What is the cause of the ~60 year quasi-cycle? I noticed this just a little while ago.
The Earth's rotation axis is nutating with a period of about 18.6 years. However, that is only part of the story. In actual fact, the nutation takes the form of an elliptical cone, as shown here:
The distance between the J2000 polar axis and the actual rotation axis looks like this. Its period is necessarily halved, to about 9.3 years:
Thus, the magnitude of the component of the magnetic moment of the Sun along the Earth's rotation axis should have periods of about
T1 = 11*9.3/(11+9.3) = 5 years
T2 = 11*9.3/(11-9.3) = 60 years
Coincidence? Maybe. But, is there not a 5-ish year quasi-periodicity to the major temperature sets? Hard to say for sure, but there surely are several ups and downs which are in the neighborhood of 5 years:
Thanks Bart, I would add that a Fourier analysis does suggest a 5 year periodicity of the HADCRU surface temperature dataset, as well as the well-known 60 year climate cycle:
Several papers relating the 60 year climate cycle to solar activity, ocean oscillations [which are in-turn driven by solar activity], and lunar-tidal cycles:
New paper finds planetary motions explain climate; predicts stable climate
New paper finds natural variability accounts for > 50% of long-term temperature change in many regions over past century
Paper: At least 60% of global warming since 1970 is natural
'Polar vortex' that caused record cold is related to solar activity, not man-made CO2
New paper shows how natural ocean oscillations control climate
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS7Fuuoo5XiBrIXwHKpSZkQK5UoU4UmkHVl_gUsXN2-C8u_dn8aQ9IGQiLnU1_y2PaTMSKCRlwNmyfqH5FtaZ90Qz5Jgu4rAXphEJoWgGph71UeoEUZnTnMYWf9S6ZZexx5n83-bim0-yK/s400/Fullscreen+capture+4252011+71841+PM.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEhdG93v5wFdxh73DdgIbFZ4AAQWnldSNp1YptEZYTu4XMv7BvZ_b4KCEAlHe10gVl0xLctPjAZ1bKYGQDVHC_zdLOb6xeE0N86W7E6pu72Kw-mQ7COQAwKpCJoMXqtPQA_Tslbn1cY6vUr55EfEjI_ZUapjHoVHKOcs6v5kDIB8WoBODa9J3fvsCztVsu17E7vTHR18XQsqf5c1SQqS12bUOZYT61yKBr7qhkDmVFsUn9bpVaEv-xZXE2qVeLsGZBqYXzKl0RTDWdHBsNwyPz3yXCVUeSsYmsXZxNEhxPsIn91k9KwgO1goG585kYKwW2bzKxfzhVK2oTXKfbgmDlDANcp6LgqJwdh1B0IdOcjNHTzr0zxt0VsHXFajbQMwtswmRhAw6ZjCuy7NqTeBnL4zARdjpU_En7oGY73babi42YSBqDGHeWSwKpR-bC805wDN4g_MUBbUlbtZseRkmbUP_4dflP8naoV61XGfPeJ4rUlamtNDVoXS-TxDlEjQ=)
Fourier analysis of HADCRU surface temperatures, sunspots, PDO, AMO. The AMO shows the closest correlation with solar activity.
Fourier Analysis of Climate: Next ~50 yrs Cooler
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm-eBX4wMYaZ42lfNuslp80PybnXkdS6J5o-ZoLQ7gY3st27G6OooQmllkNdvBkvajvPcF5DC6OOfkZqe9BAPQQIQ7tGi4LQ54PBMHuBTRuUGpml1YhBs7ZCh35ltoi21ITd_XeH8tiZKW/s320/Fullscreen+capture+4272010+91924+AM.jpg)
New paper finds natural variability accounts for > 50% of long-term temperature change in many regions over past century
Paper: At least 60% of global warming since 1970 is natural
'Polar vortex' that caused record cold is related to solar activity, not man-made CO2
New paper shows how natural ocean oscillations control climate
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS7Fuuoo5XiBrIXwHKpSZkQK5UoU4UmkHVl_gUsXN2-C8u_dn8aQ9IGQiLnU1_y2PaTMSKCRlwNmyfqH5FtaZ90Qz5Jgu4rAXphEJoWgGph71UeoEUZnTnMYWf9S6ZZexx5n83-bim0-yK/s400/Fullscreen+capture+4252011+71841+PM.jpg)
Fourier analysis of HADCRU surface temperatures, sunspots, PDO, AMO. The AMO shows the closest correlation with solar activity.
Fourier Analysis of Climate: Next ~50 yrs Cooler
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm-eBX4wMYaZ42lfNuslp80PybnXkdS6J5o-ZoLQ7gY3st27G6OooQmllkNdvBkvajvPcF5DC6OOfkZqe9BAPQQIQ7tGi4LQ54PBMHuBTRuUGpml1YhBs7ZCh35ltoi21ITd_XeH8tiZKW/s320/Fullscreen+capture+4272010+91924+AM.jpg)
60-year periodicity in the PDO during the instrument era (first graph) and from paleoclimate reconstructions (second graph).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLaM7hCp3r3vTVNYrwSR51uCkj5rzXZb21ZT2TdnXqlShcDF5M84yHMFRcv3w6KSkJ9RCmQnuFobue9xdFNISN_qEtxWQi2u8jnDyZ172K-6UhVPYm9yAYZbHuISdea414c9N5BEdP-9z_/s320/Fullscreen+capture+4272010+91949+AM.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkENnCHcqdkchJCm8IUVM6Ax06UTUABhzthTFUNw77yRQPJCHZAiq8EHsw6s8b0-jZXXU_0VbvBDpprfL2TKYeWr7H0u64Q2-_wKvHcZyrxPU-Q8Rin3rnQ-ypRD5DsHr4whsJwCRwl2BB/s320/Fullscreen+capture+4272010+91958+AM.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLaM7hCp3r3vTVNYrwSR51uCkj5rzXZb21ZT2TdnXqlShcDF5M84yHMFRcv3w6KSkJ9RCmQnuFobue9xdFNISN_qEtxWQi2u8jnDyZ172K-6UhVPYm9yAYZbHuISdea414c9N5BEdP-9z_/s320/Fullscreen+capture+4272010+91949+AM.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkENnCHcqdkchJCm8IUVM6Ax06UTUABhzthTFUNw77yRQPJCHZAiq8EHsw6s8b0-jZXXU_0VbvBDpprfL2TKYeWr7H0u64Q2-_wKvHcZyrxPU-Q8Rin3rnQ-ypRD5DsHr4whsJwCRwl2BB/s320/Fullscreen+capture+4272010+91958+AM.jpg)
Pacific sea surface temperatures also show a periodicity of ~60 years in this wavelet analysis |
Thanks for the additional info. I don't think I'd elevate this to a "theory" as yet, though. Maybe an hypothesis, or even just something to mull over and consider. -Bart
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