Wednesday, September 7, 2016

New paper finds climate change & CO2 levels explained as a function of lagged solar activity

A new paper under open review for Earth System Dynamics finds Holocene climate change can be explained on the basis of lagged responses to changes of solar activity. According to the author,
This paper analyzes the lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, as part of cosmic-solar-terrestrial processes. Firstly, we analyze and model the lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, previously detected for geological and orbital scale processes, with simple non-linear functions, and we estimate a correspondent lag of ~1600-yr for the recently detected ~9500-yr scale solar recurrent patterns. Secondly, a recurrent and lagged linear influence of solar variation on volcanic activity and carbon dioxide (CO2) has been assessed for the last millennia, and extrapolated for future centuries and millennia. As a consequence we found that, on one side, the recent CO2 increase can be considered as a lagged response to solar activity, and, on the other side, the continental tropical climate signal during late Holocene can be considered as a sum of three lagged responses to solar activity, through direct, and indirect (volcanic and CO2), influences with different lags of around 40, 800 and 1600 years. 
Note the ~1600 year lag of response to solar activity is essentially the same as the well-known ~1500 year "never-ending climate cycle" identified by numerous peer-reviewed, published papers.

Note also the paper explains CO2 levels on the basis of a lagged function of solar activity, due to variations in solar heating of the oceans, and ocean in-gassing and out-gassing of CO2, not as a result of the ~4% CO2 contribution from mankind. 

The paper shows the (noisy) 1600-year climate cycle in the ice core 10Be proxy of solar activity of the past 1800 years peaked in the 1900's. The orange lines are modeled on the basis of a function of three lagged compenents of solar activity cycles and is currently on a downswing until ~2100, indicating potentially cooler Earth temperatures ahead. 




According to the author, "we propose the global ocean circulation processes, that include the well known meridional overturning circulation, and the thermohaline circulation, as a global mechanism capable of explaining the lagged forcing (volcanic activity & CO2) and continental tropical climate responses to solar activity variations."



The Earth’s climate system recurrent & multi-scale lagged responses: empirical law, evidence, consequent solar explanation of recent CO2 increases & preliminary analysis


Jorge Sánchez-Sesma

Received: 18 Aug 2016 – Accepted: 31 Aug 2016 – Published: 07 Sep 2016

Abstract. This paper analyzes the lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, as part of cosmic-solar-terrestrial processes. Firstly, we analyze and model the lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, previously detected for geological and orbital scale processes, with simple non-linear functions, and we estimate a correspondent lag of ~1600-yr for the recently detected ~9500-yr scale solar recurrent patterns. Secondly, a recurrent and lagged linear influence of solar variation on volcanic activity and carbon dioxide (CO2) has been assessed for the last millennia, and extrapolated for future centuries and millennia. As a consequence we found that, on one side, the recent CO2 increase can be considered as a lagged response to solar activity, and, on the other side, the continental tropical climate signal during late Holocene can be considered as a sum of three lagged responses to solar activity, through direct, and indirect (volcanic and CO2), influences with different lags of around 40, 800 and 1600 years. Thirdly, we find more examples of this ~1600-yr lag, associated with oceanic processes throughout the Holocene, manifested in the mineral content of SE Pacific waters, and in a carbon cycle index, CO3, in the Southern Atlantic. Fourthly, we propose the global ocean circulation processes, that include the well known meridional overturning circulation, and the thermohaline circulation, as a global mechanism capable of explaining the lagged forcing (volcanic activity & CO2) and continental tropical climate responses to solar activity variations. Finally, some conclusions are provided for the lagged responses of the Earth's climate system with their influences and consequences on present and future climate, and implications for climate modelling are preliminarily analyzed.

2 comments:

  1. Excellent data, no doubt it will be buried by established Climate Zealots. Hope the Swedish Solar scientists chirp in to help support you.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Here's my curve fitting approach explaining CO2 levels.
    On a much shorter timescale,using measured data.
    It might have some common grounds with above article.
    However, it,s just curve fitting, no science.

    http://tinyurl.com/Curve-fit-Mauna-Loa

    ReplyDelete