New paper finds warming decreases El Ninos & increases La Ninas - opposite of IPCC claims

The IPCC claims that global warming will result in more frequent/stronger El Ninos. However, a paper published today in the journal Paleoceanography finds the opposite weather pattern - La Nina [due to a cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean] - is more frequent/stronger during periods of warming such as the Medieval Warming Period.

PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, doi:10.1029/2011PA002139

Assessing El Niño Southern Oscillation Variability During the Past Millennium

Key Points

• Single specimens of foraminifera are used as a recorded of ENSO variability
• ENSO has remained remarkable constant over the past millennium
• MCA characterized by departures toward stronger/more frequent La Nina

Authors:

Deborah Khider

Lowell D. D. Stott

Julien Emile-Geay

Robert C Thunell

Douglas E. Hammond

We present a reconstruction of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability spanning the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, A.D. 800-1300) and the Little Ice Age (LIA, A.D. 1500-1850). Changes in ENSO are estimated by comparing the spread and symmetry of δ¹⁸O values of individual specimens of the thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifer Pulleniatina obliquiloculata extracted from discrete time horizons of a sediment core collected in the Sulawesi Sea, at the edge of the western tropical Pacific warm pool. The spread of individual δ¹⁸O values is interpreted to be a measure of the strength of both phases of ENSO while the symmetry of the δ¹⁸O distributions is used to evaluate the relative strength/frequency of El Niño and La Niña events. In contrast to previous studies, we use robust and resistant statistics to quantify the spread and symmetry of the δ¹⁸O distributions; an approach motivated by the relatively small sample size and the presence of outliers. Furthermore, we use a pseudo-proxy approach to investigate the effects of the different paleo-environmental factors on the statistics of the δ¹⁸O distributions, which could bias the paleo-ENSO reconstruction. We find no systematic difference in the magnitude/strength of ENSO during the Northern Hemisphere MCA or LIA. However, our results suggest that ENSO during the MCA was skewed toward stronger/more frequent La Niña than El Niño, an observation consistent with the medieval megadroughts documented from sites in western North America.