Saturday, April 5, 2014

Studies find El Ninos can be predicted from solar activity

A recent paper concludes that the El Nino Southern Oscillation [ENSO] "may be entirely unpredictable" using climate models, and another finds that the failure of climate models to predict drought and climate is due to the inability to model El Ninos. The "pause" of global warming that climate models did not predict has also been attributed to the inability to model ENSO, which has profound influence on global climate. 

Climate models are unable to reproduce El Ninos [ENSO]. Source

However, other research has found a remarkable correlation between the 11-year solar cycle and the onset of El Ninos about 11 months following a solar geomagnetic maximum. Raimund Leistenschneider from the German EIKE site describes his work below, as well as a similar published paper in PNAS which finds all El Ninos of the past 140 years have been correlated to increases in solar geomagnetic activity. Both Leistenschneider and the authors of the PNAS paper predict on the basis of current solar activity an El Nino will occur in late 2014 and peak in January 2015. Stay tuned, the warmists are hoping an El Nino late this year will save their cause from the embarrassing "pause" of global warming over the past 18 years, but El Ninos are likely just a manifestation of solar activity and albedo, not AGW.

Also of interest below is Fig 17 which shows a remarkable step increase of solar geomagnetic activity [aa index] over the 20th century to the solar grand maximum of the late 20th century. 

Figure from part 1 showing the correlation between global temperature and El Ninos.

Google's (lousy) translation from the German EIKE site:

The sun brings light into the dark - What really determines the earth temperature, part 2

Raimund Leistenschneider

Part 2: 2014, an El Nino-year - El Niño and its solar-timer over the last 1,000 years (?)
In the second Part be the part in one compared with the data of the last 140 years, and thus shown that there are the found relations and correlations for this period. In addition, an El Niño data comparison is made ​​for the past 1,000 years with the main solar cycle. It is shown that each time an El Niño takes place when the main solar cycle activity begins (after its minimum activity) to rise again. Based on the theory of the author is then argued that the end of 2014 an El Niño will be present, which will reach its maximum at the beginning of 2015 (the most characteristic).
On the basis of figure 15 the car would show the last 60 years. To what extent the correlations found are also valid for this period. It has to be resorted to reconstructed values.
Fig.15: All El Ni no-events are also directly related "their" solar parameter. A solar parameters (1955) stands at the reconstructed values ​​not with an El Niño relationship.
Intermediate Result: Out of 19 events all fall together with a solar maximumThe reconstructed values ​​triggers a solar event (1955) El Ni no ñ from o.
Can be beyond the established theory of the author substantiate the basis of data rows? To this end, we look at the period of El Niño events and the solar parameters that trigger him to the 1870 years of. However, it is here, as in Figure 15, not measured, but reconstructed values, which do not possess the accuracy and the degree, as measured events.
Fig.16 shows the connections to the mid-1870's. All El Niño events to the event in 1900, can be assigned to a solar activity event. With two solar events of the El Ni remains ñ o from. The author has used in its investigation the same solar parameters. However, these are not measured, but reconstructed. The time series at the bottom shows the TSI, source: NASA. NASA writes about this on its website that the TSI was developed from a separate, physical model and the mapping from the University of Montreal dates. The time series also shows the total flux, source: " A doubling of the Sun's Coronal Magnetic Field falling on the Last 100 Years ", M. Lockwood, R. Stamper, and MN Wild, Nature Vol 399, June 3 1999.
The El Niño of 1900 really any solar event assign?
Fig.17 is derived from the work of v on Russell and T. Mulligan (Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California) "The 22-year Variation of Geomagnetic Activity: Implications for the Polar Magnetic Field of the Sun", Geophysical Research Letters , 22, 3287-3288, 1995. 
Fig.17 shows the geomagnetic aa-index from 1850 to 1990. In 1900, the magnetic activity of the sun begins to rise again (green trend line) and reaches the end of the 20th Century its peak. Here, the aa-index increases by 100% (blue horizontal lines), which allows conclusions to the sharp increase in solar activityThe increase is synchronous to the main solar cycle, the on average 208-year de Vries / Suess cycle. He reduced while the cosmic rays in the same period by approximately 15%.
This work is to be compared with another, which is also the main course of the solar cycle, the on average 208-year de Vries / Suess cycle shows (Fig. 18).
Fig.18 shows natural fluctuations in ocean currents in the North Atlantic and thus to the Gulf Stream, Source: Dr. Axel Mörner, "No danger of a global sea level rise." The picture has been supplemented by the author to the de Vries / Suess solar cycle (periods). You can see the Arctic ice development in conjunction with the prevailing ocean currents in relation to the main solar cycle (de Vries-Suess cycle). Both the Arctic ice cover, as well as the pattern of ocean currents in the Middle follows the 208-year de Vries-Suess cycle. In Sonnenminima experience northwestern Europe, the North Atlantic and the Arctic cold phases. The figure also shows that for the next 30 - 40 years of an Arctic ice extent and no ice melting is expected.
Fig.18 shows that the main solar cycle end of the 1890 years reached its minimum and the solar activity increases again in the main solar cycle in 1900, that an El Ni ñ o could have triggered. Have solar regularities that occur on small scales, even on large scales to be valid?
From the Schwabe cycle is known ( Friis-Christensen, E. & Lassen, K.: Length of the solar cycle. indicator of solar activity on Closely associated with climate Science 254 (1991) 698 ) that the longer is its cycle , the weaker the solar activity in the same cycle. This correlation on small scales can also be observed on large scales. Also in the main solar cycle and its harmonics, the Hallstatt cycle, the cycle duration is analogous to the solar activity, ie the weaker the Hallstatt cycle, the longer its cycle time.
The sun shines at Raising an El Niño event also here to behave on large scales the same as on small scales. The author has shown that for every increase of solar activity in the Schwabe cycle, an El Niño event is raised. This seems to be the same on large scales. Increasing solar activity in the main solar cycle, triggers (the El Niño 1900) El Niño from. Nor correlation can not be made ​​the basis of an event, therefore, the thesis should be analyzed further. Fig.18 shows an overview of historical El Niño events.
Fig.19 shows a collection of historical El Ni ñ o / La Ni ñ a-events over the last 1000 years, source:
According to the work of Professor Mörner (Fig. 18) of the main solar cycle had about 1670 and 1465 its minimum and then turned in his activity.
Fig.20 shows the C14-proxy, which is a measure of solar activity over the last 1100 years, Source: United States Geological Survey . The author has to the minima (blue lines) plotted at which the course is reversed, ie the solar activity increases again. The minima are identical to the minima of solar activity and how the cycle time can easily recognize, represent the main solar cycle. The minima are at about 1078, 1338, 1538 and 1718.
Now, this data is compared with the list in Fig.19 (Fig.21).
Fig.21: Both the change in solar activity from the work of Prof. Mörner (Fig. 18, the 1670 and 1465), as well as the change in the activity of Fig.19 ( United States Geological Survey , the 1718 , 1538, 1338 and 1077) fall exactly together with an El Niño event.
From this it can be concluded confirm that to the already found three solar parameters that trigger an El Niño, a fourth parameter is:
For each activity change in the main solar cycle, the on average 208-year de Vries / Suess cycle is an El Niño triggered when the solar activity has passed its minimum in the main solar cycle and rises again.
Result of the investigation is to be noted that all 40 El Niño events are triggered by a solar parameters during the period of the last 140 years. When solar activity remain with the reconstructed values ​​of two El Niño. During the period of the measured values ​​is not a solar event to have caused "his" El Niño without. The El Niño occurs in an exact time window after the solar activity increase / solar maximum. Just 11 months after that.
For these reasons, the author assumes that at the end 2014/Anfang 2015 set an El Niño event and for the reason that the sun right now its magnetic maximum in 24 Schwabe cycle has (Fig.22). Each measured magn. Maximum triggered "his" El Niño during the investigation period. The fact that the physicist Armin Bunde and Joseph Ludescher of the University of Giessen based on their study (published in the U.S. journal "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences") independently to get the same result, of course, pleased the author. In this case, write the physicist "Now we announce that our method could detect the recurrence of El Niño in late 2014 in September 2013." The author has already announced in January 2011, when and how El Niños occur. He was not just "know", but has clearly made the statement.
While the Giessen physicist specify "the probability of an El Niño still occurs this year, lies at 76 percent," was able to show that all El Niño have been triggered in the past 140 years by "their" solar parameters of the author. This is a success rate of 100%If the two solar events that caused no El Niño, involved, so the probability is 96%. The extent to which both fractions to be right, it will show the end of 2014.
Fig.22 shows the current 24 Schwabe cycle, source: The magnetic maximum is in 02 / 14th Is the basis of the investigations of the author, therefore, 11 months later, in 01/15, the El Niño be fully developed and reach its maximum.
Raimund Leistenschneider - EIKE

Related: Dr. Roy Spencer:  ENSO and PDO Explain Tropical Average SSTs during 1950-2013


  1. I wonder how this relates to the cosmo-climate theory of Svensmark?

    The Chilling Stars by Svensmark and Calder

  2. My New Climate Model proposes that changes in solar activity alter global cloudiness, change the amount of solar energy entering the oceans and skew the balance between El Nino and La Nina.

    This paper seems to support that proposition.

    The Svensmark proposal is that cosmic ray amounts cause the changes in cloudiness but I suggest that changes in the size and shape of the polar vortices do it by altering the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles which causes longer lines of air mass mixing with more meridional jet stream tracks.

    Stephen Wilde.

  3. " well as a similar published paper in PNAS which finds all El Ninos of the past 140 years have been correlated to increases in solar geomagnetic activity."

    The complete reverse is true, see 1997/98 and 2009/10: