However, at least two peer-reviewed publications [noted below] find that climate models have been unable to simulate the behavior of the polar vortex and that little if any confidence should be placed in the model predictions of the polar vortex response to alleged man-made global warming.
In addition, three other peer-reviewed papers find that there is no evidence of any trend over up to the past 142 years in jet stream blocking or location, which in turn controls the polar vortex:
- A recent paper finds no evidence of any unusual or unprecedented changes in the latitude or speed of the North Atlantic jet stream over the past 142 years since 1871.
- Another 2 papers confirm there is no evidence that climate change has slowed the jet stream or increased frequency of jet stream blocking which controls the polar vortex.
However, there is observational evidence that the polar vortex is related to solar activity, not man-made CO2.
Once again, the global warming apologists are caught hiding behind highly flawed climate models in the face of contradictory real-world data. Dr. Roy Spencer sums it up in a post:
Does Global Warming Theory Predict Record Cold?
January 6th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Elementary statistical analysis shows the claim that extreme cold occurs because of warming simply doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
Excerpt from the paper Stratospheric Polar Vortices:
"A key issue for both the recovery of stratospheric ozone
and the inﬂuence of the stratosphere on tropospheric climate
is how the polar vortices will change, if at all, as greenhouse
gases continue to increase. The stratosphere will cool
because of the direct radiative effect of increased CO2, but
whether the polar vortices will be come stronger or weaker
will likely depend on changes in wave activity entering
the stratosphere. There is currently no agreement between
climate models as to trends in either the wave activity
entering the stratosphere or the strength of the polar vortex,
although the trends are generally small in all models. It is
unclear how much conﬁdence can be put into the model
projections of the vortices given that the models typically
only have moderate resolution and that the climatological
structure of the vortices in the models depends on the tuning
of gravity wave parameterizations. Given the above outstanding
issues, there is need for continued research in the dynamics of
the vortices and their representation in global models."
Abstract from the paper Assessment and Consequences of the Delayed Breakup of the Antarctic Polar Vortex in Chemistry-Climate Models
|Title:||Assessment and Consequences of the Delayed Breakup of the Antarctic Polar Vortex in Chemistry-Climate Models|
|Authors:||Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.; Li, F.; Morgenstern, O.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.|
|Affiliation:||AA(NASA Postdoctoral Program, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA |
|Publication:||EGU General Assembly 2009, held 19-24 April, 2009 in Vienna, Austria http://meetings.copernicus.org/egu2009, p.651|