Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Geoscientist explains why man-made CO2 is not the driver of global warming

Dr. Ole Humlum, Professor of Geosciences at the University of Oslo, has published a summary and reply to comments on his groundbreaking paper demonstrating why man-made CO2 is not the driver of global warming. Dr. Humlum summarizes the main findings of his paper at a Norwegian website for geologists:

1. [Observations show] The temperature rise begins at sea level and spreads gradually to the land and atmosphere several months later. This is contrary to the IPCC CO2 hypothesis that atmospheric CO2 controls land and ocean temperature.

2. The geographical distribution of a CO2 increase doesn't start at 30-50 degrees North latitude, which one would expect if the source were mainly created by the fossil fuel industry and transport in the Northern Hemisphere. Instead, the increase of CO2 starts just south of the equator. This is contrary to the IPCC hypothesis that use of fossil fuels is the primary cause of increased CO2 levels.

Dr. Humlum notes that existing climate models are based on the improper assumption that CO2 controls temperature and have not provided skillful predictions so far. He concludes,

"One should therefore consider moving the focus of climate research from CO2 to the nature and significance of natural variation, both related to the sun and other [natural causes]. It is most likely where we will find the main reason for the present (and future) climate change."

Dr. Humlum's reply to comments below, followed by the original article: [Google translation]

Climate debate: Humlum match Prestrud

Professor Ole Humlum can not be convinced by Paul Prestrud argument that "the majority has the right." He chooses instead to rely on empirical data.

Ole Humlum

It's always nice to exchange views on climate with Prestrud (read 'Rejects Humlum ideas') , which has impressively strong belief in man-made CO2's greenhouse dominance, a perception that I respect, although I do not share it. I think even on the basis of empirical data (GEO 06/2012, "Temperature controls CO2 levels - not vice versa ") that the natural climate change dominates, even in recent times.

The applied computing in that new article is without error. The interpretation of the results can however debated, which is quite common in science. But who has the most correct in his interpretation is not determined by either the majority or head-shaking as Prestrud obviously think. It is determined by nature itself a not so distant future.

It is true that Bacastow already in 1976 was built on similar ideas as we in our article (why we refers to Bacastow), but it should also be noted that Bacastow subsequent met resistance, rather as we do and will do for some time. We show, however, in our article period of time how changes in temperature systematically comes in changes in CO2, why the sum of the periods (it considerably period) course is characterized by this basic correlation.

We go in our analysis a bit longer than Bacastow in 1976, and amongst others that temperature changes starting at sea level and from there transmitted to the troposphere, and not the opposite as CO 2 hypothesis forecasts. Moreover, we show that the geographic distribution of changes in atmospheric CO 2 does not start in the range between 30 and 50 degrees north, the source of the vast majority of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, but rather initiated a little south of the equator. If anthropogenic CO2 is believed to be the cause of atmospheric contemporary CO2 increase, there should be a sobering thought that it is not seen in the empirical data?

All these empirical results are contrary to the perception that the atmospheric CO 2 increase alone comes from the combustion of cool gas and oil. However, they can be perceived as a sign that our knowledge of carbon cycle is still incomplete.

Probably we simply data and knowledge enough. The fact that the natural uptake of CO2 apparently decreases as expected, but rather seems to grow, also suggests that carbon cycle are inadequately understood.

Moreover, we are still without empirical data demonstrating that temperature changes following CO2 changes, as predicted by the CO2 hypothesis, while the opposite now vides to apply to both variations over a relatively short time (our study) and long-term variations (ice cores).

A general conclusion of this is that current climate models much well build the whole or partial failure
basis, since they assume that the CO2 control temperature. The last 15-16 years of global temperature standstill in conflict with the predicted temperature rise and growing donor support to this suspicion. So far climate models have not been able to deliver usable predictions, probably because the significance of CO2 in the models is overvalued in relation to the importance of natural climate variations. One should therefore consider moving the focus of climate research from CO2 to the nature and significance of natural variation, both they can be related to the sun, and those which may have different causes. It is most likely where we will seek main reason for the present (and future) climate change.

Read the article about Humlum theory with recent comments

The temperature controls CO2 levels - not the other way

In a recent, scientific paper argues that changes in temperature controls, the dramatic increase in the CO ₂ content of the atmosphere. This is contrary to prevailing theory.

Ronny Setså

Ole Humlum is a professor in the Department of Geosciences at the University of Oslo, and Adjunct Professor at the University of Svalbard. Photo: Ronny Setså

- Data from ice cores have previously demonstrated that changes in atmospheric CO₂ has followed temperature changes in the past hundreds of years. Now we have found evidence that this also applies in modern times, says Ole Humlum, professor in the Department of Geosciences at the University of Oslo, and Adjunct Professor at the University of Svalbard.

The article, which will soon be published in the journal Global and Planetary Change , suggest that there are temperature changes on Earth that has governed the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in recent decades.

