|The Central Greenland surface temperature from GISP2 project for the past 4000 years (blue line) and the modeled temperature adopting only 3 periods at 2804-year, 1186-year and 556-year. The 3-period model was able to replicate most of the observed changes (with one major exception at around the warming peak of 3 to 400 AD) and forecasted a large cooling trend in contrast to the IPCC-predicted rising atmospheric CO2 scenario from computer climate models. [caption from the NIPCC report]|
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Paper: Global 'warming since 1850 is mainly the result of natural climate variations'
A recent paper finds that global "'warming since 1850 is mainly the result of natural climate variations," showing that a simple model of natural climate cycles accurately reproduces the past 4,000 years of ice core data including the Medieval Warming Period, Little Ice Age, Roman Warming Period, and Minoan Warming Period. This feat has so far completely eluded the computer models utilized by the IPCC. The author's simple natural-cycle model predicts "that the present post-[Little Ice Age] warm period is likely to continue for most of the 21st century" followed by another cooling phase.
Posted by MS at 6:37 PM