Tuesday, January 8, 2013

UK Met Office cuts projected 2017 temperature by 38%

The big story of the day is that the UK Met Office has cut its projection for global temperature in 2017 by "20 percent." However, graphs supplied by the UK Met Office actually show a 38% cut in projected 2017 temperature anomaly, from a ~ 0.7C anomaly projected last year, to the new projection of  0.43C.
Added vertical red lines show projected 2017 temperature anomaly from last year (top graph) of 0.7C to the new projection of 0.43C.
As physicist Dr. Clive Best notes in a post today

"What is really going on here is that their sophisticated climate models are being continuously tuned so as  to “backcast” and  agree with past temperature data. There has been no warming for 17 years. As a result the parameters are now showing little AGW at all for the next 10 years. 
A scientist should ask the following question.  If predictions of global climate models from just 2 years ago have now been invalidated by the data, how can we now have any faith in new predictions made with the same models but with various fudge factors added?"


  1. I would love to reference your point that the actual reduction in forcast warming is 38%. Who do I give credit to?

    1. Please just credit the Hockey Schtick blog