Analysis finds man-made CO2 emissions only remain in atmosphere for ~5 years, not thousands

The IPCC claims man-made CO2 emissions [only 4% of total CO2 emissions] remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years, as opposed to the 96% of CO2 emissions from nature which have a lifetime of only about 5 years. Climate scientist Pehr Björnbom, author of a published paper finding low CO2 climate sensitivity, has a new post today on the fallacy that man-made CO2 remains in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. Dr. Bjornbom reviews the findings of Dr. Gösta Pettersson, Professor Emeritus of biochemistry and specialist in reaction kinetics, and author of the book 'False Alarm.' Dr. Pettersson finds the computer model ["The Bern Model'] used by the IPCC to predict CO2 lifetimes of over 100 years is highly flawed and is strongly contradicted by observations from both atomic bomb testing and atmospheric levels of CO2 [the Keeling Curve]. 

Reblogged from "The Climate Scam" (Netherlands, Google translation):

Climate simulations and observations are contrary to each other: Bomb Test Curve

17/05/2013 by Pehr Björnbom .

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Picture: Trial blast at Bikini Atoll in 1954, from Wikipedia .

Gösta Pettersson points out that bomb test curve is not consistent with climate models, mainly the so-called Bern model. Here I compare the simulations with the Bern model published by Solomon et al (2009) with bomb test curve. It is clear that theory and observations are strongly in conflict.

Gösta Pettersson, who is professor emeritus of biochemistry and specialist in reaction kinetics, in his book False Alarm (see references below) and in a guest post at TCS brought the issue of bomb test curve, namely the curve of the reduction of the presence of measurable radioactive carbon dioxide from nuclear bomb tests in atmosphere. I believe that Gösta Pettersson's book is a very valuable popular science topics in climate change. It gives a skeptical, thoughtful and coherent story about climate science. One of the most central parts of the book is the story of the bomb test curve.

It is generally accepted in the climate science of the very long term, then human (anthropogenic) emissions of fossil carbon dioxide that is absorbed by the ocean and biosphere was close to 100% because the kolreservoaren in the sea is about 60 times larger than kolreservoaren the atmosphere.The big question is not whether this will happen, but how fast it goes. This is where the bomb test curve comes into play.

Read more in False Alarm 7.6 Carbon Occupy Gets equilibria

Bomb Test curve shows how the levels of radioactive 14C-carbon dioxide has varied over time.What has happened is that the atmospheric nuclear tests, as at Bikini Atoll as seen in the picture, generated large amounts of radioactive C14 emissions. As long as these atmospheric bomb test went so step therefore the content of this through its radioactivity directly measurable carbon drastically over the natural level (due to the formation of C14 due to cosmic rays). But finally came the great powers agreed to stop the atmospheric bomb tests, and so ceased thus these issues. In Figure 1 we see bomb test curve in the upper diagram, which is Figure 31 in the False Alarms, and a comparison of the bomb test curve and Bern model in the bottom, which is Figure 34 in False alaram.

Solomon et al (2009) have used the Bern model simulations of how carbon dioxide levels will evolve under different assumptions about the issues. They have assumed that emissions first increase roughly at the same accelerated rate as today that at a certain carbon concentration suddenly cease.In Figure 2, we see a couple of charts from their article.

In the upper diagram in Figure 2, which is part of Figure 1 in Solomon and others, have been simulated the carbon dioxide content in the air will increase if emissions increase logarithmically with 2% per year to a certain peak value, several different cases, whereupon emissions ceases. The curves after the peak value, which thus assumes that emissions have ceased, are analogous to bomb test curve.

In the lower graph, which is Figure S2 in Solomon and others, announces title that shows decay (U.S. falloff) of the human contribution to atmospheric concentrations (CO2 curves are represented by a gray cone) after the anthropogenic emissions ceased. This description matches exactly with bomb test curve that just shows the decay of the human contribution to C14 carbon dioxide in the atmosphere after emissions stopped by the prohibition of nuclear tests in the atmosphere.

In the lower graph in Figure 2 has avklingningsförloppen illustrated with the same sort of scale on the y-axis (0-1 or percentage) of the bomb test curve after the introduction into the atmosphere has ceased, not only carbon dioxide, but to several different topics. The carbon avklingningsförlopp varies according Bern model is dependent on the added amount and therefore illustrated as an ostrich.

These curves according to Solomon and others would thus equally be simulations with Bern model of the C14 carbon dioxide from the bomb sample decays in the atmosphere. To those of Solomon and others called simulations of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, decay (U.S. falloff) in the atmosphere makes no difference (although the radioactive 14C-carbon dioxide from bomb tests, incidentally anthropogenic). It is truly remarkable, then, therefore, that the simulated curves of Bern model differs so sharply against the observed bomb test curve as illustrated in Figure 1, lower graph, Figure 34 from Gösta Pettersson's book False Alarm.

Decay curves can be interpreted with the IPCC's view of the carbon cycle, Figure 3 from IPCC 2007 .

We have a faster decay in the beginning of the Bern model curve. The faster part can be interpreted as the anthropogenic (according Solomons terminology) carbon dioxide is rapidly coming to close to equilibrium only between atmosphere and ocean surface layer, and then somewhat less rapidly between the three reservoirs atmosphere, the ocean's surface and the biosphere on land. The slow continuation corresponds to anthropogenic molecules slowly leaking from ythavet to deep sea and it is this that is the very slow progress in Bern model that enables a portion of the carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for more than a thousand years.

The most notable is that the decay curve of the observations, ie. bomb test curve in the lower graph in Figure 2, no way supports such an interpretation. The observations of bomb test curve says avklingningsförloppet much faster towards a complete removal of excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This means that the Bern model and the theory of the so-called Revelle effect limiting slope is not consistent with the observations. This effect was launched by Revelle and Suess (1957).They also based their studies on the effects of anthropogenic carbon in the C14 released from the atmosphere to the ocean, but not on bombprovsskurvan because it did not exist yet.

According to the Revelle effect so can the sea for a long time to admit only about one tenth of its share of the excess carbon dioxide in the final balance due to the peculiarities of chemical equilibria present in the carbon dioxide-carbonate-water system. But there are as bomb test curve no indication whatsoever that this Revelle effect work the way the theory says. In fact, according Revelle effect at least 10 - 20% of the emissions remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years. What this disagreement between simulations and observations is due is another thing I can not give a good answer to (a guess, is the theory of deterministic to describe what happens in a complex and chaotic system), but we must face the fact, observations and theory contrary to each other in this case.

Keeling curve for koldioxidhaltens development conforms nor indeed the Solomons with several participants simulations. In the upper diagram in Figure 2 rises from Bern model simulated carbon concentration at an accelerating pace when emissions increase as they have done in reality and which is what the simulations assume. However, as shown in Figure 4, from Wood for Trees , then carbon dioxide levels increased linearly over the last twenty years.

The discussion here about the role of carbon dioxide can be seen in a wider context of the IPCC's view of how much anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions means the climate has been challenged by professors Murry Salby and Ole Humlum. I have read a textbook on atmospheric physics at the graduate level by Murry Salby and has gained a trust in his abilities so his challenge of the IPCC's approach is nothing that I can easily dismiss.

Read more: Is the IPCC argument for carbon dioxide increase is due to human sustainable?

Finally, we note that the theory Solomons with several participants simulations based on strong conflict with the observations of bomb test curve. But neither Keeling curve consistent with their simulations. These are two of several other examples of where climate science has difficulty in theoretical simulations that go together with the observations. These are important warning signs that you have to use findings from climate science theory with great caution. Gösta Pettersson has even written the following in the preface to his book, False Alarm, where he makes a clear statement:

The book's title was initially fitted with a question mark. It stressed when I along the way became convinced that the current state of scientific knowledge does not give any reason for concern that our emissions of greenhouse gases are being induce catastrophic climate change. One should not cry "wolf" whenever you see a four-legged animal.

References

Susan Solomon, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Reto Knutti, and Pierre Fried Ling Stein, 2009: "Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions" . PNAS 106: 1704-1709. http://www.pnas.org cgi.doi10.1073pnas.0812721106.

Gösta Pettersson, 2013. False Alarm , published on the Web.

Revelle R, Suess HE, 1957. Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean and the question of an Increase of atmospheric CO2 During the past decades. Tellus 9:18-27.