Thursday, May 30, 2013
New paper rules out catastrophic global warming predictions of IPCC
A new paper published in Nature Climate Change claims the probability of catastrophic global warming of 6 °C or more is much less than claimed by the IPCC, while the probability of a 2 °C global–mean temperature increase by 2100 is increased. However, the authors admit that the most important factors of "Climate sensitivity, the response of the carbon cycle and aerosol effects remain highly uncertain..." Furthermore, the paper was written in June 2012, prior to recent papers that have found climate sensitivity to be much less than claimed by the IPCC. The authors also assume stratospheric aerosols are man-made, which was disproven by a paper published this week. Thus, the probability of even a 2 °C warming is much less than claimed.
Posted by MS at 10:38 AM