Note a "null model" assumes the "null hypothesis" that climate change is natural and not forced by man-made CO2 or other alleged human influences.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L23705, 5 PP., 2012
- I am using a novel method to test the significance of temperature trends
- In the Eurasian Arctic region only 17 stations show a significant trend
- I find that in Siberia the trend signal has not yet emerged
British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK
This study investigates the statistical significance of the trends of station temperature time series from the European Climate Assessment & Data archive poleward of 60°N. The trends are identified by different methods and their significance is assessed by three different null models of climate noise. All stations show a warming trend but only 17 out of the 109 considered stations have trends which cannot be explained as arising from intrinsic [natural] climate fluctuations when tested against any of the three null models. Out of those 17, only one station exhibits a warming trend which is significant against all three null models. The stations with significant warming trends are located mainly in Scandinavia and Iceland.
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