An important review paper published today in Quaternary Science Reviews demonstrates that the rapid changes in the Arctic which have been blamed on man by alarmists are in fact within the norm of frequent, large and abrupt changes for the entire Cenozoic Era [past 66 million years].
According to the paper, "Globally, the general trend of increasing air surface temperature over the last 15 years has slowed in recent years, and is currently four times less than predicted by simulations [of the latest IPCC climate models] (Fyfe et al., 2013). However, over the same interval, global atmospheric CO2 level has continued to increase (Francey et al., 2013) and the Arctic Ocean has experienced a rapid decline in summer sea ice extent and thickness (Stroeve et al., 2012) (Fig. 1). The lack of a strong correlation between global average air temperature, atmospheric CO2 and Arctic summer sea ice provides one example that shows that Arctic environmental changes are heavily influenced by complex interplays between different feedback mechanisms." i.e. not the simplistic explanation by warmists that all changes in the Arctic are man-made.
According to the authors, "Instead of interpreting changes almost exclusively as near linear responses to external forcing (e.g. orbitally-forced climate change [or man-made greenhouse gases]), research is now concentrated on the importance of strong feedback mechanisms that in our palaeo-archives often border on chaotic behaviour. The last decade of research has revealed the importance of on-off switching of ice streams, strong feedbacks between sea level and ice sheets, spatial and temporal changes in ice shelves and perennial sea ice, as well as alterations in ice sheet dynamics caused by shifting centres of mass in multi-dome ice sheets."
The paper states, "Perhaps the next paradigm shift is towards recognising the unstable nature of Arctic cryosphere and Arctic environmental change more widely? That instability likely makes predicting the future a real challenge."