Tuesday, May 6, 2014

National Climate Assessment claims sea level rise up to 11X faster than past 2 centuries (which show no acceleration)

The National Climate Assessment Report released by the White House today claims sea level rise "future scenarios range from 0.66 feet to 6.6 feet in 2100," with 1-4 feet most likely by the year 2100. This assumes sea level rise will accelerate up to 11 times faster than the current rate of only ~4-7 inches per century, even though observations have found no evidence of acceleration over the past 203 years, which means there is no evidence of a human influence on sea levels. In addition, the most recent data shows that sea level rise has decelerated 31% since 2002 [Cazenave et al 2014]. 

The National Climate Assessment Report sea level scare is contrary to tide gauge and satellite observations, and based upon overheated climate model projections which have already been falsified at confidence levels of 95% and 98%. In addition, climate models falsely assume that longwave infrared radiation [LWIR] from greenhouse gases can heat the oceans, but LWIR cannot significantly heat the oceans to contribute to sea level rise. 

Major tide gauge studies find sea level rise over the past 2 centuries of only 1-2.4 mm/yr [3.9-9.4 inches per century, ave 1.7 mm/yr or 6.6 inches per century]:

Sea Level Rise (mm/yr)
Error (mm/yr)Data Used (years)# of Tide GaugesReferences
1.0-1807-20091,197Beenstock et al (2014)
1.7±0.21900-2009>38 since 1900Church & White (2011)
1.9±0.41961-2009>190 since 1960Church & White (2011)
1.43±0.141881-1980152Barnett (1984)
2.27±0.231930-1980152Barnett (1984)
1.2±0.31880-1982130Gornitz and Lebedeff (1987)
2.4±0.91920-197040Peltier and Tushingham (1989)
1.75±0.131900-197984Trupin and Wahr (1990)
1.7±0.5--Nakiboglu and Lambeck (1991)
1.8±0.11880-198021Douglas (1991)
1.62±0.381807-1988213Unal and Ghil (1995)

From the NCA Report:

Note: 2 red lines were added to the graph above from the NCA report. The lower line shows a linear extrapolation of the sea level rise over the past century of 3 - 8 inches per century. Via the report: “Figure shows estimated, observed, and possible amounts of global sea level rise from 1800 to 2100, relative to the year 2000. Estimates from proxy data (for example, based on sediment records) are shown in red (1800-1890, pink band shows uncertainty), tide gauge data in blue for 1880-2009, and satellite observations are shown in green from 1993 to 2012. The future scenarios range from 0.66 feet to 6.6 feet in 2100. These scenarios are not based on climate model simulations [not true], but rather reflect the range of possible scenarios based on other kinds of scientific studies. The orange line at right shows the currently projected range of sea level rise of 1 to 4 feet by 2100, which falls within the larger risk-based scenario range. The large projected range reflects uncertainty about how glaciers and ice sheets will react to the warming ocean, the warming atmosphere, and changing winds and currents. As seen in the observations, there are year-to-year variations in the trend.” (U.S. Global Change Research Program)

From a tweet today by Steven Goddard

From Cazenave et al 2014. Rate of sea level rise has decelerated 31% since 2002.
References finding either no acceleration or a deceleration of sea level rise during the 20th and 21st centuries:
Chen et al 2013  
JM Gregory et al Journal of Climate 2012 
M Beenstock et al 2013 
NOAA 2005-2012 Sea Level Budget 
Dean & Houston 2011 & 2013 
Scafetta 2013 
Holgate 2007 
Boretti 2012 
Morner 2004 
Jevrejeva et al 2006 & 2008 
Wöppelmann et al 2009 
Roemmich et al 2013 
IPCC 2007: 
"no long-term acceleration of sea level has been identified using 20th-century data alone."  
IPCC 2013: 
"It is likely that GMSL [Global Mean Sea Level] rose between 1920 and 1950 at a rate comparable to that observed between 1993 and 2010"

...the authors find that sea level rise is a localized rather than global phenomenon, with 61 percent of tide gauge records demonstrating no change in sea levels, 4 percent showing a decrease, and a minority of 35 percent showing a rise. This implies relative sea level change is primarily related to subsidence or post-glacial rebound (land height changes) rather than melting ice or steric sea level changes (thermal expansion from warming). Steric sea level rise from thermal expansion turned negative in 2007. 
Sea levels during the last interglacial were 31 feet higher than the present, and Greenland 8 degrees C warmer than the present, without anthropogenic forcing. There is no evidence suggesting the current interglacial is any different.


  1. but it is continuing to rise ...

    1. That's what happens during interglacials, ice melts and sea level rises naturally until the next glaciation.

  2. Morner’s latest paper selects a site where there hasn’t been any uplift or subsidence over past 8000 years, finds 0.81 mm/year sea level rise since 1890, with no acceleration: