New paper finds solar activity affected climate of North Atlantic region over past 200 years

A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds a significant link between solar activity [sunspots] and long term trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation, stating, "we infer that the level of solar activity played a role in the trends of the past two centuries in the North Atlantic region." The authors suggest a possible mechanism for this influence, noting that the temperature difference between the equator and the North Pole is larger when sunspots & solar activity are low. Temperature differentials in turn drive the bulk of weather patterns.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 117, D07106, 8 PP., 2012
doi:10.1029/2012JD017502

Trends in sunspots and North Atlantic sea level pressure

Key Points

• The NAO was stronger and the baroclinity steeper in 1878–1944 than in 1944–2008
• Long-term trends in the NAO Index are linked to the trend in sunspot number
• Solar activity relates to North Atlantic Ocean and atmosphere trends

Harry van Loon

Colorado Research Associates Division, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Climate and Global Dynamics Division and Advanced Study Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Jeremiah Brown

Colorado Research Associates Division, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Ralph F. Milliff

Colorado Research Associates Division, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, Colorado, USA

We analyze the periods 1878–1944 and 1944–2008. The quasi-stationary wave in the North Atlantic region was stronger and the baroclinity steeper in 1878–1944 than in 1944–2008. The North Atlantic Oscillation Index—as defined by the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia—was higher in the former period too. We illustrate these statements by maps of sea level pressure and air temperature at the surface. The long-term trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index are linked to the trend in sunspot number such that when, in the mean, the sunspot numbers were high (Gleissberg maxima) the trends in the two quantities were parallel; and when the mean sunspot numbers were low (Gleissberg minima) the trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and sunspots were opposite. We find the connections between the trends statistically significant, and we infer that the level of solar activity played a role in the trends of the past two centuries in the North Atlantic region. However, we cannot as yet provide a mechanism linking the solar trends to those in the atmosphere and ocean, but as a step toward an explanation, the equator to pole temperature gradient is steeper in a Gleissberg minimum than in a maximum.

North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) vs. Sunspots

Wavelet analysis in top graph shows ~11 year sunspot cycle  [how to interpret a wavelet analysis] Bottom graph shows long-term correlations between NAO and solar activity