Reposted from Dr. Howard Hayden, Professor Emeritus of Physics, University of Connecticut, a summary of the IPCC scientific travesty in a single graph:
IPCC's Confidence Grows as Models Get Worse
The IPCC is now producing its 5th Assessment Report, some of which is now in the public domain. See http://ipcc.ch/
In the First Assessment Report (FAR1990), they were confident that humanity is causing global warming.
Second..(SAR 1995)..Increased confidence
Third..(TAR 2001) "Likely"
Fourth (AR4 2007) "Very likely"
Fifth.. (AR5 2013) "Extremely Likely"
Oh, and "Global Warming" became "Climate Change" along the way.
Meanwhile, their models diverge more and more from reality.
Roy Spencer (www.DrRoySpencer.com) has produced a graph showing the results of 73 climate models, as compared with temperature anomalies measured by weather balloons and by satellite.
For the release dates of theAssessment Reports, we have inserted arrows showing the divergence from reality, and then used those data to show how IPCC's confidence grows while the models get worse.
see also Dr. Hayden's presentation on climate sensitivity and confusion of cause and effect and The science is settled. Al Gore says so!
The IPCC is now producing its 5th Assessment Report, some of which is now in the public domain. See http://ipcc.ch/
In the First Assessment Report (FAR1990), they were confident that humanity is causing global warming.
Second..(SAR 1995)..Increased confidence
Third..(TAR 2001) "Likely"
Fourth (AR4 2007) "Very likely"
Fifth.. (AR5 2013) "Extremely Likely"
Oh, and "Global Warming" became "Climate Change" along the way.
Meanwhile, their models diverge more and more from reality.
Roy Spencer (www.DrRoySpencer.com) has produced a graph showing the results of 73 climate models, as compared with temperature anomalies measured by weather balloons and by satellite.
For the release dates of theAssessment Reports, we have inserted arrows showing the divergence from reality, and then used those data to show how IPCC's confidence grows while the models get worse.
see also Dr. Hayden's presentation on climate sensitivity and confusion of cause and effect and The science is settled. Al Gore says so!
Even if climate sensitivity is lower than what the models show, it's still the case that most of the warming since 1950 is due to man!
ReplyDeleteThe two do not contradict!
Calculate what climate sensitivity you need for most of the warming since 1950 to be natural. You'll find it's something like 1.6C per doubling of CO2. That's a CS that even Otto et al do not support.
So quite clearly given what is known the IPCC attribution statement that most warming since 1950 is extremely likely to be human caused is correct.
The increase in certainty since AR4 is also largely due to the passage of time. More time = more CO2 = higher attribution for any given CS.
If anything the IPCC attribution statement is conservative. It could easily be justified that 75%+ of warming since 1950 is likely human caused.
"Even if climate sensitivity is lower than what the models show, it's still the case that most of the warming since 1950 is due to man!"
DeleteFalse, non-sequitur
Positive phase of the AMO & PDO, and the time-integral of accumulated solar energy explain 90-96% of climate variability of not only the past 60 years, but the entire 163 years of observations
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/08/natural-climate-change-has-been-hiding.html
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=pangburn
and others
"Calculate what climate sensitivity you need for most of the warming since 1950 to be natural. You'll find it's something like 1.6C per doubling of CO2."
Hmmm, funny that Roy Spencer just published a paper finding CS of 1.3C
http://t.co/Imj2o2uFd3
Most recent 100 posts demonstrating why the IPCC CS is highly exaggerated and debunks the IPCC attribution statement:
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=climate+sensitivity
"If anything the IPCC attribution statement is conservative. It could easily be justified that 75%+ of warming since 1950 is likely human caused."
Now you've proven beyond a reasonable doubt a complete disrespect for the scientific method. LOLwot, go back to trolling at Judith Curry's site, where you have become a laughing stock that most just ignore. I have no further time to explain the scientific method to you. Bye
"it's still the case that most of the warming since 1950 is due to man!"
ReplyDeleteRubbish.
Stop making stuff up.