Saturday, January 11, 2014

New paper finds another amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate

A new paper published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds more evidence of solar amplification mechanisms by which the Sun controls climate change. According to the authors, changes in solar activity affect cosmic rays [Svensmark et al] and the distribution of solar energy between different layers of the atmosphere [stratosphere and troposphere]. This then results in third order effects upon natural atmospheric oscillations such as the Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian Pattern, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). These atmospheric oscillations in turn have global effects upon climate change.

Contrary to claims of climate alarmists, the authors show that between 1960 to 2003 the trend of solar geomagnetic activity was up, which in turn reduced cosmic rays and cloud formation, leading to the well-known "global brightening" of the latter 20th century, amplification of solar energy at the Earth surface and warming, and change in energy distribution with more heat in the troposphere and less in the stratosphere. Global warming alarmists claim the pattern of increasing tropospheric and decreasing stratospheric temperatures is a fingerprint of man-made global warming, but this paper finds solar amplification mechanisms can account for this same pattern instead.

Fig. 1. Annual averages for all data included in the analysis. CR= cosmic rays, Ap = index of solar geomagnetic activity, UV = solar ultraviolet [which decreases during solar maxima], SOI = Southern Oscillation Index, PNAI = Pacific North American teleconnection, SPI = Scandinavian Pattern,  NAOI =  North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Temp tropo = tropospheric temperatures, strato = stratospheric temperatures.

Fig. 2.  Correlation coefficients between average hemispheric temperatures anomalies at tropospheric and stratospheric level, for the entire Northern Hemisphere and for extratropical latitudes. Correlations are calculated for the entire series (Ann), for years with QBO West (QBOW), for years with QBO East (QBOE), solar minimum years (sm) and solar maximum years (SM). Corrrelations for the entire year (A) and all seasons: winter (W), spring (Sp), summer (Su), fall (F) are also shown.
Possible effects of atmospheric teleconnections and solar variability on tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere
  • a Department of Geography, Faculty of Geography and Geology, Al. I. Cuza University of Iaşi, Bd. Carol I, no. 20A, 700505, Iaşi, Romania
  • b Department of Physics, ”Dunărea deJos” University of Galati, St. Domnească, 111, 800201, Galati, Romania


The Northern tropospheric temperature correlates with the Scandinavian Pattern.
The Northern stratospheric temperature correlates to the Southern Oscillation.
The cosmic ray flux might modulate the tropospheric and stratospheric variability.
UV effects on tropospheric and stratospheric temperature are not clear.


Possible relationships between tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and atmospheric oscillations, solar and geomagnetic activity are described using correlation analysis. The dependence of correlations on season, solar activity level and phase of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is also investigated. An important finding is that the variability of the hemispheric tropospheric temperature is well connected to the Scandinavian Pattern, to the Pacific North American teleconnection and less with the North Atlantic Oscillation. There is also a possible link with the Southern Oscillation (SO) for winter. Solar UV and cosmic ray flux might influence tropospheric temperature during warm seasons, solar maximum or QBO West. Significant correlations between the Northern stratospheric temperature and the SO is observed especially during the Eastern phase of QBO and solar minimum. Signatures of geomagnetic variability are seen in the winter stratospheric temperature. The stratospheric temperature correlates with the cosmic ray flux and solar UV at annual level at solar maximum and QBO West. The UV effect at stratospheric level is less clear than expected. The existence of some correlations between tropospheric/stratospheric temperatures and internal and external parameters under certain climatic circumstances and during different solar cycle phases might help in identifying processes that transfer energy from the Sun to different atmospheric layers and in assessing their role in climate variability.


  1. Additional papers finding other solar amplification mechanisms: