Monday, March 2, 2015

Analysis finds global warming of 20th century entirely explained by changes in solar activity and clouds

A new analysis from the German EIKE site finds the global warming of the 20th century is entirely explainable on the basis of a sustained increase of solar activity, modulated by changes in cloud cover induced by cosmic rays and an enormous amount of cloud condensation nuclei blasted into the atmosphere from the nuclear tests conducted 1945-1963.

Google translation:

Heat balance of the earth and global temperature change

Jürgen Lange Heine
Summary: The IPPC's published trend of global temperature anomalies can be explained only superficially by the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the last 100 years. Despite steadily rising carbon dioxide levels observed in the years 1945 to 1975, as well as since 1998, a decrease or stagnation in global temperatures occurred that does not fit with the carbon dioxide hypothesis....

Fig. 1 NASA Information on the anomaly of the global annual mean temperatures
.... The observed deviation from a steady rise in temperature from increased solar radiation in the years 1945 to 1975 was due to increased cloud formation by the radioactive condensation nuclei artificially introduced in the years 1945 to 1963 from the nuclear tests in the atmosphere. The stagnation of temperature since 1998 was caused by decreasing solar activity since 1998 ..
From 1900 to 1998, solar radiation increased by 1.3 W / m², but since 1998 it has diminished, and could reach values ​​similar to those of the early 20th century. A drop in global temperature over the next few years is predicted

 Main text

The surface of 511 million square kilometers is covered about 75% of water. The rest are 3% and 22% polar ice land masses, with 8% forest, 8% of arable land and 5% industrial and colonization surface.
Thanks to the enormous amount of water in the oceans of the earth and the high heat capacity of seawater make changes there accumulated thermal energy is the main component of the thermal energy balance of the Earth.
When we talk about climate change, reference is made to the presentation of the so-called. Temperature anomalies, which is published by the ICCP, among others. It is to yearly average values, which are in turn based on a mean value over a defined time interval. (Z. B. 1961-1990). The following Fig.1 the course of the temperature anomalies is shown: 
Fig.1:. NASA Information on the anomaly of the global annual mean temperatures  (after  See Bil d right 
These are measured temperatures of approximately 35,000 meteorological stations distributed over the earth, with the greater frequency of monitoring stations located in the northern hemisphere.
The oceans play due to their large surface area and their large heat capacity, the key role in climate design earth. They contain 97% of the total water on the planet and are the source of 86% of the evaporating water on the Earth's surface. 78% of global precipitation occurs over the oceans, and only 22% via the land masses.
The response of the Earth's atmosphere on disorders of the heat balance is, in essence, the temperature behavior of the ocean km², with its area of ​​about 400 million, determined its water content of ca.1,3 trillion cubic meters and the interaction with the atmosphere.
The, the atmosphere forming air is a compressible gas at sea level, and has a density of 1.29 kg / m3. Approximately 50% of the air mass of the atmosphere between 5500m altitude and sea level.
The total mass of the atmosphere is ML = 5.14 * 1018kg and the resulting air pressure at sea level is 1013 hPa.
The main components of the Earth's atmosphere are nitrogen N2 78%, 21% oxygen O2, argon Ar to 0.9%, carbon dioxide, CO2 and water vapor to 0.038%, H2 O. While the composition of the air with respect to N2, O2, Ar, and CO2 changes only at high altitude, the water vapor concentration Fig. is strongly dependent on the temperature and the height, s.. 2
Fig. 2: water vapor content as a function of the level
(J. Lange Heine, energy policy in Germany, the business of fear, Athena Media Verlag, ISBN 978-3-86992-054-2) 
If air saturated with water at 20 ° C containing ca.17g water / m³ as water vapor, z. B. transported to an altitude of 5000m, it loses water 16g / m³. This water vapor condenses and falls under certain conditions as precipitation back to earth.
90% of the water content of the atmosphere spread over the first 5500 meters of altitude .Damit weather processes occur mainly in a height range up to about 5500 m from. The integration over the height up to 11000m results in a total amount of water in the atmosphere of about MW = 1.3 ∙ 1016kg and corresponds to a condensed volume of 1.3 ∙ 1013m³. In the oceans, however, is about 1.3 ∙ 1018 m³ about 100,000 times more water than in the atmosphere.
In pure air (without foreign particles) can reach up to 800% relative humidity without condensation occurs. In reality, however, the water vapor condenses at values ​​of a few percent below or above 100%, depending on the nature and concentration of the condensation nuclei in the air. As condensation nuclei for cloud formation serve aerosol particles from the surface components and high-energy ion-forming radiation. Are particularly active radioactive dust and radon decay products, their accumulation in cloud droplets compared to the surrounding air (BI Styra et all. Tellus XVIII (1966, 2) suggesting their involvement in the formation of condensation nuclei.
The distinction between the clouds will clear and more for the height of cloud base into high, medium and low clouds.
High clouds that form in general above 6000m and account for about 13-14% of cloud cover, composed of ice crystals.
Middle clouds that arise at altitudes 2000-5000 m and account for about 20% of cloud cover, made of water drops.
Low clouds are also made of water drops are located at altitudes up to 2000m. They account for about 28-30% of cloud cover.  
High and medium or low clouds can occur simultaneously, but the middle and low clouds are responsible for the precipitation substantially.
Fig.3. Cloud cover and water content of the atmosphere 1983-2010 / images / Cloud Cover Low Level Observations Since1983 gif)
In Fig.3 the time course of the water content of the atmosphere and of course the clouds from 1983 to 2010 is shown. Fig. 4 shows the variation of annual rainfall from the long-term average. An increase in the mean cloud cover and a drop in the deep clouds in the years from 1998 can be seen from the comparison of the two representations 3 and 4, associated with an increase in the rate of precipitation. The total cloudiness with middle and low clouds, however, remains largely constant at 48%. Despite rainfall, the water content of the atmosphere changes only slightly, but as of 1998 is a sudden drop to 24 mm (see Fig. Discussion below) to see. At the same time, the average cloudiness of 20 increases to 23% and the low clouds decreases from 28 to 25%.
Since this show is stagnating and global warming.
Fig. 4: Deviation in global precipitation over land from the average for the years 1900-2010
(Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.)
A comparison of figure 4 with figure 1 shows that stagnation in global temperature anomaly occurs in periods of high rainfall. Both in the periods from 1945 to 1980 as well as from 1998 to 2010 observed a significant positive deviation of rainfall.
Clouds and precipitation are the link of the atmosphere to the ocean.
The amount of water of the oceans, Distributed on its surface gives an average depth of 3800m. But the deeper layers of the ocean hardly contribute to the temperature changes of the surface. At a certain depth, the so-called. Thermoclines the surface temperature of the low temperature equalizes.
Figure 5 shows the increase of the heat content of the ocean from 1970 to 2005 by about 1.6 ∙ 1023 J.
During the same period, the surface temperature increased by 0.4 ° C. Hence the position of the average thermoclines calculated at a depth of about 300m. In this water depth approximately 1/13 of the water masses of the ocean are affected and require for ignition by 1K about 4 ∙ 1023 J.
Fig.5 change in the heat content of the oceans
The amount of water contained in the atmosphere corresponds to a condensed volume of 1.3 ∙ 1013 m³. If you distribute the water volume of the atmosphere to the soil surface of 511 ∙ 106 km 2, we obtain a water column of about 25 mm, s. Fig. 3. The heat of vaporization of 2257 kJ / kg of water by the liquid to convert the water is required in the vapor state, there is a whole contained in the water vapor in the Earth latent heat of about 3 ∙ 1022 joules, equivalent to 3 ∙ 104 EJ.
The average evaporation, and precipitation rate is about 1000 mm of water per year. (Baumgartner and Reichel 1975). This means that the cycle Verdampfung- condensation per year, about 40 times runs out.
After this assessment evaporate so every year 520.000Km³ water from the surface. The exact figures are 505,000 cubic kilometers, of which 434,000 cubic kilometers over the oceans and 71,000 km³ across the country. The lack of balance in the amount of about 36,000 km³ is the oceans fed by the rivers again.
With the heat of vaporization of 2257 kJ / kg, this results in a heat quantity of 9.8 ∙ 1023 J / a, which is removed from the oceans annually and a heat quantity of 1.6 ∙ 1023 J / a, which comes from the land, for a total a heat quantity of 11.4 ∙ 1023 J / a or 1.14 ∙ 106 EJ per year. These are offset by the sunlight in a state of equilibrium.
A deviation of annual precipitation rate to 1% (10mm per year) changed this amount of energy for the oceans by about 1 ∙ 1022 J / a. it is possible to change the heat radiation performance of 0,86W / m² oceans calculated.
The berechnetet taking into account the precipitation and temperature development energy balance for the period 1900-1998 now yields the following result:
-Between 1900 and 1945, the ocean energy amount of 1.6 ∙ 1023 J was supplied, resulting from the lower precipitation rate (average 1.2%) of 570 mm, corresponding to approximately 5.7 ∙ 1023 J, a increased due to the increase in temperature of the ocean heat radiation of about 5.6 ∙ 1023 J and until 1945 to ca.0,6 W / m², increased Wärmeinstrahlung (1.6 ∙ 1023 J) composed by increased solar radiation. The increase in heat radiation per year was about 0,013W / m².
-In The period 1945-1980, this additional sunlight rose to 0,93W / m². During this period fell 350mm more rainfall than the statistical means, that on average every year 1% more than normal. This led to a further increase in 1970 as the Wärmeinstrahlung reached the value of the heat loss due to increased rainfall, a drop in temperature. From this point outweighed the effect of rising sun and the temperature rose again.
-In The period 1980 to 1998, again a below-average rainfall of about 1% in each year recorded, during the same period the solar radiation rose to 1.3 W / m², which led to an increase in temperature in 1998 to 0.55 K.
-From 1998 to 2010 uses a stronger 1.5% chance of precipitation. A stagnation temperature continues to increase from 1998 was the result.
The energy balances of each of the periods lead to the conclusion that the effective solar radiation must be increased by about 1.3 W / m² 1900-1998. This result is also confirmed by the following considerations Albedoveränderungen and cloud formation processes.
Scattering and reflection of the striking of the sun to the earth's surface radiation leads to an average albedo of 30%. Albedo is the amount of backscattering and reflection of solar radiation by atmospheric clouds and the earth's surface, it is the heat balance of the earth does not benefit.
Stronger cloudiness leads to higher albedo values, low to lower values, the latter connected to the then higher radiation on the earth's surface.

