Tuesday, July 17, 2012

NASA data shows Arctic was warmer in the 1930's and warmed 75% faster

According to a graph published on the NASA Earth Observatory site, Arctic temperatures were warmer in 1930's than at the end of the 20th century. In addition, the graph shows the Arctic warmed ~1.6C over the 19 year period from ~1918-1937 at a rate of 0.84C/decade, 75% faster than the 0.48C/decade from 1980-2000. Thus, alarmist claims that recent Arctic warming is unprecedented or accelerating are bogus.
The rapid warming trend in the Arctic over the last 25 years has dramatically reduced the region’s sea ice extent. Comparing this more recent trend with long-term data, scientists are trying to determine to whether this 25-year warming trend will continue, or is part of a longer-term cycle of ups and downs. (Graph by Larry Stock and Josefino Comiso, NASA GSFC)
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26 comments:

  1. AnonymousJuly 17, 2012 at 4:20 PM

    The graphs goes only to 2001, and the story is from 2003... Since then 10 years and a lot of warming with. 2007 and 2010 are something like 1.5° warmer than 2002.

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    1. MSJuly 17, 2012 at 6:25 PM

      provide your source indicating "2007 and 2010 are something like 1.5° warmer than 2002"

      Hansen's corrupted record is based on 'virtual thermometers' extrapolated from thousands of miles away.

      The DMI record of actual thermometer measurements in the Arctic shows no warming at all since 2003 [and earlier]

      Delete
  2. AnonymousJuly 18, 2012 at 8:51 AM

    http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/north-latitudes-surface-temp-trend-annual-thru2011.gif

    (I'm not the same as the first Anon.)

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    1. MSJuly 18, 2012 at 9:15 AM

      Ahh the thoroughly corrupted Hansen GISS record based 'virtual thermometers' extrapolated from 1200 km+ away.

      http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/07/24/imaginary-arctic-numbers-at-giss/

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/20/giss-arctic-trends-disagree-with-satellite-data/

      As I said above, the DMI record of actual thermometer readings actually located in the Arctic shows no warming since 2003 [and before] and has been below the mean for the vast majority of this summer.

      Delete
    2. MSJuly 18, 2012 at 9:15 AM

      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

      Delete
    3. AnonymousJuly 18, 2012 at 12:00 PM

      From DMI:

      "Since the 1970s the extent of sea ice has been measured from satellites. From these measurements we know that the sea ice extent today is significantly smaller than 30 years ago. During the past 10 years the melting of sea ice has accelerated, and especially during the ice extent minimum in September large changes are observed. The sea ice in the northern hemisphere have never been thinner and more vulnerable."

      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/index.uk.php

      Delete
    4. MSJuly 18, 2012 at 12:26 PM

      The 1970s was a period of global cooling during which we were led to believe was the beginning of a new ice age. So, yes, the ice is smaller than 30 years ago. They cannot possibly say "The sea ice in the northern hemisphere have never been thinner and more vulnerable" except perhaps since the 1970s, but that isn't even true as 2007 was significantly less than 2012.

      Numerous papers presented on this blog and WUWT have shown sea ice is more a function of winds than temperature, the Arctic has been ice free many many times in the past without human influence, submarines surfaced at the N Pole in 1958 and 1959, the Northwest passage has been navigated many times in the past, newspaper articles indicating the Arctic melted down in the 1930's, etc. etc.

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    5. UnknownJuly 18, 2012 at 5:07 PM

      According to the IPCC, there was a massive build up of arctic ice in the seventies, just before the satellite record began. The start of the satellite record begins with an abnormally large amount of ice. Extend the graph back 60 years, and you will likely not see any trend.

      Furthermore, the Arctic ice is floating on the surface of the ocean, and as such, subject to wind and ocean currents. The massive loss of sea surface ice in 2007 was a function of the prevailing winds, not melting.

      Delete
    6. AnonymousJuly 18, 2012 at 6:36 PM

      As the graph I posted shows the Arctic is warmer now than in the 30's. The causes are mixed. AGW has led to warmer oceans melting the ice from underneath. Soot is also a factor. Changes in winds can account some of the peak lows in sea ice but not the general trend. And of course there is an amplification of the warming due to reduced albedo. Also regions near the Arctic Ocean are warmer than in the 30s. See, for example: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/images/romanovsky_fig3.gif

      And the most important fact is that this arctic warming is occurring in the context of warming all over the world. The last ten years were the warmest ten years globally since records began in the late 1800s and wese likely the warmest in many centuries based on ice core data and many other proxy studies.

      Delete
    7. MSJuly 19, 2012 at 9:12 AM

      1. "AGW has led to warmer oceans" assumes the premise, of which there is no proof. The oceans have been warming naturally for the past 18,000 years. IR from GHGs is incapable of warming the oceans due to a penetration depth of only a few microns.

      2.The late 1800's coincided with the end of The Little Ice - so once again just like Arctic sea ice - measurements began at an abnormally low baseline. The work of over 1000 scientists has shown that the Medieval Warming Period was as warm or warmer only 1000 years ago.

      3. Suggest you read Steve Goddard's blog on the bogus claims of "warmest ever"

      Delete
    8. MSJuly 19, 2012 at 9:55 AM

      http://joannenova.com.au/2012/07/medieval-warm-period-found-in-120-proxies-roman-era-similar-to-early-20th-century/

      Delete
    9. MSJuly 19, 2012 at 11:36 AM

      http://www.ngu.no/en-gb/Aktuelt/2008/Less-ice-in-the-Arctic-Ocean-6000-7000-years-ago/

      Delete
    10. AnonymousJuly 19, 2012 at 4:09 PM

      Sorry MS, but you are living in La La Land. Citing politically motivated blogs run by people with no science training is just silly. I'm not assuming the premise I am following the science. Many papers written by real scientists show ocean warming is the result of GH warming. You haven't had enough education to be worth talking to. Bye.

      Delete
    11. MSJuly 19, 2012 at 4:37 PM

      Anonymous,

      FYI I have a doctorate in the "hard sciences"

      Who are you specifically referring to as "blogs run by people with no science training"

      Here are the reasons why GHGs cannot heat the oceans:

      http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/search?q=why+greenhouse+gases+cannot+warm+the+oceans

      http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/08/why-greenhouse-gases-wont-heat-oceans.html

      The oceans have only warmed 0.09C in the past 50 years:

      http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/05/new-paper-finds-worlds-oceans-have.html

      Delete
  3. SeanJuly 18, 2012 at 8:57 AM

    Is it possible to overlay plot the AMO over the last century on this data. I've heard there is a strong correlation.

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    1. MSJuly 18, 2012 at 9:43 AM

      There is no source for this NASA data that I am aware of. It appears different from Hansen's data, which per his usual procedure adjusts the past lower and present temps higher

      Delete
    2. MSJuly 19, 2012 at 10:31 AM

      related:

      http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/every/mean:12/offset:0.13/plot/rss/every/trend/offset:0.13/plot/uah/every/mean:12/offset:0.23/plot/uah/every/trend/offset:0.23/plot/esrl-amo/every

      Delete
  4. MSJuly 18, 2012 at 9:37 AM

    For all those true believers who think Arctic temperatures are unprecedented:

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/04/cooling-of-greenland-over-past-8000.html

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/05/paper-finds-greenland-unlikely-to-melt.html

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2011/03/scientists-drill-through-2-kilometers.html

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2011/05/paper-greenland-ice-sheet-didnt-melt.html

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2011/06/paper-shows-greenland-temperatures-were.html

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/04/paper-global-warming-since-1850-is.html

    need more? just do a search on this blog for Arctic or Greenland

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    1. MickJuly 18, 2012 at 5:10 PM

      Also Section 7.8.2 at http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_chapter_07.pdf has the graph that reports ice cover at lower levels pre 1980. Also temperature graphs somewhat not like hockey sticks.

      Delete
  5. MSJuly 18, 2012 at 10:45 AM

    http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/gisp220temperaturesince1070020bp20with20co220from20epica20domec1.gif

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  6. MSJuly 18, 2012 at 11:02 AM

    Satellite data shows a mere 0.1C change in NH extratropical temperatures above 20N since 2003

    http://climate4you.com/images/MSU%20UAH%20TropicsAndExtratropicsMonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif

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  7. MSJuly 18, 2012 at 11:28 AM

    http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/gisp-last-10000-new.png

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  8. AnonymousJuly 18, 2012 at 6:38 PM

    MS, great job... & well done to this site & WUWT, et. al... It is patently clear that for every lie told by the CAGW crowd, there's a consistent, pervasive & throughly documented & peer reviewed response to the Warmist's feeble arguments!

    The battle was joined a long time ago, around the time when some of us said... "This curve cannot be correct. Earth's temperature can't rise like a hockey stick!"

    We were right. You demonstrated that dedicated people like yourself have Freedoms enemys, the UN, the IPCC & the American Marxists hemmed in, or on the run.. WELL DONE!

    God Bless America, God Bless Our Freedom, God Bless our Soldiers of Science & the Military

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  9. AnonymousJuly 19, 2012 at 11:55 AM

    And don't forget the LIA in the Arctic was probably the coldest period for 10000 years.

    http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/04/07/little-ice-age-was-the-coldest-period-for-10000-years/

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  10. AnonymousJuly 29, 2012 at 8:55 AM

    Data presentation (ranges and selections) on this site are misleading. As for the warm period in the 1930s, who is to say it was natural??????!!!!! Humans started bumping up atmospheric Co2 big time early in the 1800s This makes it entirely plausible that the temperature rise in 30s was just as much part of the human-induced warming pattern as the increases over the past decade.

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    1. MSJuly 30, 2012 at 8:22 AM

      I didn't pick the range shown, NASA did.

      The IPCC says man-made global warming did not become detectable until after 1960, therefore even the alarmist IPCC disagrees with you.

      Delete

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