Wednesday, August 19, 2015

New paper finds another solar amplification mechanism by which solar activity & cosmic rays control climate

A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds another potential solar amplification mechanism mediated by galactic cosmic rays [GCRs] (and distinct from Svensmark's cosmic ray theory of climate). The author demonstrates:

Solar modulation of GCR [Galactic Cosmic Rays] is translated down to the Earth climate.
The mediator of solar influence are energetic particles.
GCR impacts the O3 [ozone] budget in the lower stratosphere.
O3 influences the temperature and humidity near tropopause, and greenhouse effect.
Effectiveness of this mechanism depends on geomagnetic field intensity.

"In this paper we show that bi-decadal variability of solar magnetic field, modulating the intensity of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) at the outer boundary of heliosphere, could be easily tracked down to the Earth's surface. The mediator of this influence is the lower stratospheric ozone, while the mechanism of signal translation consists of: (i) GCR impact on the lower stratospheric ozone balance; (ii) modulation of temperature and humidity near the tropopause by the ozone variations; (iii) increase or decrease of the greenhouse effect, depending on the sign of the humidity changes. The efficiency of such a mechanism depends critically on the level of maximum secondary ionisation created by GCR (i.e. the Pfotzer maximum) − determined in turn by heterogeneous Earth's magnetic field..."


The paper adds to over 100 potential solar amplification mechanisms described in the literature.

As to the false belief that solar activity does not correlate to global temperatures, the sunspot 'integral', the accumulated mean sunspot activityand Fourier analysis all demonstrate this belief to be false:





Graphics from the paper and abstract below:













Solar modulation of GCR [Galactic Cosmic Rays] is translated down to the Earth climate.
The mediator of solar influence are energetic particles.
GCR impacts the O3 budget in the lower stratosphere.
O3 influences the temperature and humidity near tropopause, and greenhouse effect.
Effectiveness of this mechanism depends on geomagnetic field intensity.

Abstract

The Sun's contribution to climate variations was highly questioned recently. In this paper we show that bi-decadal variability of solar magnetic field, modulating the intensity of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) at the outer boundary of heliosphere, could be easily tracked down to the Earth's surface. The mediator of this influence is the lower stratospheric ozone, while the mechanism of signal translation consists of: (i) GCR impact on the lower stratospheric ozone balance; (ii) modulation of temperature and humidity near the tropopause by the ozone variations; (iii) increase or decrease of the greenhouse effect, depending on the sign of the humidity changes. The efficiency of such a mechanism depends critically on the level of maximum secondary ionisation created by GCR (i.e. the Pfotzer maximum) − determined in turn by heterogeneous Earth's magnetic field. Thus, the positioning of the Pfotzer max in the driest lowermost stratosphere favours autocatalytic ozone production in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere (NH), while in the SH − no suitable conditions for activation of this mechanism exist. Consequently, the geomagnetic modulation of precipitating energetic particles – heterogeneously distributed over the globe – is imprinted on the relation between ozone and humidity in the lower stratosphere (LS). The applied test for causality reveals that during the examined period 1957–2012 there are two main centers of action in the winter NH, with tight and almost stationary ozone control on the near tropopause humidity. Being indirectly influenced by the solar protons, the variability of the SH lower stratospheric ozone, however, is much weaker. As a consequence, the causality test detects that the ozone dominates in the interplay with ULTS humidity only in the summer extra-tropics.

2 comments:

  1. Tim, are you still in hiding. (As you were starting at 7:45)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTJQPyTVtNA

    ReplyDelete
  2. I think that there are enough evidences about the relationship between the long-term (from 100 to 1000 years) solar activity changes and the global temperature. The new studies about the possible mechanism are welcome. There is another excellent relationship in the medium range time range from 1 to 100 years with correlation r2 being better than 0.95. This model is called an astronomical harmonic climate model (AHCM). In my latest article I have combined the solar effects and the AHCM getting an estimated temperature with correlation r2 being 0.97 from 1880 to 2010. Here is the link to the paper http://www.scienpress.com/journal_focus.asp?main_id=59&Sub_id=IV&Issue=1564
    In my web page you can find other material based on the scientific papers: http://www.climatexam.com/

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