New paper confirms the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect on 6 planets including Earth, falsifies CAGW

An important new paper published in Advances in Space Research determines that the Earth surface temperature (as well as the surface temperatures of 5 other rocky planets in our solar system) can be very accurately determined (R² = 0.9999! & tiny standard error σ=0.0078) solely on the basis of two variables: 

1) atmospheric pressure at the surface, and 

2) solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere, 

and without any consideration of any greenhouse gas concentrations or 'radiative forcing' from greenhouse gases whatsoever. 

Thus, the paper adds to the works of at least 40 others (partial list below) who have falsified the Arrhenius radiative theory of catastrophic global warming from increased levels of CO2, and also thereby demonstrated that the Maxwell/Clausius/Carnot/Boltzmann/Feynman atmospheric mass/gravity/pressure greenhouse theory is instead the correct explanation of the 33C greenhouse effect on Earth, and which is independent of "radiative forcing" from greenhouse gases. 

Using observed data from the planets Earth, Venus, the Moon, Mars, Titan, and Triton, the authors,

"apply the Dimensional Analysis (DA) methodology to a well-constrained data set of six celestial bodies representing highly diverse physical environments in the solar system, i.e. Venus, Earth, the Moon, Mars, Titan (a moon of Saturn), and Triton (a moon of Neptune). Twelve prospective relationships (models) suggested by DA are investigated via non-linear regression analyses involving dimensionless products comprised of solar irradiance, greenhouse-gas partial pressure/density and total atmospheric pressure/density as forcing variables, and two temperature ratios as dependent (state) variables. One non-linear regression model is found to statistically outperform the rest by a wide margin. Our analysis revealed that GMATs [Global Mean Atmospheric Temperatures] of rocky planets can accurately be predicted over a broad range of atmospheric conditions [0% to over 96% greenhouse gases] and radiative regimes only using two forcing variables: top-of-the-atmosphere solar irradiance and total surface atmospheric pressure [a function of atmospheric mass & gravity]. The new model displays characteristics of an emergent macro-level thermodynamic relationship heretofore unbeknown to science that deserves further investigation and possibly a theoretical interpretation."

Fig. 4. 

Dependence of the relative atmospheric thermal enhancement (T_s/T_na) on mean surface air pressure according to Eq. (10a) derived from data representing a broad range of planetary environments in the Solar System. Saturn’s moon Titan has been excluded from the regression analysis leading to Eq. (10a). Error bars of some bodies are not clearly visible due to their small size relative to the scale of the axes. See Table 2 for the actual error estimates.

"The above comparisons indicate that Eq. (10b) rather accurately reproduces the observed variation of mean surface temperatures across a wide range of planetary environments characterized in terms of solar irradiance (from 1.5 W m^-2 to 2,602 W m^-2), total atmospheric pressure (from near vacuum to 9,300 kPa), and greenhouse-gas concentrations (from 0.0% to over 96% per volume). While true that Eq. (10a) is only based on data from 6 planetary bodies, one should keep in mind that these represent all objects in the Solar System meeting our criteria (discussed in Section 2.3) for the quality of available data. The fact that only one of the investigated twelve non-linear regressions yielded a tight relationship suggests that Model 12 might be describing a macro-level thermodynamic property of planetary atmospheres heretofore unbeknown to science . A function of such predictive skill spanning the breadth of the Solar System may not be just a result of chance. Indeed, complex natural systems consisting of myriad interacting agents have been known to exhibit emergent behaviors at higher levels of hierarchical organization that are amenable to accurate modeling using top-down statistical approaches (e.g. Stolk et al. 2003). Equation (10) also displays several other characteristics that lend further support to the above conjecture."

Comparison of the two best-performing regression models according to statistical scores presented inTable 5. Vertical axes use linear scale to better illustrate the difference in skills between the models.
Added: The top model incorporates greenhouse gas partial pressures and has a standard error over 20 times worse than the bottom model which does not consider greenhouse gas concentrations or radiative forcing whatsoever. 

Fig. 5. 

Absolute differences between predicted average global surface temperatures (Eq. 10b) and observed GMATs (Table 2) for studied celestial bodies. Titan represents an independent data point, since it was excluded from the non-linear regression analysis leading to Eq. (10a). 

Added: The surface temperatures of 5 planets are determined within hundredths of degrees C using the Eqn 10a as a sole function of surface pressure and solar insolation. 

Fig. 7. 

a)   Dry adiabatic response of the air/surface temperature ratio to pressure changes in the free atmosphere according to Poisson’s formula (Eq. 12). The reference pressure is arbitrarily assumed to be p_o=100${}_{}\mathrm{}$ kPa;b) The SB radiation law expressed as a response of a blackbody temperature ratio to variation in photon pressure (see text for details). Note the similarity in shape between these two curves and the one portrayed in Fig. 4 depicting Eq. (10a).

The authors have used a new empirical non-linear regression method of determining the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect on 6 planets, and "might be describing a macro-level thermodynamic property of planetary atmospheres heretofore unbeknown to science," but are apparently unaware of and do not cite any of the over 36 scientific works/papers (partial list below) which have described the theoretical basis of the same 33C Maxwell/Clausius/Carnot gravito-thermal effect of atmospheric pressure, some of which also utilize the Poisson relation as illustrated in Fig 7. from the paper above. 

Only one possible explanation of the 33C 'greenhouse' effect temperature gradient on Earth can be possible, otherwise the greenhouse effect would be twice as large (i.e. 66C):

1) The 33C Arrhenius radiative greenhouse theory from greenhouse gases (which confuses the cause with the effect and fails to explain the planetary temperatures of Venus, Earth, Mars, Titan, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, etc.)

OR

2) The 33C Maxwell/Clausius/Carnot gravito-thermal effect, proven by this new paper and the works/papers of at least 36 others (and very accurately predicts the surface and atmospheric temperatures of all rocky planets with an atmosphere in our solar system):

The HS greenhouse equation
The Maxwell/Clausius et al gravito-thermal 'greenhouse effect'
Richard Feynman
Boltzmann
Chilingar et al
1976 US Standard Atmosphere
International Standard Atmosphere & here
Hans Jelbring
Connolly & Connolly
Nikolov & Zeller
Mario Berberan-Santos et al
Claes Johnson and here
Velasco et al
Huffman
Giovanni Vladilo et al

Heinz Thieme

Stephen Wilde

Alberto Miatello

Gerhard Gerlich and Ralf D. Tscheuschner

Verity Jones
William C. Gilbert & here
The Barometric Formulae
Richard C. Tolman
Lorenz & McKay
Peter Morecombe
Ozawa et al
Murry Salby
Goran Ahlgren
Joe Postma
Charles Anderson
Wing and Cronin
Kimoto
Kalmanovitch/quantum physics

Pangburn

Pauli exclusion principle/quantum physics

Planck's quantum theory of blackbody radiation

Miskolczi
Kristian
Siddons
Poisson
Carnot
Helmholtz

Emergent Model for Predicting the Average Surface Temperature of Rocky Planets with Diverse Atmospheres

• Den Volokin^, , 
• Lark ReLlez

 Show more

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2015.08.006t

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Highlights

•

Dimensional Analysis is used to model the average temperature of planetary bodies.

•

The new model is derived via regression analysis of measured data from 6 bodies.

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Planetary bodies used by the model are Venus, Earth, Moon, Mars, Titan and Triton.

•

Two forcing variables are found to accurately predict mean planetary temperatures.

•

The predictor variables include solar irradiance and surface atmospheric pressure.

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Abstract

The Global Mean Annual near-surface Temperature (GMAT) of a planetary body is an expression of the available kinetic energy in the climate system and a critical parameter determining planet’s habitability. Previous studies have relied on theory-based mechanistic models to estimate GMATs of distant bodies such as extrasolar planets. This ‘bottom-up’ approach oftentimes relies on case-specific parameterizations of key physical processes (such as vertical convection and cloud formation) requiring detailed measurements in order to successfully simulate surface thermal conditions across diverse atmospheric and radiative environments. Here, we present a different ‘top-down’ statistical approach towards the development of a universal GMAT model that does not require planet-specific empirical adjustments. Our method is based on Dimensional Analysis (DA) of observed data from the Solar System. DA provides an objective technique for constructing relevant state and forcing variables while ensuring dimensional homogeneity of the final model. Although widely utilized in some areas of physical science to derive models from empirical data, DA is a rarely employed analytic tool in astronomy and planetary science. We apply the DA methodology to a well-constrained data set of six celestial bodies representing highly diverse physical environments in the solar system, i.e. Venus, Earth, the Moon, Mars, Titan (a moon of Saturn), and Triton (a moon of Neptune). Twelve prospective relationships (models) suggested by DA are investigated via non-linear regression analyses involving dimensionless products comprised of solar irradiance, greenhouse-gas partial pressure/density and total atmospheric pressure/density as forcing variables, and two temperature ratios as dependent (state) variables. One non-linear regression model is found to statistically outperform the rest by a wide margin. Our analysis revealed that GMATs of rocky planets can accurately be predicted over a broad range of atmospheric conditions and radiative regimes only using two forcing variables: top-of-the-atmosphere solar irradiance and total surface atmospheric pressure. The new model displays characteristics of an emergent macro-level thermodynamic relationship heretofore unbeknown to science that deserves further investigation and possibly a theoretical interpretation.

Maxwell's Demon proves why cold gases cannot make hot bodies hotter

James Clerk Maxwell is arguably the greatest physicist of all time on the topics of heat and radiation, and also perhaps the first to state in 1872 that Earth's temperature gradients and greenhouse effect are due to mass/gravity/pressure, rather than an effect of radiation from any infrared-active gases. 

Maxwell devised a simple and well-known thought experiment now called Maxwell's Demon, to prove why cold gases (such as the atmosphere at -18C on average), cannot make warmer gases or bodies (such as the Earth surface at +15C average) any warmer in violation of the second law of thermodynamics. 

The 2nd law of thermodynamics states disorder (called entropy) of any system (such as Earth's atmosphere) must always increase, and for any heat transfer to occcur from cold gases or bodies to warmer gases or bodies would result in an impossible decrease of entropy forbidden by the 2nd law of thermodynamics.

So, the next time someone claims a cold gas/body can make a warm body warmer, ask them for their solution to Maxwell's demon first:

Schematic of Maxwell's demon

Note: Maxwell along with his contemporaries and famous physicists including Clausius and Carnot (formally an engineer) all three agreed with each other in their writings that what is called today the 'greenhouse effect' was due only to the mass/gravity/pressure of the atmosphere, not radiation from gases. 

From Wikipedia entry on Maxwell's demon:

In the philosophy of thermal and statistical physics, Maxwell's demon is a thought experiment created by the physicist James Clerk Maxwell to "show that the Second Law of Thermodynamics has only a statistical certainty".^[1] It demonstrates Maxwell's point by hypothetically describing how to violate the Second Law: a container of gas molecules at equilibrium is divided into two parts by an insulated wall, with a door that can be opened and closed by what came to be called "Maxwell's demon". The demon opens the door to allow only the faster than average molecules to flow through to a favored side of the chamber, and only the slower than average molecules to the other side, causing the favored side to gradually heat up while the other side cools down, thus decreasing entropy.

The second law of thermodynamics ensures (through statistical probability) that two bodies of different temperature, when brought into contact with each other and isolated from the rest of the Universe, will evolve to a thermodynamic equilibrium in which both bodies have approximately the same temperature.^[6] The second law is also expressed as the assertion that in an isolated system, entropy never decreases.^[6]

Maxwell conceived a thought experiment as a way of furthering the understanding of the second law. His description of the experiment is as follows:^[6][7]

... if we conceive of a being whose faculties are so sharpened that he can follow every molecule in its course, such a being, whose attributes are as essentially finite as our own, would be able to do what is impossible to us. For we have seen that molecules in a vessel full of air at uniform temperature are moving with velocities by no means uniform, though the mean velocity of any great number of them, arbitrarily selected, is almost exactly uniform. Now let us suppose that such a vessel is divided into two portions, A and B, by a division in which there is a small hole, and that a being, who can see the individual molecules, opens and closes this hole, so as to allow only the swifter molecules to pass from A to B, and only the slower molecules to pass from B to A. He will thus, without expenditure of work, raise the temperature of B and lower that of A, in contradiction to the second law of thermodynamics.




Schematic figure of Maxwell's demon

In other words, Maxwell imagines one container divided into two parts, A andB.^[8][6] Both parts are filled with the same gas at equal temperatures and placed next to each other. Observing the molecules on both sides, an imaginary demonguards a trapdoor between the two parts. When a faster-than-average molecule from A flies towards the trapdoor, the demon opens it, and the molecule will fly from A to B. Likewise, when a slower-than-average molecule from B flies towards the trapdoor, the demon will let it pass from B to A. 

The average speed of the molecules in B will have increased while in A they will have slowed down on average. Since average molecular speed corresponds to temperature, the temperature decreases in Aand increases in B, contrary to the second law of thermodynamics. A heat engine operating between the thermal reservoirs A andB could extract useful work from this temperature difference.

The demon must allow molecules to pass in both directions in order to produce only a temperature difference; one-way passage only of faster-than-average molecules from A to B will cause higher temperature and pressure to develop on the B side.

Note cooling is not the new warming, and slowing of cooling is still cooling, not warming. 

Physicist Richard Feynman proved the Maxwell gravito-thermal greenhouse theory is correct & does not depend upon greenhouse gas concentrations

The great physicist Richard Feynman adds to three other giants of physics, Maxwell, Clausius, and Carnot, who have explained the "greenhouse effect" is solely a consequence of gravity, atmospheric mass, pressure, density, and heat capacities, and is not due to "trapped radiation" from IR-active or 'greenhouse' gas concentrations. 

Only one 33C greenhouse theory can be correct, either the 33C Arrhenius radiative greenhouse theory (the basis of CAGW alarm and climate models) or the 33C Maxwell/Clausius/Carnot/Feynman gravito-thermal greenhouse effect, since if both were true, the surface temperature would be an additional 33C warmer than the present. As we have previously shown, the Arrhenius greenhouse theory confuses the cause (gravito-thermal) with the effect (radiation from greenhouse gases).

In addition, the US Standard Atmosphere, the International Standard Atmosphere, the HS 'greenhouse equation,' Chilingar, et al derive the observed atmospheric temperature profile without use of a single greenhouse gas radiative transfer equation or calculation, and using the same basic atmospheric physics discussed by Feynman in his lecture below. Feynman does not make a single mention of radiation, radiative transfer, greenhouse gases, CO2, nor does he derive any radiative transfer equations to derive the atmospheric temperature profile, and instead utilizes the barometric and statistical mechanics formulas necessary to describe the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect of Maxwell et al (who Feynman quotes extensively below). Feynman demonstrates that an atmosphere comprised solely of the non-greenhouse gases N2 & O2 (99.94% of our atmosphere, but 100% in Feynman's demonstrations) would establish the temperature gradient/"greenhouse effect" observed in the troposphere.

Feynman demonstrates that the conservative force of gravity does indeed do continuous thermodynamic Work upon the atmosphere (a common false argument by those who do not accept the gravito-thermal GHE theory is that gravity allegedly can't do Work upon the atmosphere), and describes gravitational potential energy (PE) accumulated as air parcels rise/expand/cool, which is then exchanged for kinetic energy (KE) as the air parcel descends/compresses/warms, creating the temperature gradient & greenhouse effect. 

Another online version here with larger print

New paper finds increased CO2 or methane will have 'essentially no effect' upon global temperature or climate

A new paper by USC Professor Emeritus of Geology, Dr. George Chilingar (with three co-authors), finds that increasing levels of the greenhouse gases CO2 & methane will have "essentially no effect" upon global temperatures or climate. 

The authors utilize a one-dimensional adiabatic model of climate to demonstrate that the entire tropospheric temperature profile of the atmosphere on both Earth and Venus may be mathematically derived solely on the basis of atmospheric pressure/mass and solar activity, confirmed by observations on both planets, despite vast differences in atmospheric composition and mass/pressure on Earth and Venus. The paper corroborates the 33C Maxwell/Clausius/Carnot greenhouse theory and thereby excludes the alternative 33C Arrhenius radiative greenhouse theory.

Excerpts:

"The writers investigated the greenhouse effect using their adiabatic model, which relates the global temperature of troposphere to the atmospheric pressure and solar radiation. This model allows one to analyze the global temperature changes due to variations in mass and chemical composition of the atmosphere. Even significant releases of anthropogenic carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere do not change average parameters of the Earth’s heat regime and have no essential effect on the Earth’s climate warming. Moreover, based on the adiabatic model of heat transfer, the writers showed that additional releases of CO2 and CH4 lead to cooling (and not to warming as the proponents of the conventional theory of global warming state) of the Earth’s atmosphere. The additional methane releases possess a double cooling effect: First, they intensify convection in the lower layers of troposphere; Second, the methane together with associated water vapor intercept part of the infrared solar irradiation reaching the Earth. Thus, petroleum production and other anthropogenic activities resulting in accumulation of additional amounts of methane and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have practically no effect on the Earth’s climate."

Physically, an explanation of the cooling effect of the atmosphere with the high content of “greenhouse gases” is the high efficiency of the convective heat transfer from the planet’s surface to the lower stratosphere, from which this heat is rapidly dissipating into the outer space through radiation. As the greenhouse gases absorb the Earth’s heat radiation in the lower layers of troposphere, its energy transforms into the heat oscillations of the gas molecules. This, in turn, leads to expansion of the gas mixture and its rapid ascent to the stratosphere where the heat excess is lost through radiation into the outer space.  

To replace these volumes of the warm air, the already cooled air descends from the upper troposphere. As a result, the global average atmospheric temperature slightly decreases. One particular consequence of it is that with an increase in the carbon dioxide and methane contents in troposphere the convective mass exchange of the atmospheric gases must substantially accelerate. Thus, it is not out of the question that the intensification of synoptic processes in Earth troposphere (but not temperature increase) may be a result of the carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse gases” accumulation."

The primary equation of the paper [2] is similar to the 'greenhouse equation' described in a recent series of posts on the 33C Maxwell/Clausius/Carnot greenhouse theory. 

The "Greenhouse Equation" calculates temperature (T) at any location from the surface to the top of the troposphere as a function of atmospheric mass/gravity/pressure and radiative forcing from the Sun only, and without any radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. Note the pressure (P) divided by 2 in the greenhouse equation is the pressure at the center of mass of the atmosphere (after density correction), where the temperature and height are equal to the equilibrium temperature with the Sun and ERL respectively.

The primary differences between Chilingar et al equation [2] and the 'greenhouse equation' are:

1. Chilingar et al introduce a correction for solar insolation based on the Earth's precession angle of 23.44 degrees 

2. Chilingar et al assume an Earth surface temperature of 288K or 15C, whereas the HS 'greenhouse equation' only assumes the equilibrium temperature of the Earth with the Sun (255K or -18C) & atmospheric mass/pressure to derive the surface temperature, as well as that of the entire troposphere, replicating the 1976 US Standard Atmosphere. 

An upcoming post will join the mathematics of these two equations to explain the entire temperature profile of the atmosphere from the surface to the edge of space at 100+ km geopotential altitude, without incorporating 'radiative forcing' from CO2. 

 

Lapse Rates for Dummies or Smarties, With & Without Greenhouse Gases

Some commenters have claimed that a theoretical pure Nitrogen (N2) Earth atmosphere without any IR-active 'greenhouse gases' could not have a lapse rate nor a Maxwell et al gravito-thermal greenhouse effect.

However, many prior posts have shown this to be false for a number of reasons, including two posts quoting the Feynman lectures on statistical mechanics of a Boltzmann Distribution pure N2 atmosphere, and the HS post, "Why Greenhouse Gases Don't Affect the Greenhouse Equation or Lapse Rate," which also calculates a pure N2 Boltzmann Distribution for Earth. 

We will now use a couple of illustrations for smarties or dummies to understand why the so-called 'greenhouse gas' water vapor cools, not warms, the Earth surface by up to ~25C via changes in heat capacity (Cp) alone (not even including additional cooling from latent heat transfer or clouds). We will also show why a pure N2 atmosphere without any greenhouse gases would have a surface temperature ~25C warmer than the present, due to a much steeper lapse rate.

Recall that the dry adiabatic lapse rate formula is a very simple, linear relationship whereby the change in temperature (dT) with change in height from the surface (dh) is solely dependent upon the gravitational acceleration constant (g) divided by the heat capacity of the atmosphere at constant pressure (Cp):

dT/dh = -g/Cp

And note that change in temperature dT is inversely related to change in heat capacity (Cp). Since water vapor has a much higher heat capacity Cp than air or pure N2, addition of water vapor greatly decreases the lapse rate (dT/dh) by almost one-half (from ~9.8K/km to ~5K/km), thereby cooling, not warming, the surface by up to 25C. 

In our hypothetical 1st atmosphere consisting only of N2 plus addition of < 1% water vapor, we assume the addition of water vapor creates a wet adiabatic lapse rate of 5K/km, the same as the wet adiabatic lapse rate on Earth. By calculating the center of mass as the HS Greenhouse Eqn does, and calculating the fixed 255K equilibrium temperature between the Earth and Sun, we can then calculate the entire tropospheric temperature profile from the surface to tropopause, and replicate the 1976 US Standard Atmosphere model:

Thought experiment 1 of a N2 atmosphere with < 1% GHG water vapor. Note for easy illustrative purposes only, the actual numbers are rounded slighly, e.g. the actual height of the center of mass is ~5.1km rather than 5.0 km, and the actual dry adiabatic lapse rate is ~9.8K/km, not 10K/km.

Note in the above "greenhouse atmosphere," there is a ~33C "greenhouse effect" from the 255K center of mass to the ~288K surface, as well as an even larger "anti-greenhouse effect" of negative 35K from the 255K center of mass to the ~220K top of troposphere. Thus, gravity has not added any energy to the atmospheric system; gravity has simply redistributed the available energy from the only source the Sun, more towards the surface and less towards the top of the troposphere. That is the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect of Poisson, Maxwell, Clausius, Carnot, Boltzmann, Feynman, US Std Atmosphere, HS greenhouse eqn et al, and has no dependence whatsoever upon IR emission/absorption from greenhouse gases.

Now lets consider a hypothetical Earth atmosphere without any greenhouse gases, consisting solely of pure N2. We again use the dry lapse rate equation above, since obviously N2 is affected by gravity (g) and has a heat capacity (Cp). In this pure N2 Boltzmann distribution, the lapse rate can thus be calculated as ~10K/km, essentially the same as our present atmosphere dry lapse rate (9.8K/km). 

For illustrative purposes only, the atmospheric mass of a pure N2 atmosphere is close to that of our present atmosphere, and thus the center of mass is also located near ~5km in the troposphere. However, since the lapse rate is much steeper in a pure N2 atmosphere, the "greenhouse effect" is about 50K from the 255K center of mass to 305K surface, and the "anti-greenhouse effect" is also ~50K from the 255K center of mass to the ~205K top of the troposphere, producing a ~100K temperature gradient from the surface to top of the troposphere:

Thus, we find the net effect of the addition of < 1% 'greenhouse gas' water vapor was to cool, not warm the surface of an N2 atmosphere by up to ~25C. 

Thus, the Arrhenius radiative greenhouse theory (which confuses the cause with the effect) is once again demonstrated to be unphysical and falsified, and the Maxwell et al gravito-thermal greenhouse effect once again vindicated. One and only one of these two competing greenhouse theories can be correct, otherwise the observed effect would be double (66C) that observed (33C). The Maxwell et al theory is the only option which does not violate any laws of thermodynamics.