Sunday, March 30, 2014

New UN IPCC scaremongering on hunger & famine is overblown

The new IPCC report, to be released tomorrow, warns that global warming will cause eight "key risks," all of which are things that have always happened since time immemorial. Among the "key risks" according to the IPCC are that "Some people will go hungry because of warming, drought and severe downpours."

But what do the facts show?

1. Famine and malnourishment have declined rapidly in the past half century

2. World grain yields per hectare have almost doubled since 1960 along with ~0.5C global warming, and show no signs of deceleration of this positive, linear trend from CO2 fertilization and warming. 

Data source for world grain yield

3. Agricultural output is projected to increase from 1800Mt to 3900Mt by the end of the 21st century. 
Ref: M. L. Parry et al 2004

Even under the most pessimistic assumptions, global warming will reduce net agricultural output by only 1.4% by the end of the century. According to the HadCM3 model with a very high climate sensitivity and the A1FI model, global warming will reduce agricultural output by only 1.4% to the end of the century. G. Fischer et al., 2005:2071 and G. Fischer, Shah et al., 2002:109.

4. The "heat or eat" tradeoff of millions of people is largely due to AGW scaremongering, due to high fuel prices from carbon taxes and renewable energy, as well as high food prices due to the biofuel scam and high fuel prices. 

5. There is a small overall wettening trend in global soil moisture 1950-2000

'Global Trends and Variability in Soil Moisture and Drought Characteristics, 1950–2000, from Observation-Driven Simulations of the Terrestrial Hydrologic Cycle' Justin Sheffield and Eric F. Wood, Journal of Climate VOLUME 21, 2007.

6. CO2 fertilization is greening the globe and increasing plant productivity & resistance to drought.

7. Drought is more common during cold periods, less common during warm periods. 

h/t: Tom Nelson @tan123 and Steve Goddard @SteveSGoddard on Twitter
Bjorn Lomberg for many of the above references

Article from the Associated Press by warmist Seth Borenstein, which doesn't seem to take the IPCC "list craze" 8 dire warnings very seriously, joking about "practical advice from house cats," and IPCC scientists taking "the next step, common on Facebook pages: The interactive quiz to determine which global warming problem you most resemble."

Scientists join list craze: 8 reasons to worry about global warming

If you have already read "12 Pieces of Practical Advice from Housecats," now you can move on to "8 Reasons to Worry about Global Warming."
A United Nations panel of scientists is joining the list craze with what they call eight "key risks" that are part of broader "reasons for concern" about climate change.
    It's part of a massive report on how global warming is affecting humans and the planet and how the future will be worse unless something is done about it. The report is being finalized at a meeting this weekend by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
    They assembled the list to "make it understandable and to illustrate the issues that have the greatest potential to cause real harm," the report's chief author, Chris Field of the Carnegie Institution of Science in California, said in an interview.
    A boiled-down version of what the scientists say the warmed-up future holds for Earth if climate change continues: But a draft of the list — called by the acronym RFCs — includes science-heavy language, caveats and uses lowercase Roman numerals, for example using iv instead of 4.
    1. Coastal flooding will kill people and cause destruction.
    2. Some people will go hungry because of warming, drought and severe downpours.
    3. Big cites will be damaged by inland flooding.
    4. Water shortages will make the poor even poorer in rural areas.
    5. Crazy weather, like storms, can make life miserable, damaging some of the things we take for granted, like electricity, running water and emergency services.
    6. Some fish and other marine animals could be in trouble, which will probably hurt fishing communities.
    7. Some land animals won't do much better and that's not good for people who depend on them.
    8. Heat waves, especially in cities, will kill the elderly and very young.
    So far, the scientists haven't come up with the next step, common on Facebook pages: The interactive quiz to determine which global warming problem you most resemble.

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