Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Meteorologist's poll finds no consensus on climate change & those with liberal political views far more likely to believe in man-made global warming

Meteorologists’ views about global warming:
A survey of American Meteorological Society
professional members

Meteorologists and other atmospheric science experts are playing important roles in helping society respond to climate change. Members of this professional community are not unanimous in their views of climate change, and there has been tension among members of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) who hold different views on the topic.
In January 2012, the AMS surveyed its members via email and found 52 percent believe global warming is happening and is mostly human-caused, while 48 percent do not. The survey also found that scientists with professed liberal political views were far more likely to believe global warming is human-caused than others.
Authors of the survey recommended that the AMS should “acknowledge and explore the uncomfortable fact that political ideology influences the climate change views of meteorology professionals; refute the idea that those who do hold non-majority views just need to be “educated” about climate change; [and] continue to deal with the conflict among members of the meteorology community.”
The “early online release” of the survey, to be published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is available for free viewing athttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00091.1.


  1. see also


  2. The 52/48 percentages are not directly from the study. Is that calculation yours or a quote from somewhere else?
    I see how it was arrived at but it's a pretty misleading summary of the studies actual findings:
    "A very large majority of respondents (89%) indicated that global warming is happening; in contrast few indicated it isn’t happening (4%), or that they “don’t know” (7%). Respondents who indicated that global warming is happening were asked their views about its primary causes; a large majority indicted that human activity (59%), or human activity and natural causes in more or less equal amounts (11%), were the primary causes. Relatively few respondents indicated that the warning is caused primarily by natural causes (6%), although a substantial minority (23%) indicated they don’t believe enough is yet know to determine the degree of human or natural causation."

    1. From Dr. Judith Curry's site:

      Look at the views in column 1, then look at the % in the rightmost column: 52% state the the warming since 1850 is mostly anthropogenic. One common categorization would categorize the other 48% as ‘deniers’.


    2. Nope nowhere does it says anything about 52 percent believe global warming, while 48 percent do not.

      And this is not a survey its a analyse.

      "Our findings regarding the degree of consensus about human-caused climate change
      among the most expert meteorologists are similar to those of Doran and Zimmerman (2009):
      93% of actively publishing climate scientists indicated they are convinced that humans have
      contributed to global warming. Our findings also revealed that majorities of experts view human
      activity as the primary cause of recent climate change: 78% of climate experts actively
      publishing on climate change, 73% of all people actively publishing on climate change, and 62%
      of active publishers who mostly do not publish on climate change. These results, together with
      those of other similar studies, suggest high levels of expert consensus about human-caused
      climate change (Farnsworth & Lichter 2012, Bray 2010)."

      You oblivious didn't do you homework. Why don't you read your own sources?

  3. http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/johnransom/2013/11/25/meteorologists-bail-on-global-warming-n1752592

  4. Read Dr Curry's post above. Column 1 in the paper does show only 52% agree with the IPCC consensus that most of the warming since 1850 is anthropogenic.

  5. http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/12/02/nuttercelli-37-is-the-new-97/


  6. see also Dr. Curry's followup post on the 52% consensus:


  7. To fall into the alarmist category you have to pass three tests: 1. Belief that warming is occurring. 2. That the warming is human caused. 3. That the warming will have catastrophic consequences. 89% pass the first test in the survey. But that figure would include many skeptics. 59% of 89%, or 52.5% pass through the second wicket. But the third criteria was (apparently) not even considered. So the alarmist "consensus" is not valid.

  8. My question is - How many of those who agreed that humans are mostly responsible for global warming believe that the warming we have experienced so far is catastrophic? Certainly it cannot be 100% of those in the warming group.