Friday, July 9, 2010

Look Away Warmists: 2 New Papers to Ignore

Two new peer-reviewed papers just published in Energy and Environment continue to bring the AGW hypothesis crumbling to its knees. The first agrees with the Gerlich and Tscheuschner papers that changes in the trace [currently 0.0389%] CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has not shown any measurable influence upon climate.

A null hypothesis for CO2    Author: Roy Clark, Ph.D

Abstract: Energy transfer at the Earth's surface is examined from first principles. The effects on surface temperature of small changes in the solar constant caused by the sunspot cycle and small increases in downward long wave infrared (LWIR) flux due to a 100 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration are considered in detail. The changes in the solar constant are sufficient to change ocean temperatures and alter the Earth's climate. The surface temperature changes produced by an increase in downward LWIR flux are too small to be measured and cannot cause climate change. The assumptions underlying the use of radiative forcing in climate models are shown to be invalid. A null hypothesis for CO2 is proposed that it is impossible to show that changes in CO2 concentration have caused any climate change, at least since the current composition of the atmosphere was set by ocean photosynthesis about one billion years ago.
Energy & Environment,  Issue Volume 21, Number 4 / August 2010

And the 2nd argues a "paradigm shift" in AGW "research" is necessary to due the obvious lack of correlation between CO2 and global warming [take for instance the steady increase in CO2 and global cooling from the 1940's through 1970's when the "scientists" at Stanford University Paul Erhlich and Steven Schneider alarmed the world of the impending ice age].

In other words, it's always helpful to remember the first rules of science "correlation does not mean causation" and "lack of correlation means lack of causation"

Introductory paper on paradigm shift: Should we change emphasis in greenhouse-effect research?

Abstract: A paradigm is a set of scientific and metaphysical beliefs that provide a theoretical framework within which scientific theories can be tested. Replacement of an existing paradigm by another is called a paradigm shift. Most of the following papers in this issue argue that an alternative paradigm is needed for the functioning of the so-called greenhouse effect of the Earth and hence for the explanation of observed climatic change. Some others contest it. The observed coincidence between global warming and rise of CO2 in the atmosphere over the last century - more accurately measured over the last 30 years of it - need not indicate a causal relationship, and it certainly need not give rise to global catastrophe. An assumed correlation is based on the expectation that the infrared radiation from CO2 contributes significantly to the greenhouse effect of the Earth. However, irregularities in the trends raise doubts of such a simple causal relationship and, at least, considerable doubt about the magnitude of such an expected effect.

Author: Arthur Rörsch, Ph.D., The Netherlands
Energy & Environment, Journal Issue Volume 21, Number 4 / August 2010

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