Monday, December 10, 2012

New paper finds only 1 weather station in the Arctic with warming that can't be explained by natural variation

A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters examines surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region and finds "only 17 out of the 109 considered stations have trends which cannot be explained as arising from intrinsic [natural] climate fluctuations" and that "Out of those 17, only one station exhibits a warming trend which is significant against all three null models [models of natural climate change without human forcing]." Climate alarmists claim that the Arctic is "the canary in the coal mine" and should show the strongest evidence of a human fingerprint on climate change, yet these observations in the Arctic show that only 1 out of 109 weather stations showed a warming trend that was not explained by the natural variations in the 3 null climate models. 

Note a "null model" assumes the "null hypothesis" that climate change is natural and not forced by man-made CO2 or other alleged human influences.


GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L23705, 5 PP., 2012
doi:10.1029/2012GL054244
Key Points
  • I am using a novel method to test the significance of temperature trends
  • In the Eurasian Arctic region only 17 stations show a significant trend
  • I find that in Siberia the trend signal has not yet emerged
C. Franzke
British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK
This study investigates the statistical significance of the trends of station temperature time series from the European Climate Assessment & Data archive poleward of 60°N. The trends are identified by different methods and their significance is assessed by three different null models of climate noise. All stations show a warming trend but only 17 out of the 109 considered stations have trends which cannot be explained as arising from intrinsic [natural] climate fluctuations when tested against any of the three null models. Out of those 17, only one station exhibits a warming trend which is significant against all three null models. The stations with significant warming trends are located mainly in Scandinavia and Iceland.

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