Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Study finds global warming from natural cloud changes is more than 3 times greater than from 'greenhouse gases'

A peer-reviewed paper published in The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds that natural changes in global cloud cover over the 21 year period 1983-2004 are responsible for at least 3 times as much global warming as has been attributed to greenhouse gases over the 104 year period of 1900-2004. The paper finds the decrease in reflectance from clouds (albedo) over only the past 21 years has accounted for a change in solar energy delivered to the Earth surface of ~ 7W/m2, whereas all greenhouse gases are claimed to only account for (assuming you believe the IPCC) a ~ 2.4 W/m2 change over a much longer 104 year period. The paper also finds that climate models do not account for these cloud changes, that cloud changes are much more variable than previously thought, and that the cloud changes are not man-made or related to greenhouse gases. The author of the paper has provided a pdf presentation of these findings, excerpted below:
Graph shows change in solar energy impacting the Earth's surface due to natural changes in cloud cover, with a peak around 1997-1998 and drop thereafter, directly corresponding to changes in global temperature seen in the Hockey Schtick header.
Note graph in this slide and the attached paper is an inverse representation of the graph in the prior slide


  1. Like I said:


    Stephen Wilde

  2. if defined as mean reflectance over the whole spectrum , and uniform over the sphere , albedo has no effect on mean temperature of a radiantly heated ball . It is only non-uniform differences in albedo that make a difference . Eg , if there is increased cloud cover on our night side , that would increase mean temperature . An implementation of the essential algorithms in a hand full of lines of array programming language are @ my http://CoSy.com .

  3. The answer to this whole conundrum seems to me to be answered by oceanic surface tension. Surface tension will not allow the ocean to absorb physical heat from the atmosphere, it only absorbs radiation. Active sun,fewer clouds more heat in ocean, less active sun more clouds, less heat in ocean, simples.

  4. Simply done,and at no vast cost I'd guess. A real bit of empirical science, and a breath of fresh air in our rapidly overheating (NOT!) world.

    I don't understand Bob Armstrong's comment "albedo has no effect on mean temperature of a radiantly heated ball". If that were the case, the concept of a "black body" would have no meaning.

    Surely it's not necessary to labour the point that clouds reflect incoming radiation, and therefore more clouds reflect more radiation? He seems to be redefining some very basic principles,which are close to being self-evident.