Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
Projected changes in late 21st century tropical cyclone frequency in thirteen coupled climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
K. J. Tory,1 S. S. Chand,2 J. L. McBride,1,3 H. Ye,1 and R. A. Dare1
1 Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
2 School of Science, Information Technology & Engineering, University of Ballarat, Ballarat, Victoria, Australia.
TC detections in eight of the thirteen models reproduce observed TC formation numbers and geographic distributions reasonably well, with annual numbers within ±50% of observed. TC detections in the remaining five models are particularly low in number (9—27% of observed). The eight models with a reasonable TC climatology all project decreases in global TC [tropical cyclone] frequency varying between 3 and 15 %. Large inter-model and inter-basin variations in magnitude and sign are present, with the greatest variations in the Northern Hemisphere basins. These results are consistent with results from earlier generation climate models, and thus confirm the robustness of coupled model projections of globally-reduced TC [tropical cyclone] frequency.