New paper finds global warming weakens tropical cyclones and steers them away from landfall

More benefits to global warming and inconvenient truths for climate alarmists:

A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds that global warming weakens tropical Atlantic cyclones and also tends to steer them away from landfall, harmlessly into the open ocean. According to the authors, "As the climate warms, the models project a weakening of the subtropical easterlies [wind patterns that form tropical cyclones] as well as an eastward shift in genesis location. This results in a statistically significant decrease in straight-moving (westward) storm tracks of 5.5% and an increase in recurving (open ocean) tracks of 5.5%. These track changes decrease tropical cyclone counts over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean by 1-1.5 per decade and increase tropical cyclone counts over the central Atlantic by 1-1.5 per decade."

Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks

Angela J. Colbert¹

Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL

Brian J. Soden

Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL

Gabriel A. Vecchi

NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ

Ben P. Kirtman

Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL

Abstract

We examine the change in tropical cyclone (TC) tracks that result from projected changes in the large-scale steering flow and genesis location due to increasing greenhouse gases. Tracks are first simulated using a Beta and Advection Model (BAM) and NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis winds for all TCs that formed in the North Atlantic main development region (MDR) for the period 1950-2010. Changes in genesis location and large-scale steering flow are then estimated from an ensemble mean of 17 CMIP3 models for the A1b emissions scenario. The BAM simulations are then repeated with these changes to estimate how the TC tracks would respond to increased greenhouse gases. As the climate warms, the models project a weakening of the subtropical easterlies as well as an eastward shift in genesis location. This results in a statistically significant decrease in straight-moving (westward) storm tracks of 5.5% and an increase in recurving (open ocean) tracks of 5.5%. These track changes decrease TC counts over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean by 1-1.5 per decade and increase TC counts over the central Atlantic by 1-1.5 per decade. Changes in the large-scale steering flow account for a vast majority of the projected changes in TC trajectories.

New paper finds Pacific tropical cyclones coincided with solar activity

A new paper published in the Journal of Climate examines landfalling tropical cyclones along the eastern Pacific coast between the 16th and 20th centuries and finds the most persistent cycle lasted ~ 12 years and coincided with the ~11-12 year solar cycle.

Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View

doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00411.1

LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST BETWEEN THE 16^th AND 20^th CENTURIES

Marni Pazos*

Graduate Program in Earth Sciences, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

Blanca Mendoza

Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F. C.P. 04510

Abstract

Numerous studies have been conducted to document long term trends in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, the eastern Pacific has not received as much attention as other basins. Here we attempt the identification of TC formation in the Mexican eastern Pacific ocean before 1950. Using bibliographical and historical file consultation, we constructed a catalog of events related to intense storms and possible TCs that made landfall in the Mexican Pacific coasts. Between 1536 and 1948 we found a total of 119 events related to TCs. Then, using the Saffir-Simpson scale and the climatology of the region as the criteria to evaluate each event, we found 85 TCs. Furthermore, we constructed a historical time series of TCs between 1701 and 2010. The spectral analysis showed periodicities of ~2.6, 4, 5, 12, 16, 39 and 105 years, that coincide with some large-scale climatic phenomena and also with solar activity. In particular, the ~12-year cycle is the most persistent periodicity in our study.

Kyoto Protocol arrived with a bang & departs with a whimper

The Kyoto Scorecard

The U.N.'s anticarbon scheme didn't work out as planned.

WSJ.COM 1-5-13: The Kyoto Protocol on climate change used to be a big deal. So big that the future of humanity was said to hinge on its implementation. Did you know it expired on New Year's Day? We're guessing you didn't, but don't worry. It's no big deal.

Adopted in 1997 and in force since 2005, the U.N. compact was intended to lock its signatories into curbing or cutting their greenhouse-gas emissions relative to 1990 levels. It didn't work out as planned.

Japan promised a 6% reduction relative to its 1990 levels, but instead saw a 7.4% increase, despite 20 years of economic stagnation. Australia, where growth has been more robust, pledged to let carbon increase by no more than 8%. Instead its 1990-2010 emissions rose 47.5%.

The Netherlands promised a 6% cut but wound up with 20% higher emissions by the end of 2010. Canada, one of the pact's most enthusiastic early backers, committed to a 6% cut but saw a 24% emissions increase above 1990 levels. In 2011 Ottawa announced it was withdrawing from Kyoto to avoid the penalties it would have owed for missing its target.

On paper, the EU as a whole looks set to meet its overall 2012 emissions target. But that's mainly thanks to economic stagnation and the closure of inefficient Soviet-era industries. Europe's cap-and-trade system also encourages industry to move production abroad while pocketing payments in the form of "carbon credits."

As for the U.S., it saw an emissions increase of only 10.3% between 1990 and 2010, despite economic and population growth that outpaced most of the industrialized world. Some of the thanks here go to the shale-gas revolution, which uses technology that still hasn't gotten past most European regulators. This triumph of American ingenuity might never have happened if Al Gore had managed to drag the U.S. into Kyoto 15 years ago.

So is that it? Not precisely. In December, the U.N. announced a last-minute "extension" of the protocol until 2020, though this is life-support by press release. New Zealand, Russia and Japan have followed Canada's lead and are now officially out of Kyoto's carbon strictures, while the world's largest emitters in China and the U.S. were never in. Now only Australia and the EU remain.

In its day, the Kyoto Protocol did its share of economic damage by distorting energy markets and encouraging job-killing legislation. Some of that damage will remain. Still, count this as another eco-cure that arrived with a bang and departed, as so many of them do, with a whimper.

New paper finds another mechanism by which the Sun controls climate

A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds that short-term changes in solar activity over the 11 year solar cycle have a significant influence on the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] and Arctic Oscillation [AO]. According to the authors,  "Variability in solar irradiance has been connected to changes in surface climate in the North Atlantic through both observational and climate modelling studies." Using new satellite data demonstrating that solar UV varies by a factor that is 4 to 6 times larger than typical previous estimates, the authors find a mechanism to explain the solar effect on these climate oscillations via increased production of ozone in the atmosphere. The authors conclude that these large changes in solar UV can have amplified effects on regional climate and may be useful for predicting seasonal and long term climate change in Europe.

Slides from a presentation on this paper by one of the authors:

 

 

 

 

A Mechanism for Lagged North Atlantic Climate Response to Solar Variability

1. Adam A. Scaife et al

1. 
   

Abstract:  Variability in solar irradiance has been connected to changes in surface climate in the North Atlantic through both observational and climate modelling studies which suggest a response in the atmospheric circulation that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation or its hemispheric equivalent the Arctic Oscillation. It has also been noted that this response appears to follow the changes in solar irradiance by a few years, depending on the exact indicator of solar variability. Here we propose and test a mechanism for this lag based on the known impact of atmospheric circulation on the Atlantic Ocean, the extended memory of ocean heat content anomalies and their subsequent feedback onto the atmosphere. We use results from climate model experiments to develop a simple model for the relationship between solar variability and North Atlantic climate.

Faint young Sun paradox resolved by assuming CO2 did not control temperature

A recent paper published in Geophysical Research Letters finds that the 'Faint young Sun problem' has become "more severe" because to solve the problem using conventional greenhouse theory would require CO2 to comprise 0.4 bar or about 40% of the young Earth atmosphere, far greater than CO2 partial pressures today [0.014 bar or 28 times less] or those estimated for the young Earth [0.06 bar]. According to the authors,

"Our results suggest that currently favored greenhouse [gas] solutions could be in conflict with constraints emerging for the middle and late Archean [young Earth]."

However, if one instead simply assumes CO2 concentrations had no significant influence on Earth temperature, the faint young Sun problem can be resolved with the basic thermodynamics of the lapse rate, as shown in this post today by Dr. Claes Johnson, Professor of Applied Mathematics, KTH:

Faint Young Sun Paradox Resolved

The faint young Sun paradox describes the apparent contradiction between observations of liquidwater early in the Earth's history and the astrophysical expectation that the Sun's output would be only 70% as intense during that epoch as it is during the modern epoch. The issue was raised by astronomers Carl Sagan and George Mullen in 1972.

The analysis of the lapse rate in earlier posts suggests the following resolution of the paradox:

A reduction of 30% of the insolation could mean a reduction from 180 to 125 W/m2 absorbed by the Earth surface, and a reduction of 140 to 100 W/m2 to be radiated from the tropopause, assuming 40 W/m2 directly radiated through the atmospheric window in both cases. 

This would require a drop in the temperature of the tropopause from - 50 C to - 68 C (from 223 K to 205 K by Stefan-Boltzmann with 223 =(140/5.66)^0.25 x 100). The Earth surface temperature could then remain at + 15 C if the lapse rate increased from the present 6.5 C/km to 8.3 C/km. 

The maximal lapse rate is 10 C/km and could be attained in an atmosphere without thermodynamics, in an atmosphere at rest without motion of the air, with heat transfer by conduction and radiation but no thermodynamics of convection and evaporation/condensation. 

An effect of thermodynamics in the present atmosphere can thus be viewed as a reduction of the lapse rate from 10 to 6.5 C/km with the difference increasing with the vigor of the thermodynamics. With a less vigorous atmosphere the lapse rate could thus increase from 6.5 to 8.3 C/km and thus sustain the same surface temperature with only 70% of the input from the Sun of today. 

In the extreme case of an atmosphere without motion with a lapse rate of 10 C/km,  a 50% Sun would thus be enough to sustain comfortable organic life at + 15 C, thus very early in the history of the solar system.  Organic life is supposed to be 4 billion years old, apparently ignited by a young 50% Sun. 

The argument supports the idea of the thermodynamics of the atmosphere as an air conditioner acting to reduce the lapse rate and thus cool the Earth surface as the inside, with the the tropopause as the outside with a temperature set by the input via Stefan-Boltzmann. 

Abstract from Geophysical Research Letters:

Faint young Sun problem more severe due to ice-albedo feedback and higher rotation rate of the early Earth

During the Archean (3.8–2.5 billion years ago), the Sun was up to 25% less luminous than today, yet there is strong evidence that the Earth's ocean surface was not completely frozen. The most obvious solutions to this ‘faint young Sun problem’ demand high concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. Here we present the first comprehensive 3-dimensional simulations of the Archean climate that include processes as the sea-ice albedo feedback and the higher rotation rate of the Earth. These effects lead to CO₂ partial pressures required to prevent the Earth from freezing that are significantly higher than previously thought. For the early Archean, we find a critical CO₂ partial pressure of 0.4 bar in contrast to 0.06 bar estimated in previous studies with 1-dimensional radiative-convective models. Our results suggest that currently favored greenhouse solutions could be in conflict with constraints emerging for the middle and late Archean.

New paper finds climate models are unable to reproduce ENSO and other teleconnections

A new paper published in the the International Meteorological Association journal Tellus finds that state-of-the-art climate models are not able to reproduce atmospheric teleconnections, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation [ENSO]. According to the authors, "Due to internally generated [natural] climate variability, the models are not able to reproduce the observed temporal behaviour [behavior over time]." Teleconnections such as ENSO and other natural ocean/atmospheric oscillations dominate climate and extreme weather worldwide. The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed publications demonstrating that state-of-the-art climate models are not able to reproduce the most fundamental aspects of climate in the past, including teleconnections/ocean oscillations, clouds, wind speeds, droughts, floods, and extreme weather. The models therefore cannot possibly provide skillful projections of climate in the future. 

How well do state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models reproduce atmospheric teleconnection patterns?

Dörthe Handorf, Klaus Dethloff

Abstract

This article evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce the low-frequency variability of the mid-tropospheric winter flow of the Northern Hemisphere in terms of atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Therefore, multi-model simulations for present-day conditions, performed for the 4th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have been analysed and compared with re-analysis data sets. The spatial patterns of atmospheric teleconnections are reproduced reasonably by most of the models. The comparison of coupled with atmosphere-only runs confirmed that a better representation of the forcing by sea surface temperatures has the potential to slightly improve the representation of only wave train-like patterns. Due to internally generated climate variability, the models are not able to reproduce the observed temporal behaviour. Insights into the dynamical reasons for the limited skill of climate models in reproducing teleconnections have been obtained by studying the relation between major teleconnections and zonal wind variability patterns. About half of the models are able to reproduce the observed relationship. For these cases, the quality of simulated teleconnection patterns is largely determined by the quality of zonal wind variability patterns. Therefore, improvements of simulated eddy-mean flow interaction have the potential to improve the atmospheric teleconnections.

New paper finds temperatures in Patagonia warmer than the present during Medieval Warming Period

A new paper published in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology reconstructs temperatures in Patagonia, Chile over the past 1,600 years and finds temperatures were warmer during the Medieval Warming Period in comparison to the 20th century. The authors find "warmer temperatures [than 20th century mean] from AD 600 to AD 1150 and colder temperatures from AD 1200 to AD 1450." The paper also notes climate was much more variable and extreme in the past, stating, "From AD 1450 to AD 1700 our reconstruction shows a period with stronger variability and on average higher values than the 20th century mean." The paper adds to the published work of over 1,000 scientists demonstrating that the MWP was as warm or warmer than the present, and also shows climate was more variable and extreme prior to the 20th century.

Late Holocene air temperature variability reconstructed from the sediments of Laguna Escondida, Patagonia, Chile (45°30′S)

• Julie Elbert^a, , , 
• Richard Wartenburger^a, 
• Lucien von Gunten^a, b, 
• Roberto Urrutia^c, 
• Daniela Fischer^a,
• Marian Fujak^d, 
• Yvonne Hamann^e, 
• Nicolas David Greber^f, 
• Martin Grosjean^a

• 
  

• ^a University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research & Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
• ^b PAGES International Project Office, Bern, Switzerland
• ^c Centro de Ciencias Ambientales EULA-Chile, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
• ^d SURF-EAWAG, Duebendorf, Switzerland
• ^e Geological Institute, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
• ^f Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

• http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2012.11.013, How to Cite or Link Using DOI

• Permissions & Reprints

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Abstract

Climate and environmental reconstructions from natural archives are important for the interpretation of current climatic change. Few quantitative high-resolution reconstructions exist for South America which is the only land mass extending from the tropics to the southern high latitudes at 56°S. We analyzed sediment cores from two adjacent lakes in Northern Chilean Patagonia, Lago Castor (45°36′S, 71°47′W) and Laguna Escondida (45°31′S, 71°49′W). Radiometric dating (²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs, ¹⁴C-AMS) suggests that the cores reach back to c. 900 BC (Laguna Escondida) and c. 1900 BC (Lago Castor). Both lakes show similarities and reproducibility in sedimentation rate changes and tephra layer deposition. We found eight macroscopic tephras (0.2–5.5 cm thick) dated at 1950 BC, 1700 BC, at 300 BC, 50 BC, 90 AD, 160 AD, 400 AD and at 900 AD. These can be used as regional time-synchronous stratigraphic markers. The two thickest tephras represent known well-dated explosive eruptions of Hudson volcano around 1950 and 300 BC. Biogenic silica flux revealed in both lakes a climate signal and correlation with annual temperature reanalysis data (calibration 1900–2006 AD; Lago Castor r = 0.37; Laguna Escondida r = 0.42, seven years filtered data). We used a linear inverse regression plus scaling model for calibration and leave-one-out cross-validation (RMSEv = 0.56 °C) to reconstruct sub decadal-scale temperature variability for Laguna Escondida back to AD 400. The lower part of the core from Laguna Escondida prior to AD 400 and the core of Lago Castor are strongly influenced by primary and secondary tephras and, therefore, not used for the temperature reconstruction. The temperature reconstruction from Laguna Escondida shows cold conditions in the 5th century (relative to the 20th century mean), warmer temperatures from AD 600 to AD 1150 and colder temperatures from AD 1200 to AD 1450. From AD 1450 to AD 1700 our reconstruction shows a period with stronger variability and on average higher values than the 20th century mean. Until AD 1900 the temperature values decrease but stay slightly above the 20th century mean. Most of the centennial-scale features are reproduced in the few other natural climate archives in the region. The early onset of cool conditions from c. AD 1200 onward seems to be confirmed for this region.

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Highlights

► We analyzed sediment cores from two adjacent lakes in Northern Chilean Patagonia. ► Within the last 3600 years we dated eight tephra layers. ► Biogenic silica flux is correlated to air temperature from AD 1900 to AD 2006. ► A temperature reconstruction is developed for Laguna Escondida back to AD 400.

New paper finds climate responds to short and long-term changes in solar activity

A new paper published in The Holocene finds a significant link between solar activity and climate over the past 1000 years. According to the authors, "Our results suggest that the climate responds to both the 11 yr solar cycle and to long-term changes in solar activity and in particular solar minima." The authors also find "a link between the 11 yr solar cycle and summer precipitation variability since around 1960" and that "Solar minima are in this period associated with minima in summer precipitation, whereas the amount of summer precipitation increases during periods with higher solar activity."

IRBSi is the proxy for precipitation/climate change and shows good agreement with solar activity. Figure 12. The comparison between the graphs of the _IR-BSi and that of the solar cycles shows good agreement between the percentage of mineral materials of allochthonous and solar cycles reconstructed on the basis of changes in concentrations of ¹⁴ C in macrofossils. A good agreement is also evident between the concentrations of ¹⁸ O of foraminifera in the Norwegian Sea and the index _IR-BSi.

Solar forcing of climate during the last millennium recorded in lake sediments from northern Sweden

1. U Kokfelt uk@geo.ku.dk
   1. University of Copenhagen, Denmark
2. R Muscheler
   1. Lund University, Sweden

Abstract

We report on a sediment record from a small lake within the subarctic wetland complex Stordalen in northernmost Sweden covering the last 1000 years. Variations in the content of minerogenic material are found to follow reconstructed variations in the activity of the Sun between the 13th and 18th centuries. Periods of low solar activity are associated with minima in minerogenic material and vice versa. A comparison between the sunspot cycle and a long instrumental series of summer precipitation further reveals a link between the 11 yr solar cycle and summer precipitation variability since around 1960. Solar minima are in this period associated with minima in summer precipitation, whereas the amount of summer precipitation increases during periods with higher solar activity. Our results suggest that the climate responds to both the 11 yr solar cycle and to long-term changes in solar activity and in particular solar minima, causing dry conditions with resulting decreased runoff.

Paper finds the Gulf of Maine has cooled ~2°C over past 1000 years

A doctoral dissertation from the Univ. of Maine reconstructs temperatures of the Gulf of Maine during the past 1000 years and finds temperatures were about  2°C warmer than the present during the Medieval Warming Period 1000 years ago. According to the author, 

"These data indicate that the Gulf of Maine has undergone considerable changes during the last millennium, and specifically the shell-derived temperature record suggests that the Gulf of Maine has cooled by ~ 2 °C."

 

Full dissertation:

A LATE HOLOCENE RECONSTRUCTION OF OCEAN CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE GULF OF MAINE, USA, BASED ON CALIBRATED ISOTOPE RECORDS AND GROWTH HISTORIES FROM THE LONG-LIVED OCEAN QUAHOG (ARCTICA ISLANDICA L.)

Alan D. Wanamaker Jr..

Paper shows solar activity at end of 20th century was near highest levels of past 11,500 years

A paper published in Astronomy & Astrophysics reconstructs solar activity over the Holocene and finds solar activity at the end of the 20th century was near the highest levels of the entire 11,500 year record. Over the past 2,500 years, the paper shows a 'hockey stick' of solar activity, with a sharp increase following the end of the Little Ice Age in the 1800's. 

Multiple peer-reviewed publications have shown that small changes in solar activity can have greatly amplified effects upon climate via a variety of mechanisms, including:

1. Galactic cosmic rays/clouds

2. Ocean oscillations, which have been shown in multiple studies to be driven by solar activity
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=solar+ocean+oscillations

3. Global brightening following the ice age scare of the 1970′s, due to decreased aerosols/clouds noted in multiple studies around the globe
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=solar

4. Effects on ozone production from large changes in solar UV within and between solar cycles, which has large secondary effects on surface temperature
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=ozone&max-results=20&by-date=false

5. Forcing due to changes in length of day [LOD]
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=length+of+day

Reconstructed Total Solar Irradiance [TSI] over the past 11,500 years shown in top graph, and a blow-up of past 3000 years shown in bottom graph

A&A 531, A6 (2011)

Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene^⋆,⋆⋆

L. E. A. Vieira^1,2, S. K. Solanki^1,3, N. A. Krivova¹ and I. Usoskin⁴

¹ Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Max-Planck-Str. 2, 37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany
e-mail: luis.vieira@cnrs-orleans.fr
² Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l’Environnement et de l’Espace (LPC2E/CNRS), 3A, Avenue de la Recherche, 45071 Orléans Cedex 2, France
³ School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Gyeonggi, 446-701, Korea
⁴ Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory (Oulu Unit), POB 3000, Universiy of Oulu, Finland 

Abstract

Context. Long-term records of solar radiative output are vital for understanding solar variability and past climate change. Measurements of solar irradiance are available for only the last three decades, which calls for reconstructions of this quantity over longer time scales using suitable models.

Aims. We present a physically consistent reconstruction of the total solar irradiance for the Holocene.

Methods. We extend the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) models to estimate the evolution of the total (and partly spectral) solar irradiance over the Holocene. The basic assumption is that the variations of the solar irradiance are due to the evolution of the dark and bright magnetic features on the solar surface. The evolution of the decadally averaged magnetic flux is computed from decadal values of cosmogenic isotope concentrations recorded in natural archives employing a series of physics-based models connecting the processes from the modulation of the cosmic ray flux in the heliosphere to their record in natural archives. We then compute the total solar irradiance (TSI) as a linear combination of the jth and jth + 1 decadal values of the open magnetic flux. In order to evaluate the uncertainties due to the evolution of the Earth’s magnetic dipole moment, we employ four reconstructions of the open flux which are based on conceptually different paleomagnetic models.

Results. Reconstructions of the TSI over the Holocene, each valid for a different paleomagnetic time series, are presented. Our analysis suggests that major sources of uncertainty in the TSI in this model are the heritage of the uncertainty of the TSI since 1610 reconstructed from sunspot data and the uncertainty of the evolution of the Earth’s magnetic dipole moment. The analysis of the distribution functions of the reconstructed irradiance for the last 3000 years, which is the period that the reconstructions overlap, indicates that the estimates based on the virtual axial dipole moment are significantly lower at earlier times than the reconstructions based on the virtual dipole moment. We also present a combined reconstruction, which represents our best estimate of total solar irradiance for any given time during the Holocene.

Conclusions. We present the first physics-based reconstruction of the total solar irradiance over the Holocene, which will be of interest for studies of climate change over the last 11 500 years. The reconstruction indicates that the decadally averaged total solar irradiance ranges over approximately 1.5 W/m² from grand maxima to grand minima.

New paper points to cooler Europe & N America in the 21st century than predicted by climate models

Climate model is first to study climate effects of Arctic hurricanesby Staff WritersAmherst MA (SPX) Dec 20, 2012

These polar storms can have hurricane-strength winds and are common over the polar North Atlantic, but are missing from climate prediction models due to their small size. Credit: Courtesy of NEODAAS Dundee Satellite Receiving Station.

Though it seems like an oxymoron, Arctic hurricanes happen, complete with a central "eye," extreme low barometric pressure and towering 30-foot waves that can sink small ships and coat metal platforms with thick ice, threatening oil and gas exploration.

Now climate scientists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and in England report the first conclusive evidence that Arctic hurricanes, also known as polar lows, play a significant role in driving ocean water circulation and climate.

Results point to potentially cooler conditions in Europe and North America in the 21st century than other models predict.

Geoscientist Alan Condron at UMass Amherst and Ian Renfrew at the University of East Anglia, U.K., write in the current issue of Nature Geoscience that every year thousands of these strong cyclones or polar lows occur over Arctic regions in the North Atlantic, but none are simulated by the latest climate prediction models, which makes it difficult to reliably forecast climate change in Europe and North America over the next couple of decades.

"Before polar lows were first seen by satellites, sailors frequently returned from the Arctic seas with stories of encounters with fierce storms that seemed to appear out of nowhere," says Condron, a physical oceanographer.

"Because of their small size, these storms were often missing from their weather charts, but they are still capable of producing hurricane-force winds and waves over 11 meters high (36 feet)."

He and Renfrew say that despite the fact that literally thousands of polar lows occur over the Arctic region of the North Atlantic ocean every year, none are simulated by even the most sophisticated climate models.

To understand the importance of these storms on climate, Condron and Renfrew therefore turned to a new, state-of-the-art climate model to simulate the high wind speeds associated with these "missing" storms.

"By using higher resolution modeling we can more accurately simulate the high wind speeds and influence of polar lows on the ocean," Condron says.

"The lower-resolution models currently used to make climate predictions very much miss the level of detail required to accurately simulate these storms."

He and Renfrew find that by removing heat from the ocean, polar lows influence the sinking of the very dense cold water in the North Atlantic that drives the large-scale ocean circulation or "conveyer belt" that is known as the thermohaline circulation. It transports heat to Europe and North America.

"By simulating polar lows, we find that the area of the ocean that becomes denser and sinks each year increases and causes the amount of heat being transported towards Europe to intensify," Condron points out.

"The fact that climate models are not simulating these storms is a real problem," he adds, "because these models will wrongly predict how much heat is being moving northward towards the poles.

This will make it very difficult to reliably predict how the climate of Europe and North America will change in the near future."

Condron also notes that other research groups have found that the number of polar lows might decrease in the next 20 to 50 years.

"If this is true, we could expect to see an accompanying weakening of the thermohaline circulation that might be able to offset some of the warming predicted for Europe and North America in the near future."

EPA fracking tests tainted & undermined by the US Geological Survey

The EPA's Tainted Fracking Tests

The agency's groundwater contamination finding is undermined by the U.S. Geological Survey.

By KEITH MAUCK

WSJ.COM 1/2/13: It has been four decades since Richard Nixon launched "Project Independence" with the goal of making the United States energy independent. All presidents since then have said they shared that goal, yet never has it been within reach as it is today—thanks to domestic natural gas and especially to the extraction method known as hydraulic fracturing. The International Energy Agency estimates that such technologies could allow the U.S. to supplant Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer by 2020. But, as ever, government regulation may stand in the way.

Hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," uses water and trace amounts of chemicals to create tiny fissures in deep-rock formations and coax energy-laden molecules to flow toward the surface. Fracking technology is driving America's oil and shale-gas boom, yet a White House executive order from April directs no fewer than 13 federal agencies to consider new regulations on fracking—even as it is already regulated by the states.

In recent years the federal Environmental Protection Agency has investigated fracking in three locations. In Texas and Pennsylvania, the EPA was unable to establish a link between fracking and groundwater contamination, the main ill effect that critics warn against. (Fracking contamination is the theme of "Promised Land," a movie starring Matt Damon that opened last week.)

But the agency claims to have found a smoking gun at its third test site, in Pavillion, Wyo. There, according to draft findings, EPA investigators found "compounds likely associated with gas production practices, including hydraulic fracturing" appearing at levels "below established health and safety standards."

The Pavillion study involves two water wells drilled by the agency in 2010 to test groundwater quality. Experts from the Wyoming Water Development Commission and elsewhere sharply criticized the EPA's results on several grounds, including that EPA investigators didn't follow their own guidelines on the timeliness of the testing and the purity of the water samples. The federal Bureau of Land Management said that "much more robust" testing would be needed to properly draw conclusions.

So the EPA agreed to test the wells again, in April and May of last year 2012. In October, it claimed again to have found contaminated water. But this time there was a new wrinkle: The U.S. Geological Survey had conducted tests alongside the EPA, and its investigators reported different results. Unlike the EPA, the USGS failed to find any traces of glycols or 2-butoxyethanol, fracking-related chemicals that could cause serious health issues if they entered the water supply at levels the EPA considers contamination.

Meanwhile, the USGS found significantly lower concentrations of other materials identified by the EPA—including phenol, potassium and diesel-range organics—which might not have resulted from the fracking at all. The phenols were likely introduced accidentally in the laboratory, for example, and potassium might be naturally occurring or the result of potash contained in the cement used to build the EPA wells.

The USGS also noted that in constructing the monitoring wells, the EPA used a "black painted/coated carbon steel casing," and EPA photographs show that investigators used a painted device to catch sand from the wells. The problem is that paint can contain a variety of compounds that distort test results—so it is poor scientific practice to use painted or coated materials in well-monitoring tests.

After initially neglecting to disclose this information, the EPA eventually acknowledged it, but only while attempting to deflect criticism by releasing more test results and claiming that its data are "generally consistent" with the USGS findings. These actions only muddied the matter and postponed the peer-review process until after Jan. 15.

As the Tulsa-based energy and water-management firm ALL Consulting concluded: "Close review of the EPA draft report and associated documents reveals a number of concerns about the methodology, sampling results, and study findings and conclusions. These concerns stem from apparent errors in sampling and laboratory analysis, incomplete information that makes it difficult to assess the validity of the results, and EPA's failure to seriously consider alternative explanations for the results of its investigation. . . . Taken together, these concerns call into question the validity of EPA's analytical results and their conclusions regarding the sources of the reported contamination."

With no clear connection between fracking and groundwater contamination, it is premature and counterproductive to propose new federal regulations on the practice. Shoddy science should not form the basis of federal policy.

The fracking-facilitated development of shale gas and oil could create two million new jobs and billions in tax revenue over the next two decades, according to the research firm IHS Global Insight. Rather than look for reasons to stand in its way, the federal government should embrace hydraulic fracturing and take full advantage of its economic and security benefits.

Mr. Mauck is publisher of GoMarcellusShale.com.

New paper finds climate in Tibet was more stable in the 20th century than prior

A new paper published in Climate of the Past reconstructs the climate of southeast Tibet over 224 years from 1781-2005 and finds, "The climate appears drier and more stable in the 20th century than previously." The paper contradicts claims of climate alarmists that global warming causes an increase of extreme weather or extreme precipitation. In addition, the paper finds cloud cover decreased during the 20th century in comparison to the 19th century, which could amplify solar effects on temperature. According to the authors, "The occurrence of years of extreme low or high cloud index appears to have strongly decreased since the 1920s, suggesting a relatively stable summer moisture condition in southeast Tibet in spite of the increasing [alleged] impact of human activities on climate."

The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed papers demonstrating that a warmer climate is a more benign and stable climate, with less extremes of precipitation, floods, droughts, and weather.

Top graph shows dO18, a proxy for precipitation and temperature. Precipitation was more variable and extreme during the 19th century than the 20th. Bottom graph shows reconstructed cloud cover, with decreased cloud cover in the 20th century compared to the 19th. 

Clim. Past, 8, 205-213, 2012
www.clim-past.net/8/205/2012/
doi:10.5194/cp-8-205-2012
Reconstruction of southeast Tibetan Plateau summer climate using tree ring δ¹⁸O: moisture variability over the past two centuries

C. Shi^1,2,6, V. Daux², Q.-B. Zhang¹, C. Risi³, S.-G. Hou⁴, M. Stievenard², M. Pierre², Z. Li⁵, and V. Masson-Delmotte<sup>2

1</sup>State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China
²Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212, IPSL/CEA/CNRS/UVSQ Bat 701, L'Orme des Merisiers, CEA Saclay, 91 191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France
³CIRES, University of Colorado, 80309 Boulder CO, USA
⁴Key Laboratory for Coast and Island Development, Ministry of Education, School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, 22 Hankou Road, Nanjing 210093, China
⁵Research center For Eco-Environment Change, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
⁶Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Abstract. A tree-ring δ¹⁸O chronology of Linzhi spruce, spanning from AD 1781 to 2005, was developed in Bomi, Southeast Tibetan Plateau (TP). During the period with instrumental data (AD 1961–2005), this record is strongly correlated with regional CRU (Climate Research Unit) summer cloud data, which is supported by a precipitation δ¹⁸O simulation conducted with the isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model LMDZiso. A reconstruction of a regional summer cloud index, based upon the empirical relationship between cloud and diurnal temperature range, was therefore achieved. This index reflects regional moisture variability in the past 225 yr. The climate appears drier and more stable in the 20th century than previously. The drying trend in late 19th century of our reconstruction is consistent with a decrease in the TP glacier accumulation recorded in ice cores. An exceptional dry decade is documented in the 1810s, possibly related to the impact of repeated volcanic eruptions on monsoon flow.

Final Revised Paper (PDF, 1927 KB)   Supplement (177 KB)   Discussion Paper (CPD)