Friday, November 15, 2013

UN climate conference COP19 tells blatant lies to the public about sea level rise & snow cover

The UN COP19 climate conference public educational materials entitled "Do people have an influence on the climate change?" make the blatantly false claim that "during the last hundred years...the sea level increased for the first time since the last ice age (over 20cm since 1870, and the pace of the increase is getting faster)," thereby implying man is the cause of sea level rise and that the rise is accelerating.
Do people have an influence on the climate change?
  • Climate change is a natural phenomenon which has occurred many times before on Earth, and depends on factors such as: solar activity, the properties of the surface of Earth, and composition of the atmosphere.
  • There is no doubt that now another climate change takes place - during the last hundred years the average global temperature rose by 0.74°C[1], the sea level increased for the first time since the last ice age (over 20cm since 1870, and the pace of the increase is getting faster), glaciers melt and the snow cap of the Northern hemisphere decreases.
...Sources: IPCC4 2007; The Science of Climate Change (Australian Academy of Science)  H/T Tom Nelson

Fact Check:


Sea levels have been rising naturally for the past 20,000 years since the peak of the last ice age, and at much, much faster rates in the past (up to 40 times faster than today). Sea level rise greatly decelerated about 8,000 years ago to rates similar to today:




Sea levels are currently rising 4 to 8 inches per century, and there is no acceleration, which means there is no evidence of a human influence on sea levels.


References finding either no acceleration or a deceleration of sea level rise during the 20th and 21st centuries:
 
Chen et al 2013  
JM Gregory et al Journal of Climate 2012 
M Beenstock et al 2013 
NOAA 2005-2012 Sea Level Budget 
Dean & Houston 2011 & 2013 
Scafetta 2013 
Holgate 2007 
Boretti 2012 
Morner 2004 
Jevrejeva et al 2006 & 2008 
W√∂ppelmann et al 2009 
Roemmich et al 2013 
          Morner 2014
IPCC 2007: 
"no long-term acceleration of sea level has been identified using 20th-century data alone."  
IPCC 2013: 
"It is likely that GMSL [Global Mean Sea Level] rose between 1920 and 1950 at a rate comparable to that observed between 1993 and 2010"


...the authors find that sea level rise is a localized rather than global phenomenon, with 61 percent of tide gauge records demonstrating no change in sea levels, 4 percent showing a decrease, and a minority of 35 percent showing a rise. This implies relative sea level change is primarily related to subsidence or post-glacial rebound (land height changes) rather than melting ice or steric sea level changes (thermal expansion from warming). Steric sea level rise from thermal expansion turned negative in 2007. 
Sea levels during the last interglacial were 31 feet higher than the present, and Greenland 8 degrees C warmer than the present, without anthropogenic forcing. There is no evidence suggesting the current interglacial is any different.

The Northern Hemisphere snow cap has been increasing and hit record levels in 2012:

see also: 
UN'S WARSAW CLIMATE CONFERENCE MAKES DESPERATE JUNK SCIENCE SEA LEVEL CLAIM

7 comments:

  1. "Sea levels are currently rising 4 to 8 inches per century, and there is no acceleration, which means there is no evidence of a human influence on sea levels."

    That's not true. The evidence for acceleration is ambiguous. There is both evidence for and against. Also human influence doesn't require acceleration. It's also an absurdism because we know humans have influenced sea level rise because humans have caused heat gain in the oceans.

    "Sea levels have been rising naturally for the past 20,000 years since the peak of the last ice age, and at much, much faster rates in the past (up to 40 times faster than today). Sea level rise greatly decelerated about 8,000 years ago to rates similar to today:"

    Evidently not. If sea level had risen over the past 8,000 years at rates similar to today (20cm/century) as you claim, sea level would have risen 16 meters in the last 8,000 years, whereas the graph you post clearly shows it's risen a lot less than that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Utter rubbish.

      Stop making stuff up.

      Delete
    2. All you have to do is download the data from Colorado University's Sea Level Research Group. A simple comparison of the first ten years (1992 - 2003) with the last ten years ( 2003 - 2013) and you will see that the rate of sea level has declined over that time period. It hasn't declined by much but it most certainly didn't increase.

      There isn't any ambiguity at all

      Delete
  2. "The evidence for acceleration is ambiguous."

    Once again LOLwol, you make statements without any supporting evidence or citations. I listed 15 citations above supporting my claim of no acceleration. You have provided no citations at all of your claim of possible acceleration.

    "Also human influence doesn't require acceleration. It's also an absurdism because we know humans have influenced sea level rise because humans have caused heat gain in the oceans."

    False, non-sequitur and once again, you provide no citations supporting your claims. Sea levels have been rising for the past 203 years at the same rate with no acceleration, which in fact does indicate that increased greenhouse gases have nothing to do with sea level rise

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/new-paper-finds-sea-levels-rising-at.html

    Increased greenhouse gases have not caused heat gain in the oceans, here's why:

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/09/realclimate-admits-doubling-co2-could.html

    The 0.09C warming of the oceans over the past 55 years [Levitus 2012] is due to the accumulated time-integral of solar activity, from which solar shortwave heats the bulk of the oceans. LWIR from GHGs cannot heat the oceans, proven by the link above.

    How much can 0.09C warming of the oceans heat the atmosphere and Earth surface? A: By a maximum of 0.09C. Citation: 2nd law of thermodynamics.

    "Evidently not. If sea level had risen over the past 8,000 years at rates similar to today (20cm/century) as you claim, sea level would have risen 16 meters in the last 8,000 years, whereas the graph you post clearly shows it's risen a lot less than that."

    In fact, sea levels have risen ~15 meters over the past 8,000 years

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Holocene_Sea_Level.png

    There was a slowdown during the Little Ice Age, the coldest period of the past 10,000 years, but the current rate is nothing unusual, unprecedented, or unnatural

    Some papers show sea levels higher than the present during the Roman or Medieval Warm Periods

    Sea levels were 31 feet higher than the present during the last interglacial, and there is no evidence this interglacial is any different.

    LOLwot, you've proven beyond a reasonable doubt a complete disrespect for the scientific method. Go back to trolling at Judith Curry's site, where you have become a laughing stock that most just ignore. I have no further time to explain the scientific method to you. Bye

    Additional refs on Holocene sea levels:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/04/israel-study-shows-variable-sea-level-in-past-2500-years/

    http://notrickszone.com/2011/02/16/a-level-look-at-sea-levels/

    http://judithcurry.com/2011/07/12/historic-variations-in-sea-levels-part-1-from-the-holocene-to-romans/

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/06/basic-geology-part-3-sea-level-rises-during-interglacial-periods/

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/03/sea-level-change-last-120-million-years.html

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=sea+levels

    ReplyDelete
  3. Seriously, lolwot, look at the data.

    This is no place for shticks.

    ReplyDelete
  4. no acceleration of sea level rise US Gulf coast

    http://climatesanity.wordpress.com/2014/02/17/the-search-for-acceleration-part-9-us-gulf-coast/

    ReplyDelete
  5. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/16/latest-noaa-mean-sea-level-trend-data-through-2013-confirms-lack-of-sea-level-rise-acceleration-2/

    ReplyDelete