According to the authors,
"Overall, the increased accumulation computed by the atmosphere models outweighs ice stream acceleration so that the net contribution to sea level rise is negative."Furthermore, the authors predict the grounding line of this ice shelf system will have "little grounding line retreat" and thus it very unlikely this ice sheet will break off from the continent.
The Cryosphere, 8, 1057-1068, 2014
1School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK
2Arctic Center, Lapland University, 96101, Rovaniemi, Finland
3School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
Abstract. The interaction between the climate system and the large polar ice sheet regions is a key process in global environmental change. We carried out dynamic ice simulations of one of the largest drainage systems in East Antarctica: the Lambert Glacier–Amery Ice Shelf system, with an adaptive mesh ice sheet model. The ice sheet model is driven by surface accumulation and basal melt rates computed by the FESOM (Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model) ocean model and the RACMO2 (Regional Atmospheric Climate Model) and LMDZ4 (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoom) atmosphere models. The change of ice thickness and velocity in the ice shelf is mainly influenced by the basal melt distribution, but, although the ice shelf thins in most of the simulations, there is little grounding line retreat. We find that the Lambert Glacier grounding line can retreat as much as 40 km if there is sufficient thinning of the ice shelf south of Clemence Massif, but the ocean model does not provide sufficiently high melt rates in that region. Overall, the increased accumulation computed by the atmosphere models outweighs ice stream acceleration so that the net contribution to sea level rise is negative.