Saturday, August 6, 2011

Evidence warmth produces more CO2, rather than vice versa

Following the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991, change in CO2 dropped dramatically. Conversely, following the natural warming of the 1998 El Nino, change in CO2 increased dramatically. Sources: & The Climate Scam SE
In his recent lecture, Professor Murray Salby notes that changes in CO2 levels due to natural variation are so large that man-made CO2 becomes irrelevant. As we await publication of his paper, the graph above from may offer a taste of how Dr. Salby arrived at his conclusions. Dr. Salby notes that when temperatures dropped following the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, a dramatic decrease in the rate of change in CO2 followed in 1992-1993. Subsequently, the increase in temperatures due to the El Nino of 1998 was followed by a dramatic increase in the rate of change in CO2. These natural variations are independent of and overwhelm human emissions of CO2, and show that warmth produces more CO2, rather than vice-versa.

As stated by Professor Judith Curry,
"If Salby’s analysis holds up, this could revolutionize AGW science."
Salby notes his results are new and did not exist when the IPCC's latest report was prepared. The IPCC assessments and climate models are based on the erroneous assumption that the climate is controlled by human emissions of CO2. According to Salby, this is not the case and the ability to predict and control what future carbon dioxide levels will be, and to anticipate and influence future climate, is poor.


  1. I knew this 5 years ago.

    I looked at the rate of change reading the yearly measured CO2 emissions based on the Mauna Loa data.

    It shows the drops in the rate during the cooling time and the increases in the warming times.1982 and 1998 were the big El-Nino time and there was a large increase of CO2 emissions.In 1999-2000 there was a sharp drop in the rate.It was a strong La-Nina year.

  2. It does seem that this could have been at least discussed by climate scientists years ago, but maybe Salby can make a stronger case for publication now with more data.

  3. alternate view on Salby