According to the authors, the modeled mechanism is
"The weakened AMOC can be explained in the following. The weak total solar irradiance (TIS) during early twentieth century decreases pole-to-equator temperature gradient in the upper stratosphere. The North polar vortex is weakened, which forces a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during 1905–1914. The negative phase of NAO induces anomalous easterly winds in 50–70° N belts, which decrease the release of heat fluxes from ocean to atmosphere and induce surface warming over these regions. Through the surface ice–albedo feedback, the warming may lead to continuously melting sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, which results in freshwater accumulation. This can lead to salinity and density reductions and then an abrupt slowdown of AMOC."The AMOC and NAO ocean oscillations in turn have profound effects on other ocean and atmospheric oscillations and the global climate. The paper joins many other peer-reviewed publications linking solar activity to lagged effects on ocean and atmospheric oscillations and may represent yet another solar amplification mechanism.
Clim. Past Discuss., 10, 2519-2546, 2014
www.clim-past-discuss.net/10/2519/2014/ doi:10.5194/cpd-10-2519-2014 |
1State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2College of Earth Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Abstract. In this study, we explore an abrupt change of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) apparent in the historical run simulated by the second version of the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model – Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2). The abrupt change is noted during the period from 1915 to 1935, in which the maximal AMOC value is weakened beyond 6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). The abrupt signal first occurs at high latitudes (north of 46° N), then shifts gradually to middle latitudes (∼35° N) three to seven years later. The weakened AMOC can be explained in the following. The weak total solar irradiance (TIS) during early twentieth century decreases pole-to-equator temperature gradient in the upper stratosphere. The North polar vortex is weakened, which forces a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during 1905–1914. The negative phase of NAO induces anomalous easterly winds in 50–70° N belts, which decrease the release of heat fluxes from ocean to atmosphere and induce surface warming over these regions. Through the surface ice–albedo feedback, the warming may lead to continuously melting sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, which results in freshwater accumulation. This can lead to salinity and density reductions and then an abrupt slowdown of AMOC. Moreover, due to increased TIS after 1914, the enhanced Atlantic northward ocean heat transport from low to high latitudes induces an abrupt warming of sea surface temperature or upper ocean temperature in mid–high latitudes, which can also weaken the AMOC. The abrupt change of AMOC also appears in the PiControl run, which is associated with the lasting negative NAO phases due to natural variability.
A Nature paper from 12/08/14 suggests abrupt and significant climate changes occur due to the dominant influence the Antlantic Multidecadal Overturning Circulation has on the climate.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the authors, the AMOC modulates air temperature by 1–3 °C, may cause "cooling of up to 8 °C in regions with large sea-ice changes", may cause droughts, and may cause sea levels to fluctuate by up to 80 cm along the coasts.
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/141208/ncomms6752/full/ncomms6752.html
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the global climate system, responsible for a large fraction of the 1.3 PW northward heat transport in the Atlantic basin. Numerical modelling experiments suggest that without a vigorous AMOC, surface air temperature in the North Atlantic region would cool by around 1–3 °C, with enhanced local cooling of up to 8 °C in regions with large sea-ice changes. Substantial weakening of the AMOC would also cause a southward shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone, encouraging Sahelian drought, and dynamic changes in sea level of up to 80 cm along the coasts of North America and Europe. Theoretical arguments, numerical models of varying complexity and evidence from palaeoclimate proxy records support the existence of two stable AMOC states—‘on’ and ‘off’. A reduction in density of the surface waters of the North Atlantic (through an increase in freshwater input or surface warming) can inhibit the formation of deep water and weaken the AMOC. In some model states, a weakening of the AMOC can result in an increase of freshwater transport into the Atlantic, resulting in a positive feedback. Numerical model projections suggest that the AMOC is likely to weaken over the 21st century, but the likelihood of an abrupt collapse is very uncertain, partly because most state-of-the-art climate models used for future projections cannot yet correctly simulate past abrupt climate changes. This has generated interest in the possibility that generic early warning signals could exist before abrupt AMOC transitions.