Sunday, August 10, 2014

Solar activity drives CO2 levels

Hypothesis: Increasing accumulated solar activity [sunspot time-integral] since the Maunder Minimum 1645-1715 AD has warmed the oceans and land, warming of the oceans has increased ocean outgassing of CO2 [Henry's Law] and has been the primary cause of increased atmospheric CO2 levels. Ocean temperatures driven by solar activity control atmospheric CO2 levels on short, intermediate, and long-term timescales.

Accumulated solar energy drives global surface temperatures:





Solar activity drives sea surface temperatures:







Solar activity drives ocean oscillations [plus possible lunar-solar tide influence]:






Source 
And also see this paper finding solar activity drives the NAO with a lag of a few years

And an increase of accumulated solar energy [sunspot time-integral] warms the bulk of the oceans due to the deep penetration of high-energy solar UV of up to 100 meter depth [vs. only a few microns penetration of longwave IR from greenhouse gases].


The sunspot time-integral shown in green has been on an increasing trend since the beginning of the Mauna Loa CO2 record shown in red. Increasing solar activity warms the oceans, which drives CO2 outgassing via Henry's Law, increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere.


Plot graph here that simultaneously demonstrates the observational evidence that 
  • temperature drives CO2
  • CO2 does not drive temperature
  • man is not the primary cause of the rise in CO2 levels







And CO2 lags temperatures on long-term timescales by ~800 years:





Note increased IR "back-radiation" from greenhouse gases cannot warm the oceans, and if anything, increases evaporative cooling of the ocean skin surface, which acts as a negative feedback via surface cooling and more clouds. 




Also note if increased solar activity warms the oceans, the solubility of CO2 in the oceans decreases due to Henry's Law, thus preventing "acidification" of the oceans. If the oceans are warming due to any cause, Henry's Law says solubility of CO2 decreases and outgassing increases, preventing "acidification" from man-made and natural sources of CO2. Warnings about ocean acidification are misleading and overblown:

But you simply cannot have it both ways – that is an “Inconvenient Truth” !! 
Either the oceans are getting warmer and the CO2 concentration in seawater is decreasing – which means that ocean acidification by man-made CO2 from the atmosphere is complete BS !! 
- or - 
The man-made CO2 from the atmosphere IS dissolving in cooler oceans causing ocean acidification – which means that warming oceans and the associated sea level rises are BS !! 
Take your pick – REAL SCIENCE says you can’t have both. 
-Rosco Mac

12 comments:

  1. Your conclusions match my own. There are more secrets hidden in the graph here http://climate4you.com/images/SunspotsMonthlySIDC%20and%20HadSST3%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1960%20WithSunspotPeriodNumber.gif that you used to show the correspondence of SST to SSN.

    Great job HS!

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    1. Thanks!

      Are you keeping them secret?

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    2. Not for long!

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  2. Great Post,

    The argument that I have used to show why the AGW desire (it was never a scientific theory) should never have made it past anything more than a fleeting concept.

    On the CO2 lagging temp graphs CO2 continues to rise after Temp peaks and starts to fall.

    If CO2 was all powerful Then CO2 continuing to rise would have never allowed the temp to continue to fall. Thus the true driver of Temp is enormously more powerful than CO2.

    Therefore CO2 driven AGW should never have made it past more than an idle thought in some idiots head.

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    1. You are so right!

      And that's only one of many other reasons why AGW is nonsense.

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  3. Wow. Outstanding post. An if a Maunder Minimum is here...

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  4. Can temperature alone really do it? Maybe. If it somehow creates an assymmetric, differential rate in upwelling and downwelling. Or, it could be that the modern era has seen an upward shift in the CO2 concentration of upwelling waters, which was my hypothesis here.

    The best overall match between the dCO2/dt = k*(T – Teq) model and the data is with the satellite data, here, and integrated here. Otherwise, ground based indices seem to match SH temperatures best here, and integrated here.

    -Bart

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    1. Thanks Bart for your insightful comments as always!

      Better match in SH than NH since proportionally much more ocean in SH?

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    2. Nice post I did a little post last year called 'Digging into the core: Why the increase in CO2 is probably natural'. It is not possible that the increase in CO2 is all anthropogenic because of the fast-equilibra of Henry's law.

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    3. "Better match in SH than NH since proportionally much more ocean in SH?"

      That was my first belief. However, the even better match with the global satellite data suggests to me SH may simply be a less corrupted measurement than NH. Fewer "adjustments", perhaps?

      -Bart

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  5. It's been a long, long time since I took chemistry, but if I remember correctly you may be misapplying Henry's law. It is true the solubility of CO2 decreases with temperature in the moderate temperature range if all else is held constant, but that's not the case here -- because CO2 solubility increases with the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (the vapor pressure). The constants in Henry's law are derived experimentally, so someone with the time and energy could figure out the exact relative effects -- but if I remember correctly, it would take a significant and probably world-changing rise in ocean temperature to overcome the effect of a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in increasing ocean acidity.

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    1. This post presents the hypothesis that the primary source of atm CO2 has been from solar-driven ocean warming. If that hypothesis is correct, the CO2 content of the ocean has to decrease until equilibrium between partial pressures or ocean starts cooling.

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