The scientists behind the article, besides Ole Humlum, Kjell Stordahl, statistician at Telenor and Jan-Erik Solheim, professor emeritus at the Institute of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø.

"Atmospheric CO 2 is there would not initiating the large glacial-interglacial climate changes, and presumably these are controlled by Milankovitch orbital cycles.

The investigations are based on eight different data sets in the time period from January 1980 to December 2011. The datasets include measurements of sea surface temperature, temperature of land surface and tropospheric temperatures, and measurements of CO ₂ in the atmosphere and estimates of how much CO _2-emissions people behind.

Classic performance should be reassessed

The researchers show in the article that it has been assumed that global warming since 1975 has been a result of the increase of the concentration of CO ₂ in the atmosphere. However, it is argued, results from their research shows the opposite.

- That which is communicated to decision makers and the general public is that the increase in CO ₂ levels lead to global warming. This classical notion should be reconsidered in light of the new results, maintains Humlum.

Since 1980, the increase of atmospheric CO ₂ remained eleven to twelve months after the increase in global surface temperature of the oceans, almost ten months after the increase in global air temperature, and about nine months after the increase in global temperatures in the troposphere.

"Changes in ocean Temperatures Appear two explain a considerate part of the Observed changes in atmospheric CO ₂ since January 1980

Similarly, correlation has also been found from the ice core over the past 420,000 years. The time between cause and effect, however, has been slower than in modern times. There is talk of centuries to millennia.

The researchers write that while the link between increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and rising temperatures is very weak in the opposite direction. In some cases they have actually seen an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases has resulted in lower global temperatures.

Oceans important than human emissions

Humlum and authors further point out that the correlation between human (anthropogenic) carbon dioxide emissions and changes of CO ₂ in the atmosphere is unstable and shows little correlation.

They therefore believe that it is primarily the temperature of the surface waters of the oceans that control changes in atmospheric CO _2.

The researchers also examined the relationship between anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and atmospheric CO ₂ levels by looking at a pole-to-pole cross-section of the globe. The cross section suggests that the major source of atmospheric CO ₂ is located just south of the equator. The largest amount of human emissions of greenhouse gas originates however from the middle latitudes of the northern hemisphere, that is, from the Western industrialized countries.

The authors conclude that it is not human emissions of CO _2, but possibly oceans, which has controlled the atmospheric transformation of CO ₂ since 1980.

"CO ₂ released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the Observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO ₂

Request more open attitude

Humlum said the results suggest that the details of the CO _2-cycle is not well enough known, and that human emissions of greenhouse gases can be overrated.

- I think that CO ₂ plays too large a role in current climate models, and that they are not nearly describe the natural climate variations in a good way.

- In terms of research, I hope our findings can contribute to a more open attitude about the causes of the present climate change, says Ole Humlum.

The figure shows the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere since 1980 (green), steadily rising towards 390 ppm today. Blue curve shows the surface temperature of the oceans has changed, while the red curve shows the changes in the global air temperature. Notice how the CO2 curve undulating in time with the seasons, caused by changes in ocean temperature and photosynthesis in the terrestrial biosphere.Illustration: Humlum et al., 2012

The figure shows the global changes of atmospheric CO2 since 1980 (green), global surface temperature of the oceans (blue) and global surface temperature (red). Note that the green curve is for both blue and red curve. Illustration: Humlum et al., 2012

Reference:

Ole Humlum, Kjell Stordahl and Jan-Erik Solheim: The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature; Global and Planetary Change, 2012.

New paper finds the highest storm activity is associated with cold periods

A new paper published in Nature Geoscience examines climate change over the past 11,500 years and finds, contrary to the claims of climate alarmists, that the highest storm activity is associated with cold periods. According to the authors, "We find that high storm activity occurred periodically with a frequency of about 1,500 years, closely related to cold and windy periods." The paper adds to several others showing that global warming decreases storm activity and extreme weather.

Persistent non-solar forcing of Holocene storm dynamics in coastal sedimentary archives

Nature Geoscience

(2012)

doi:10.1038/ngeo1619

Received: 03 August 2012
Accepted: 04 October 2012
Published online: 11 November 2012

Considerable climatic variability on decadal to millennial timescales has been documented for the past 11,500 years of interglacial climate^1, 2, 3. This variability has been particularly pronounced at a frequency of about 1,500 years, with repeated cold intervals in the North Atlantic^1, 3. However, there is growing evidence that these oscillations originate from a cluster of different spectral signatures⁴, ranging from a 2,500-year cycle throughout the period to a 1,000-year cycle during the earliest millennia. Here we present a reappraisal of high-energy estuarine and coastal sedimentary records from the southern coast of the English Channel, and report evidence for five distinct periods during the Holocene when storminess was enhanced during the past 6,500 years. We find that high storm activity occurred periodically with a frequency of about 1,500 years, closely related to cold and windy periods diagnosed earlier^1, 2, 3. We show that millennial-scale storm extremes in northern Europe are phase-locked with the period of internal ocean variability in the North Atlantic of about 1,500 years⁴. However, no consistent correlation emerges between spectral maxima in records of storminess and solar irradiation. We conclude that solar activity changes are unlikely to be a primary forcing mechanism of millennial-scale variability in storminess.

Monday, November 12, 2012

Muller and Daniels: The Fracker's Guide to a Greener World

Greenhouse-gas emissions are growing rapidly in the developing world. The only realistic alternative to this trend is natural gas.

By RICHARD MULLER
AND MITCH DANIELS WSJ.COM 11/11/12

You may think that global warming is the biggest scam of all time, driven by politicians who want to scare you and scientists who love media attention and increased funding. Or you may think global warming is the greatest threat we face, and that if we don't act immediately we'll leave a tragic legacy for our children and grandchildren.

One of us is a former skeptic, converted by his own research to the conviction that man-made carbon dioxide is the decisive factor in a real phenomenon of climate change. The other is agnostic, willing to be persuaded of human causality but rejecting as ineffective or counterproductive the anti-growth policies proposed by some alarmists. People like us—and all those struggling with the ambiguities of this highly uncertain topic—might come together around policies that make sense whatever the scientific facts ultimately prove to be.

For the sake of argument, let's begin by assuming that the United Nations evaluation is correct in arguing that global warming is real, caused by humans, and going to cause severe disruption to our economies and to our lives. Please bear with us even if you reject this claim; we'll suggest actions that make sense regardless of your position.

China's yearly greenhouse-gas emissions first exceeded those of the United States in 2006, and by the end of this year the Chinese will be emitting twice as much as the Americans. This spectacular rise matches China's economic growth and vast expansion of coal use. For the last seven years, China has been adding more than a gigawatt of new coal power each week, or more than 52 new gigawatts of additional capacity every year. (For comparison, New York City uses 10 gigawatts and isn't increasing its use.) And we can expect Chinese economic and energy growth to continue.

In the U.S., by contrast, emissions are at the lowest they've been for 20 years thanks largely to America's continuing switch from coal to natural gas, which emits half as much carbon dioxide for each kilowatt hour of energy generated.

This means that the future warming projected by the U.N. comes not from the U.S. (or from other developed countries) but primarily from China, India and the rest of the rapidly developing world.

Martin Kozlowski

Assuming that the U.N. scenario is correct, the only hope for controlling China's emissions is to reduce its coal growth—a challenge since coal is cheap, China has a great natural supply, and the Chinese currently derive nearly 70% of their electricity from coal.

We suggest a dual approach: profitable conservation and rapid expansion of the natural-gas economy.

The conservation we suggest is technological, meaning it wouldn't depend on individual sacrifice or cultural change. Done right, this conservation can yield large returns on investment.

Install better insulation, for example, and you can save on both heating and cooling. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that close to half of American consumers could get back 100% of their investment over roughly five years. Utility commissions could link the revenue of utilities to their successful implementation of efficiency, as they have done with success in our home states, Indiana and California.

Other ways to achieve profitable conservation include investing in "cool roofs" that reflect heat radiation. These can be cheaper and more efficient than installing solar cell collectors to generate power used by appliances such as air conditioners.

Even more promising is the switch away from coal to natural gas, particularly in the developing world. Natural gas has the huge added advantage of causing far less local air pollution—the kind that, unlike carbon dioxide, is harmful to human health. Coal releases far higher levels of soot and other chemicals that are currently choking China.

One of the factors slowing the world-wide switch to natural gas, however, is shortsighted opposition from some environmentalists in the U.S., Europe and beyond. They argue that extracting natural gas by hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") may pollute local water supplies and leak the powerful greenhouse gas methane, and their arguments affect official and commercial thinking in both the developed and developing worlds.

It is true that fracking has caused some limited, local pollution in the U.S., but this is attributable largely to the wildcatting behavior of the rapidly growing industry. Technology for clean fracking is technically straightforward, and government authorities can promote its use through careful monitoring and large fines for transgressions.

Some environmentalists argue that the best approach to limiting greenhouse-gas emissions is to switch to "renewables." But these energy sources are still far outside the budgets of the developing nations. China last year installed two gigawatts of solar capacity—but that is "peak" power representing only a clear midday when the sun is directly overhead. Average in nights and cloudy days, and the average power these plants can deliver is about 1/4 gigawatt. Meanwhile, China's coal use grows at about 50 gigawatts per year, or 200 times faster than its solar growth. No realistic scenario foresees renewables making more than a marginal contribution in the developing world for many decades.

The dual solution of profitable conservation (beloved by liberals) and clean fracking (touted by conservatives) may not fully satisfy either side. But we hope it can provide a middle ground on which political factions can come together.

It is still conceivable that global warming isn't caused by greenhouse gases, that the theory and the computer models are wrong, and that the match between the temperature curve and carbon-dioxide emissions is accidental. Even so, profitable conservation makes business sense, and a natural-gas economy would reduce smog and improve public health. It is worth facilitating China's shift from coal to natural gas for humanitarian reasons alone.

Mr. Muller, a professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, is the author of "Energy for Future Presidents" (Norton, 2012). Mr. Daniels, the governor of Indiana, will assume the presidency of Purdue University in January.

IEA: US set to become world's largest oil producer by 2020 & energy independent by 2030

Shale Boom to Turn U.S. Into World's Largest Oil Producer, Watchdog Says

By BENOÎT FAUCON WSJ.COM 11/12/12

LONDON—A shale oil boom means the U.S. will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer by 2020, a radical shift that could profoundly transform not just the world's energy supplies, but also its geopolitics, the International Energy Agency said Monday.

In its closely watched annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA, which advises industrialized nations on their energy policies, said the global energy map "is being redrawn by the resurgence in oil and gas production in the United States."

The assessment is in contrast with last year, when it envisioned Russia and Saudi Arabia vying for the top position.

"By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer" and overtake Saudi Arabia for a time, the agency said. "The result is a continued fall in U.S. oil imports (currently at 20% of its needs) to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030."

This major shift will be driven by the faster-than-expected development of hydrocarbon resources locked in shale and other tight rock that have just started to be unlocked by a new combination of technologies called hydraulic fracturing.

According to Washington's Energy Information Administration, U.S. oil production has increased 7% to 10.76 million barrels a day since the IEA's last outlook a year ago. The agency's conclusions are partly backed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which last week acknowledged for the first time that shale oil would significantly diminish its share of the U.S. market.

The group said the U.S. would import less than 2 million barrels a day in 2035, almost three-quarters less than it does today. That is not to say OPEC's role will be marginalized globally. The group's share of global production will increase from 42% today to 50% in 2035, with much of it going to Asia, according to the IEA.

The IEA hinted that newly found U.S. energy independence could redefine military alliances, with Washington being replaced by Asian nations as those needing to secure oil shipping lanes.

"It accelerates the switch in direction of international oil trade towards Asia, putting a focus on the security of the strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets," it said. Some in the U.S. are already questioning the reasons for keeping U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf. "It's insane that we have the Fifth Fleet of the U.S. Navy tied up there to protect oil that ends up in China and Europe," T. Boone Pickens, chief executive of energy-focused hedge fund BP Capital Management, was quoted as saying last week in U.S. magazine Parade.

The IEA also warned that the emergence of shale gas as a game changer in global energy has a downside risk, contributing to increased competition for water resources needed for energy projects.

Shale oil and gas are extracted by pumping water, sand and chemicals into the ground at high pressure to crack rocks open, a process known as hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking." But the intensive use of water, "will increasingly impose additional costs," and could "threaten the viability of projects" for shale oil and gas, and biofuels, the agency said.

Winds Drive Growth in Antarctic Sea Ice

Winds Drive Growth in Antarctic Sea Ice

WSJ.COM 11/12/12

Northward winds are driving the record growth of winter sea ice around Antarctica, which stands in contrast to the extensive melting of the Arctic sea ice in recent years, scientists reported Sunday.

Their new research, based on 19 years of daily ice-motion measurements recorded by four satellites of the U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, highlights how geography, weather and climate patterns are affecting the planet's polar regions in different ways.

Their analysis documented for the first time that long-term changes in the drift of annual sea ice around Antarctica were strongly affected by winds. The area of ocean covered by sea ice grew markedly in regions where the prevailing winds spread out the loosely compacted ice floes, they reported. It shrank in areas where the wind blew the floating ice up against the shore.

The researchers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California and the British Antarctic Survey reported their work Sunday in Nature Geoscience.

"We have evidence now that the wind is driving the ice cover," said JPL senior research scientist Ron Kwok, who led the study. "The expansion and contraction of ice around the continent is largely explained by wind forces, which is very different in the Antarctic than in the Arctic."

Broadly speaking, the Earth's polar regions are mirror opposites.

The Arctic Ocean is largely landlocked, surrounded by North America, Greenland and Eurasia, which limits the amount of sea ice there could be no matter which way the wind is blowing. Earlier this year, scientists reported that the extent of summer sea ice in the Arctic was the lowest since 1979, when satellite monitoring there began.

By contrast, Antarctica—the world's coldest and windiest continent—is covered by an ice cap two miles thick and surrounded by the Southern Ocean. The annual growth of sea ice around Antarctica is the largest seasonal event on the planet.

With the onset of the Southern Hemisphere winter in March, the ice expands at 22 square miles a minute. In 1992, the direction of the drifting sea ice changed, with the spread of the ice doubling in some regions, the satellite measurements showed. Earlier this year, Antarctica's sea ice reached a record expanse of 7.49 million square miles, before the spring thaw began.

In a separate study made public last month, climate scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland reported that winter sea ice surrounding Antarctica has been increasing by about 6,600 square miles every year—an area larger than Connecticut—during the same decades that the Arctic summer sea ice has been shrinking.

The researchers didn't identify what was driving wind patterns around Antarctica. Generally, the annual ozone hole over Antarctica has strongly affected wind circulation throughout the Southern Hemisphere, studies have shown. Wind patterns around Antarctica also are linked to larger climate cycles such as El Niño.

"The larger connection to global climate change and warming is more difficult to say," Dr. Kwok said. "We don't understand that yet."

Thursday, November 8, 2012

New papers showing the Medieval Warming Period was warmer than the present

Re-posted from the latest NIPCC Report, two new papers add to hundreds of others showing that the Medieval Warming Period [MWP] was warmer than the Current Warm Period, "which makes it extremely difficult to believe that Earth's current level of warmth largely owes its existence to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, as the world's climate alarmists continue to claim it does."

The late Medieval Warm Period in Switzerland's Seebergsee

Reference:
Larocque-Tobler, I., Stewart, M.M., Quinlan, R., Trachsel, M., Kamenik, C. and Grosjean, M. 2012. A last millennium temperature reconstruction using chironomids preserved in sediments of anoxic Seebergsee (Switzerland): consensus at local, regional and Central European scales. Quaternary Science Reviews 41: 49-56.

In presenting the rationale for their study, Larocque-Tobler et al. (2012) rhetorically ask: "Does the amplitude of climate change of the last century exceed the natural variability?" And in describing the first step in answering this question for themselves, they state that "high-temporally resolved paleo-climate reconstructions are needed to place the last century into a broader spatial and temporal context," which they thus proceed to do.

Working at Seebergsee (46°37'N, 7°28'E) - a small two-basin lake of surface area 0.06 km2 in the northern Swiss Alps - Larocque-Tobler et al. extracted a 3-m sediment core from the lake's deepest point back in AD 2005, which they scrutinized for head capsules of various chironomid species at near-annual resolution over the upper 36 cm of the core and at approximately decadal resolution throughout the rest of the core. These species assemblage data were then calibrated against instrumental temperature data from the closest meteorological station and compared with regional instrumental records stretching as far back as AD 1760, after which the result was used to reconstruct mean July air temperatures for the period AD 1073-2005.

In describing their findings the six scientists were careful to note that the temperature reconstruction they derived "starts at the end of the previously defined 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'," or MCA. This fact is very important, for it suggests that their temperature reconstruction may not include the warmest temperatures of the MCA. Not needing to do so, however, they state in the conclusion section of their report that even with their highly-truncated temperature record, "the MCA period has been shown to be warmer than the last century by about 1.2°C." However, they hasten to add that "the temperatures of the last century increased by 0.8°C," but following - in the very same sentence - they state that even with this increase, the latest temperatures of their record "did not exceed the MCA chironomid-inferred temperatures."

Once again, another carefully conducted study strongly suggests that the peak warmth of the Medieval Warm Period was likely significantly greater than that of the Current Warm Period has been to date.

The Medieval Warm Period in Northeast China

Reference:
Wang, L., Rioual, P., Panizzo, V.N., Lu, H., Gu, Z., Chu, G., Yang, D., Han, J., Liu, J. and Mackay, A.W. 2012. A 1000-yr record of environmental change in NE China indicated by diatom assemblages from maar lake Erlongwan. Quaternary Research 78: 24-34.

In an initial explanation about why they did what they did, Wang et al. (2012) write that "lakes are excellent sensors of environmental change," and that "lake sediments can provide well-resolved records of change on different time scales," while noting that "crater and maar lakes are especially sensitive to climate change because typically they have a small catchment area and limited inflow/outflow." Moreover, they say such lakes "often provide high-resolution records due to limnological processes favorable to the development and preservation of seasonally laminated sediments," citing Zolitschka et al. (2000) in this regard. And they add that "diatoms are excellent indicators of environmental conditions and have been widely used to reconstruct Holocene climate variability," citing Smol and Cumming (2000), Battarbee et al. (2001) and Mackay et al. (2003).
Focusing on Lake Erlongwan, one of eight maar lakes in the Long Gang Volcanic Field of Jilin Province, NE China (42°18'N, 126°21'E) - which they describe as a closed dimictic lake that occupies an area of 0.3 km2 and has a small catchment (0.4 km2) with no natural inflows or outflow - Wang et al. retrieved a 66.5-cm-long sediment core from its central, deepest region in 2001, which they dated with the help of radiometric 210Pb, 137Cs and 14C analyses, and which they analyzed for diatom species and quantities. Although they note, in this regard, that diatoms "are generally not known to be very sensitive to water temperature," they indicate that "climate affects the physical properties of the lake water column, especially as it controls the seasonal durations of ice cover, water column mixing and stratification, which all have profound effects on the availability of nutrients and light necessary for algal photosynthesis and growth," so that "climate has an indirect influence on the composition and productivity of phytoplankton, especially non-motile organisms such as diatoms," which thus allows them to undertake "a detailed qualitative paleolimnological interpretation of the Lake Erlongwan sediment sequence based mainly on the growing body of literature that focuses on the ecology of planktonic diatoms, especially their responses to climate-driven changes in limnology."

The ten researchers report that "three intervals were identified by their diatom assemblages and correspond within dating uncertainties to the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the 20th century warming trend." During the MWP, they further indicate that "the duration of the summer was longer while the spring and autumn were shorter than the 20th century." And they unequivocally declare that "the period between ca. AD 1150 and 1200 was the warmest interval of the past 1000 years."

In view of the fact that, prior to the time of their study, there was no record of mean annual temperatures from NE China covering the past 1000 years with the same resolution as their diatom record, Wang et al.'s work demonstrates - for yet another part of the planet - that late-20th-century warmth, even with the help of an extra 100 ppm of CO2, was less than that of the MWP, which makes it extremely difficult to believe that Earth's current level of warmth largely owes its existence to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, as the world's climate alarmists continue to claim it does.

Additional References

Battarbee, R.W., Jones, V.J., Flower, B.P., Cameron, N.G., Bennion, H., Carvalho, L. and Juggins, S. 2001. Diatoms. In: Smol, J.P., Birks, H.J.B. and Last, W.M. (Eds.). Tracking Environmental Change Using Lake Sediments. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 155-201.

Mackay, A.W., Jones, V.J. and Battarbee, R.W. 2003. Approaches to Holocene climate reconstruction using diatoms. In: Mackay, A.W., Battarbee, R.W., Birks, H.J.B. and Oldfield, F. (Eds.). Global Change in the Holocene. Arnold, London, United Kingdom, pp. 294-309.

Smol, J.P. and Cumming, B.F. 2000. Tracking long-term changes in climate using algal indicators in lake sediments. Journal of Phycology 36: 986-1011.

Zolitschka, B., Brauer, A., Negendank, J.F.W., Stockhausen, H. and Lang, A. 2000. Annually dated late Weichselian continental paleoclimate record from the Eifel, Germany. Geology 28: 783-786.

New paper shows European climate was warmer than 20th century during multiple periods over past 11,000 years

A new paper published in Climate of the Past reconstructs central European climate from oxygen isotopes in stalagmites and shows the climate was warmer than the 20th century during multiple periods over over the past 11,000 years. These periods include ~ 1000, 1800, 5000, 7000, 9000, 9500, 10000, and 10500 years ago. The paper also shows that the Little Ice Age was the coldest period of the past 11,000 years.

Composite & smoothed data from the stalagmites in this study is shown by the red line. Thousands of years ago is indicated by the x axis. As indicated by the graph legend to the right side, lower values of the oxygen 18 isotope are associated with warmer climate. The Little Ice Age [LIA] was the coldest period of the past 11,000 years.

Clim. Past, 8, 1751-1764, 2012
www.clim-past.net/8/1751/2012/
doi:10.5194/cp-8-1751-2012
Bunker Cave stalagmites: an archive for central European Holocene climate variability

J. Fohlmeister¹, A. Schröder-Ritzrau¹, D. Scholz², C. Spötl³, D. F. C. Riechelmann⁴, M. Mudelsee⁵, A. Wackerbarth¹, A. Gerdes^6,7, S. Riechelmann⁸, A. Immenhauser⁸, D. K. Richter⁸, and A. Mangini¹
¹Heidelberg Academy of Sciences, Heidelberg, Germany
²Institute for Geosciences, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany
³Institute for Geology and Palaeontology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
⁴Institute for Geography, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany
⁵Climate Risk Analysis, Hanover, Germany
⁶Institute for Geosciences, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany
⁷Department of Earth Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa
⁸Institute for Geology, Mineralogy and Geophysics, Ruhr-University Bochum, Bochum, Germany
Abstract. Holocene climate was characterised by variability on multi-centennial to multi-decadal time scales. In central Europe, these fluctuations were most pronounced during winter. Here we present a record of past winter climate variability for the last 10.8 ka based on four speleothems from Bunker Cave, western Germany. Due to its central European location, the cave site is particularly well suited to record changes in precipitation and temperature in response to changes in the North Atlantic realm. We present high-resolution records of δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C values and Mg/Ca ratios. Changes in the Mg/Ca ratio are attributed to past meteoric precipitation variability. The stable C isotope composition of the speleothems most likely reflects changes in vegetation and precipitation, and variations in the δ¹⁸O signal are interpreted as variations in meteoric precipitation and temperature. We found cold and dry periods between 8 and 7 ka, 6.5 and 5.5 ka, 4 and 3 ka as well as between 0.7 and 0.2 ka. The proxy signals in the Bunker Cave stalagmites compare well with other isotope records and, thus, seem representative for central European Holocene climate variability. The prominent 8.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age cold events are both recorded in the Bunker Cave record. However, these events show a contrasting relationship between climate and δ¹⁸O, which is explained by different causes underlying the two climate anomalies. Whereas the Little Ice Age is attributed to a pronounced negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the 8.2 ka event was triggered by cooler conditions in the North Atlantic due to a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation.

Final Revised Paper (PDF, 2415 KB) Discussion Paper (CPD) Special Issue

New paper finds sea level trends are biased by natural ocean oscillations

A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters finds that much of the observed variation in Pacific Ocean sea levels is explained by natural ocean oscillations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO] and El Nino Southern Oscillation [ENSO]. The authors caution that sea level trends over the short period observed by satellites [less than 20 years] can be erroneously biased by this natural variability.

Top graph shows rapid sea level changes in the Western Pacific and little to no sea level change in the Eastern Pacific since 1993 are largely due to natural variability from ocean oscillations [ENSO and PDO]

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L21701, 8 PP., 2012

doi:10.1029/2012GL053240

Sea level trends, interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean

Key Points

Sea level linear trend over short period is complicated by climate variability
We separate interannual and decadal sea level variability from trend in Pacific
Decadal sea level [natural] variability can be erroneously aliased into sea level trend

Xuebin Zhang

Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, a Partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Australia Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

John A. Church

Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, a Partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Australia Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Linear trend analysis is commonly applied to quantify sea level change, often over short periods because of limited data availability. However, the linear trend computed over short periods is complicated by large-scale climate variability which can affect regional sea level on interannual to inter-decadal time scales. As a result, the meaning of a local linear sea level trend over the short altimeter era (since 1993; less than 20 years) is unclear, and it is not straightforward to distinguish the regional sea level changes associated with climate change from those associated with natural climate variability. In this study, we use continuous near-global altimeter measurements since 1993 to attempt to separate interannual and decadal sea level variability in the Pacific from the sea level trend. We conclude that the rapid rates of sea level rise in the western tropical Pacific found from a single variable linear regression analysis are partially due to basin-scale decadal [natural] climate variability. The negligible sea level rise, or even falling sea level, in the eastern tropical Pacific and US west coast is a result of the combination of decreasing of sea level associated with decadal [natural] climate variability and a positive sea level trend. The single variable linear regression analysis only accounts for slightly more than 20% of the observed variance, whereas a multiple variable linear regression including filtered indices of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation accounts for almost 60% of the observed variance.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Climate alarmists confounded again: New paper finds no effect of global warming on El Ninos

A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds "there is no evidence that there are changes in the strength, frequency, duration, location or direction of propagation of El Niño and La Niña anomalies caused by global warming during the period from 1871 to 2008." The paper adds to several others contradicting the claims of climate alarmists, such as Kevin Trenberth, that global warming causes increases of the strength and frequency of El Ninos.

Related: Posts on El Ninos

One of four reconstructions in this study of El Nino amplitude from 1871-2008 shows no trend with global warming

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 117, C11007, 16 PP., 2012

doi:10.1029/2012JC008031

Historical changes in El Niño and La Niña characteristics in an ocean reanalysis

Key Points

No evidence of changes in El Nino frequency caused by global warming
Absence of an unique mean location of La Nina
El Nino in reanalysis correlates better with El Nino in ERSST

Sulagna Ray

Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA

LOCEAN/IPSL, UPMC, Paris, France

Benjamin S. Giese

Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA

The variation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from the mid-nineteenth century until the beginning of the twenty-first century is explored using an ocean reanalysis. A comparison of the reanalysis with three sea surface temperature reconstructions shows that the timing of events is similar in all four products, however there are important differences in the strength and location of events. The difference between the reconstructions is sometimes larger than the difference between the reanalysis and a given reconstruction. These differences are larger in the first half of the record, a period for which there are relatively sparse observations. The reanalysis is used to explore decadal variability and trends in the frequency, duration, and propagation direction of ENSO events. There is considerable decadal variability of these ENSO characteristics with the time between events ranging from several months to ten years and the duration of ENSO varying from 5 to 27 months. As has been previously shown for the strength and location of ENSO there is little overall trend in the characteristics. Having a three dimensional representation of the ocean from the reanalysis allows exploration of subsurface changes during ENSO. An analysis of subsurface anomalies shows that during ENSO events the subsurface anomalies are highly correlated with the strength of surface anomalies over the 140 year period. Overall, there is no evidence that there are changes in the strength, frequency, duration, location or direction of propagation of El Niño and La Niña anomalies caused by global warming during the period from 1871 to 2008.

After Sandy, No One Lined Up for Wind Turbines

The greens want to go 'beyond oil,' but without it we'd freeze in the dark.

By ROBERT BRYCE WSJ.COM 11/8/12

Last year, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg pledged $50 million to the Sierra Club for its "beyond coal" campaign. But the mayor hasn't—and won't—be directing any cash to the club's parallel "beyond oil" campaign.

That is because oil—and, more specifically, diesel fuel and gasoline—are proving to be the most important commodities in the wake of the huge storm that recently pummeled the East Coast.

In the wake of Hurricane Sandy, all of the critical pieces of equipment were burning gasoline or diesel fuel: the pumps removing water from flooded basements and subway tunnels, the generators providing electricity to hospitals and businesses, and the cars, trucks and aircraft providing mobility.

The Sierra Club and its allies on the green left will doubtless continue their decades-long war on the oil and gas industry, but the Sandy disaster-response efforts are showing again that there is no substitute for oil. One of the first things that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie requested from the federal government after the storm was quick delivery of motor-fuel supplies. The Department of Defense responded with 250,000 gallons of gasoline and 500,000 gallons of diesel.

Petroleum is essential to modern society not because of some conspiracy cooked up by Exxon Mobil and its brethren. Instead, it is due to simple physics and basic math.

If oil didn't exist, we would have to invent it. No other substance comes close when it comes to energy density (the amount of energy contained in a given unit of volume or mass), ease of handling or flexibility. A single kilogram of diesel fuel contains about 13,000 watt-hours of energy. That is about twice the energy density of coal, six times that of wood, and about 300 times that of lead-acid batteries. (And those batteries are useful only if they have been charged by some other energy source.)

Combine diesel fuel's miraculous energy density with the power density and durability of a modern diesel engine—which can run for weeks at a time with little or no maintenance—and the size, speed, and cost advantages become apparent.

The Sierra Club, Greenpeace and other groups claim that we can run our economies solely on renewable-energy sources such as wind. But if you are trying to pump water out of your rapidly molding basement, would you prefer a wind turbine that operates at full power about one-third of the time, or a greasy, diesel-fueled V-8?

Let's consider what a wind-powered hospital in New York might look like. NYU's Langone Medical Center lost power shortly after Sandy hit. The hospital had diesel-fired emergency generators, but basement flooding caused them to fail. That required the evacuation of hundreds of patients.

Assume the hospital needs one megawatt of emergency electricity-generation capacity. Lives are at stake. It needs power immediately. That capability could easily be provided by a single, trailer-mounted diesel generator, which would occupy a small corner of the hospital's garage (and be safely removed from any flooding threat). By contrast, providing that much wind-generation capacity would require about 5.6 million square feet of land—an area of nearly 100 football fields. And all of that assumes that the land is available, the wind is blowing, and there are enough transmission lines to carry those wind-generated electrons from the countryside into Lower Manhattan.

This year, some 222 million engines will be manufactured around the world, according to Dennis Huibregtse of Power Systems Research. Those engines will power everything from hedge trimmers to supertankers, water pumps to generators. Every one of them will run on refined oil products.

Sandy left millions of East Coast residents in the cold and dark. If any of them have been demanding "green" energy, I haven't heard about it. In the storm's aftermath, the most hopeful sound of recovery is the joyous racket that comes from an internal-combustion engine burning fossil fuels.

Mr. Bryce, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, is the author, most recently, of "Power Hungry: The Myths of 'Green' Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future" (PublicAffairs, 2010).

Thursday, November 1, 2012

New paper shows N. American droughts were much more extreme 500 years ago

A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds that the Central Plains of North America experienced multiple severe "megadroughts" [lasting up to 50 years each] during the Medieval Climate Anomaly from 1100-1500 AD. According to the authors, "These ‘megadroughts’ had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events." By comparison, the paper shows that droughts over the past 500 years have been much less extreme.

Reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI] for June-August shows megadroughts of "exceptional persistance" lasting decades [negative anomalies shown in brown] during the Medieval Climate Anomaly 1100-1500 AD.

Journal of Climate 2012 ; e-View doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00022.1

Intensification of North American megadroughts through surface and dust aerosol forcing.

Benjamin I. Cook*

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NY, NY, USA, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, USA

Richard Seager

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, USA

Ron L. Miller

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NY, NY, USA

Joseph A. Mason

University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA

Abstract

Tree ring based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) indicate that, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Central Plains of North America experienced recurrent periods of drought spanning decades or longer. These ‘megadroughts’ had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events, but the causes remain uncertain. We conducted a suite of general circulation model experiments to test the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface forcing on the MCA megadroughts over the Central Plains. The land surface forcing is represented as a set of dune mobilization boundary conditions, derived from available geomorphological evidence and modeled as increased bare soil area and a dust aerosol source (105°W–95°W 32°N–44°N). In our experiments, cold tropical Pacific SST forcing suppresses precipitation over the Central Plains, but cannot reproduce the overall drying or persistence seen in the PDSI reconstruction. Droughts in our scenario with dust aerosols, however, are amplified and have significantly longer persistence than in our other model experiments, more closely matching the reconstructed PDSI. This additional drying occurs because the dust increases the shortwave planetary albedo, reducing energy inputs to the surface and boundary layer. The energy deficit increases atmospheric stability, inhibiting convection and reducing cloud cover and precipitation over the Central Plains. Results from this study provide the first model based evidence that dust aerosol forcing and land surface changes could have contributed to the intensity and persistence of the Central Plains megadroughts, although uncertainties remain in the formulation of the boundary conditions and the future importance of these feedbacks.

Full paper available here