The relationship between thunderstorm and solar activity for Brazil from 1951 to 2009
- a Camilo Castelo Branco University (Unicastelo), São Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo, 12247-004, Brazil
- b ELAT/CCST, National Institute of Space Research (INPE), São Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo, 12227-010, Brazil
Highlights
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- First results on the relationship between solar and thunderstorm activity in Brazil.
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- Strong evidence of anti-phase correlation between solar and thunderstorm activity in Brazil.
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- New statistical method for evaluating correlation between solar and thunderstorm activity.
Abstract
The goal of this article is to investigate the influence of solar activity on thunderstorm activity in Brazil. For this purpose, thunder day data from seven cities in Brazil from 1951 to 2009 are analyzed with the wavelet method for the first time. To identify the 11-year solar cycle in thunder day data, a new quantity is defined. It is named TD1 and represents the power in 1-year in a wavelet spectrum of monthly thunder day data. The wavelet analysis of TD1 values shows more clear the 11-year periodicity than when it is applied directly to annual thunder day data, as it has been normally investigated in the literature. The use of this new quantity is shown to enhance the capability to identify the 11-year periodicity in thunderstorm data. Wavelet analysis of TD1 indicates that six out seven cities investigated exhibit periodicities near 11 years, three of them significant at a 1% significance level (p < 0.01). Furthermore, wavelet coherence analysis demonstrated that the 11-year periodicity of TD1 and solar activity are correlated with an anti-phase behavior, three of them (the same cities with periodicities with 1% significance level) significant at a 5% significance level (p < 0.05). The results are compared with those obtained from the same data set but using annual thunder day data. Finally, the results are compared with previous results obtained for other regions and a discussion about possible mechanisms to explain them is done. The existence of periodicities around 11 years in six out of seven cities and their anti-phase behavior with respect to 11-year solar cycle suggest a global mechanism probably related to a solar magnetic shielding effect acting on galactic cosmic rays as an explanation for the relationship of thunderstorm and solar activity, although more studies are necessary to clarify its physical origin.
It is simpler than the Svensmark suggestion.
ReplyDeleteAn active sun pulls the climate zones poleward allowing wider subtropical high pressure belts and more solar energy into the oceans.
The warmer oceans then spark off a more vigorous water cycle as a negative system response.
More thunderstorm activity in the tropics.
I'm surprised to see it show up on an 11 year cycle though. I had previously only been considering the process on multidecadal timescales.
Stephen Wilde
Makes complete sense, therefore will be ignored
DeleteA question then arises: what is the mechanism of the solar "pulling". At least Svensmark is suggesting and researching a likely candidate for the mechanism behind the "pulling". Where you start with the "pulling" and use that as a mechanism for the observed effect.
DeleteI suggest this is the nature of true scientific investigation. It recursively exposes questions about lower level mechanisms that underlay the more superficial mechanisms. It does this without a presumption of how many layers there are.
Hence, you both can be right at your individual level of recursion. Neither of you can offer a complete specification of all levels other than it is turtles the rest of the way down from your particular reference point. Counting the turtles is a pointless and endless exercise. It is the NEXT level down that is of interest.
"A question then arises: what is the mechanism of the solar "pulling"
DeleteSee here:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6645
"How The Sun Could Control Earth's Temperature"
In summary,variations in the mix of wavelengths and particles from the sun affect atmospheric chemistry especially involving ozone so as to alter the slope of tropopause height between poles and equator which allows the climate zones to slide to and fro latitudinally beneath the tropopause.
Stephen Wilde
OK. That is an alternative mechanism behind the pulling. Now all that is missing is the proof of either your mechanism or that of Svensmark or both exists.
DeleteThat explanations exist, is not proof of their validity. It is proof only that the explanations exist. It takes a bit more than a pile of words to produce an actual proof.
It's a bit early for 'proof' since the observational records are short and the right data has not been collected.
DeleteHowever, I think that observational support for my scenario is accumulating rapidly.
Stephen Wilde