Even RealClimate indirectly admits IR from greenhouse gases cannot significantly heat the oceans. This false premise of IR heating of the oceans in the climate models falsifies the conclusion of this paper that "87% of the observed trend in the upper 700 m since 1970 is induced by human activity."
In addition, the climate model forcing assumptions have been falsified at confidence levels of 95-98%+, thereby also falsifying the conclusions of this paper. Climate models are also unable to simulate natural ocean oscillations such as ENSO and the AMO, which have large effects on thermosteric sea level changes [from thermal expansion], thus the models cannot be used to separate natural variability from anthropogenic causes.
Sea levels have been rising for 20,000 years since the last ice age, and there is no evidence of acceleration over the past 204 years. Therefore, there is no evidence of a human contribution to sea level rise. In addition, recent data indicates a 31% deceleration of sea level rise since 2002 despite an unrelenting rise in CO2.
Quantifying anthropogenic and natural contributions to thermosteric sea level rise
Marta Marcos and Angel Amores
Changes in thermosteric sea level at decadal and longer time scales respond to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability of the climate system. Disentangling these contributions is essential to quantify the impact of human activity in the past and to anticipate thermosteric sea level rise under global warming. Climate models, fed with radiative forcing, display a large spread of outputs with limited correspondence with the observationally based estimates of thermosteric sea level during the last decades of the twentieth century. Here we extract the common signal of climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 using a signal-to-noise maximizing empirical orthogonal function technique for the period 1950–2005. Our results match the observed trends, improving the widely used approach of multimodel ensemble averaging. We then compute the fraction of the observed thermosteric sea level rise of anthropogenic origin and conclude that 87% of the observed trend in the upper 700 m since 1970 is induced by human activity.