Tuesday, May 15, 2012

New paper finds up to 72% of temperature increase over past 150 years due to the Sun

A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds that up to 72% of the temperature increase over the last 150 years can be explained by the length of solar cycles, and that ocean currents may act to reinforce solar influences on climate. The paper predicts the long current sunspot cycle will result in "lower temperatures during the next [solar] cycle" with a "1 °C or more temperature drop predicted 2009–2020 for certain locations."

The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24

  • Jan-Erik Solheima, Corresponding author contact information, E-mail the corresponding author, 
  • Kjell Stordahlb, E-mail the corresponding author, 
  • Ole Humlumc, d, E-mail the corresponding author
  • a Department of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø, N-9037, Tromsø, Norway
  • b Telenor Norway, Fornebu, Norway
  • c Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway
  • d Department of Geology, University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway
  • Received 22 June 2011. Revised 2 February 2012. Accepted 7 February 2012. Available online 16 February 2012.

Abstract

Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least View the MathML source from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal.

Highlights

► A longer solar cycle predicts lower temperatures during the next cycle. ► A 1 °C or more temperature drop is predicted 2009–2020 for certain locations. ► Solar activity may have contributed 40% or more to the last century temperature increase. ► A lag of 11 years gives maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature.

References from the paper are among the hundreds of peer-reviewed studies showing significant solar influence on climate:

References

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New paper finds planetary motions explain climate; predicts stable climate

A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds "that the GCMs [climate models] fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model [based on solar system planetary motions] is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is shown to be able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 1850–1950, and vice versa." The new harmonic model predicts that "The climate will likely stay steady until 2030/2040 and may warm by about 0.3-1.2 °C by 2100."

Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models

  • Nicola ScafettaCorresponding author contact information, E-mail the corresponding author, E-mail the corresponding author
  • ACRIM (Active Cavity Radiometer Solar Irradiance Monitor Lab) & Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
  • Received 1 August 2011. Revised 9 December 2011. Accepted 10 December 2011. Available online 20 December 2011.
Referred to by

Abstract

We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all CMIP3 available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007)to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed astronomical empirical climate model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that, in previous works (Scafetta, 2010b, 2011b), have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, which is mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model (which herein uses cycles with 9.1, 10–10.5, 20–21, 60–62 year periods) is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is shown to be able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 1850–1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likely related to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10–10.5, 20–21 and 60–62 year cycles are synchronous to solar and heliospheric planetary oscillations. We show that the IPCC GCM's claim that all warming observed from 1970 to 2000 has been anthropogenically induced is erroneous because of the GCM failure in reconstructing the quasi 20-year and 60-year climatic cycles. Finally, we show how the presence of these large natural cycles can be used to correct the IPCC projected anthropogenic warming trend for the 21st century. By combining this corrected trend with the natural cycles, we show that the temperature may not significantly increase during the next 30 years mostly because of the negative phase of the 60-year cycle. If multisecular natural cycles (which according to some authors have significantly contributed to the observed 1700–2010 warming and may contribute to an additional natural cooling by 2100) are ignored, the same IPCC projected anthropogenic emissions would imply a global warming by about 0.3–1.2 °C by 2100, contrary to the IPCC 1.0–3.6 °C projected warming. The results of this paper reinforce previous claims that the relevant physical mechanisms that explain the detected climatic cycles are still missing in the current GCMs and that climate variations at the multidecadal scales are astronomically induced and, in first approximation, can be forecast.

Highlights

► The IPCC (CMIP3) climate models fail in reproducing observed decadal and multidecadal limate cycles. ► Equivalent cycles are found among the major oscillations of the solar system. ► A correction for the projected anthropogenic warming for the 21st century is proposed. ► A full empirical model is developed for forecasting climate change for a few decades since 2000. ► The climate will likely stay steady until 2030/2040 and may warm by about 0.3-1.2 °C by 2100.
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