Tuesday, August 10, 2010

The Disastrous Inconvenient Truth

The alarmist media are playing up the Russian heat wave and Pakistan floods (now officially "the worst disaster in history") as portents of global warming. Graphs from the World Health Organization International Disaster Database suggest a different conclusion:
Deaths from natural disasters 1975-2009
Number of people reported affected by natural disasters 1975-2009
Natural disasters reported 1975-2009 [peaked with the record 1998-1999 El Nino and on decline since]
Q: since the number of people affected leveled off well before the number of disasters reported, does that indicate a reporting bias as to what constitutes a "disaster?"

UPDATE: from atmospheric scientist Roger Pielke Jr:
"While I have no illusions that the inane debate over causality of specific physical events will continue as long there is weather, there should be no ambiguity in the fact that researchers who have look for a signal of increasing GHGs in increasing disaster losses (whether measured in dollars or in lives) have yet to see such a signal. It would be scientifically incorrect to claim that GHGs have been shown to account for any portion of the damage or suffering resulting from recent events."

UPDATE 2: Global death toll from extreme weather events declining http://www.thegwpf.org/the-observatory/1378-indur-m-goklany-global-death-toll-from-extreme-weather-events-declining.html

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