Tuesday, December 10, 2013

US Navy predicts summer ice-free Arctic in 3 years

The 2013 summer minimum in Arctic sea ice extent was 6 million square kilometers, 50% higher than the minimum in 2012, and Arctic sea ice has been within 1 standard deviation of the 1979-2000 mean throughout most of 2013. 

Based on this trend, according to The Guardian, the US Navy has predicted the Arctic will be summer ice free in 3 years.

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US Navy predicts summer ice free Arctic by 2016

Is conventional modelling out of pace with speed and abruptness of global warming?


  1. "Monthly averaged ice volume for September 2013 was 5,000 km3. This value is 56% lower than the mean over this period, 70% lower than the maximum in 1979, and 0.6 standard deviations below the 1979-2013 trend." The ice volume is declining at a mean of 3,200 km3 per decade according to the Polar Science Center.

  2. We could bet on it!

  3. http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/01/07/supercomputers-say-the-arctic-will-be-ice-free-by-2013-at-the-latest/