Tuesday, July 2, 2013
New paper finds in retrospect, we predicted global warming would slow for only 5 years
A paper recently published in Nature Climate Change claims to "retrospectively predict" the "pause" in global warming due to Trenberth's "missing heat" sinking undetected to the bottom of the ocean. Close examination of the paper, however, reveals that the model used by the authors only predicted a slowdown for up to 5 years, not the complete lack of warming for the past 16+ years. Buried in the paper is the admission that "The reasons for the warming pause to be sustained late in the decade have not however been clearly identified from our [modelling] experiments." Furthermore the authors admit, "The deep-ocean heat uptake has been argued to be largely overestimated by most climate models, which does not seem to be the case for [the author's model], although the scarce observations do not constrain to firm conclusions about the deep ocean." In other words, the one model that allegedly "retrospectively predicted" lack of warming said it would last only up to 5 years, there has been no warming for 16+ years, we don't know why, and we don't have deep ocean observations to back up our claims.
Posted by MS at 12:37 PM