New paper demonstrates temperature drives CO2 levels, not man-made CO2

A recent paper published in Nature Climate Change finds a disconnect between man-made CO2 and atmospheric levels of CO2, demonstrating that despite a sharp 25% increase in man-made CO2 emissions since 2003, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 has slowed sharply since 2002/2003. The data shows that while the growth rate of man-made emissions was relatively stable from 1990-2003, the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 surged up to the record El Nino of 1997-1998. Conversely, growth in man-made emissions surged ~25% from 2003-2011, but the change in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 has flatlined since 1999 along with global temperatures. The data demonstrates temperature drives CO2 levels due to ocean outgassing, man-made CO2 does not drive temperature, and that man is not the primary cause of the rise in CO2 levels.

Man-made CO2 emissions shown in black, growth rate of atmospheric CO2 shown in blue

Fig. 2 from Francey et al. The CO2 growth rate has declined in 2002 despite increasing emissions

From the prior post: Single graph demonstrates man-made CO2 is not the driver of global warming 

Plot for yourself here a single graph that simultaneously demonstrates the clear observational evidence that 

• temperature drives CO2
• CO2 does not drive temperature
• man is not the primary cause of the rise in CO2 levels

The effect follows the cause; the cause does not follow the effect. Short-term global temperature changes precede CO2 levels by about 1 year as shown by observations, and by 800+ years in ice core data.

Atmospheric verification of anthropogenic CO₂ emission trends

• Roger J. Francey,
• Cathy M. Trudinger,
• Marcel van der Schoot,
• Rachel M. Law,
• Paul B. Krummel,
• Ray L. Langenfelds,
• L. Paul Steele,
• Colin E. Allison,
• Ann R. Stavert,
• Robert J. Andres
• & Christian Rödenbeck

• Affiliations
• Contributions
• Corresponding authors

Nature Climate Change 3, 520–524 (2013) doi:10.1038/nclimate1817 

Abstract: International efforts to limit global warming and ocean acidification aim to slow the growth of atmospheric CO₂, guided primarily by national and industry estimates of production and consumption of fossil fuels. Atmospheric verification of emissions is vital but present global inversion methods are inadequate for this purpose. We demonstrate a clear response in atmospheric CO₂ coinciding with a sharp 2010 increase in Asian emissions but show persisting slowing mean CO₂ growth from 2002/03. Growth and inter-hemispheric concentration difference during the onset and recovery of the Global Financial Crisis support a previous speculation that the reported 2000–2008 emissions surge is an artefact, most simply explained by a cumulative underestimation (~ 9 Pg C) of 1994–2007 emissions; in this case, post-2000 emissions would track mid-range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. An alternative explanation requires changes in the northern terrestrial land sink that offset anthropogenic emission changes. We suggest atmospheric methods to help resolve this ambiguity.