Sunday, July 20, 2014

New paper finds Asian aerosols are not a valid excuse for the 'pause' in global warming

A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters finds that Asian aerosol emissions do not explain the hiatus in global temperature over the past 15+ years. Chinese/Asian aerosols are one of the 12+ excuses for the 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming that have appeared in the scientific literature. According to the authors, the net global effects of changes in sulfate and black carbon aerosols over the past 15 years increased radiative forcing, which would increase rather than decrease warming. 

According to the authors,
"Increases in Asian aerosol emissions have been suggested as one possible reason for the hiatus in global temperature increase during the past 15 years.  
We find that the increased Asian emissions have had very little regional or global effects, while the emission reductions in Europe and the U.S. have caused a positive radiative forcing. 
In Asia, the Black Carbon warming due to sunlight absorption has largely offset the cooling caused by sulphate aerosols. Asian Black Carbon concentrations have increased by a nearly constant fraction at all altitudes, and thus, they warm the atmosphere also in cloudy conditions."
Of course, this would suggest that natural variability overwhelms any effect of mankind from either aerosols or greenhouse gases upon climate. Climate alarmists "fail to see that a climate system capable of cancelling out warming with natural cooling is also capable of causing natural warming in the first place."

Climate impacts of changing aerosol emissions since 1996

T. Kühn et al

Increases in Asian aerosol emissions have been suggested as one possible reason for the hiatus in global temperature increase during the past 15 years. We study the effect of sulphur and black carbon (BC) emission changes between 1996 and 2010 on the global energy balance. We find that the increased Asian emissions have had very little regional or global effects, while the emission reductions in Europe and the U.S. have caused a positive radiative forcing. In our simulations, the global-mean aerosol direct radiative effect changes by 0.06 W/m2 during 1996 to 2010, while the effective radiative forcing (ERF) is 0.42 W/m2. The rather large ERF arises mainly from changes in cloudiness, especially in Europe. In Asia, the BC warming due to sunlight absorption has largely offset the cooling caused by sulphate aerosols. Asian BC concentrations have increased by a nearly constant fraction at all altitudes, and thus, they warm the atmosphere also in cloudy conditions.

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