Dr. Horst Borchert, the Director of the Department of Physics of the Johannes-Gutenberg Institute, Mainz, Germany, presented a paper,
Using Satellite Measurements to study the Influence of Sun Activity on Terrestrial Weather at the
Space Weather Workshop held in Boulder, Colorado earlier this year. Dr. Borchert finds from satellite measurements that global warming between about 1980 to 2008 was "
not anthropogenic but caused by natural activities of the Sun’s surface." He relates changes of the solar magnetic field to cosmic rays and cloud formation (
the cosmic ray theory of Svensmark et al) and to effects on the North Atlantic Oscillation, which affects weather phenomena around the globe.
Author: Horst Borchert
Using Satellite Measurements to study the Influence of Sun Activity on Terrestrial Weather
Abstract: The time rows of Terrestrial Climate Components (TCC) since the Eighties have shown some strong Influences by Extraterrestrial Components with the beginning of the 22. Sunspot period. Therefore the increase of ground near temperature on earth and oceans (2 –3 m above ground), called Global Temperature, during the warming period between about 1980 and 2008 seems to be
not anthropogenic but caused by natural activities of Sun’s surface.
Some Extraterrestrial Components (EC) can be destined by measurements on the earth’s surface directly or indirectly: (a) The Reduction of Cosmic Rays by the magnetic fields of the sun-winds (Forbush-Reduction) by measuring the neutrons, which are secondary particles (Höhenstrahlung) of Cosmic Rays, and (b) the influence of the sun-winds on earths weather system by calculating the Sun-Wind-Index (SWI) from the difference of magnetic field in antipodal Stations.
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| Winter NAO Index |
The link between TCC and EC is the “
Svensmark – Effect”. It describes the formation of terrestrial clouds by the secondary particles of Cosmic Rays (Similar to Wilson’s Fog Chamber 1911). This effect modulates the
North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO). It can be shown by using measured data, that
the secondary particles of cosmic rays are controlling the NAO and therefore the weather in the Northern Hemisphere especially very strong since 1975. GOES – Satellites, geostationary stationed at about 35,800 km (22,300 miles) in equatorial plane above earth, measure the components of Sun-Wind that earth is exposed. These components are Flares, protons, alphas, electrons and magnetic fields. By correlating these extraterrestrial as well as terrestrial components, one can determine the strength and impact of sun’s activity on the weather on the earth.
Applying this method by using the by NOAA published Data it will be explained that the warming period on earth, that started about 1980 and seems to be ending about 2010, in deed was caused and modulated by sun’s activity: Since 1975 GOES Satellites measured increasing strong flux of solar protons, which penetrated earths magnetic field and influenced the stratospheric O3 layer. Especially in 1989 the components of sun-winds caused strong disturbances of electricity and telemetric networks in the Northern Hemisphere. The magnetic fields reduced the Intensity of Cosmic Rays (Forbush Reduction) in this year partly of about 30% at 56 ° N (Moskau). From 1980 to 2009 Cosmic Rays and Cloudiness, which are delayed about 10 to 12 month, correlated with K~0,8 (Svensmark-Effect). The NAO correlates with Cosmic Rays (K~0,7) and confirms these connections between extraterrestrial and terrestrial components. That leaded finally since 1990 to increasing Sunshine-Duration of about 0,5 h/d and global rays of about 10 W/m2 in yearly averages around 50° N (Mainz) in Central Europe during this warming period. The ground near temperature increases of about 0,9 +-2 °C of the Yearly Averages. The Global Temperature increased since about 1980 more continuously to about 0,6 °C in 2006. With the end of sun’s activity in December 2006 (Sunspot Nr. 930 with “sun-tsunami”) the increase of ground near Temperature ended and weather started to become colder again in winter 2009 to 2010 in Europe and USA. Even the Sun-Wind-Index confirmed these development, it decreased very quick to values beneath 10 nTesla, which was never found since 1910, when it was very cold.
That means, that Measurements of sun wind components by Satellites like GOES help to understand and to forecast terrestrial weather development.
10. März 2010
1) Physikdirector a.D. Diplom-Physiker Dr. Horst Borchert
Geographical Institute of Johannes-Gutenberg Institute; Westring 159, 55120 Mainz
T.: 49 6131 683516, E: bcht01@aol.com, www.umad.de
From Stephen Wilde
ReplyDelete"Since 1975 GOES Satellites measured increasing strong flux of solar protons, which penetrated earths magnetic field and influenced the stratospheric O3 layer"
Nice to see a reference to that. It's an inherent component of the first review of my New Climate Model. See here:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6482
"It seems that at a time of more active sun the troposphere warmed, the stratosphere and mesosphere both cooled and the thermosphere warmed.
What is the most up to date data now that the sun is less active?
Jo Haigh has answered that question exactly as I would have expected. There is now a less active sun and the process is now in reverse.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v467/n7316/full/nature09426.html
Solar proton impacts (rather than UV) on high level ozone especially at the poles due to direction by the magnetic field (they are charged particles) when the sun is more active appear cause ozone depletion from 45Km upwards with the effect of reversing the solar sign from just below the stratopause upwards so as to increase the vertical decline in temperatures and accelerate energy out of the lower stratosphere so as to cool that as well and draw the tropopause higher with the jets moving poleward.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?old=200108015015
Although the above article refers to solar storms the fact is that solar proton quantities ebb and flow in line with the waxing and waning of solar activity with solar storms just being short term spikes.
The opposite process when the sun is less active as currently so the Haigh paper has found increasing ozone above 45Km presumably accompanied by a mesosphere that is no longer cooling and may be warming.
The thermosphere is so thin that the heating of it from direct solar impacts has no significant damping effect on the cooling process that goes on below when the sun is more active.
CFCs and CO2 are therefore not required to account for observations or are far less important than previously proposed."
Interesting. Thanks for the comment and your posts at Climate Realists from which I have learned a lot!
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