More benefits to global warming and inconvenient truths for climate alarmists:
A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds that global warming weakens tropical Atlantic cyclones and also tends to steer them away from landfall, harmlessly into the open ocean. According to the authors, "As the climate warms, the models project a weakening of the subtropical easterlies [wind patterns that form tropical cyclones] as well as an eastward shift in genesis location. This results in a statistically significant decrease in straight-moving (westward) storm tracks of 
5.5% and an increase in recurving (open ocean) tracks of 5.5%. These track changes decrease tropical cyclone counts over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean by 1-1.5 per decade and increase tropical cyclone counts over the central Atlantic by 1-1.5 per decade."
5.5% and an increase in recurving (open ocean) tracks of 5.5%. These track changes decrease tropical cyclone counts over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean by 1-1.5 per decade and increase tropical cyclone counts over the central Atlantic by 1-1.5 per decade."
Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks
| Abstract |
|---|
We examine the change in tropical cyclone (TC) tracks that result from projected changes in the large-scale steering flow and genesis location due to increasing greenhouse gases. Tracks are first simulated using a Beta and Advection Model (BAM) and NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis winds for all TCs that formed in the North Atlantic main development region (MDR) for the period 1950-2010. Changes in genesis location and large-scale steering flow are then estimated from an ensemble mean of 17 CMIP3 models for the A1b emissions scenario. The BAM simulations are then repeated with these changes to estimate how the TC tracks would respond to increased greenhouse gases. As the climate warms, the models project a weakening of the subtropical easterlies as well as an eastward shift in genesis location. This results in a statistically significant decrease in straight-moving (westward) storm tracks of 5.5% and an increase in recurving (open ocean) tracks of 5.5%. These track changes decrease TC counts over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean by 1-1.5 per decade and increase TC counts over the central Atlantic by 1-1.5 per decade. Changes in the large-scale steering flow account for a vast majority of the projected changes in TC trajectories.
5.5% and an increase in recurving (open ocean) tracks of 5.5%. These track changes decrease TC counts over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean by 1-1.5 per decade and increase TC counts over the central Atlantic by 1-1.5 per decade. Changes in the large-scale steering flow account for a vast majority of the projected changes in TC trajectories.
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