The following figures 6 and 7 show the measurements of the Erdalbedos the years 1985 to 2010, compared to the global cloud cover 1983-2010
Fig.6 change the Erdalbedo by (Palle, E, et all 2004)
 Fig.7 Global Cloud cover from 1983 / images / Cloud Cover Low Level Observations Since1983 gif)
Approximately 5% change in total cloud cover have according to these results, a change in the Erdalbedo about 6% of 30 to 28.2% result. This means that each percent of change of cloud cover causes an albedo of 1.2%. The solar radiation so that changes by about +/- 1.4 W / m² from 239.4 to 240.8 W / m² and 238 W / m² with a change in cloud cover by +/- 1%.
According to the theory of Svensmark enhanced cosmic ray ion formation is responsible for the creation of additional low clouds.
Fig. 8: Cosmic radiation and cloud cover by Svensmark
Marsh & Svensmark 2003 ( DOI: 10.1029 / 2001JD001264.)
20% variation with respect. Cosmic rays mean then 2% variation in cloud cover.
Cosmic radiation is a high energy particle radiation that comes from the sun, the Milky Way and distant galaxies.
The intensity of cosmic radiation reaching the Earth's atmosphere is a function of the solar activity caused by the fault or shielding the Earth's magnetic field.
The geomagnetic index, the so-called. Aa index, is a measure of this error, and therefore a measure of the shielding effect of the earth's field to cosmic radiation. The aa index is specified in nT. Its history since 1860 is shown in the following figure 9, from which it can be seen that the geomagnetic index from a low point, which was about 1900 until about 2000 has steadily increased.
 Fig.9: The geomagnetic index
Between cosmic rays and CR aa index by Palle the derivable from the following Fig.10 context: 
CR = 5000 45 .

Figure 10. The influence of cosmic rays on terrestrial low clouds and global warming </ address>

in the years 1984-1993 </ address>
E. Palle Bago and CJ Butler: Astronomy & Geophysics, August 2000. Vol 41, Issue 4, pp.18-22.

1900, the aa-index was 14nT and climbed up to the year 1990 to ca.30nT.
Thus the cosmic radiation has decreased from a value of 4370 in 1900 to 3650 in 1990, and the cloud cover with low clouds decreased when using the results of Svensmark by 2%.
As low clouds Cloud cover accounts for about 50% of the total cloud cover, it can be assumed by a drop in total cloud cover and 1990 by about 1%, which means an additional solar irradiation of ca.1,4 W / m² to 1990.
The increase from 1900 to 1998 solar activity is the sole cause of the increase in global temperature, which was only interrupted by periods of high rainfall in the years 1945-1970.
Since the year 1998, the sunspot activity drops significantly and reached by Cycle 24 values ​​similar to those in 1900. The cosmic radiation increases and leads to increased rainfall.
In the coming years is expected to aa index of about 15nT, with a corresponding increase in cosmic radiation, increased cloud formation and sinking global temperature.
The increased rainfall in the period 1945 to 1970 is due to an additional source of ionizing radiation, whose origins are to be found in the nuclear tests of the time period 1945-1963. Air pollution eliminated as the cause for this period.
Huge quantities of radioactive dust and finely divided matter were thrown by the explosions into the stratosphere, distributed with the air currents around the world and were a constant source of ionizing micro dust for the formation of condensation nuclei in the troposphere.
Between 1951 and 1963, z. B. the strontium content increased in the stratosphere constantly with corresponding effects on weather patterns and took off in 1963 after the nuclear test stop slowly to 1974 again.
It was not until 1974 that source is nuclear radiation dries up and comes out of the question for cloud formation.
Between 1945 and 1974, the cloud formation is thus influenced by additional radioactive radiation that comes from the nuclear tests, an indirect proof for the theory of Svensmark. Only from that time, the influence of cosmic rays falling down again by the climate factor and the temperature increase is in accordance with the increase in solar radiation on.
From 1998, the aa index decreases and reaches 2010 levels by 15 that existed in the early 19th century. The cosmic rays, and thus the cloud cover increase since that time. The solar radiation additional drops to values ​​that prevailed at the beginning of the 20th century. This leads to a decline in global temperature. When this development comes to a standstill depends solely on the history of solar activity.
(A more detailed description can be used as pdf - load file) 

1 comment:

  1. I have say that this is a nice treatment. I do agree that there are many factors coming into play that can affect global climate, and the assertion that cloud cover and solar activity could produce similar effects is something that makes sense. The truth is that we don't have precision data extending very far back into the 19th century, so it's hard to be sure.

    Two things that this effort doesn't address is the level of global CO2 and the modern evolution of glaciers. At 400 ppm the levels are higher than at any time over the past 500000 years. This is almost certainly an anomaly related to human activity, or, at least, there is no other natural explanation for it we have found. Similarly, the size and movements of glaciers are better known than cloud cover over the past few hundred years, and they too are behaving anomalously in a manner consistent with global retreat.

    Hence, while I do think that cloud cover, cosmic rays, and solar activity can explain much of what is happening, I don't think it can adequately explain everything. In any case, from a policy perspective there shouldn't be any difference. Even if solar and cosmic forcing is larger than human activity in terms of its effect on global temperatures, the net consequences are the same. Our role is almost certainly magnifying any underlying process, so it remains in our interest to limit our role.