of this study determined that “the frequency of TC against the background of global warming has decreased with time” ... Read More

CO2-Related Genotypic Variation in White Spruce (5 Apr 2011)

Observations suggest that highly-CO2-responsive genotypes of a wide variety of earth’s plants -- from food crops to lumber crops -- could well be selected to take advantage of their genetic ability to optimize their growth in response to projected future increases in the air’s CO2 content ... Read More

Nine Centuries of Warm-Season Temperatures in West-Central Scandinavia (5 Apr 2011)

Contrary to the worn-out claim of the world’s climate alarmists that the high temperatures of the past couple of decades have been unprecedented relative to those of the past couple of millennia, this impressive April-September temperature reconstruction from west-central Scandinavia tells a much different story for this particular part of the world ... Read More

Growth Responses of Populus euphratica Trees to Concomitant Changes in Groundwater Depth and Atmospheric CO2 Content (5 Apr 2011)

As groundwater depth declines and riparian trees find it more difficult to obtain the water they need to survive, are the positive effects atmospheric CO2 enrichment enhanced or diminished? ... Read More

Humans Are Destroying Earth’s Coral Reefs (5 Apr 2011)

But not in the way climate alarmists want us to believe ... Read More

Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment and the Growth of Corn Under Various Degrees of Water Stress (5 Apr 2011)

Under increased CO2 concentrations, “less water will be required for corn plants than at present.” And since water is already a scarce commodity in many parts of the world -- and will only become more scarce, more expensive and more difficult to obtain in the days and years ahead -- this finding is extremely welcome news ... Read More

Model Assessments of Warming-Induced Changes in the Frequency of Northern Hemisphere Summer Cyclones (6 Apr 2011)

Projections obtained from sixteen state-of-the-art climate models show “little consistency,” indicating that “care is required when interpreting projected changes in summer weather systems” ... Read More

Alaskan Trumpeter Swans in a Warming World (6 Apr 2011)

How did they respond to the increase in temperature experienced between 1968 and 2005? ... Read More

The Terrestrial Carbon Balance of East Asia (6 Apr 2011)

Between 1901 and 2002, modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP) “significantly increased by 5.5-8.5 Tg C per year (15-20% growth),” and this increase in NPP “caused an increased cumulated terrestrial carbon storage of about 5-11 Pg C,” about 50-70% of which “is located in vegetation biomass.” And, “40-60% of the accumulated carbon uptake of the 20th century is credited to the period of 1980-2002" ... Read More

Are Economic Losses from Extreme Weather Events Increasing? (6 Apr 2011)

Not according to the results of this new study ... Read More

Black Carbon at the Top of the World (6 Apr 2011)

Reducing biofuel sources of black carbon emissions may be an extremely worthy goal ... Read More

The 1470-Year Climate Oscillation of the North Pacific Gyre (6 Apr 2011)

How does it compare with the 1500-year-repeatable Bond events of the North Atlantic? ... Read More

Antarctic ice sheet growing from above and below

excerpt from nature Climate Change 4/11, no free link available

Gavin still doesn't understand science

Gavin Schmidt of NASA/GISS quoted in the new issue of Nature Climate Change (4/11) states, "Of all the things that I can do that are important, is allowing reproducibility of my code on somebody else's computer important? No, that's not important."

Gavin has apparently learned nothing about reproducibility and the scientific method from McIntyre, McKitrick, and climategate.


Excerpt from article "Data on Demand," unfortunately no free link available.

How scientific is climate science?

What is arguably the most important reason to doubt global warming can be explained in plain English.

By DOUGLAS J. KEENAN  WSJ.com

For years, some researchers have argued that the evidence for global warming is not nearly as strong as has been officially claimed. The details of the arguments are often technical. As a result, policy makers and other people outside the debate have relied on the pronouncements of a group of climate scientists. I think that is unnecessary. I believe that what is arguably the most important reason to doubt global warming can be explained in terms that most people can understand.

Consider the graph of global temperatures in Figure 1, which uses data from NASA. At first, it might seem obvious that the graph shows an increase in temperatures. In fact the story is more involved.

Imagine tossing a coin ten times. If the coin came up Heads each time, we would have very significant evidence that the coin was not a fair coin. Suppose instead that the coin was tossed only three times. If the coin came up Heads each time, we would not have significant evidence that the coin was unfair: Getting Heads three times can reasonably occur just by chance.

View figures here

In Figures 2 and 3, each graph has three segments, one segment for each toss of a coin. If the coin came up Heads, then the segment slopes upward; if it came up Tails, then it slopes downward. In Figure 2, the graph on the far left illustrates tossing Heads, Tails, Heads; the middle graph illustrates Tails, Heads, Tails; and the last graph illustrates Heads, Tails, Tails. Figure 3 illustrates Heads, Heads, Heads.

Three Heads is not significant evidence for anything other than random chance occurring. A statistician would say that although the graph shows an increase, the increase is "not significant."

Suppose now that instead of tossing coins, we roll ordinary six-sided dice. We will roll each die three times. If a die comes up 1, we will draw a line segment downward; if it comes up 6, the segment is drawn upward; and if it comes up 2, 3, 4 or 5, the segment is drawn straight across. Figure 4 gives some examples of possible outcomes.

Greenpeace co-founder: 'Global warming is obviously a natural phenomenon'

Patrick Moore, a co-founder of Greenpeace and author of the new book, Confessions of a Greenpeace Dropout: The Making of a Sensible Environmentalist, states in the interview below, "we do not have any scientific proof that we are the cause of global warming." Moore also explains how the green movement has been co-opted by the political left and has come to support policies which are harmful for the environment and humanity.


Excerpt from debate published in the Vancouver Sun:

Patrick Moore: ...Fluctuations in climate are not “routine”. It is true that there has been an upward trend in global temperature since about 1800 when the Little Ice Age ended. There have been ups and downs along the way. As you know the last upward trend was between 1970-1998. Since then there has been no further rise in temperature, perhaps a slight decline. That is all I said.

The main point is that neither you nor I know with any certainty what will happen next. What goes up tends to eventually come down as has been the case with global climate from the beginning of life. I personally believe that it would be much better in balance if the temperature rose 2°-3°C than if it fell 2°-3°C. “You should know the difference” is condescending. And despite all this it still doesn’t prove that we are responsible for the recent rise in temperature. Temperature has been rising and falling for billions of years and it had nothing to do with us.

Then what does it take to “stop” a trend? What caused the present Ice Age to set on 2.5 million years ago? And what caused the wild fluctuations of massive glaciations that have come and gone many times since then? Were these “routine fluctuations”? Do you believe that CO2 and other greenhouse gasses are always the main factors that cause the climate to change?

Part of the “prevailing data” is that it hasn’t continued to warm over the past decade despite ever-increasing emissions of CO2.

Physicist: Carbon dioxide has negligible effect on climate

Semi-retired physicist Dr. Daniel M. Sweger has been a research scientist at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, where he was active in a variety of research areas, including cryogenic thermometry, solid state and nuclear physics, and molecular spectroscopy.

Dr. Sweger's new paper, Earth’s Climate Engine (PDF), finds that if carbon dioxide has any effect on climate, it must be negligible. Instead, he finds on the basis of data and theory that water vapor is the dominant influence on climate, and its influence is the opposite of that assumed by the IPCC climate computer models.

From the Executive Summary:

… While models can be useful, the results must be compared to actual measurements, i.e. data. Data is the language of science, but little has been done in that regard with the climate change models.

It is the premise of the author that water vapor is the dominant influence in determining and understanding global climate. Water vapor is much more abundant in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, and its physical properties make it more important as well. During daylight hours it moderates the sun’s energy, at night it acts like a blanket to slow the loss of heat, and it carries energy from the warm parts of the earth to the cold. Compared to that, if carbon dioxide has any effect it must be negligible. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of water vapor on climate.

Detailed calculations and analysis of data from several locations clearly demonstrate that the effect of water vapor on temperature dominates any proposed effect of carbon dioxide. Furthermore, it is clear from the data presented that water vapor acts with a negative feedback on temperature, not a positive one. That is, the data demonstrate that increasing the level of water vapor in the atmosphere results in a decrease of temperature, not an increase as predicted by the climate models. In essence, atmospheric water vapor acts as a thermostat.

These results call into question the validity of using the results of the current general climate change models, particularly as the basis for policy decision making.

SOURCE

Paper: Biofuel policies led to 192,000 deaths & increased disease in developing countries

Could Biofuel Policies Increase Death and Disease in Developing Countries?

Indur M. Goklany, Ph.D.

ABSTRACT: Higher global demand for biofuels, driven mainly by policies in industrialized countries  with the stated  purpose  of enhancing energy independence and retarding  climate change, has contributed to rising global food prices. As a consequence, more people in developing countries suffer from both chronic hunger and absolute  poverty. Hunger and poverty are major contributors to death  and disease in poorer  countries. Results derived from World Bank and World Health Organization (WHO) studies suggest  that for every million people  living in absolute poverty in developing countries, there are annually at least 5,270 deaths and 183,000 Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost to disease.  Combining  these   estimates   with  estimates   of  the increase in poverty owing to growth in biofuels production over 2004 levels leads to the conclusion that additional biofuel production may have resulted in at least 192,000 excess deaths and  6.7 million additional  lost DALYs  in 2010. These exceed WHO’s estimated annual toll of 141,000 deaths  and 5.4 million lost DALYs attributable to global warming. Thus, policies intended to mitigate global warming may actually have increased death and disease in developing countries.

New material posted on the NIPCC website

Sea Level Rise by the End of the 21st Century (29 Mar 2011)

Evidence points to the absence of tide-gauge data supporting any acceleration in the SL rise trend of the past century. This calls into question the many projections of rates of rise above this trend, which would be required for larger projected total increases due to AGW ... Read More

Changes in Snowfall in the Southern Sierra Nevada of California Since 1916 (29 Mar 2011)

The supposedly unprecedented 20th century rise in air temperature has had no measurable effect on Sierra Nevada snowfall at Huntington Lake ... Read More

Will Burning Fossil Fuels Reduce Baltic Cod Reproduction Rates? (29 Mar 2011)

In a word, no ... Read More

Global Warming May Reduce the Risk of Heart Attacks in the United Kingdom (29 Mar 2011)

Cold temperatures have a far greater ability to increase the risk of myocardial infarction than warm temperatures ... Read More

Global Warming and Urban Heat Islands (29 Mar 2011)

“Urban warming can be a biasing factor that may contaminate data used for monitoring the background temperature change” ... Read More

Penguins Shown to Be Poor Indicators of Global Warming (29 Mar 2011)

A long-term study of banded vs. unbanded free-ranging king penguins, Aptenodytes patagonicus, concluded that banding has such a negative impact on breeding success that results from studies which include banded penguins should not be used to draw conclusions on the effects of global warming on the Antarctic ecosytem ... Read More

Do Plants in Mountainous Areas Always Migrate Uphill in Response to Warming? (29 Mar 2011)

Temperature is not the all-important factor when it comes to determining how plants will migrate in the face of a suite of multiple climatic factors in a state of flux ... Read More

Availability of Land for Biofuel Production - But That is Only Part of the Story (30 Mar 2011)

Even if there is sufficient land to theoretically meet the world’s need for food and have sufficient land left over to produce such biofuel feedstock that does not mean that such biofuel production will not affect food prices, food availability, and global hunger and poverty rates ... Read More

Japanese Rainfall: Predictions vs. Observations (30 Mar 2011)

Climate model projections of increased Baiu rainfall in response to global warming induced by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases -- over a period of time when the world’s climate alarmists claim the earth warmed at a rate and to a level that were both unprecedented over the past millennium or more -- are simply not correc ... Read More

Getting to the “Core” of Output Differences as Produced by Climate Models (30 Mar 2011)

Using a simplified atmospheric GCM, Kondrashov et al. (2011) investigate the behavior of the interactions between internal atmospheric dynamic processes depending on how these processes are represented in the model. These dynamics can be represented in a linear or non-linear fashion. This article is an important recent contribution in that it highlights the difficulties climate models still have in just representing the basic observed atmospheric physics in a consistent way ... Read More

C4 Weeds Competing with C3 Crops: Barnyard Grass vs. Rice (30 Mar 2011)

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration could alter the competition between rice and barnyard grass in paddy fields in favor of rice ... Read More

Extreme Weather: More heat waves or colder and snowier winters? (30 Mar 2011)

Results from this study suggest that “changes in litter inputs under elevated CO2 [slight decreases in nitrogen concentration but sizable increases in biomass] should lead to higher long-term carbon storage in soil,” even “despite higher rates of soil respiration” ... Read More

The Uniqueness of British Columbia’s Medieval Warm Period (30 Mar 2011)

At the province’s Felker Lake, the warmth and dryness of the MWP was the most extreme of the entire Holocene ... Read More