The first paper, published in the Journal of Climate, projects "Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin." The second paper, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, projects a "significant decrease" of extreme cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and "Overall, CMIP5 models project larger decrease in storm track activity in the [Northern Hemisphere] troposphere, especially over North America in winter, where [sea level pressure] variance as well as cyclone frequency and amplitude are all projected to decrease significantly." The papers add to many other peer-reviewed papers projecting that cyclones and storms such as Sandy will become less frequent and less severe in the future, despite the protests of uninformed climate alarmists.
Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multi-model ensemble climate change experiments
Philip G. Sansom*David B. StephensonChristopher A. T. FerroGiuseppe ZappaLen Shaffrey
The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model-dependent. In such situations, the weighted multi-model mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases.
Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multi-model ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of non-zero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response.
The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model-dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin.
CIMP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming
Edmund K. M. Chang, Yanjuan Guo, Xiaoming Xia