Friday, November 15, 2013

Was Haiyan the Strongest Storm Ever? No

Was Haiyan the Strongest Storm Ever?

By Cris Larano

WSJ.COM 11/14/13--MANILA—When supertyphoon Haiyan, locally known as Yolanda, made landfall last Friday on Guiuan, a coastal town on the central Philippine island of Samar around 410 miles south of Manila, it was described by some as the strongest storm to make landfall in the world this year, maybe ever. 

So is it?

Data from the national weather bureau, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, or PAGASA, showed that Typhoon Haiyan’s intensity – measured by the wind strength at its center and the speed of gusts at landfall – Haiyan ranks at number 7 among the strongest storms ever to have hit the Philippines.

It could eventually prove to be the deadliest, with the death toll currently at more than 2,300 and mounting. But among the so-called supertyphoons— those with center winds in excess of 134 miles an hour — the title goes to Joan.

Known locally as Sening, that storm made landfall in Virac, Catanduanes province, north of the current devastation and around 236 miles south of Manila. When it hit, Joan had center winds of 171 miles per hour and gusts of 193 miles per hour, compared to Haiyan’s 147 mph.


Are Typhoon Disasters Getting More Common? No



  2. Actually, Typhoon Sening made initial landfall over the town of Cabugao, situated several kilometers east of Virac. The intense power of that storm can be attested from what remained of the coconut palms - mere stumps measuring at most two feet high.

  3. The alarmists seem to be claiming that Yolanda was the strongest Typhoon AT LANDFALL ever. But they use the satellite estimate of 195 mph sustained wind speed to do this. By my understanding, The actual wind speed has been confirmed on the ground by the Philippine Meteorological Association to be 148 mph sustained for 10 minutes. To get sustained speeds for 1 minute the rule of thumb is multiply by 1.14 (generous to the alarmists) to get about 169 mph. My question is, were there any other Philippine typhoons that had a sustained wind speed AT LANDFALL this high? Were there any historical typhoons in general that had wind speeds this high or higher AT LAND FALL? I know there were hurricanes that had higher wind speeds like Camile for example.

  4. Hi,
    Could you please find out when did the Philippines start to record the average and top speeds at landing for storms.

    The older storm records do not have this info.

    That would put your remarks in perspective, as the 7th since ... when these measurements started.

  5. Fact: Haiyan is 58th Super Typhoon since 1950 to reach central pressure of 900 mb or lower from historical records.

    50 of 58 Super Typhoons with pressure of 900 mb or lower occurred from 1950-1987 -- only 8 in past 25 years.

  6. How the BBC turned a catastrophic crisis into a drama about global warming
    Listeners given a bogus message on Radio 4's Today programme
    They were told storms like Typhoon Haiyan are linked to global warming

    Read more:


  8. • A study based on data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the Japan Meteorological Agency shows the number of typhoons making landfall in the Philippines has declined since 1990.

    * Haiyan is the 58th Super Typhoon since 1950 to reach central pressure of 900 mb or lower from historical records.

    * A study published this year by the American Meteorological Society states in the North Pacific ‘overall tropical cyclone activity shows a significant decrease’ since 1998.

    • The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report: There have been ‘NO significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century’.

    • There have been 35 cyclones in the last 800 years which killed more than 10,000 people. Thirty-three of them occurred with CO2 below 350 PPM. The deadliest one in 1970 was blamed on global COOLING at the time.

    • Quaternary Science Review: Typhoons in Japan are at the lowest levels of the past 3,500 years and that North Atlantic hurricanes were more frequent/severe than modern times during various intervals over the past 3,000 years.

    • This year has been the quietest Atlantic hurricane season for decades. No Category 3 or stronger storm has made landfall in the US since Katrina in 2005 – the longest hurricane ‘drought’ on record.

    • A new study published last week said the rate of sea level rise has diminished by 44 per cent since 2004, to just 1.8mm per year – 18cm (7in) per century. The reason is the 17-years-and-counting global warming ‘pause’, which was not predicted by computer models.

    • Haiyan is the 58th Super Typhoon since 1950 to reach central pressure of 900 mb or lower from historical records.

  9. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) denies that there is good evidence that global warming-man-made or not-causes greater frequency or intensity of hurricanes. In its 2012 special report on extreme weather events it said, "There is low confidence in any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (i.e., intensity, frequency, duration), after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities." In its just-released Fifth Assessment Report, it said, "Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century …. No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.... In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low."

  10. Re claims the storm surge was amplified by man:

    National Hurricane Center's Stanley Goldenberg: "If someone says Sandy was stronger due to AGW, that goes against even the current hurricane climate studies which suggest that in the future, there could be a very slight increase in intensity for the stronger storms. … although Sandy was strong for that region, it was by no means among the strongest Atlantic hurricanes. As for increased flooding due to sea-level rise-firstly the total sea-level rise since the great 1938 Hurricane is only about 7 inches, and about 1/2 of that is due to land subsidence. Of the other several inches, some would certainly be due to natural climate fluctuations (especially the natural warming since the end of the Little Ice Age in the mid-1800's) and if there is any contribution from AGW, it would be at the most on the order of a few inches. Compared to the contribution from the lunar high tide and the actual storm surge (together totaling 10–17.5 feet in the hardest hit regions), these few inches … are hardly significant."


  12. "It could eventually prove to be the deadliest, with the death toll currently at more than 2,300 and mounting"

    Wrong, also.. Not even close.

    Here's a list of the deadliest Tropical Cyclones in History: