Monday, August 11, 2014

New paper finds multiple solar amplification mechanisms which modulate winter surface temperatures

A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres finds "significant differences in the temperature patterns" of the Northern Hemisphere winter dependent upon the "four [phases of the solar cycle], which indicates a solar cycle modulation of winter surface temperatures." Thus, the paper describes 4 potential solar amplification mechanisms in relation to 4 phases of each solar cycle, and possibly a fifth related to solar modulation of the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] as has been found by prior papers. 

According to the authors,

"Several recent studies have found variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter climate related to different parameters of solar activity. While these results consistently indicate some kind of solar modulation of tropospheric and stratospheric circulation and surface temperature, opinions on the exact mechanism and the solar driver differ. Proposed drivers include, e.g., total solar irradiance (TSI), solar UV radiation, galactic cosmic rays and magnetospheric energetic particles. 
While some of these drivers are difficult to distinguish because of their closely similar variation over the solar cycle, other suggested drivers have clear differences in their solar cycle evolution. For example, geomagnetic activity and magnetospheric particle fluxes peak in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle, in difference to TSI and UV radiation which more closely follow sunspots. Using 13 solar cycles (1869–2009) we study winter surface temperatures and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during four different phases of the sunspot cycle: minimum, ascending, maximum and declining phase. 
We find significant differences in the temperature patterns between the four cycle phases, which indicates a solar cycle modulation of winter surface temperatures. However, the clearest pattern of the temperature anomalies is not found during sunspot maximum or minimum, but during the declining phase, when the temperature pattern closely resembles the pattern found during positive NAO. Moreover, we find the same pattern during the low sunspot activity cycles of 100 years ago, suggesting that the pattern is largely independent of the overall level of solar activity."
The authors find this "pattern [similar to the positive NAO] is largely independent of the overall level of solar activity," therefore climate scientists trying to correlate Total Solar Irradiance [TSI], which is considered by many in climate science to represent "the overall level of solar activity," will not see such patterns or even look for them or simulate them with climate models. 

By solely focusing on TSI and ignoring e.g. large changes solar UV of up to 100% over a single solar cycle, geomagnetic changes, ignoring all potential solar amplification mechanisms, climate models dismiss the role of the Sun in climate change. 


Spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures during different phases of the solar cycle

V. Maliniemi*, T. Asikainen and K. Mursula

Several recent studies have found variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter climate related to different parameters of solar activity. While these results consistently indicate some kind of solar modulation of tropospheric and stratospheric circulation and surface temperature, opinions on the exact mechanism and the solar driver differ. Proposed drivers include, e.g., total solar irradiance (TSI), solar UV radiation, galactic cosmic rays and magnetospheric energetic particles. While some of these drivers are difficult to distinguish because of their closely similar variation over the solar cycle, other suggested drivers have clear differences in their solar cycle evolution. For example, geomagnetic activity and magnetospheric particle fluxes peak in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle, in difference to TSI and UV radiation which more closely follow sunspots. Using 13 solar cycles (1869–2009) we study winter surface temperatures and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during four different phases of the sunspot cycle: minimum, ascending, maximum and declining phase. We find significant differences in the temperature patterns between the four cycle phases, which indicates a solar cycle modulation of winter surface temperatures. However, the clearest pattern of the temperature anomalies is not found during sunspot maximum or minimum, but during the declining phase, when the temperature pattern closely resembles the pattern found during positive NAO. Moreover, we find the same pattern during the low sunspot activity cycles of 100 years ago, suggesting that the pattern is largely independent of the overall level of solar activity.

2 comments:

  1. The Maliniemi paper has very similar proposals to my New Climate Model but whereas I suggested wavelength and particle variations as causing circulation changes they add other possible variables such as cosmic rays and solar magnetic effects.

    Whatever the causative factors they seem to agree that they work on atmospheric chemistry thereby altering the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles which is what I have proposed.

    If one accepts that as the relevant mechanism then the resultant
    cloudiness changes cause the cascade of events set out in my model.

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    Replies
    1. Stephen,

      Do not forget changes in ozone which have been found to affect wind speed in the Antarctica circumpolar Current (West Wind Drift.)
      .....

      ABSTRACT
      Surface westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere have intensified over the past few decades, primarily in response to the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole, and there is intense debate on the impact of this on the ocean overturning circulation and carbon uptake. Here, we use measurements of CFC-12 made in the southern oceans in the early 1990s and mid- to late-2000s to examine changes in ocean ventilation. Our analysis of the CFC-12 data reveals a decrease in the age of subtropical mode waters and an increase in the age of circumpolar deep waters at similar depths, and suggests that the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole has caused large-scale coherent changes in the ventilation of the southern oceans.
      http://eaps-www.mit.edu/paoc/events/sls-darryn-waugh-jhu-changes-ventilation-southern-oceans-due-stratospheric-ozone-depletion


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